richard-westwood Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 530 punch champion chase felix yonger 99.10 twinlight 99.07 champagne fever 98.66 champagne fever is all the rage here but last run was very poor leaving these top two far ahead on recent form ......now you could argue that should he bounce back .?......but at 5/2 theres no value at all .....so ill take him on with these top two at 6/1 and 8/1 ......nice bets felix yonger 4ptswin 8/1 skybet twinlight 4ptswin 6/1 skybet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3:40 Kidare Hunt Club FR Sean Bean Memorial Chase A very low key start as always with this cross country chase for poor hunter chasers and point-to-pointers so I will keep this brief. Enda Bolger has won five of the last nine runnings so inevitably much of the focus will be on the J P McManus-owned Wish Ye Didn’t under Nina Carberry who also rode the winner of this race on the Bolger-trained winners in 2010 and 2014. He is the youngest horse in the race at the age of six and last year’s winner, Be Positive, was also the youngest horse 12 months ago for the same owner/trainer/jockey combination. Wish Ye Didn’t was just five when he contested this race last year and unseated Trevor Ryan at the 18th and has not pulled up any trees since but he was a fair fourth beaten 15l in the Risk Of Thunder Chase over course and distance in November. Enniskillen also ran last year and was a well beaten ninth having finished sixth the previous year. Peter Maher of Big Shu fame trains Enniskillen (Big Shi won this race in 2012) plus Serious Times and Oscar Day and the latter appeals most of his trio having won a point-to-point at the end of January. Boxer Georg is the class act in terms of back catalogue having finished second to Baby Run in the Aintree Fox Hunters’ four years ago and second to Big Shu in this race in 2012 before the winner then improved to be top dog in this sphere of racing. However, he was trained by Willie Mullins then and in his prime and now he is aged 13 and moved to Seamus O’Farrell having also been with Shark Hanlon and was a 100/1 outsider and tailed off when he fell in this year’s Aintree Fox Hunters’. He did win a hunter chase for Hanlon in November though which is more than any of his rivals have managed. Jim Dreaper runs Katie’s Oscar who was second in a point-to-point nine days ago so unlike most of these at least we know he is in good heart though one win in 30 point-to-points says it all. Blackwood River was also second between the flags last time out having won his previous point-to-point so he is a plausible winner especially as this is juts his sixth start so there is more to come. Elembridge King is only 2-21 in point-to-points but has run some decent races though he likes to have two ways of running. Short List Wish Ye Didn’t Blackwood River Oscar Day Conclusion Even by this race’s usual standards this is a poor running and you need to see a doctor if you get involved too heavily but if Enda Bolger, who has won this race five times in ther last nine years, is relying on just Wish Ye Didn’t then that probably means something and he should be a better horse than the one who exited in this race as a five-year-old last year. He has probably been trained for this race since to give J P McManus the perfect start to the meeting and a reproduction of his Risk Of Thunder Chase fourth should be good enough. Blackwood River has the best profile of the others being a lightly-race and in-form point-to-pointer and Oscar Day may prove to be the best of the Peter Maher runners, a stable that should be noted in this sphere and he might be a bit of each-way value. Next….and sharpish. 4:20 Herald Champion Novice Hurdle This novice hurdle over 2m possesses a terrific Roll of Honour since it was upgraded to a Grade 1 contest 17 years ago including five Champion Hurdle winners in Dawn Run, Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly, Jezki and last year’s winner, Faugheen, in addition to a dual Champion Chaser in Moscow Flyer and it is long odds-on that the impressive Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Douvan is going to join them. The first of a number of odds-on favourites this week that Willie Mullins intends to run, surely they aren’t all going to win but unless I have a view one or more might underperform, I find it is best to look at the without-favourites markets in such instances. Five opponents take him on but it’s as good as 20/1 bar two with Blair Perrone, Rich Coast, Cardinal Palace and Velocity Boy having a mountain to climb on pure form, leaving the Supreme third, Sizing John, as the only real threat. Twelve of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race and two of the three that did not had placed at Grade 1 level so that aforementioned quartet have it all to do against two Grade 1 winners in Douvan and Sizing John. All eyes will be on Douvan attempting to improve the poor run of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner as only two of the eight Supreme winners to take their chance have won, they being Back In Front and Brave Inca. The six who failed were French Ballerina, Sausalito Bay, Like-a-Butterfly, Ebaziyan, Go Native and Champagne Fever and two of those were Mullins-trained. I wouldn’t suggest anyone back at horse at around 2/9 but especially not in a race where six of the eight Supreme winners to line up have been beaten. So, that’s the angle if you think that Sizing John can reverse places and hope that the winning effort of Douvan took more out of him than appeared so he won’t give his best. Sizing John was beaten 7l by Douvan at Cheltenham compared to 12l when they met at Gowran Park in November and also won a Grade 1 in between so he is improving and I can see him cut into the deficit again. If you like long odds-on shots and can’t see beyond Douvan following up his Cheltenham victory it is worth considering Willie Mullins’ record and it took a long time for him to notch up his first victory in this race when Hurricane Fly won in 2009 but then he followed up the next season’s supplying the 1-2. Unrepresented in 2011, Mullins was responsible for three of the five runners two years ago but they filled the last three places and his Champagne Fever couldn’t recover in time from his Supreme exertions last year in time. No such problem for Faugheen however, who was even more impressive here than when he won the Neptune. The Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle, a Grade 2 run at Fairyhouse over Easter, has been contested by three of the last seven winners, the latest being Alderwood three years ago. This season’s running was won by Sempre Medici beating Identity Thief and the Noel Meade-trained Rich Coast who was previously only 18th in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle. Meade has a very good record with his Easter Fairyhouse Meeting runners in this race as Cardinal Hill, Scottish Memories and Jered all won here after winning or finishing second and he has won this race on five occasions in total and supplied two runners-up. Short List Sizing John Douvan Conclusion If DOUVAN has fully recovered from his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then he wins at long odds-on with comfort. However, if he is feeling the effects of that win like six other Supreme winners who were beaten here (and both of Mullins’ Supreme winners to run in this race were comfortably beaten here plus Vautour was no way near as impressive winning at this meeting last year over 2m4f after pulverising the Supreme field) then SIZING JOHN has 7l to find having finished closer to him than when they met at Gowran so he too is improving and the yard had a Grade 1 winner with Special Tiara on Saturday. On that basis, 4/1 each-way about Sizing John looks about the only ‘in’ I can see in the race if you must have a bet with little downside if he finishes second as Douvan is too short in the outright market, Sizing John is too short in the without Douvan market, and the obvious forecast won’t pay much either. A trends case can be made for Rich Coast to outrun his odds given Noel Meade’s record in this race and especially with horses who contested the Grade 2 at Fairyhouse over Easter but if you are looking for a bet in a without Douvan market, he still has 11lb to find on official figures with Sizing John. Looking at the Supreme field in the paddock beforehand, they looked a very good bunch to me and the runner-up, Shaneshill, has already bolted up since at Fairyhouse so one of that pair will need to have an off day for him to sneak second. 4:55 Killashee Handicap Hurdle The handicaps at this meeting are incredibly difficult and 11 of the last 12 winners of this 18-runner, Grade B, 2m handicap hurdle have all started at a double-figure price. The exception was the Nicky Henderson-trained Cool Macavity who won at 9/1 last year and he returns off a 7lb higher mark for his 2l victory. His eighth place in the Scottish Champion Hurdle which followed an absence of four months could easily have been used to set him up for a repeat. Upgraded from a Class C event two years ago, nine of the last 11 winners carried no more than 10st 7lb. Some Article and Rupert Lamb appeal most of those with the first-named a former winner of the bumper on this card three years ago and having won two of his last three starts and the latter-named having dropped down the handicap for Willie Mullins but he has long threatened to win a good race. Fethard Player hit the front a little early in the equivalent race at the Grand National Meeting taking it up three out and only headed with 100 yards to race by Astre De la Coeur. If he is held onto for longer he can reverse placings. Just under 2l back in third was The Game Changer who was fourth in this race 12 months ago and a big punt for the County Hurdle where he could only finish ninth. The Game Changer is clearly an obvious contender so it is interesting to see Bryan Cooper ride the Tony Martin-trained The Plan Man for Gigginstown instead and he shaped well in fourth behind Some Article at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting on his first run since October including making an error two out. Is Tony Martin the man with a plan? One place ahead of him was Sizing Codelco who ran a little free. Cliff House is a novice who has won two of his four starts over hurdles and quickened clear to win in heavy ground last time and seems to have a preference for a testing surface. Sticking with spring Festival form and although Waxies Dargle couldn’t get in a blow in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle, he ran well when fifth in this race last season off 130 and is just 1lb higher here. He was only a 15/2 chance for the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown in January (Ireland’s most prestigious handicap hurdle) when he fell four out. Lucky Bridle is a second contender for Willie Mullins and contested the same two races having finished midfield in the Boylesports before making headway when falling two out in the County. He did subsequently disappoint behind Some Article at Fairyhouse at Easter however. Macnicholson was down the field in the Martin Pipe where maybe 2m4f stretched him but he had been very consistent until then so makes some each-way appeal for Jessica Harrington who does well with her 2m hurdlers. Short List The Plan Man Fethard Player Waxies Dargle Macnicholson Rupert Lamb Conclusion THE PLAN MAN might be well named as his good fourth behind Some Article after six months off had the whiff of a prep for race for this and Bryan Cooper rides him rather than The Game Changer who had a solid form chance and ran well in this race last year. With a less aggressive ride I fancy FETHARD PLAYER would have won the conditional and amateur riders’ handicap hurdle that followed the Grand National but he was caught half-way up the run-in by Astre De La Coeur at 33/1 beaten a neck. I shortlisted him that day and keep the faith. WAXIES DARGLE also ran a good race in this contest 12 months and can be the scene at the business again and makes each-way appeal as does the consistent MACNICHOLSON now that he reverts back to his favoured trip after probably failing to stay further at Cheltenham. RUPERT LAMB is most interesting of the lower weights having lost his confidence over fences and is lightly-raced for his age. Being Willie Mullins-trained and running off a 22lb lower mark over hurdles here than his best chase rating, he is worth a second look. 5:30 Boylesports Champion Chase The best Irish two-mile chasers generally bypass Aintree for this Grade 1 contest (there is no 2m Grade 1 at Aintree) though some try their luck over further in the Melling Chase over 2m4f like many of the Champion Chase chief protagonists down the years. Given the historical lack of depth in the 2m chase division, which sees the same horses contesting the same races, it is not at all surprising that the four most prestigious two-mile chases, the Champion Chase, Tingle Creek, Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase and the Clarence House, have featured in the campaigns of plenty of contenders