Rio on the level

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Not a day for going in heavy. 2.30 Strike up the Band is the obvious one here but I've gone for Masta Plasta for the placepot, scooted home in good style at Newcastle LTO. 3.05 Something Exciting looks to boost the Oaks form here, Silk & Scarlet will be more at home on this track & can get closer to her today. The one I like is Fashionable 15pts @ 6/1, won by 5l on her first ever start over 8f at Newmarket despite running green. Ran on well to take a 10f listed, again at Newmarket & can improve again for this step up to 12f. Should handle the ground whatever it turns out to be. 3.45 The French horse Westerner is fit & won his last five but there are doubts over the last two winners of this Papineau & Mr Dinos. No such worries about Vinnie Roe 20pts @ 9/2 who was just touched off in this three years ago & can run a big race in his final season. Percussionist 10pts @ 12/1 is another I like, only a 4yo just failed to catch Franklins Garden FTO & he can improve at this trip. 4.20 After the Hunt cup I'm looking for something in the low half of the draw. Motashaar, Notability & Postgraduate should all figure from their single number draws but are priced accordingly. Enforcer 10pts @ 14/1 is in stall 9 & likes to race up with the pace, he can give me a run for the money. The one at the bottom, Adoration 5pts @ 70, Betfair was a beaten fav at Sandown only six days ago, likes to front run & if able to get towards the lead from stall 13 this can go well at a huge price. 4.55 Very uninspiring race this & have taken Indigo Cat who's run very green to date for the placepot. 5.30 Fantasy Believer is returning to form but most of his best form is over 6f, tends to come late. Cardinal Venture on the other hand front runs & is drawn in stall 2. So it's one of each style in case the placepots still going. Placepot 1x1x2x2x1x2= 8 lines @ 1pt= 8pts staked + 60pts win bets. Good luck to all today, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level No joy at all today a loss of 68pts on the day.Stakes 807pts returns 745.5pts Profit/loss -61.5pts. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Another difficult looking day. 2.30 Rumplestiltskin will be a hot fav here but has drawn stall 1 & could need to get to the middle/near side. Spinning Queen is in 12 & won by 4l on her only start. A leave alone race this. 3.05 Only five runners here. The Geezer didn't handle the track in the Derby & the second to Motivator in the Dante is much the best form. The Stoute horse Mountain High has been given plenty of time & could be anything. Plea Bargain is another who ran a good race in a group 2 in France & will like the step up in trip. No bet here either. 3.45 Classic form usually holds sway here. Virginia Waters could have excuses for defeats in the Irish 1000 (ground, draw) & the Oaks (track, trip) but I still think she might need a break. Interesting that Fallon has chosen to ride Damson who still has a bit to prove herself (will she stay a mile?) Maids Causeway will be thereabouts but Karen's Caper, whos been given a nice break since the Newmarket 1000 & who saw too much daylight from her wide draw may prove best of the classic form. Discuss was talked of for the Guineas but wasn't ready in time, her form is nothing but she also could be anything. Another race to watch. 4.20 Looking for a low draw here. Promotion is in stall 1 but is usually held up & Kinane may have to make too much use of him early to hold a position. The top one Simple Exchange is in 5 but again is a hold up horse. Good form in the States though & should go well. Mullens Bay 20pts @ 8/1 is in stall 4 & steps back up in trip here after fair runs over 8f. Seems to race mid division & may get a better position than the other two & get first run. 4.55 Almighty 20pts @ 11/2 had to do too much too early to get to the front in the Derby & this track & grade will suit him much better. I can see Fallon trying to ride one of those races from the front like he did on Yeats in the Coronation Cup, a nice steady early pace & wind it up as they hit the straight. 5.30 This looks between Quizzenne & National Trust 20pts @ 11/2. Both trainers have excellent records in this but I've gone with the Stoute horse. It's a well bred type who won a Windsor maiden in good style LTO & looks to have been kept fresh for this. I've been trying to put a four line placepot on as well but can't seem to get on for some reason, I'll have another go now. Good luck to all today, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level It seems they have power cut problems at the Tote, just put a four line placepot on by phone. 1. Spinng Queen 2. Moutain High & Plea Bargain 3. Karen's Caper 4. Mullins Bay 5. Almighty 6. National Trust & Quizzenne. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Another losing day yesterday down 64pts. Stakes 871pts returns 745.5pts Profit/loss -125.5pts. 2.30 Strike up the Band makes a quick return & will be a warm order in this easier grade. Gone for Titus Alone here in as the placepot selection, hope it lasts longer than yesterdays. 3.05 Like the Edward vii yesterday a poor turn out. Doyen won this last year but lacks a run this season. Gamut was second to the much improved Alkaased on his return & the older Stoute horses always need respect & interesting that Fallon is on top. I'm half tempted to back this but the fast ground puts me off. Put Gamut & Powerscourt in the p/p here. 3.45 Had an eye on patavellian but this one & Steenberg are both non runners on the fast ground. Etlaala 30pts @ 11/2 goes on the fast ground. Failed to stay a mile earlier this season & was dropped back to 5f in the Temple stakes LTO. Not well drawn there & stuck behind horses when trying to get a run & any chance had gone, Decent draw here & hoping for a bit of luck in running. Byron 10pts @ 14/1 drops back to 6f for the first time since 2yo days & also goes on fast ground & at the price is worth a bet. 4.20 Iffraaj has won both starts this season with ease & must go well but Soldiers Tale 30pts @ 11/2 did me a favour here at the May meeting & I'm hoping for a repeat. Only had three starts & yet to race on this ground, also drawn stall 1 but overcame this LTO & made up ground late on to win. Continent 2pts @ 95 Betfair has shown little in four starts this year but is a duel group 1 winner in a handicap & the price is huge. Soldiers Tale & Iffraaj in the p/p. 4.55 trying to get on the right Stoute horse for a change here, he has a decent record in this & Notable Guest 30pts @ 11/2 looks his first choice here. Kept fresh for this after 10f FTO win at Newmarket, Kinane whos riding as good as ever is aboard. Interesting that Richard Hughes is not on Notable Guest whos owned by Khalid Abdulla & instead rides Saintly Rachel. This one was third in a Cork group 3 LTO, keeping on well without getting to the leader & is one for the p/p. 5.30 Cover Up whos won this twice & goes well round here is the one for the p/p if by some miracle its still going. Placepot 1x2x2x2x2x1= 16 lines @ 0.5pts= 8pts + 102pts win bets = 110pts staked. Good luck to all today, Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Rio on the level Good luck Rio :ok

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Thanks AK Soldiers Tale did not run so the stake on the day was 80pts. Notable Guest did the job & the return was 195pts, I did think there might have been a rule 4 but having checked there wasn't so the profit on the day was 115pts. Can't complain with three winning days out of five & an overall profit of 149pts. Stakes 951pts returns 940.5pts Profit/loss -10.5pts. Probably have a few days to charge the battries now. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Back in the swing after a nice rest. Shame about Shamardal, I still think he would have been pushed to beat Motivator in a strong run 10f race but we'll never know now. With Footstepsinthesand & North Light both also retired & Ouija Boards future uncertain it just shows how fragile these creatures are. I'm hoping Motivator wins in style today, racing needs it's superstars, no bet in this race though. Sandown 2.05 Some old stagers here, the draw usually plays a part but there are only eight runners. The Tatling has good course form but doesn't look quite the force of old. Bahamian Pirate would prefer softer ground or 6f & Celtic Mill needs things to fall just right. Orientor goes on fast ground but is better with cut & Boogie Street may just not last home over this stiff 5f. Resplendent Glory 40pts @ 11/4 is the new kid on the block. This is his toughest task to date but he's improving at a fast rate & this stiff 5f is right up his street. Looks a pretty straight forward sort too, no need to get him covered up etc & he can continue to rise up the sprinting ranks. Sandown 2.35 Eden Rock is on a recovery mission following his flop in the Hunt Cup when drawn wide & never a factor. Came with a late run to win in style at Goodwood before but has gone up 14lbs & is another who needs things to drop just right. Plenty of old timers in this race too but the one I like here is Momtic 30pts @ 5/1. A winner & good second over C&D this one scooted home over a furlong further at Epsom LTO, put up 8lb for that win, will need a career best to win here but is an improving type in a field of mainly exposed horses. Haydock 2.20 Since this race was opened to older horses a few years ago the older runners have the better record. Punctilious looks the best of the three 4yo's