SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy

[Paparazzo]

I've seen the blog of sotdoc (http://www.sotdoc.co.uk) and found very intriguing the idea of making profit with a different point of view compared to the algorithms that generate in-play odds. Basically the set of strategy are based on the Dixon and Nevo/Ritov theory for which “a first goal occurence could either expedite or impede the next goal scoring, depending on the time it was scored. Moreover, once a goal is scored, another goal becomes more and more likely whether the goal was scored or conceded” So I tried to make a comparison of data in the English PL (seasons from 95/96 to 98/99 versus 12/13-14/15)to see if it really can lead to profit. What I've noticed is that perhaps he is spotting an emerging trend, or maybe recent fata asre somehow gone strange. I expected a bias in the same way in both periods, but it didn't seem to be shown by the data Effect of an early away goal and 0-1 HT: 12/15 data suggest that there's a bias in favour of the away team, but 95/99 data suggest the opposite.. Effect of an early home goal and 1-0 HT: 12/15 data suggest that there's a bias in favour of higher production of goals, but 95/99 data suggest the opposite.. Effect of an early home goal and 1-1 HT: In the 95/99 this lead to a draw bias but the most recent ones show no effect Effect of an early away goal and 0-1 HT: 12/15 data suggest that there's a bias in favour of higher production of goals, but 95/99 data do not. So my question is can these conclusion be explained by a change in playing style of the recent years or shall we expect to have a shift in the future data? I tried to contact Johnny through it's contact form in his blog a few times but never received a reply. I'd love to hear about him or somebody using these strategy for an exchange of ideas. Cheers

[Gambling Gorilla]

Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy It might be worth seeing if the pre-match over/under 2.5 goals odds vary in the data you're looking at too. Over the years, they've meddled with the balls so that they move more, etc. which could explain the higher number of goals in the more recent seasons.

[thecurlyone1]

Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy

I tried to contact Johnny through it's contact form in his blog a few times but never received a reply. Cheers

get on twitter mate , hes a tweeting machine 139k tweets .... @JonnyGrossmark

[Paparazzo]

Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy I joined twitter just today. Sorry for the OT and stupide question, but how can I send a private message to him? I can only tweet in his page with only a few characters... not enough to address my questions...

[harry_rag]

Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy I think you can only send a private message to someone who is following you but they're limited to 140 characters as well anyway. You'll have to obtain another way of contacting him if you want to avoid that but at least you could ask for it via Twitter.

[Paparazzo]

Re: SOTDOC Johnny Grossman's early goal strategy I will try... Thanks for your suggestions

[Guest]

If we look at the Premier League  early away goal 2008-2009 - 2014-2015 >


2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 59

 

Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75%

 

Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42%

0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48%

0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95%

 

0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11& 35% 21% 0%

 

0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5%