for this Grade 1 prize with the Queen Mother Champion Chase proving to be top dog as you might expect. Sizing Europe became the tenth winner in the last 12 years that contested the sport’s ultimate 2m chasing prize when successful last season, a race represented this year by just Sizing Europe (6th) again and Savello (7th). I was pretty keen on Sizing Europe for this race last year off the back of his fourth place in the Champion Chase but am struggling to find the same enthusiasm for him this time at the age of 13. I can only conclude that Savello ran in the Champion Chase as Gigginstown wanted a runner as there were much better options for him at the meeting and he was unsurprisingly outclassed and he has since finished a tailed-off last of three behind Twinlight. Savello was third in this race last year beaten 5¾l by Sizing Europe after winning the Grand Annual but he doesn’t enter the race in any way near the same form. The leading Irish guide featuring four of the last ten winners is the Paddy Power Dial-a-Bet Chase at Leopardstown where Twinlight beat Hidden Cyclone into second. I felt the winner benefitted from not having anything to do with the mad gallop up front so Hidden Cyclone boxed on well in the circumstances taking it up down the back straight and being 3l clear two out. Since then Hidden Cyclone won the Tied Cottage Chase well but disappointed in the Ryanair. Tried in first-time blinkers here, that’s an angle I like for the big races. The stat against him is that he is a 10-year-old and that three of the four winners since 1992 aged older than nine were ten-year-olds that won the previous season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase (Moscow Flyer, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe) and their class was enough to see them through. Then again, Sizing Europe also took the honours aged 12 last season. Twinlight would prefer softer ground like when he won at Leopardstown and when beating Mallowney by 7l earlier in the month but the runner-up didn’t run his race. Mallowney had seriously impressed winning his previous two races and would have been a leading contender for the Champion Chase had been entered, but the intention was always to aim him at this prize having won so easily in a handicap at this meeting last year. If you can forgive him that poor run where he didn’t have the assistance of Davy Russell who gets such a great tune out of him then he has a great chance and there is an argument to made that he has the best 2m chase form in Ireland this season. Champagne Fever was my Champion Chase horse as I was convinced that he would be at his best forcing it over 2m so it was very frustrating that he was withdrawn on the day giving been bitten by a stablemate in transit. He has to bounce back from a mediocre effort in the Melling Chase and his supporters will be hoping that run can be put down to him being reined back rather than allowed to bowl along. He does run some bad races now and again however and I reckon he is best fresh too so and this is just 18 days later. British-trained raiders have a decent record since this became a Grade 1 winning it with Celibate, Get Real, Flagship Uberalles, Twist Magic, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre in addition to Big Matt winning the 1998 running when it was Grade 1 handicap and Viking Flagship took the 1993 edition as a novice. However, the Haldon Gold Cup third, Oscar Hill, is bottom rated by some margin rated just 144. Felix Yonger, Flemenstar and Baily Green complete the field. Felix Yonger is chasing a four-timer and is the stable third string on jockey bookings. His overall form suggests he is a good Grade 2 horse but that a class act will have his measure. Flemenstar shaped well for a long way on his first run in 16 months before fading into sixth beaten 20l by Felix Yonger and it will be some training effort to get him back to be in the first three, let alone win. I always felt he was a little over-rated anyway but he still has a big fan club and reputation so I imagine he will be underpriced. Baily Green isn’t the same horse this season and his best isn’t good enough regardless. Short List Mallowney Hidden Cyclone Felix Yonger Conclusion Mallowney and Hidden Cyclone would be my two against the field. This has been the primary aim for MALLOWNEY since he breezed home at this meeting last year and he would be near enough favourite if he arrived here off the back of his easy Grade 2 win at Naas that followed a demolition job in the Dan Moore Handicap. His latest run has to be forgiven but I am prepared to do that as he was missing the key ingredient of Davy Russell who is back in the saddle here, and especially at around 15/2 which looks a knocking each-way price about such a supreme traveller. HIDDEN CYCLONE fell in this race last year when he had the tag of being a slightly unlucky horse but he has got his head in front this season and is a big player if not ridden as aggressively as at Leopardstown at Christmas when Twinlight beat him and on his impressive Tied Cottage Chase success. I am not sure he needs blinkers as he looks to put it all in and more but their first-time introduction makes him more intriguing. If Champagne Fever pours it on from half-way in front and gets into a jumping rhythm then he will take some catching. However, he has too many poor days and as I think he’s best fresh, running again just 18 days after disappointing under hold-up tactics worries me. FELIX YONGER is my idea of the best of Mullins’ trio even if he is the least fancied. His overall profile is one of a horse not quite good enough but there are question marks about every runner. 6:05 Goffs Land Rover INH Flat Race The first of six bumpers at the meeting, this is restricted to horses bought at Goffs in June last year and with 100,000 euros up for grabs, it should produce a good horse or two. Over half the field are having their debut so this is a race to play carefully in. Willie Mullins has won four of the last nine runnings including the last two and has declared St Stephens Green who makes his debut like two of his four winners. All but one of the 23 runners are 4yos, the other being Zagelle for Henry de Bromhead. There are three previous winners in the field; Petit Mouchoir and Ball D’Arc, who made winning debuts in point-to-points, and Bon Enfant who Warren Greatex sends over having won his only start in a Wincanton bumper 27 days ago where he kept on gamely after which the trainer reported his jockey had trouble pulling him up. Petit Mouchoir represents Gordon Elliott who made most to win his only point-to-point and they have now turned to a hood with him whereas Ball D’Ac only beat two rivals in his point-to-point win and was then stuffed on his bumper debut beaten 27l. Of those beaten on their only bumper start, the most interesting are Our Three Sons who was just touched off on Fontwell for Jamie Snowden, Art Of Synergy who was third of 20 at Navan last month for Sandra Hughes, and Aidan O’Brien runs Tesseract who was a never-nearer sixth at Fairyhouse three weeks ago in the McManus silks. Even more guesswork involved in the debutants but Jessica and Katie Harrington won this race in 2009 and they combine with the filly, Twinkletoes, Jonjo O’Neill sends over Set In My Ways for J P McManus, Thomas Mullins won this with Some Article in 2012 and he runs Phar Island, and Noel Meade and Nina Carberry are represented by Red Giant. Short List St Stephens Green Bon Enfant Petit Mouchoir Twinkletoes Conclusion Given Willie Mullins’ good record in this race, and not with short-priced horses either with winners at 14/1, 12/1 and 7/1, then ST STEPHENS GREEN has to be considered. Warren Greatrex has a fine strike rate in bumpers in Britain and he was talking up his hopes for BON ENFANT recently so he looks the pick of the three-strong raiding party having shown a good attitude to win at Wincanton. Gordon Elliott’s PETIT MOUCHOIR would be my pick of those with previous experience of the Irish who is interesting in a first-time hood and, while we are guessing to a very large extent, I will chance TWINKLETOES with a fillies’ allowance for a trainer-jockey partnership that have won this race before. 6:40 Growise Champion Novice Chase Upgraded from a Grade 2 2m5f event to a Grade 1 3m1f race in 2007, this is a different race now from a decade ago so, effectively, there are just eight runnings to work off so strong patterns are thin on the ground at present. This Punchestown Festival equivalent of the RSA Chase was first run in 1992 and won by Milford Quay who was the first of five British-trained winners, the latest of which being the Charlie Mann-trained Air Force One seven years ago. Rebecca Curtis sends over Irish Cavalier who I fancied for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase but he fell at the fifth fence. Hard to think that he would have beaten Saphir Du Rheu though given the ease of his victory. I liked his chance at Aintree as I felt that his stamina won him the novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival despite making a mistake three and being forced to switch round rivals in the home straight, after which I commented that I thought he was an ideal type for next season’s Hennessy. Sadly, we didn’t get the chance to find out at Aintree but his connections want to give him another shot at 3m1f here. Paul Townend rode him at Cheltenham and Aintree but he rides Wounded Warrior so Noel Fehily comes in for the ride for the first time. Sir Des Champs became the first successful favourite three years ago since the race took on a new look when outclassing his field at odds of 2/7 so he was giving Gigginstown successive wins in the race following on from Quito De La Roque 12 months earlier and their maroon-and-white silks only found one too good two years ago when the NH Chase runner-up, Tofino Bay, was the bridesmaid again behind Mount Benbulben. This year Gigginstown supply three of the five runners headed by Don Poli who had Wounded Warrior 7½l back n third when he won the RSA Chase and they are also represented by Valseur Lido. A big run at Cheltenham Festival can take too much out of a novice, it certainly did for the RSA Chase winner, Cooldine, who had the look of a horse that had not come close to recovering from those Festival exertions when beaten here and the last two defeated favourites, Back In Focus and Morning Assembly, were also below par after a win and third at the Festival. As such, this race has so far had an end-of-season feel to it which has resulted in four relatively-surprising winners at 7/1, 9/1, 16/1 and 14/1 in smallish-field events in the eight years since it became a Grade 1 event so that is your best angle if you don’t like the projected odds of 1/3 about Don Poli. If the RSA winner is beaten here it wouldn’t be the first time a very good horse has simply had enough for the season at this meeting, it also certainly wouldn’t be the first time this season that a Gigginstown second or third string has upset their main hope and, with just four rivals, maybe it could get tactical, in which case this out-and-out stayer becomes vulnerable having hit flat spots in his two Cheltenham wins before storming clear each time. The chase course here suits front runners much better. I think that of all the Mullins hot pots this week, Don Poli might be the most vulnerable. Wounded Warrior would have won the NH Chase in my view had Gigginstown stuck to Plan A before playing silly beggars in their running plans, saying one thing and doing another. Very easy to say after the race of course but I would think that his third place in the RSA was a superior effort to Cause Of Causes beating Broadway Buffalo in the four-miler. Last year’s winner, Carlingford Lough, finished sixth in the RSA Chase before striking here as third-favourite in a field of five. I certainly made a mental note not to listen closely to anything their racing manager Eddie O’Leary says in the future regards their running plans (another one to add to the ever-expanding list!) as he wasn’t the only horse of theirs that ended up in another race from when interviewed just a few days beforehand. As much as I liked Valseur Lido up to Cheltenham, I was a little disappointed with him at Prestbury Park when third in the JLT and he looked to have had enough for the season when running no race at Fairyhouse on his next start so I am surprised to see him here. I can only conclude Gigginstown want as many runners as possible in the Grade 1 races (or they found a good reason for a very poor run) so I prefer Wounded Warrior to the Drinmore winner. In addition to Wounded Warrior, Noel Meade also runs Apache Stronghold who moves up in trip. He just got the better of Valseur Lido for the second time when finishing second in a different parish behind Vautour in the JLT before he fell at the ninth fence in the Grade 1 over 2m4f over Easter at Fairyhouse. Meade hopes that he can develop into a Gold Cup horse (he certainly looked the part in the paddock before the JLT as no horse impressed me more all week in the preliminaries) in which case he needs to be staying well here and just four rivals, two of which are dour stayers in Don Poli and Wounded Warrior, can help him do just that unless one of this pair makes it a real stamina test. Three of the last six winners ran at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting, two finished unplaced in that Ryanair Chase (formerly Powers Gold Cup) and Rare Bob finished fourth in the Irish National. Short List Apache Stronghold Wounded Warrior Conclusion In terms of a short list of most likely winners then of course Don Poli has to be top having won two Grade 1s in terrific style in his last two starts but he could vulnerable at this late stage of the season in a race that has seen The Form Book been turned upside down more than once so this particular short list is more in terms of potential bets. APACHE STRONGHOLD only has 3l to find to Don Poli on Topaz Chase form over around this trip at Christmas and rates decent value at around 6/1, especially if this gets tactical as he has more speed than Don Poli and Wounded Warrior and more class than Irish Cavalier and he also has the edge over Valseur Lido on their last two meetings and that rival also now his wellbeing to prove after a bad run at Fairyhouse. Paul Carberry was gutted he didn’t win the Topaz such is the regard in which he is held. WOUNDED WARRIOR could be a little under-rated despite an easy Grade 2 win and a good third in the RSA last time out as he is not the type to catch the imagination. If Don Poli is not at his best and this develops into a stamina test, he would best placed to take advantage. 