here but I fancy the 3yo's to do better today. Seven Magicians could be anything but the form is nothing special & I prefer the chances of the Gosden pair Twyla Tharp & Playful Act 30pts @ 3/1. Twyla Tharp was just touched off a short head by Thakafaat in a group 2 at the Royal meeting & must run well here. I'm going with Playful Act though, this one was well fancied for the classics over the winter but has taken time to come to hand this year. Winner of the May Hill & the group 1 fillies mile the step up to this mile & a half should suit her perfectly. Slight worry over the length of time off the track but she is reported to be working well at home now. Haydock 3.30 Orphan is consistant & improving but the run LTO of Wrighty Almighty 50pts @ 7/4 catches the eye. The stable is in fine form & he can maintain his 100% record here. Good luck to all today, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level A good day all round yesterday, two winners from four bets. Like everybody else I thought Resplendent Glory had got done on the line so it was a pleasant suprise when he was delared the winner. It looked to me like he wasn't letting himself stretch out fully on the firm ground which probably was the reason Motivator got beat later as well. Horrible fall from Dettori & Celtic Mill & it was good to see the horse get up in one piece & just a collar bone break for Frankie, it could have been much worse. Playful Act looked to have the race in comfort at Haydock but tied up close home & there was only a head to spare at the line. Conections are looking at the Irish Oaks next but this may come a bit soon for her I think & she could 'bounce', we'll see. Momtic ran a good race but failed by a head in the big handicap but at least I got a run for the money which is more than I can say for Wrighty Almighty who ran a stinker. Stakes on the day 150pts Returns 270pts profit 120pts So far then. Stakes 1101pts returns 1210.5pts Profit/loss +109.5pts. Full steam ahead to the July meeting. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the level :clap rio - in profit say no more, well done yesterday looking forward to a great weeks racing as well

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Thanks bowles, these shifts I work always seem to have me at work on the first two days of the July meeting :sad Falmouth stakes. Upgraded to group 1 level for the first time last year the first running lived up to it's new status with the dual guineas & Coronation stakes winner Attraction bested by the high class Soviet Song. The best of the classic generation looks to be Karens caper who was just touched off by the brave Maids Causeway in this years Coronation. The winner though I feel will come from the older brigade, Soviet Song tries for back to back wins & at her best it would be on, but she has had an interupted start to the season & needs to turn round Windsor Forest form with Peeress & Sundrop I've always liked sundrop & thought she had the Royal race won but struggled on the false ground that day, Peeress is better on soft & not quite group 1 class. I'm going with the much travelled Alexander Goldrun 30pts @ SP, whos won group 1's in Hong Kong, France & at home in Ireland. There seems to be a debate that there may be a muddling pace but Sundrop, Cape Columbine, Peeress. Soviet Song & Penkenna Princess all like to race up with the pace & the slight doubt is the drop back in trip from 10f. This is one of the stiffest tracks around though & her turn of foot can see her come late to take this. I've decided to take the SP & not the 3/1 this evening, she may start slightly longer as the home brigade are usually favoured. I shall be avoiding the result & watching the recording tomorrow evening. Good luck to all tomorrow, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level A fine performance today from Soviet Song, right back to her very smart best. A fair run from Alexander Goldrun but it looks like 10f is her trip. a loss of 30pts on the day. Stakes 1131pts returns 1210.5pts Profit/loss +79.5pts. Having had a look at tomorrows card I've decided to leave alone till Thursday when I will have more time to study. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Running late today, just the one bet Somnus 30pts @ 6/1. Can only echo the thoughts of Bowles in his thread, triple group 1 winner who has the ground he needs today & he can hold off the upcoming brigade Iffraaj & Soldier's Tale. missed the bigger prices but 6/1 is still fair odds. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the level Rio - Somnus like so many others in the race ran like it was 5f, i noticed the winner & 3rd have form over further so maybe the pace was wrong & those fast sprinters just blew out too early. Somnus started at 4's in the end so we nicked the big prices (i had 9's last night!). Would be wary of backing the winner again in same circumstances.