Kentucky Derby

[Master Joe]

PREVIEW FROM USA's OFFICIAL THROUGHBRED HORSE RACING SITE: The first Saturday in May is just days away, and 20 colts are set to run for glory in the 2005 running of the Kentucky Derby. Always the most anticipated horse race of the year, this year’s field is very intriguing. Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of this year’s Derby is the runaway manner in which most of the big prep races were won. Here’s a quick rundown:

11:04 20 run Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) (3yo) (3yo) Winner £853,958.00 1m2f No. Form Horse Trainer Wgt Jockey RPR 1(1) -111832 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=632035',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Sort It Out 14 B Baffert 3 9-0 B Blanc 2(2) 31-3153 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=636161',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Andromeda´s Hero 21 N Zito 3 9-0 R Bejarano 3(3) 133-114 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=606386',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Sun King 21 N Zito 3 9-0 E Prado 4(4) 52-2112 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=635037',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Noble Causeway 35 N Zito 3 9-0 Gary Stevens 5(5) 4-2131 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=636555',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Coin Silver 14 T Pletcher 3 9-0 P Valenzuela 6(6) 11-12 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=633418',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>High Limit 21 R J Frankel 3 9-0 R A Dominguez 7(7) 3-112 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=634697',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Flower Alley 21 T Pletcher 3 9-0b1 J Chavez 8(8) 131-115 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=605475',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Greater Good 49 R Holthus 3 9-0 John McKee 9(9) 5111 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=635668',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Greeley´s Galaxy 28 W Stute 3 9-0 K Desormeaux 10(10) 132-324 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=615946',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Giacomo 28 J Shirreffs 3 9-0 M E Smith 11(11) 11-1311 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=631731',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>High Fly 35 N Zito 3 9-0 J D Bailey 12(12) 122-161 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=603411',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Afleet Alex 21 T F Ritchey 3 9-0 J Rose 13(13) 21-1366 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=626135',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Spanish Chestnut 21 P L Biancone 3 9-0 J Bravo 14(14) 431-343 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=598430',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Wilko 28 Craig Dollase 3 9-0 C Nakatani 15(15) 6-1121 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=633018',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Bandini 21 T Pletcher 3 9-0 J R Velazquez 16(16) 117-11 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=604859',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Bellamy Road 28 N Zito 3 9-0 J Castellano 17(17) 11-2361 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=632181',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Don´t Get Mad 28 Ronald W Ellis 3 9-0 T Baze 18(18) 1322-13 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=631729',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Closing Argument 21 K McLaughlin 3 9-0 C Velasquez 19(19) 1-11275 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=633032',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Going Wild 28 D Wayne Lukas 3 9-0b J Valdivia Jr 20(20) 14-1031 :OWSize('RP_Popup','http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/racing_horse_form.sd?horse_id=633427',620,480,'no','yes','yes')'>Buzzards Bay 28 Jeff Mullins 3 9-0 M Guidry

Bellamy Road won the Wood Memorial by 17 lengths Greeley’s Galaxy won the Illinois Derby by 9 lengths Afleet Alex won the Arkansas Derby by 8 lengths Don’t Get Mad won the Derby Trial by 9 lengths Bandini won the Blue Grass by 6 lengths High Limit won the Louisiana Derby by 4 lengths Sun King won the Tampa Bay Derby by 3 lengths Coin Silver won the Lexington by 3 lengths Never have so many of the important Derby prep races been won by such massive margins. So what does it mean? Well, what it speaks to is the lack of depth in this year’s Derby field. Beyond the first seven or eight top horses, there really aren’t too many animals that appear ready to challenge for the bed of roses. In the last decade or so, Beyer Speed Figures have done a terrific