7:15 JLT INH Flat Race A little bit more form to go on in this bumper restricted to four-year-olds who are maidens under Rules as exactly half of the 22 declarations have run and it was won last season by Forgotten Rules (had Sizing John back in fourth) who I think will take all the beating in the Ascot Gold Cup on June 18th. Prior to him it was the Albert Bartlett winner, Very Wood, who won this race and 12 months before him it was Saturday’s Bet365 Gold Cup second-favourite when trained at the time by Don Cantillon, Grand Jesture, who refused to race but many bookmakers refunded stakes. No Willie Mullins contenders, surprisingly. The one winner in the line up is Crazyheart but as that came in a point-to-point three months ago he is eligible to run for Paul Nolan but he was all out to win in a small field. Of those beaten under Rules, Man Of Conquest and Couer Joyeux look the pick, the first-named finishing third for Dessie McDonogh here in February behind the impressive Disko who is likely to run in the Grade 1 bumper here later in the week, and the latter-named finishing second in a Leopardstown bumper in February for Sandra Hughes behind Charbel who has won again since at Limerick for Willie Mullins. Of the 11 unraced contenders the four that could catch the attention of punters most are Startinfromscratch for Jonjo O’Neill and J P McManus, Noel Meade and Nina Carberry team up with Showem Silver, Gordon Elliott unleashes Petite Gold and the Harringtons team up again with Bright Tomorrow. Short List Man Of Conquest Coueur Joyeux Showem Silver Startinfromscratch Conclusion Noel Meade and Nina Carberry combined to win this race in 2006 so SHOWEM SILVER makes it onto the short list. Nina has extra incentive to get him into the frame as she also owns him and can sell him for a few quid. Jonjo O’Neill has an okay record with his bumper horses at this meeting so STARTINFROMSCRATCH might be useful to be sent over. If pressed I would prefer the proven form of COUEUR JOYEUX whose second on his debut has been franked and MAN OF CONQUEST may have bumped into a very smart one on his only start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd Stunning write ups Miss / Mrs Beaker, awesome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 455 punch aster de la cour 98.55 fethard player 98.52 the game changer 98.44 tough race and you can stick a pin in it really with 25 runners but theres some decent value in the top 2 here with astre de la cour having recorded a very quick time lto so warrants respect today .....fethard player has been written off by bookies but theres no reason to suggest he couldn't beat this fav given luck in running so his odds on betfair are just silly ....... astre de la cour 3pts win 8/1 bet365 fethard player 2pts win 18.5 betfair 2pts place 5.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 530 punch champion chase felix yonger 99.10 twinlight 99.07 champagne fever 98.66 champagne fever is all the rage here but last run was very poor leaving these top two far ahead on recent form ......now you could argue that should he bounce back .?......but at 5/2 theres no value at all .....so ill take him on with these top two at 6/1 and 8/1 ......nice bets felix yonger 4ptswin 8/1 skybet twinlight 4ptswin 6/1 skybet felix yonger does the business ....nice price ...returns 36 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 28, 2015 Author Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 640 punch guiness chase Wednesday Ericht 98.67 simply wings 98.66 ballyadam approach 98.58 I could try and separate these but its a tough race and all 3 are available at big prices so may as well have the tag team ....simly wings is the form horse overall and should run well with conditions perfect ......ballyadam approach is also in form and looks potentially well treated .....Ericht is a riskier outsider .......n Henderson does well here so strange hes sent this one over and he was running well at the 20f point at chelt before fading last few furlongs ....well treated and return to 20f will suit perfectly .....dark horse ballyadam approach 2pts win 11/1 corals simply wings 2pts win 20/1 corals Ericht 2pts win 25/1 corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd Wednesday 3.40 Seskinane 25/1 .5 pt e/w ladbrokes 5 places. That 5th of 18 at Fairyhouse is very good form I feel and in a conditional jockeys' race I think it's a big advantage to be able to have the same rider as you had last time in non-conditional company, not that I think Paddy Kennedy is a star conditional. Landau 14/1 .5 pt e/w Paddy 5 places. This horse is coming off a break but it's gone well fresh. As a 5 year old for Gordon Elliott probably unexposed and is entitled to get competitive on past form. The real reason for picking this horse though is the Kevin Sexton booking. For me he's one of the best conditionals out there and has had a great year, landing the Troytown on Balbriggan and coming very close in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. In this company he's a massive plus. Kylestyle 14/1 .5 pt e/w bet365 5 places. Really looked like a stayer the last 2 starts so an extra 4 furlongs should help him build on already competitive efforts. Derek Fox not a bad conditional either. Westerners Son 14/1 .5 pt e/w bet365 5 places. Really got the field stretched out last time which is a good sign. Baccalaureate one of the few to get close backed up the form with a reasonable 5th recently. Maybe won't get an easy lead this time but Conor Maxwell clearly works well with the horse, riding it the last 5 times, winning twice. 7 pound rise but I think he can do well still. Don't always like picking 4 in a race like this but I couldn't find any of the 14/1 shots to leave out. 4.55 Thistlecrack 8/1 coral 1 point win. Shaneshill looks a good horse but I don't think he's something to scare you off the others. Not a big No More Heroes fan. Thistlecrack was very impressive when winning a grade 1 at Aintree. Perhaps it wasn't the best grade 1 but he did seem to be on top when Alpha Des Obeaux fell at the last. That was his first crack at 3 miles after running with a lot of credit over 2m in the imperial cup off 133. I think 8/1 is absolutely huge. 5.30 Don Cossack 3/1 1 point win William Hill. That was an incredible performance at Aintree and if a Mullins horse did that he'd show up here odds on. Road to Riches could reverse the form with Djakadam on better ground but he's been on the go a long time and had an incredibly hard race in the gold cup (made even harder by Bryan Cooper using the whip 16 times, the limit being 8). There's a lot to like about Ballynagour and you can't rule out Boston Bob or On His Own but the front 3 have such class it's hard to go past them and I'm very confident Don Cossack is the best of those. They've always felt he'd stay and I think he can follow in Boston Bob's footsteps with the Melling/Gold Cup double. 6.40 Baby Mix 16/1 Stan James 1 point win. I thought this horse's comeback run from a year and a half off was excellent at Aintree, 10L 6th of 17 in a race as prestigious as what it goes in tomorrow. The horse before that break was rated 142 and now races off 133 so I think can really get in the mix. Now goes over 4 furlongs extra which should suit. Only 7 years old and represents Warren Greatrex I think it has a great chance. You Must Know Me 12/1 William Hill 1 point win. This horse has run really well in 2 big English handicaps over the trip and can cope with the ground. I thought this horse was 50:50 to win when falling lto against Gold Bullet, this race's favourite. Now he's 4 pounds better off, if showing no ill effects this horse should be right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 6.05 Supasundae 10/1 bet365 1 point win. Jamie Codd is an absolutely outstanding amateur to have on board. Has 6 lengths to make up on Modus but he went well for a long way at Cheltenham, maybe didn't like the hill. His last 3 runs have been for 3 different trainers, maybe De Bromhead can do better with him the second time. His listed bumper win worked out well with Yanworth going close at Cheltenham. Of course the breeding is a standout with this horse with Galileo the sire. I'm not sure about the Mullins runners, either he didn't think enough of them to bring them to his favourite race, the Champion Bumper, or they disappointed in that race. Disko and Modus very obvious threats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3:40 Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle Next to impossible with plotted-up horses aplenty I’m sure about to leave their form miles behind in this race confined to conditional riders and many small yards have won this Final in the 11 years since it was first run. Therefore I suggest if you do play then keep stakes to a minimum. Sea Beat has been a talking horse for a season and a half now but his row of duck eggs keeps extending. Only rated 119, I am sure Arthur Moore thinks he is better than that and maybe this better ground will be more to his liking having finished third to Windsor Park on his only Flat start. Cassells Rock might be another who will appreciate this better ground for Tony Martin having won twice when summer jumping last year. Oscar Knight has course-winning form when successful here in February having also run another couple of good races at Punchestown and he has not had a chance to race on better ground yet. He is also owned by J P McManus who sponsors this race series for which this is the Final and he is also represented by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Egyptian Warrior who is another with a sound-surface profile so can leave his recent efforts behind. Landau has a sexier profile than most being Gordon Elliott-trained and having won two of his last four starts including when sent over to Exeter so he is likely to be the fore in the betting. Nickname Exit looks the number one of Willie Mullins’ pair ahead of Tarabiyn and won his only race over hurdles so he too is one for the sexy-profile punters. However, he was third behind Russian Bill in a bumper in January and now has to give Noel Meade’s charge 4lb here. Russian Bill would also be a leading fancy if we overlook his last run where he was too bad to be true in a Grade 3 novice hurdle having won his previous two starts and, in Ger Fox, he arguably has the most talented young rider in the race on his side. Short List Russian Bill Oscar Knight Cassells Rock Nickname Exit Sea Beat Conclusion Probably the most horrible race of the meeting to try and work out and nothing really to add to the above but Landau and Egyptian Warrior would be the two of the septet I have highlighted to leave out. RUSSIAN BILL would be a token selection ahead of NICKNAME EXIT as I think he’s pretty good if you can forgive him his last run and I like his jockey in this boys’ race. The other three of OSCAR KNIGHT, CASSELLS ROCK and SEA BEAT are included more in hope that they will improve for the better ground than they have been racing on of late. 4:20 Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle Restricted to horses with no more than one win over timber of any age, Davy Russell has won the last three renewals and has been booked for On Fiddlers Green who was not disgraced when beaten 15l into third by Shaneshill last time out at 100/1 after winning a maiden hurdle and he is only 8lb off the top-rated contender which is the far more experienced Sadler’s Risk (140) who was sixth in the Triumph Hurdle three years ago for Philip Hobbs having been a good horse on the Flat but