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level You may be right but Somnus won a group 1 in France over 7f last season & really should have run better than that. All Kinane's said is "disappointing", which doesn't tell us much. The horse usually needs a run & I'm wondering if 57 days off was a bit too much. Oh well ever onwards. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Decided to take myself off to York today. Already had a couple of bets at early prices. 2.10 Curtail 40pts @ 11/4, the other bookies with odds up are going a bit shorter than Ladbrokes, it'll probably drift now but really should go of around 2/1-9/4. Just got caught close home at Windsor LTO & the winner as since won a listed race. Races up with the pace which suits here & the drop back to 5f should be no problem. 3.55 Taken 14.0 to 10pts with Betfair Zero Tolerance & will be having a bit on Woodcracker on the course, both have the required single figure draw & like to race up with the pace. For the rest of the card, 2.40 Pin required, I'll go with Wyatt Earp & Sir Desmond to small stakes. 3.20 Lost Soldier Three ought to take this but will be a short price. 4.25 Another pin sticker race, small bets on Vicious Warrior & Tsaroxy here. 5.00 might be on the way home by now but I usually do a placepot & I'll put Romantic Evening in here. Not stopping for the last whatever happens. Must go train to catch, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Remembered yesterday why I stopped going to York on saturdays. The Ebor meeting is busy enough but yesterday was bedlam, loads of people on race trips intent on seeing how much they can drink in a day so getting a beer was not easy & I draw the line at queuing up for a pee. Managed to get off the course with a very slight profit due to a couple of short price winners, I'm still wondering how Fallon got Lost Soldier Three home in front. Don't count that for the purpose of this thread though so a 50pt loss on the day, at least I was right about the price on Curtail. Stakes 1211pts returns 1210.5pts Profit/loss -0.5pts. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Windsor 7.05 Most of these are stepping up in trip here. Both Group Captains wins have come over 10f, one on the aw at Lingfield & the other off 75 on good to firm at Sandown. Races off 79 here & I'm not sure this one will be suited by the trip tonight. Planet is 8lb higher than previous highest winning mark & 11lb higher than when winning over C&D earlier this season, others may have more improvement. Scriptwriter has plenty of weight for the bare form but should improve for the step up in trip, the boys in blue are not pulling any trees up at the moment though. Prince Vector 40pts @ 11/4 looked unlucky here LTO over 10f when not getting a clear run but flying at the finish but just failed to get up on handicap debut. Put up 3lb for that but looks to be an improving sort who with be helped by the extra furlong & a half tonight. All the best, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level No hard luck story for Prince vector, Scriptwriter won in some style & could be worth watching for again. Stakes 1251pts returns 1210.5pts Profit/loss -40.5pts. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Curragh 4.05 Dash to the Top & Playful Act have similar profiles, both were slow to come to hand & made belated returns to action this season. Playful Act beat Dash to the Top just under 2l in the Fillies mile last season. Took the Lancashire Oaks FTO when just holding on as she got tired close home. This should have brought her on for today but I said at the time that she could "bounce" if coming out again too soon & this is enough to put me off today. Dash to the Top took a Newcastle listed event on return despite playing up in the paddock & unseating her rider. Had to be walked to the start & with the extra fuss of a Group 1 event might lose the race before the off today. Pictavia represents the Epsom Oaks form, neither she or the winner Eswarah have run since but those that have are not exactly franking the form. The runner up Something Exciting was around 2l behind Thakafaat at Royal York & that one goes here but again that form looks devalued by the run of the York runner up Twyla Tharp behind Playful Act at Haydock. Shawanda 40pts @ 9/2 as been added to the field at a cost of 40,000 euros. Yet to race at this level but looks an improving type with good runs over this sort of trip. Latest win was on good ground & this will be the fastest surface she has raced on so far but it's unlikely to be really firm & she can take this on route to the Prix Vermeille. Rio.