job of helping handicappers decide which horses are capable of winning the Derby. In the last eleven years, the lowest pre-Derby Beyer run by the Derby winner was a 102. The average high pre-Derby Beyer of Derby winners from the past seven years is 107.7. For comparison, only two horses in this year’s field have run above that average, Bellamy Road with a whopping 120 and Afleet Alex with a nice 108. Six others have run higher than a 102, and perhaps most surprisingly, eleven of the twenty horses in this year’s Derby have yet to break the 100 Beyer mark. That statistic really shows the lack of depth the Derby boasts this year. Fortunately for every horse besides Bellamy Road, Beyers don’t mean everything, and there are a number of other considerations that go into creating a Derby winner. Because of the large number of horses in the Derby, it’s nearly impossible to win the race without a great trip. Many horses lose their chance to win before they know what’s happened as they are jostled and bumped going into and around the first turn. I’ll take all the factors into consideration as I examine each horse’s chances of winning the 2005 Kentucky Derby! Let’s start with the favorite and work our way down! Bellamy Road, Post Position 16, Morning Line 5/2, Trainer Nick Zito, Jockey Javier Castellano, Top Beyer: 120 This magnificent looking son of Concerto is a very deserving favorite, and is receiving the backing of most of the respected race analysts. He’s run two races as a 3yo, winning an allowance by 16 lengths and the G1 Wood Memorial by 17 lengths. Those are the two largest 3yo Derby-prep winning margins by a Derby contender ever. The 120 Beyer he received in the Wood is the largest Beyer ever recorded by a Derby contender. If he repeats that race he is unquestionably your 2005 Derby winner. But it’s not that simple. He won both of his 3yo races while unchallenged on the lead. When a horse that is used to running alone on the lead is challenged early or has to run behind horses, no knows how it will react. As a 2yo, Bellamy Road was able to rate behind other horses in his first race, but in his third race he folded like a napkin in the G1 Breeders Futurity when he was challenged. The other question pertains to the fact that he only has two prep races as a 3yo going into the Derby. Historically, horses with only two races as a 3yo haven’t fared well in terms of winning the Derby. They typically lack the seasoning needed to compete in a field of 20 horses going a mile-and-a-quarter for the first time. Of course, there’s never been a two-prepper as talented as or as fast as Bellamy Road, so he may just be the one to break that trend. Bottom Line: If Bellamy Road is able to rate comfortably behind other horses and is able to deal with the large field, he’s your 2005 Kentucky Derby winner. Those two things occurring, however, are far from a lock. Afleet Alex, PP 12, ML 9/2, Timothy Ritchey, Jeremy Rose, Top Beyer: 108 The likely second choice behind Bellamy Road, this horse is coming of a monster 8-length victory in the G1 Arkansas Derby, the same race that propelled Smarty Jones to Derby glory. Afleet Alex ran a very good 108 Beyer in that race and it stamped him as the clear-cut second choice behind Bellamy Road. And he is the opposite of his main rival in a two very important ways. The first is their difference in running style. Bellamy Road likes to run near the front while Afleet Alex prefers to be closer to the rear of the field. This could result in trouble for Afleet Alex. His jockey, Jeremy Rose, is a young rider in his first ever Kentucky Derby. In this horse’s biggest race as a 2yo, the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Rose took him 5-wide around both turns and probably moved a bit prematurely. That resulted in a second-place finish when he was probably the best horse in the field. There were only eight horses in that field, and there will be 20 in the Derby. The other difference between the two main favorites is one that favors Afleet Alex. Of the main contenders, he clearly has the most seasoning. He ran six times as a juvenile (with four wins and two seconds), and this will be his fourth race as a 3yo. Where another horse might freak out and lost interest if he got bumped a few times, Afleet Alex should be a pretty cool customer. Bottom Line: Despite the fact that he is well-seasoned and one of the fastest horses in the field, I am very scared at the thought of Jeremy Rose trying to navigate his way through a 20-horse field in his first Kentucky Derby. It’s very possible that Afleet Alex could be well wide on both turns, and it would take a freak of a horse to overcome that type of trip and win. If he does get a clean trip, he certainly has the speed and experience to win. Bandini, PP 15, ML 