never kicked on. Now with Henry de Bromhead, after being well beaten in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase, Sadler’s Risk was sent back hurdling and won here on New Year’s Eve before finishing second of three last time out with Aklan a disappointing tailed-off last of three. He looks there to be shot at by an improving horse though. Second top rated just 2lb adrift is Identity Thief and he looks the one to beat. He got found out in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle but the 1-2 have both won Grade 1s since then so no shock that he couldn’t compete with distinction there and his chance is better judged on his second to Sempre Medici in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse earlier in the month. Of the others rated 130+, Total Recall and Prince Of Scars both represent Sandra Hughes. Total Recall has the advantage of being a course-and-distance winner when taking a maiden hurdle here in February since when he has been outclassed in two Grade 2s including finishing one place behind On Fiddlers Green last time out and Prince Of Scars was just 3l adrift back in fifth. Shantou Flyer has not run for 78 days since running poorly in a Grade 3 at Clonmel in testing ground but his only win came on Good ground so this better surface could be key and he has place claims on his second to Free Expression in a Grade 2 at Navan in November. This is a drop in class for Gerdago who has been struggling against the likes of Dedigout and Felix Yonger recently and his 3½l third to Dedigout in the Boyne Hurdle gives him a shot. Aidan O’Brien’s Marchese Marconi completes the 130+ contenders and has the Flat class to be a factor having finished second to Windsor Park at Galway in October but he has not matched that over timber. The rest don’t look good enough. Short List Identity Thief On Fiddlers Green Gerdago Conclusion The Grade 2 over this trip at Fairyhouse earlier this month should have a bearing featuring ON FIDDLERS GREEN, Total Recall and Prince Of Scars who finished third, fourth and fifth behind Shaneshill but IDENTITY THIEF looks the one to beat on his second to the smart Sempre Medici at the same meeting over 2m and if he can reproduce that form over this extra 4f, he can outclass his rivals. It may have been a messy Boyne Hurdle but GERDAGO ran well to finish third not beaten far and this is a drop in class from that contest. Although eighth of nine in another Grade 2 last time, he was only beaten 9l so he has to be considered for each-way purposes. 4:55 Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle First run in 2008 and upgraded to a Grade 1 race three years ago having previously been a standard novice hurdle and then a Grade 3 and Grade 2, therefore this staying novice hurdle equivalent of Cheltenham’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle over 3m is still finding its feet to an extent so trends are thin on the ground. In its seven runnings to date this contest has provided surprise winners with four striking at a double-figure price, though The Midnight Club and Beat That justified favouritism, the latter beating Don Poli into second 12 months ago in the race’s classiest running to date. Those two winners were also the only two winners that had previously won over 3m under Rules. The Albert Bartlett third, No More Heroes, has the best 3m form in the race and he may well have won at Cheltenham had Bryan Cooper not gone for a run up the inside rail and was quickly chopped off. In testing ground it took him an age to get into top gear again and he was only beaten 1½l by Martello Tower. He is a gorgeous stamp of a horse that looks every inch a potential top notcher when he is sent chasing so the big question is whether 47 days is enough recovery time after a very hard race? Willie Mullins has won two runnings with The Midnight Club and Marasonnien but was out of luck with Don Poli finishing second last season and also in 2013 when his favourite and second-favourite, Ballycasey and Inish Island, finished third and second respectively behind Morning Assembly. He did saddle the 1-2-3 the previous season however and has decided to raise the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up, Shaneshill, up to three miles. He cruised to victory over 2m4f at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting in a manner that suggested another half-mile for the last season’s Grade 1 Bumper winner on this card shouldn’t be a problem and most top class bumper horses tend to be stayers. Mullins also runs the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle winner, Killultagh Vic, but he won that handicap off just 135 so even a 7lb raise for that win leaves him 11lb to find with Shaneshill. He does shape like a real stayer however and is open to more improvement for the extra half-mile. Mullins also runs Roi Des Francs who was third behind Killultagh Vic at Cheltenham giving 4lb and beaten 4½l so there is little between them on that evidence. He was pulled up at Aintree however behind Thistlecrack in the Grade 1 2m novice hurdle so has a wellbeing question to answer. The Colin Tizzard-trained Thistlecrack will be attempting to emulate Beat That last year who won this prize after winning the Sefton at Aintree. A surprise 25/1 winner at Liverpool but the step up a mile brought around tremendous improvement, Alpha Des Obeaux would have given him a race but for a last-flight fall but he still beat the remainder by 13l. A second British challenger is the Harry Fry-trained Fletchers Flyer who was set to contest the Albert Bartlett but withdrawn on the morning so he is fresh having not run since narrowly beaten by Definitely Red in a Grade 2 at Haydock where he looked to have the race in the bag for most of the home straight giving the runner-up 3lb. Rebecca Curtis completes the British invasion sending over Binge Drinker who has won four of his six starts over hurdles but he was found out both times he went into pattern-race company. Arctic Skipper, Fine Article, High Stratos and Sub Lieutenant complete the field. Arctic Skipper looks too inexperienced having his third hurdles start (I like race-hardened horses for top-class staying novice hurdles) coming off a maiden hurdle win on his second start, High Stratos likewise, Fine Article is exposed and one paced and was beaten into second by Roi Des Francs at Clonmel but Sub Lieutenant has a squeak if he stays this longer trip having finished fourth to Nichols Canyon over 2m4f at Aintree and beating the Albert Bartlett runner-up, Milsean, by 5½l on his previous start, though the runner-up that day did improve significantly for a real slog at Cheltenham. Short List No More Heroes Shaneshill Fletchers Flyer Conclusion I think that NO MORE HEROES is the best long-term prospect in the field and the one to beat if he has recovered from a hard race in the Albert Bartlett even if SHANESHILL is officially rated the better horse by 6lb on his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle run. That figure was put up over a mile shorter trip than he faces today however but he should stay, it’s just whether he is quite as good over 3m as he is over shorter. The pair met in a Grade 2 over 2m4f at Navan in December and No More Heroes came out on top and I think he is even more likely to do over another half a mile. Thistlecrack has a Grade 1 win to his name but I prefer FLETCHERS FLYER of the British raiders who missed the Albert Bartlett which could prove to be a blessing in disguise given what an attritional race it was. 5:30 Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup The Cheltenham Gold Cup has to be the starting point as seven of the last 11 winners contested jumping’s blue riband at the Festival. Although Coneygree has been put away for the season, we still have Djakadam and Road To Riches representing jumping’s blue riband, who had such a good battle for second taking their chance in addition to On His Own (5th), Boston Bob (10th) and The Giant Bolster (pulled up). Djakadam ran a blinder to be second given only one six-year-old had won the Gold Cup since 1963 which was always my sticking point with him but no horse travelled with more purpose behind Coneygree for the meat of the race. The concern is how much did that hard race take out of a young horse who was having just his sixth chase start and Willie Mullins has alluded to that in the build up to deciding whether to declare him or not. The more battle-hardened Road To Riches finished on his tail and might be better equipped to recover in time of the pair chasing a third Grade 1 win of the season. Last year’s winner was also a successful favourite and it has been a very good race indeed for the market leader with nine of the last 13 proving successful. It will be interesting to see which of this pair or Don Cossack is sent off the market leader. Three years ago China Rock was the only Gold Cup representative in the field (though he could finish only eighth at Cheltenham beaten 48l by Synchronised) and won here a 20/1 so it is not all about the Gold Cup principals. On His Own ran well to finish fifth and has since won again beating Roi Du Mee in a Grade 3. He did bomb out in this race last year however after he was second in the Gold Cup and I would be disappointed from a race fan’s perspective if he can win at the age of 11, especially as there has been no winner of this race over the age of ten. His owner-mate Boston Bob won last season’s renewal but he has not been in the same form this season. I have to conclude that his wins in last season’s Melling Chase (beat Rolling Aces) and this race (beat First Lieutenant) were both below-par renewals. The fact that Paul Townend rides On His Own in preference to Boston Bob says plenty. The Giant Bolster didn’t fire in the Gold Cup being another who was thrown out of his comfort zone by Coneygree placing too much pressure on his sticky jumping. He reserves his best for the New Course at Cheltenham so I don’t see him bouncing back to his best here. Given that this race takes place over 2m4f, it is a little surprising that the John Durkan Memorial Chase has been the best Irish guide having featured as many as seven of the last 16 winners stretching back to Imperial Call in 1999. Then again, it is also run at Punchestown and course form has counted for plenty in this race down the years as ten of the last 11 Irish-trained winners had won at Punchestown before which is something Djakadam and On His Own have yet to achieve. This season’s John Durkan witnessed Don Cossack beat Boston Bob and Lord Windermere. The other key Irish race is the Lexus Chase which has thrown up four of the last 12 winners and saw Road To Riches beat On His Own with Boston Bob back in fourth. The Betfred Bowl winner doesn’t often run here but has a good record when it does. This year’s winner, Silviniaco Conti, has been put away until the autumn however but the narrow runner-up, Ballynagour, takes his chance having only been beaten a head in a first-time hood. The most impressive performance at Aintree was put up by Don Cossack who sauntered to victory in the Melling Chase running to a mark of 171 (can be argued to be much higher) which makes him the top-rated horse in the race. The worry is are Gigginstown going to the well too often with him and too soon after a big performance? He won very easily but beating Cue Card 26l into second has got to take something out of a horse hasn’t it? Flemenstar is declared but it looks like a contingency plan if something goes wrong early in the 2m chase on Day 1 and he doesn’t stay anyway. Short List Road To Riches On His Own Ballynagour Conclusion Firstly, in-running bettors take note as five of the last nine winners were leading from as far as four out. Extend that to six who were in front three out. A cracking race made even more interesting by the declaration of Don Cossack so soon after his Aintree demolition job of Cue Card but I would have thought that Cooper would ride Don Cossack leaving Paul Carberry to take the mount on the Meade-trained ROAD TO RICHES having won the Grade 1 on him at Down Royal in November but the fact Cooper is on Road To Riches strikes me as significant and I think he might be better equipped than Djakadam at this stage of their careers to run to his Gold Cup form after they both endured a hard race. Having stated that I would disappointed if ON HIS OWN won, and I would be, that doesn’t mean he can’t win with question marks hanging over whether some of his rivals might underperform after hard races last time out, and I think he might be the best each-way or place-only play. Yes, he blew out in this race last year after an exceptionally hard run in the Gold Cup when beaten a nose after his jockey received a seven-day ban for overuse of the whip so I can forgive him that and he does jump out to his right so this course should suit better than Cheltenham. He is also in great heart having finished fifth in the Gold Cup and then easily beating the in-form Roi Du Mee. The fact that Townend rides rather than last year’s winner Boston Bob also encourages me that he will run a big race. BALLYNAGOUR put up a