[Khartoum]

Re: Rio on the level Top call Rio.:clap Very impressive winner.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Thanks Khartoum, that was a top performance & I would think that would make her the best mile & a half filly in Europe. A clash with Eswarah would be a race to savour but I suspect that may not happen unless they meet in the Arc. To date then, Stakes 1291pts returns 1430.5pts Profit/loss +139.5pts. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Back after a break for work. Soft going at Goodwood where the big race is the Sussex stakes. Soviet Song is the worthy favourite to take this prize again but all but one of her wins have come on good or faster ground. The one I like here is Proclamation 30 pts @ 7/2, flopped when tried over an extended 10f in the Dante, has since won twice when dropped back in trip. A classy winner of the Jersey stakes at the Royal meeting from a terrible draw, this one is improving all the time & can step up to this group 1 level here. Rio.

[DC]

Re: Rio on the level :clap Nice one mate, must admit to having a slice myself. WELL DONE!

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level I'll update the totals a little later as I have to go out now. Not betting at Goodwood today, however I've just had 20pts @ 12/1 Calorando in the big race at Galway. In off a light weight, over two stones better off with Accordian Etoile from the last run in a conditions hurdle & the peerless Ruby Walsh on top. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Calorando ran a fair fourth yesterday so the standings are, Stakes 1341pts returns 1565.5pts Profit/loss +224.5pts. At Goodwood today in the first, Wunderwood ran a shocker LTO & there are doubts about the going for this one but all but two runs have been on good or faster. Dubai Success looks hard to win with. Orange Touch has course form & goes on the ground but pulled too hard FTO this season & has not run since. The class act is Mamool 30pts @ 7/2, winning form at a higher level than this, can make the running & acts on the ground & can give a boost to the stables older horses. 2.50 Usually this race goes to an improving 3yo but that profile doesn't fit most of these here. Shohrah makes seasonal bow having won her maiden at Ascot FTO & then a good fifth in the fillies mile there when last seen. Yet to race on this ground but she could be the best of the 3yo's. The German raider Anna Monda is a front runner who goes on the ground & will try to make every post a winning one over this 7f. hopefully this will set the race up for Lucky Spin 40pts @ 9/4 who is back to her best trip here & will like the cut. She did flop in this race last year but that was on good to firm & she looks the improver in the race. 3.25 Usually a high draw is need in this big field handicap & the softer going may cut the bias somewhat but high is still the best place to be. Cesare is in stall 6, likes to race prominent but may have to use up too much to get an early position or drop in behind & hope things fall his way & is a skinny price. The same applies to Kamanda Laugh who is in stall 1 & Pedrillo from stall 5, this one from the Prescott stable re-appears here & must be respected but pulled too hard when last seen as favourite in the Cambridgeshire. Elliots World drops back in trip here after two runs over 10f. Likes to be up there & can lead from stall 15 which should give a tow to Unshakable 20pts @ 8/1, who is drawn next door in 16. Good run LTO in second to Kamanda Laugh when drawn on the unfavoured side, slipping back down to a winning mark again & can run a big race here. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level A good day today with two winners from three bets. Lucky Spin looked like she had come to win her race as well but folded up a little tamely in front. Still a nice profit on the day. Staked 90pts return 315pts profit 225pts To date then, Stakes 1431pts returns 1880.5pts Profit/loss +449.5pts. Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio on the level nice one Rio, keep up the good work:clap

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level Not a day for going in large, most of the stuff on C4 look trappy affairs, it's interesting though that Richard Hills has gone to Donny today & has three rides there for the boss Hamdan Al Maktoum who also has fancied runners at Goodwood & Newmarket. Ladeena 10pts @ 10/1 in the 4.05 has form which is nothing to get excited about this season but encounters soft going for the first time since her good second on her only start as a 2yo & is worth a small interest at those odds. I suspect that the one Hills is there for though is Amwaal 10pts @ 9.6, Betfair. This colt is a half brother to the top class miler Bahri & is by the sire of the outstanding Dubai Millennium Seeking the Gold who was top class on dirt in the US & has a good record with 2yo's. Global Genius sets the standard to beat but has only stayed on at the same pace in both races to date & is worth taking on at a short price. There are runners from Bin-Suroor, also a short price & Stoute, 7lb claimer on top & again a small bet at the odds is taken. Alexander Goldrun should win the Nassau but is a best priced 13/8. 3yo's have won nine of the last ten runnings with a 4yo winning last year. Stoute has won this the last three years which would make Red Bloom interesting but she is held by the favourite on Curragh form. So is Hazarista from the same race but John Oxx has a 100% record with his runners in this country this season. The older horses look better than the 3yo's here but the race is left alone. Much debate as usual over the draw in the Stewards Cup. I can't see a Pivotal Point among the low numbers this time & I'm going with the higher numbers. Lafi looks chucked in on recent form & is due to go up 12lbs in future races, he is also well drawn but had a hard race on soft ground at Newbury last Sunday & has looked a bit fragile in the past. Gift Horse was caught close home by Soldiers Tale ( good form since ) & Fonthill Road at York in the spring. Won at Epsom after but made hard work of it & has been put away for this. Will need to get there fairly late has he tends to stop if in front too soon & therefore will need luck in running, shocking price. Fantasy Believer 10pts @ 20/1 also looks well in on his best form. Second in this last year he goes on the ground & is drawn in 20, will also need things to drop right but at the price is worth a go. The other that interests me is Out After Dark 10pts @ 23.0, Betfair. Likes to race up with the pace & is well drawn in 26, need to forgive the last run but before that took the Gosforth Park Cup on the stiff Newcastle track. The talented Adam Kirby takes off a useful 5lbs & the stable is in good form too. 40pts staked today then & hoping for a bit of luck in running. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio on the level One of those days yesterday. The two Richard Hills horses I backed at Doncaster yesterday both got beat & the one I didn't won at 9/2 :eyes Ladeena ran a fair race, trying to make all but was collared close home. Amwaal looks a quirky sort, came out of the stalls with the tail spinning like a propeller & was all over the place when asked for an effort. At least I got the odds right as both went off a lot shorter than the prices I took. As suggested Alexander Goldrun won the Nassau but went unbacked as well. A good run for the money from Fantasy Believer & Out After Dark in third & fifth in the Stewards. Fallons luck was in yesterday as not only did everything drop right for him in the race he was only inches from been kicked into the middle of next week in the parade ring before, could have been very nasty. The only race to interest today is the 3.40 at Newbury. The Lancashire Oaks form is suspect as they all finished in a heap there. Punctillious would have the best form from last year but has looked nothing like this term. Karliyana seemed not to last home over 10f LTO & was collared by Ruby Wine who also finished in front of her in the spring & this looks to far here. Green Noon was a smart 2yo in France & could improve at this first try over this trip for the new stable. Autumn Wealth has a group 3 penalty to overcome & the one I like is Natalie Jane 20pts @ 9/2 who was best of these at Haydock & is 3lb better off with Ruby Wine. after yesterday, Stakes 1471pts returns 1880.5pts Profit/loss +409.5pts. Rio.