career-best effort when upped to this trip when just beaten by Silviniaco Conti in the Bowl which has been a good guide to this race and what price would the dual King George winner be here? Ballynagour was also a close third in the 2m Grade 1 chase at this meeting last year after a placed effort at Aintree and is fresher than most so I can see him outrun his odds. 6.05 Attheraces Champion INH Flat Race The most prestigious of the six bumpers scheduled at the Punchestown Festival and, unlike the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, it is restricted to amateur riders plus seven-year-olds are allowed to take part, though none do this year. As the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham is the only other Grade 1 race of its type in Britain or Ireland, it stands to reason that it is likely to be the most significant guide which is the case by a huge margin. Since this Grade 1 event at Punchestown was first run in 1992, 12 winners contested the Cheltenham version of which 11 finished in the first six at Prestbury Park including last year when Shaneshill reversed places with Silver Concorde when they filled the first two places again. In doing so Shaneshill became the fourth runner-up at Cheltenham to gain ample consolation here following Tiananmen Square, Aeries Girl and Arctic Camper so Modus, a 1½l runner-up to Moon Racer last month, is trying to become the fifth. Like the winner he missed the break which may have proven to be a blessing in disguise before storming through the field in a first-time hood on his seasonal debut having not run since finishing unplaced in the same Festival Bumper the previous year. If he can reproduce that form he should have no problem holding off Supasundae (6th), Montana Belle (8th), Bay Of Freedom (9th), Bellshill (10th) – since finished second at Aintree, Au Quart de Tour (13th), Livelovelaugh (15th) and Bordini (pulled up). The question marks are whether he was flattered by coming through off a strong pace, will the hood work again and will he bounce as that was a big run following a year’s layoff? Of the 12 winners that ran in the Champion Bumper only Hidden Universe (19th) in 2010 had finished out of the first six so Supasundae still qualifies as interesting on that count having run a good race on his first start for Henry de Bromhead. The other quartet to run at Cheltenham were all trained by Willie Mullins who collectively disappointed. In fact the Irish disappointed as a whole as it was a 1-2-3-4 for the Brits. Mullins also runs the unbeaten-in-three Pylonthepressure who looked like being one of his biggest hopes in the Festival Bumper (though he was not the intended ride of Patrick Mullins so not their number-one hope) but was withdrawn on the morning. Given how his other bumper horses ran at Cheltenham though, there has to be a question mark whether he would also have been up to it. Patrick Mullins rides Bellshill today with Jane Mangan coming in for the ride on Pylonthepressure. With a jaw-dropping eight Weatherbys Champion Bumpers winners, Willie Mullins is clearly the number-one yard for top-class bumper horses and he has won this race on five occasions and saddled four more horses to finish second. Modus, Altior and Wade Harper represent the British and it is very strange how British-trained horses have a far better record in this Grade 1 race than the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival down the years and the David Pipe-trained The Liquidator was another winner two years ago. Since this race became a Grade 1 in 1995, the Brits started to take a keener in interest and won four times in the next 11 years courtesy of Arctic Camper, King’s Road, Royal Rosa and Refinement when they were seriously outnumbered which was certainly surprising to me given that they could hardly bag a Champion Bumper within the same time frame when being responsible for the majority of the field. In addition to their five winners, British-trained horses have supplied five runners-up. All in all, as they don’t travel over in great numbers, the British have a good record here. Modus’ form claims are there for all to see and Wade Harper from the David Dennis stable arrives here off the back of a win at Market Rasen having finished second at Haydock. He is owned by Favourites Racing who likes runners in Ireland so I have to think he is more of a social runner rather than as serious contender. Altior is sent over by Nicky Henderson having bypassed Cheltenham for which he was an intended runner. His close-up third to Barters Hill in a Listed Bumper looks a lot better now given the winner then added the competitive Grade 2 Bumper at the Grand National Meeting. Five-year-olds supplied the 1-2-3-4-5-6 two years ago and six of the first seven positions last year. Restricted to horses aged no older than seven since 2007, as with the Champion Bumper there was a time when I was keen to take on four-year-olds but, after struggling terribly in this race (as they did at Cheltenham) it has been different of late (as it also has for Cheltenham) with Dermot Weld’s Hidden Universe winning in 2010 aged four and the same yard went close again the following season with a four-year-old when Waaheb was sent off 15/8 favourite in receipt of 8lb and was only beaten a short-head with another four-year-old, Jenari, back in third. Hidden Universe became only the second of his age ever to have won this contest two years ago with Royal Rosa being the only other four-year-old to have prevailed here. Two four-year-olds take the plunge and both have good claims as Disko was impressive here 70 days on his only start for Noel Meade (has won three of the last ten renewals in addition to Tiananmen Square who won the inaugural running in 1992) and Charbel is 2-2 for Thomas Mullins winning at Leopardstown and Limerick. However, of the last 16 winners all but three had raced no more than three times under Rules. The only once-raced winner was Sweeps Hill who was the chief beneficiary of Dunguib’s disqualification a few months later. Short List Modus Supasundae Disko Altior Conclusion The home team usually get spanked by the Irish in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper but on the six occasions when the Brits were successful at Cheltenham, they also provided the runner-up and even a 1-2-3-4-5-6 in 2003. This year they had the 1-2-3-4 so they look to hold the aces in this division this season, especially as none of Willie Mullins’ quintet, four of which run again here, could not finish in the first nine at Cheltenham. The runner-up, MODUS, is the form horse and the Brits do well in this race from few runners so it is hard to knock him off a short list. Given the British form is stacking up better than the Irish this season I also want to include ALTIOR for Nicky Henderson especially as his Newbury form was franked by the hard-as-nails Barters Hill at Aintree. DISKO would be unlike Noel Meade’s other winners of this race being a once-raced four-year-old but there was so much to like about his only start when he won well here by 15l that the Gigginstown-owned, Nina Carberry-ridden contender can be filed in the ‘could be anything’ category. I also like the fact they wanted to miss Cheltenham with him to be aimed at this prize instead. Charbel is another unbeaten four-year-old to be respected but as top-six finishers in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper have won this race 11 times, then I have to include the only other qualifier from Cheltenham, SUPASUNDAE. He looked potentially special when beating the Champion Bumper fourth, Yanworth, at Ascot in December looking a real physical beast when trained by Andrew Balding and was subsequently bought by Alan Potts and put away until Cheltenham and pulled too hard for his own good at the Festival so his sixth place finish can be marked up. 6:40 Guinness Handicap Chase This 100,000 euros contest is the big handicap chase of the meeting and don’t be concerned if your fancy failed to finish in the first three last time out as 12 of the last 15 winners failed to occupy a top-three slot on their previous outing yet 12 of the last 18 winners started between second and fourth-favourite which suggests that this is a handicap for plotted-up horses. Following novices in handicap at the big spring Festivals is never a bad thing and they have an eye-catching record in the most valuable handicap chase of the meeting winning seven of the last 16 runnings, Klepht being the latest two years ago at 12/1 who is trying to win it again off a 1lb lower mark and David Mullins taking off another 5lb and he showed he might be coming back to form with a fair effort in the Plate at Cheltenham beaten 13l. A shame that there are no novice representatives this year but Gold Bullet is having just his sixth chase start. He is a horse I like and didn’t stay when thirteenth in the Kim Muir but looked an improving individual when beating Baily Green last time at Clonmel when dropped down to this trip and, although he officially not a novice so doesn’t meet the excellent novice stats, effectively he is given his lack of chase starts. You Must Know Me held every chance when he fell two out in that same contest so I have to also like his chance of running well if I like Gold Bullet. Toon River is chasing a third win in four starts and also respected. Three fairly recent winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival in the Grand Annual, Plate and Arkle Trophy. Philip Hobbs’ Bouchasson followed up his shock 50/1 win in Ayr’s Future Champions Novices’ chase by winning here 15 years ago but that was the last time a British-trained horse proved successful. That said, the Brits have only found one too good in two of the last six seasons. Warren Greatrex sends over Baby Mix who was not disgraced in the Red Rum Chase on his first run for 16 months at Aintree finishing sixth of 17. Nicky Henderson has declared Ericht but he has been disappointing in four starts since he was third to Johns Spirit at Cheltenham in October. Willie Mullins has trained five of the last 11 winners so his top weight Turban clearly requires the closest scrutiny. A faller when in fifth (but well back) in the Topham last time out (in which Art Of Logistics was a well beaten sixth) after finishing tenth in the Grand Annual, his chance is best judged on his defeat of Rubi Light at Clonmel in February. Rubi Light, who would prefer it softer, only got as far as the third in the Grand National but won his previous two races so Turban was beating an in-form horse. However, 12 of the last 16 winners carried under 11st and, in the last ten seasons alone, 33 of the 40 top-four places have gone the way of horses carrying less than 11st so it was some performance for Scotsirish to win off 11st 10lb four years ago. The weight stats also put me off Bright New Dawn, Rathlin and Foil Dubh. Paul Nolan won this race in successive years with Torduff Boy (2002 and 2003) and his Kymandjen only found one too good two years later. He ran King Vuvuzela last year and he ran okay to finish fifth and he is back again off a 3lb lower mark. The winner from 12 months ago is also back and Orpheus Valley is off a similar handicap rating again. In fact, he is 1lb lower and he showed his first piece of worthwhile form since that win last time out when third to Rubi Light. It would appear he is being trained for a repeat. Also returning is last year’s third, Pass The Hat, but he is 12lb higher this year. Short List Gold Bullet You Must Know Me King Vuvuzela Klepht Conclusion I think GOLD BULLET is a horse to follow and I take him to follow up his win at Clonmel. It might have been close between him and YOU MUST KNOW ME had the latter not fallen two out so a sneaky little reverse exacta may also not go amiss here, just in case that form line is the best on offer. I backed KING VUVUZELA in this race last year mainly off the back of Paul Nolan’s record in the race and taking the view that this had been the plan and he ran well enough to finish fifth so I can’t put you off chancing him each-way again at what is likely to be a working man’s price. Of the last two winners of this race who return again, I prefer KLEPHT to Orpheus Valley. Klept was my main fancy when he won this race in 2013 and he looks to have been trained for a repeat having shown more spark at Cheltenham last time. 7.15 Old House, Kill INH Flat Race This is the fifth running of this bumper for horses not to have won under Rules aged five, six or seven. Unlike the Day 1 bumpers, there is more form to dissect as all but four of the 17 runners have run including three who have won a point-to-point; Articulum, who won 38 days ago for Terence O’Brien, Raise A Tail for Jessica Harrington (who bred Articulum) who was scoring on his second try between the flags 134 days ago and, most interestingly given how well David Pipe does at this meeting from few runners, Champers On Ice who won by 12l last month and the stable have turned to Jamie Codd which always catches the eye. The best piece of form under Rules looks to be that of the Dermot Weld-trained First Figaro who was second to Space Cadet in one of the four bumpers at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting. That particular bumper may not have been as strong as usual this year but Weld tends to run his best young horses at that meeting so the fact that he made his debut there is significant to my mind. Also runners-up on their last start are Rosetub, but she is still a maiden after eight starts, Edwulf, who is sent over the Irish Sea by Ben Pauling and given he has a top bumper horse in Barters Hill to measure him against, that makes him interesting on his debut under Rules having been second in a point-to-point in December, and Arkwrisht for Willie and Patrick Mullins for Gigginstown but he was a beaten favourite on both his starts. Exxaro is also worth a mention for Henry de Bromhead having twice finished second in bumpers including to the useful Sub Lieutenant before finishing fourth over hurdles and now returning to bumpers. Short List First Figaro Champers On Ice Edwulf Conclusion Hard to be confident about any of the five non-Grade 1 bumper races at this meeting but I like it when Dermot Weld introduces horses at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting as they are usually well regarded to FIRST FIGARO would be my tentative selection to improve for that initial experience. David Pipe won the Grade 1 bumper at this meeting two years ago and sends over CHAMPERS ON ICE for his debut under Rules having won a point-to-point and as the Brits seem to have the best bumper horses around so far EDWULF also makes it on the shortlist for the very much going-places Ben Pauling stable who know what a good bumper looks like as we have seen with Barters Hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 530 punch gold cup don cossack 99.11 djackadam 98.78 ballynagour 98. 75 easy choice thos one ....this is a very open and classy race but don cossacks facile win lto gives him top rating snd hes very much capable of beating that today so will be hard to beat if he runs his best race don cossack 4pts win 3/1 will hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 530 punch gold cup don cossack 99.11 djackadam 98.78 ballynagour 98. 75 easy choice thos one ....this is a very open and classy race but don cossacks facile win lto gives him top rating snd hes very much capable of beating that today so will be hard to beat if he runs his best race don cossack 4pts win 3/1 will hill exciting race ....don cossack wins .......just a note ericht in next race has been b a cked off boards ...11/1 with ladbrokes!!!......is it going to to be coup of the year ??!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 640 punch guiness chase Wednesday Ericht 98.67 simply wings 98.66 ballyadam approach 98.58 I could try and separate these but its a tough race and all 3 are available at big prices so may as well have the tag team ....simly wings is the form horse overall and should run well with conditions perfect ......ballyadam approach is also in form and looks potentially well treated .....Ericht is a riskier outsider .......n Henderson does well here so strange hes sent this one over and he was running well at the 20f point at chelt before fading last few furlongs ....well treated and return to 20f will suit perfectly .....dark horse ballyadam approach 2pts win 11/1 corals simply wings 2pts win 20/1 corals Ericht 2pts win 25/1 corals ericht ran well ..shame couldnt win after all the money ... ballyadam approach wins at 12/1 ...will get paid at that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 29, 2015 Author Share Posted April 29, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 530 punch thursday world hurdle jezki 99.32 hurricane fly 99.01 dedigout 98.97 this should go to jezki who has the class and form to win this ..will have to get distance but nothin to suggest he cant ....interesting race jezki 4pts win 3/1 lads (free bet if hurricane fly wins ....nice offer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 4.50 Uncle Junior 6/1 William Hill 1 point win. Dangerous to oppose Enda Bolger's horse who looked every bit the winner at Cheltenham, but Uncle Junior is absolutely well in at the weights. After losing the cross country by 5L to Rivage D'Or he's now 23 pounds better off. Patrick Mullins has chosen him over the useful Dogora. Junior is 14 now but that is still a cross country age and he has won the race before. Didn't even want a bet in this race but this horse caught the eye with his position in the market. 5.30 Thousand Stars 14/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. Hurricane Fly and Jezki ought to stay the trip, but will they be grade 1 performers at the trip? Of the 2 I rather Jezki barely. I think Dedigout is a grade 1 performer on soft but not on good to yielding. Thousand Stars has won 2 French Champion Hurdles at this trip so I think 14/1 is a big price. They weren't expecting much from his comeback run (both in their comments and how the horse drifted throughout the day) and I thought he performed well. Between better ground and coming on for the run I think he can go past Dedigout. Very good place claims and can pounce if Jezki and Hurricane don't excel at this distance. 6.40 Just Cameron 33/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. I won't pretend this is anything other than a test of jumping for Un De Sceaux but I'll never back a 1/6 shot. Whenever you have a favourite that short it opens up the rest as an each way proposition. I don't think Smashing is anything special. Just Cameron had the field on the stretch in a recent handicap win off 140. The 6L second in that race ran really well at Aintree since and the rest weren't close. His 2 previous wins were against the very smart Duke of Navan, who recently won a listed handicap off 140 with a ton in hand. This horse has great place claims and if something happens to UDS it can be in the mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd Owned by John Magnier and surely this 5-yr old gelding is trainer Nicky Henderson's best chance of a winner, the 5yr old only has the one start on his CV that being in a bumper (Div-2) at Kempton on the 6th Feb. After that race Mr Henderson would have spoke with his connections and the plan MUST have been to tuck him away and make his next race here at Punchestown. Barry Geraghty took the first spin and again would have returned with a full report and input on where he should run again next, YES this race today is tougher but this animal will know a lot more today than his debut and under the more than capable hands of a certain Nina Carberry horse and jockey must go close. Any showing price of over 9/2 must be worth some investment, any market support would cement the selections chance. ?19:45 Punchestown - Ok Corral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 4.15 Dick Dundee 25/1 bet365 1 point win. Lots of quality at the top of the market here but I just struggle to single any of them out. Good race. This horse ran really well in the Grand Annual to finish 6th, fading up the hill. His general profile over fences is quite encouraging, with lots of creditable performances off decent marks and a 3 out of 11 strike rate. Luke Dempsey claiming the 5 is a massive plus as opposed to Mikey Fogarty who was on last time. 6.05 Kolaphos 33/1 bet365 1 point win. Looks lightly raced and unexposed. Creditable staying on effort recently over 2 miles off 1 pound higher. Should improve for the extra mile and also for the better ground, having won on yielding and good to firm. Guess Again 10/1 Skybet 1 point win. Ran quite well off 137 in the gold cup at Sandown, just didn't see out the 3 miles 5. Now he gets to run a hurdle race off 115. Looks to have plenty in hand on that basis as he was a useful hurdler during his short hurdles career and seems to have improved since then. Mine Now 20/1 bet365 1 point win. Has been campaigned over the Summer so should handle the better ground. Really smart handicapper with 2 recent wins and a really good 4th to I shot the Sheriff who evidently had a lot in hand as he goes to the World Hurdle tomorrow. Was only a neck behind the really smart Mydor there. Stayed on well last time so an extra 2 furlongs has to be viewed as a plus. This horse deserves a spot among the favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3.40 Equity Swap 25/1 skybet .5 point each way 5 places. This horse looks very promising. A 6 year old who improved for moving to Henry De Bromhead last year, winning a reasonable maiden hurdle at Cork. Off 8 months but this horse definitely looks like he'll go on to be better than his 114 mark. Battling Boru 33/1 bet365 .5 point each way 5 places. Dempsey claiming 5 is a massive plus. Was competitive last time off this mark, and is generally very competitive at around this level. Runs off 108, has won off 106, 104 and 100, in good form and with Dempsey on I think he's entitled to get stuck in. 7.45 Solatentif 1 point win coral (enhanced win only) 21/2. Horse looks suited to better ground having won on it and that was a quality 3rd in the bumper at Leopardstown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaker1 Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3:40 Murray Spelman Handicap Hurdle A next to impossible 25-runner handicap hurdle over 2m to kick off Day 3 for moderate handicappers rated no higher than just 123 so very good luck if you want to get involved. Needless to say I haven’t gone through each runner with fine tooth comb (I’ve not heard of over half of them!) so I’ll personally pass on a bet but offer the following token horses for a shortlist with some pretty flimsy reasoning and wait for better opportunities later on the card. Short List Master Appeal Pepparpot Argentino Dandridge Conclusion ARGENTINO represents Willie Mullins, Gigginstown and Bryan Cooper which will enough for some punters and he was closing when he fell last time out though was unlikely to win under Danny Mullins. Cooper was on board when he quickened up well to win two starts earlier. MASTER APPEAL won 17 days ago in a maiden hurdle at Tramore having finished eighth when Argentino won three starts earlier so he has improved plenty since then, mainly for better ground according to John Kiely who now gives him his first run in a handicap. PEPPARPOT has been running well on the Flat this year winning once and finishing second twice and he has his first start over hurdles since August 2013 where he won a Cork maiden so he would appear to have as good a chance as any. DANDRIDGE would be my final guess. Arthur Moore’s charge didn’t find as much as expected when beaten 1½l into third at Leopardstown last time out on soft ground but his best effort came on a decent surface winning and finishing second at Galway. 4:15 Three.ie Handicap Chase Eighteen have been declared for this 2m handicap chase so it is every bit as competitive as the Grand Annual and Red Rum and Ned Buntline tackled both of those events finishing a slightly unlucky fourth at Cheltenham before falling at Aintree, much to McCoy’s disgust, which suggests that he felt he was going well at the time of his departure four out. As with those two contests, he should be suited by the sure-fire fast pace with so many runners and Paul Carberry now takes the ride and his style suits this tricky customer best. Though competitive, this is a less classy race than those contests at the other two spring festivals so if you liked him at Cheltenham and Aintree, you have to like him here. The top weight, Mount Colah, has his chance if you overlook him being pulled up in the Grand Annual which I think you can after he made a mistake and was hampered at a later fence. Prior to that pulled up effort he had won his previous two starts. Willie Mullins has won two of the last seven runnings and is solely represented by the novice Upazo who won at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting so he has plenty in his favour (yard, in form and novice in a handicap). Rated 142 at his best over hurdles, he is off 135 here. Jackonslady also arrives here off a last-time-out win when beating three rivals at Naas but this 10-year-old looks exposed so Ludo Et Emergo appeals more of those successful on their most recent start having stayed on well to win at Limerick so a fast pace can help him. Usa also won last time out in just a four-runner novice chase but he is a second-season chaser so open to less improvement than Upazo. Bold Henry, One Term and Grey Gold are the British raiders. Bold Henry was only 14th in the Grand Annual on his last start having not gone on since winning at Cheltenham earlier in the season, One Term failed to complete in four successive starts before winning at Stratford last time and Grey Gold disappointed at Newton Abbot 26 days ago after running second to Sire De Grugy at Chepstow so all three have unconvincing profiles. Short List Ned Buntline Upazo Ludo Et Emergo Conclusion UPAZO has a lot going for him being an in-form novice for Willie Mullins and I especially like novices in 2m handicaps in the spring but I doubt that the market will miss him. NED BUNTLINE looked like he would take a hand at Aintree until he fell at the cross fence after he was hampered when fourth in the Grand Annual so he is worth a chance and especially if you backed him for either of those races in this less classy affair with Paul Carberry’s quiet riding style expecting to suit him having not ridden since he guided him into second in last season’s Grand Annual. I like his each-way chance. LUDO ET EMERGO is in form and should appreciate the fast gallop so he can go well too. 4:50 FBD Cross Country Chase for the La Touche Cup Some punters won’t touch these races given the added risk of what can go wrong regards taking the wrong course but, overall, I feel they offer backers a real chance and all but three of the last 20 winners were sent off at no bigger than 7/1. Having trained 11 of the last 16 winners, inevitably much of the focus will be on Enda Bolger and his leading light at present in this sphere is Quantitativeeasing who was travelling like a winner until carried out in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap. Bolger also runs Josies Orders. That contest at the Festival was eventually won by Rivage D’Or with Uncle Junior and Dogora not beaten far in third and fourth and has featured a highly-significant seven winners of this prize in the last nine years. At present it is fast ground on the cross country chase will won’t be in Uncle Junior’s favour. Rivage D’Or’s win can be marked up as that was his cross-country debut but he does have to give weight all round here off 12st 3lb in this conditions event and he only had 10st 10lb at Cheltenham. Keep On Track finished second in this race last year where he had Uncle Junior and Quantitativeeasing back in third and fourth but he was trained by the banks king Enda Bolger then and is now with Ian Ferguson. Ballyboker Bridge won a poor running of the P P Hogan in January when Quantitativeeasing disappointed back in fourth at odds-on and has won three of his last four starts for Peter Maher who trained Big Shu to win this race so he is interesting arriving here fresh. The Philip Hobbs-trained Duke Of Lucca (5th) was sent off favourite last year and, bar Famfoni and Galapiat Du Mesnil who both finished second in the early part of the century, the Brits have not has a lot else to shout about and Rose Of The Moon is unlikely to alter that. Short List Quantitativeeasing Ballyboker Bridge Dogora Conclusion I think that QUANTITATIVEEASING would have won at Cheltenham had be not been carried out and he now meets the winner Rivage D’Or on 16lb better terms so is very much the one to beat in my eyes. I have slated him many times in the past for losing touch too early and running on too late, like in this race last year, but I have never seen him travel as sweetly as he did than at the Cheltenham Festival last month so the master cross-country trainer looks to have him in top form this spring. BALLYBOKER BRIDGE has been kept back for this race by his trainer that knows the time of day in this sphere after winning an admittedly poor P P Hogan, but he has time on his side being an eight-year-old. DOGORA can fare best of those that ran at Cheltenham and reverse form with Rivage D’Or at these weights being 10lb off with the winner and also reverse with Uncle Junior who would want it softer. 5:30 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle Here we go again as Hurricane Fly and Jezki take each other once more but this time it should be much more fascinating as both are trying 3m for the first time and they have more than just a couple of opponents. The class of the two former Champion Hurdlers means that they head the market but I don’t see any reason why either shouldn’t stay. Here’s the stats though. Not only have ten of the last 13 winners won over 3m+ but nine of those winners have managed that feat in Grade 1 events where, in theory, the stamina argument becomes even more important given they should attract a better class horse and, in turn, a better gallop placing more emphasis on staying prowess. Two of those exceptions were trained by Willie Mullins. Hurricane Fly won over 2m3½f on heavy ground as just a four-year-old and it looked like he would be aimed at the World Hurdle before he beat Jezki in the Morgiana Hurdle which rather forced their hand to continue down to the 2m route beating the reigning champion at the time so that’s the argument why he will stay. As for Jezki, he has won two Grade 1s over 2m4f (Hatton’s Grace and Aintree Hurdle) and his brother, Jetson, won this race last year so I would say he shouldn’t have a problem with 3m either. Hurricane Fly got the better of Jezki for the fourth time this season when they finished third and fourth in the Champion Hurdle and is the fresher as he bypassed Aintree whereas Jezki was sent to the Aintree Hurdle and looked to be coming off marginally second best to Arctic Fire when his big rival fell at the final flight. Hurricane Fly has the better turn of foot of the two and that could be the difference again though Jezki has a new jockey in Mark Walsh and that could make a difference in his favour as I never thought McCoy and Jezki truly clicked together. His new jockey would be more similar to Geraghty’s riding style who was 5-5 on him. It should be fascinating but it is certainly no two-horse race. Quevega couldn’t reel back Jetson when attempting to win five renewals of this race last season before her retirement so couldn’t become the tenth winning favourite in 14 years. Jetson has twice finished second to Lieutenant Colonel in Grade 1s this season but both were found out in the World Hurdle suggesting that the Irish stayers are a moderate lot this season which makes it even more surprising there is not one single British-trained contender and especially as the Brits have won eight of the last 18 runnings. Amazingly, only one of the last 15 winners ran in the World Hurdle. Lieutenant Colonel didn’t help himself at Cheltenham by racing too keenly ut Bryan Cooper rides Dedigout instead of the Gigginstown runners who has won three Grade 2s on testing ground on his last three starts beating Monksland in the Galmoy, Zaidpour in the Boyne and then Thousand Stars at Fairyhouse at Easter so every drop of rain that falls will be in his favour. That was a good run by the 11-year-old Thousand Stars however on his first run since June and doubtless he’ll be off to France again in the coming The other five runners look out of the depth but his has been a race in which exposed handicappers have caused a shock more than once. Take last year as Jetson’s Cheltenham Festival target before his surprise 20/1 victory here was the Pertemps Network Final, a handicap that has featured three recent winners of this prize who all finished unplaced at Cheltenham. Eleven of the last 12 winners contested races at the Cheltenham Festival notably Quevega whose four wins in this race followed three similarly-emphatic wins in the Mares Hurdle. The only winner in the last decade not to run at the Cheltenham Festival was Fiveforthree. Zabana is the handicapper that could be the one to get into the shake up having finished a close second to the exciting Aux Ptit Soins in the Coral Cup last time out. I Shot The Sheriff beat Ttebbob into second in a good quality 2m6f handicap hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting earlier this month. Short List Dedigout Hurricane Fly Zabana Conclusion Trying 3m for the first time is statistically against HURRICANE FLY and Jezki but in their favour is that the Irish staying hurdle division is weak this season and there are no British runners. I have been disappointed with Jezki this season and thought he would probably have finished second but for Arctic Fire’s fall at Aintree and fancy Hurricane Fly can beat him for the fifth time this season at a meeting where he has won five times before. DEDIGOUT is a big player if the ground turns soft and Bryan Cooper elects to ride this three-time Grade 2 winner this season over the dual Grade 1 winner this season, Lieutenant Colonel. Cooper has chosen the wrong one on many occasions this season but I think he has got this one correct. I thought that Jetson pinched last season’s race to an extent and this is a deeper renewal so he has it all to do to regain his title and if there is to be a shock in a race where handicappers have improved or taken advantage of others being over the top for the season, then ZABANA appeals most as an each-way option at bigger prices after his excellent second to Aux Ptit Soins in the Coral Cup. That winner could be top class and the fourth has since won at Aintree. 6:05 Donohue Marquees Handicap Hurdle If the first handicap hurdle on the card over 2m was next to impossible, this 25-runner three-miler isn’t much easier, if any, but again there is no real quality with a top weight rated 130 which is Wicked Spice who Nicky Richards has sent over attempting to follow up his win at Ayr 13 days ago and I like the booking of Ger Fox taking off 5lb. Only only one of the last ten winners has carried over 11st 4lb though, which includes two of Willie Mullins’ quartet, Avant Tout and Killer Crow. His other pair are Pleasant Company who races bang off 11st 4lb and Sambremont who may be the pick of his squad being a novice open to improvement moving up to 3m for the first time. He was a little disappointing last time but was previously fourth in a weak Grade 2. Also on 11st 4lb is the other British contender, Phare Isles, for the Ben Case yard who won the big 2m handicap hurdle at this meeting last year who is chasing a hat-trick after wins at Huntingdon and Market Rasen, but he is a 43-raced over hurdles ten-year-old (won just three) and this would be a much more competitive race than those he has been winning of late. Short List Guess Again Rogue Trader Sambremont Aengus Conclusion GUESS AGAIN is intriguing close the bottom of the weights. He looked very dangerous up until two out in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday until fading into fifth beaten 6¾l by Just A Par and if that hasn’t taken too much out of him then he is potentially thrown in off 115 over hurdles given he ran so well off 137 over fences at the weekend and has clearly improved for the switch to Tony Martin. His only other run for Martin was when he fell in the Kim Muir when going well which was his first run since the summer for David Pipe. ROGUE TRADER is a progressive young horse who races in the Magnier silks having won three of his five starts so is sure to be well fancied and the extra half-mile could eke out more improvement. The latter comment also applies to SAMBREMONT who is my idea of the pick of the Mullins quartet. AENGUS was beaten when he unseated his rider last time but he is a lightly-raced novice for Noel Meade who was only a 6½l third to Alvisio Ville at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting and then won at Naas so he is a potential improver. 6:40 Ryanair Novice Chase I was correct that Don Poli was the right Mullins odds-on shot to take on this week but unfortunately I didn’t select the right horse to take him on with. Particularly annoying that it was Valseur Lido who won having been with him for the RSA only to see him switch to the JLT. Mullins was clearly right that 3m+ was his trip but I couldn’t back him at this meeting after his Fairyhouse shocker. Un De Sceaux, however, is not a Mullins odds-on shot I want to take on. Only two of the last 20 winners have started at bigger than 6/1 and the impressive Arkle winner should emulate Captain Chris, Moscow Flyer, Tiutchev and Ventana Canyon by completing the Arkle-Ryanair double. Three Arkle winners have been beaten here so the score is 4-3 but they were not 1/6 shots as Un De Sceaux is forecast to be so, if we want a be, it will have to be in the without-favourite market. Upgraded from Grade 2 status into a Grade 1 affair in 1998, the Brits have started to target the race more as a consequence and have a fine record since that elevation in race status and Gods Own became their sixth winner meaning that they have been successful more times than not on the last 11 occasions when they have been represented. Melodic Rendezvous and Just Cameron represent the British this season and connections of the first-named, who was second to Champagne Fever in the Grade 1 bumper at this meeting three years ago, will be hoping for rain but he doesn’t look 100% comfortable over fences to my eyes and Un De Sceaux’s fast gallop and slick jumping is likely to have him in trouble. Just Cameron is worth a shy at a big race having won his last three starts including two defeats of Duke Of Navan who has franked that form with an impressive win at the Scottish Grand National Meeting. Both British-trained runners are a little older than you associate with top class 2m novice chasers as Melodic Rendezvous is nine and Just Cameron a year younger. However, nine winners of this race were are aged eight or older since this race was first run in 1992 which could not compare any more differently to the Arkle where the only two winners aged older than seven since 1988 had the class to be crowned the Champion Chaser the following season (Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe). Perhaps older horses hold their form better at this stage of the season? The Ryanair Gold Cup (formerly the Powers Gold Cup) at Fairyhouse over 2m4f during Easter has featured two of the last seven winners (Big Zeb and Barker) and for much of that contest it looked like the Arkle seventh Smashing would cause an upset but he was caught on the run-in and finished a 2¾l third behind Gilgamboa. He showed lots of zip that day so maybe this drop back to 2m can see him in an even better light. Apart from the Arkle, he also saw the back of Un De Sceaux when he was a 12l second to him in December when he tried to put it up to the favourite. Ted Veale was a bit disappointing in both 2m handicap chases at Cheltenham and Aintree and is back to taking on novices and he has an experience advantage being a second-season chaser. A horse who mixes chases with hurdling, I’m not sure he has been well campaigned since he bolted up in the County Hurdle. The field is completed by Real Steel dropping back to 2m who has not run since he was a poor last of four in a Grade 2 at Naas in February. However, Mouse Morris has his string in much better order now so if he can be got back to the form that saw him finish third in the Grade 1 Drinmore behind Valseur Lido, he has a shout of finishing second as he doesn’t look like he lacks for pace. He did jump out to his right that day though and has not raced on a right-handed course since. Short List Un De Sceaux Smashing Conclusion With UN DE SCEAUX being an unbackable price for most punters, the best option is betting without the favourite and SMASHING appeals most on his Grade 1 third over 2m4f last time out where he led 3 out but was caught half way up the running so this shorter trip could be in his favour. Melodic Rendezvous is a quality hurdler but has not taken to fences as many hoped and he may struggle to lay up unless the ground softens so Just Cameron can fare the better of the British raiders. Ted Veale will probably be ridden to pick up place prize money and see what happens but Real Steel has Grade 1 placed form as well and represents a yard back to form so he could return to form if he can jump straight, unlike the last time he raced right-handed. 7:15 Orchid Transport Mares Novice Hurdle This is the third running of this mares’ novice hurdle. Willie Mullins is so strong in this division over the last few years and he took the inaugural running with an odds-on favourite and is three-handed this time with Uranna, Lyrical Theatre and Whiteout. Uranna was only ¾l behind Lyrical Theatre when they finished fourth and third behind Bitofapuzzle in the Grade 1 mares’ novice hurdle at Fairyhouse three weeks ago so there is little to choose between the pair. I felt that Lyrical Theatre was given too much to do that day being held up in last place so fancy her to confirm placings. Uranna had previously won a Listed Mares Hurdle at Sandown and Lyrical Theatre had finished second in a couple of Grade 3s. The four-year-old, Whiteout, receives a 10lb age allowance but after winning a maiden hurdle in February, she needs to step up markedly on her sixth of nine in a Grade 3 at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting. The other two four-year-olds, Kabjoy and Scooping, also look to have it to do. Warren Greatrex sends over Hannah’s Princess who was second of 17 in the always-competitive EBF Mares Novices’ Hurdle Finale at Newbury and she looks the main threat to the Mullins duo though Melbourne Lady is rated only 5lb off the top-rated Lyrical Theatre buy she has questions to answer having been pulled up in a Grade 3 last time out. Short List Lyrical Theatre Uranna Conclusion LYRICAL THEATRE can confirm Grade 1 finishing positions with URANNA and especially if not ridden too far out of her ground like when they met earlier this month but she still just had the edge that day and it is not difficult seeing that form line being too good for the rest so the Mullins 1-2 forecast has to also be a serious option. Hannah’s Princess would be the one most likely to shake up the most obvious pair. 7:45 Kildare Post INH Flat Race A bumper for horses aged between 4-7 that have won no more than once under Rules which is having its fifth running and all eight contenders have run of which all bar Beau Et Sublime have won so this is likely to throw up a decent horse or two. Jessica Harrington has won two of the four runnings and is represented by Sandymount Duke but he has beaten three times in his four starts so looks exposed. Willie Mullins won it two years ago and is double-handed with Up For Review who did too much too soon in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and Yorkhill whose only bumper run resulted in a win at Gowran Park last month having won a point-to-point. Both are owned by Andrea and Graham Wylie. Henry de Bromhead won the other renewal of this race in 2012 and runs Solatenif who won his bumper last summer but his best form was a close-up third behind Vigil at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting last time out. Nicky Henderson sends over two contenders who both won their only start with Nina Carberry on OK Corral for Susan Magnier and who won at Kempton in February. As the owner likes a bumper runner at this meeting I dare say this has been the plan since. Henderson’s other contender is Newsworthy who is ridden by Jamie Codd and his trainer was talking up this Michael Buckley-owned contender at a recent preview, for what that is worth, who also won his only start in a Kempton bumper in February. Whereas Ok Corral was 5/1 for his debut, Newsworthy was 8/11 for his. Alamein completes the octet for Mouse Morris and he got off the mark at the fourth time of asking last time out at Thurles six weeks ago. The stable had been struggling until recently and he was second to the brilliant Forgotten Rules on his debut at this meeting last year. Short List Newsworthy Yorkhill Alamein Conclusion Newsworthy won his bumper readily at Kempton on soft ground and his breeding suggests he should better on a faster surface and he is preferred to his stablemate Ok Corral. Up For Review has disappointed me twice since he impressed at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting so I would go with the lesser-exposed YORKHILL if choosing between the Mullins pair. Now that ALAMEIN’s stable are in form (even Baily Green almost won a Grade 1 on Tuesday) he could be an interesting each-way proposition if the dead eight stand their ground having won six weeks ago and finishing second of 18 at this meeting last year only finding the current Ascot Gold Cup favourite too good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 530 punch thursday world hurdle jezki 99.32 hurricane fly 99.01 dedigout 98.97 this should go to jezki who has the class and form to win this ..will have to get distance but nothin to suggest he cant ....interesting race jezki 4pts win 3/1 lads (free bet if hurricane fly wins ....nice offer) jezki does the business ...nice result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3.40 Rohans Pride 2/1 William Hill 1 point win. Won this last year and has an outstanding handicap record for a hunter chase of this nature off 123. Jamie Codd is a top amateur to follow, showing a level stakes profit to SP and also gets the ride on plenty of fancied horses. 4.20 Fine Rightly 12/1 .5 point each way Skybet. Thrashed an Ayr handicap before winning a decent chase. Rule the world has improved that form massively with a second in the Irish national off 141, and Fine Rightly gets to run off 140 tomorrow. Tennis Cap 14/1 .5 point each way Paddy Power. Well worth his 145 rating over hurdles and showed he could take to fences with a comfortable win eased right down. Now gets to run off 140 in a chase and could have a few pounds in hand. Blood Cotil 14/1 .5 point each way betfred. Was a massive gamble at Cheltenham, joining the extremely fancied Ned Buntline for favouritism but flopped a bit. Made a bad mistake and also got hampered though so maybe there's more to come. With Townend picking this over Tennis Cap and it being a Mullins horse I am very confident of a bounce back, and this horse could have a lot to come. 4.55 Indian Fairy 14/1 racebets 1 point win. Fair hurdler who really took to fences, winning one race and also falling with every chance in another off 114. Has to race off 117 but I don't think there's much to beat her in this race. JJ Burke a plus considering who has ridden this horse before. 5.30 Arctic Fire 11/2 bet365 1 point win. Mullins loves to talk about this horse as a constant improver and having been only a couple of lengths off Faugheen at Cheltenham and this looking a 2 horse race, I think Arctic Fire is worth a bet at 11/2. Will probably need Faugheen to under perform a little. 6.05 Alpha Des Obeaux 7/1 bet365 1 point win. I'm a big believer in Nichols Canyon but this horse stands out as one to oppose him with. Alpha has had the misfortune to run into Black Hercules, Douvan and Thistlecrack in his last 3 runs. The way I saw it he might have lost by a couple of lengths to Thistlecrack when falling and I think a step down in trip ought to suit. Bound to go close. 7.45 Vital Plot 16/1 .5 point each way William Hill. Penalty kick for On The Fringe to be fair but this horse looks targetted at this race. Wasn't seen to best effect at Cheltenham but ran second in this last year as well as going well before falling at Stratford in their big hunter chase. Has gone very well in points recently so has place claims here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 420 punch thomas crapper 98.76 dremora 98.71 not much value tomorrow so just tackling this one race ....both these two should get the distance and have posted fast times recently ...got all the credentials ...should run well thomas crapper 3pts win 10/1 stan james dremora 3pts win 11/1 stan james Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Custom Cut Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 2.35 Theroadtocroker 12/1 Paddy Power 1 point win. Good 4th in a recent hunter chase, these events are where he excels. Third in this last year by 3L to Sizing Australia but that horse must carry 5 extra this time. The previous year he won a French cross country at the same time of year, and back in 2011 he ran out and fell at the last in 2 cross country events at Punchestown while looking the winner. Clearly he's capable in this discipline and having shown he retains ability in his recent hunter chase I think he has a great chance. Danny Mullins not a bad booking. 3.10 Portrait King 20/1 betfred .5 point each way. Races off 134. Classy animal who won the Eider off 131. Was going OK in the national when falling off 140 and won a handicap off 127 pretty well earlier in the season. Forever Gold 33/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. Has a hurdle rating of 123 earned this season (has form with I Shot the Sherriff and Mydor which has worked out well) and was a good second in a good handicap last time chasing. Essentially has to race off 117 but the new appointment of Luke Dempsey (5) should help him out. 3.50 Pass The Time 100/1 betvictor .5 point each way. Obviously AP's to lose but I think this one can finish second. 2L third in the Sussex Champion Hurdle off 138 is a very nice piece of form to take into this race. 6th in the mares at Cheltenham, was 7th last year. Don't think there's as much between her and all the other's vying for second as the market suggests. 4.25 Pain Au Chocolat 14/1 Coral 1 point win. Disappointed at Cheltenham but King quite likes the horse. Irish juveniles have been very poor and I don't think Qualando is likely enough to back him at that price. His wins before Cheltenham have worked out very well, in particular the defeat of Devilment by 3L. Can really get involved if bouncing back. 5.00 Owega Star 25/1 Coral .5 point each way. Not great in the national but not a disaster. Ran very well in the Paddy Power handicap at Leopardstown as well as the Troytown so has shown he can handle a big race like this. Paul Townend is a big plus. Aupcharlie 25/1 .5 point each way Paddy Power. I fancy this horse has a big handicap in him and with Ger Fox (5) booked today could be the day. Ran well enough in the Plate at Cheltenham, losing by 10L but staying on so the step up in trip should help. 5.35 Mydor 16/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. All this horse has done is improve this season, heavily backed every time it runs and just constantly places or wins. 4/1 for a place is outstanding. Jimmy Two Times 16/1 bet365 .5 point each way 5 places. Showed wonderful toughness to beat Fine Article and Pleasant Company lto, the other 3 horses very well beaten. Another improver and though up 5 pounds has Luke Dempsey replacing Lavery to help get a bit extra out of him. Stonebrook 25/1 .5 point each way bet365 5 places. Looks very unexposed, was only 2L down in a grade 3 handicap at Aintree in his last run off 1 higher. Competitive race but so was his last one so I think he should be a lot shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.