6/1, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, Top Beyer: 103 Rounding out the clear-cut top three (at least in terms of probably odds) is Bandini, son of 2000 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. After running only once as a juvenile, he has really strutted his stuff as a 3yo, winning three of four starts including a convincing 6-length victory in the G1 Blue Grass. Many people thought before the race that it was the top Derby prep, but the 103 Beyer that Bandini earned in victory was a lot slower than most people expected. That win was his first stakes victory, but it certainly won him over a lot of bettors. He sports one of the top trainer/jockey combinations in the Derby with Pletcher and Velazquez. One thing in his favor is that he has a lot of tactical speed, which means that he shouldn’t have too much trouble finding a good spot early in the race. Tactical speed has proven a key element for recent Derby winners, with both Smarty Jones and Funny Cide using terrific tactical speed en route to impressive Derby victories. The concerns with Bandini are that the Blue Grass came out a much slower race than people thought it would be, and the fact that his race pattern indicates that he might be a possible regression candidate. He had eight weeks off before the Blue Grass, and now he runs back only three weeks after that performance. Bottom Line: There isn’t a whole lot not to like about Bandini, from his great trainer and jockey to his impressive breeding to his dominating win in the Blue Grass. The main question to me concerns whether or not he will move forward from the Blue Grass and improve in the Derby. I have my doubts. High Fly, PP 11, ML 8/1, Nick Zito, Jerry Bailey, Top Beyer: 102 One of Zito’s five entrants in the Derby, this one is probably the surest commodity of them all. After winning both his starts as a juvenile, he’s won three of four starts as a 3yo including impressive wins in the G2 Fountain of Youth and the G1 Florida Derby. He’s run two Beyer figures equal to or greater than 100, and in the Florida Derby it was clear that jockey Jerry Bailey didn’t ask him for run until deep stretch. Like Bandini, he has tremendous tactical speed, and breaking from the 11-post his Hall-of-Fame jockey should have him in excellent position going into the first turn. Many people say that he knows where the finish line is, which is to say that despite his somewhat slow wins, the important thing is that he seems to do only what he has to do to win. One cause for concern is his five-week layoff heading into the Derby, which history hasn’t worked very well. That could make him revved up at the start and hard-to-handle for Bailey, but with a great trainer like Zito (won the Belmont off five-weeks rest with Birdstone last year) I don’t think it will be a huge problem. Bottom Line: At his probable odds of 8/1 – 10/1, High Fly is a very safe bet to run in the top three. And if Bellamy Road doesn’t like being challenged early and Afleet Alex runs into traffic problems (both somewhat likely scenarios), High Fly could become the horse to beat in the stretch. Noble Causeway, PP 4, ML 12/1, Nick Zito, Gary Stevens, Top Beyer: 100 The third Zito horse we’ve discussed so far, Noble Causeway has become a bit of a wise-guy horse heading into the Derby. Despite the fact that he’s never won a stakes race, he’s displayed steady progression in each of his six career starts, culminating with his 2nd-place finish to stablemate High Fly in the G1 Florida Derby. That run earned him a career best 100 Beyer, and it’s not out of the question that he will improve again in the Derby. He is by red-hot first-year sire Giant’s Causeway and should have no problems with the mile-and-a-quarter distance. He likes to come from off-the-pace, and he should receive a good trip under the calm guidance of Gary Stevens. Bottom Line: While an improvement is likely, I would be very surprised if Noble Causeway won the Derby, but if he gets a great trip from Stevens I could see him plodding up for 3rd or 4th. High Limit, PP 6, ML 12/1, Bobby Frankel, Ramon Dominguez, Top Beyer: 105 No horse has quite polarized handicappers and analysts like High Limit. After two sensational victories at Delaware Park as a juvenile, he romped to a 4-length victory in the G1 Louisiana Derby in his 3yo debut. He led from start-to-finish in all three of those races, which made people question whether he could comfortable rate behind other horses. In his final Derby prep, he looked very comfortable sitting behind Spanish Chestnut in the G1 Blue Grass, and moved by him around the final turn, but Bandini blew by both of them en route to his 6-length score. High Limit finished 2nd with a tepid 93 Beyer. So in one corner you have people that think his Lousiana Derby win was the product of a super-fast track at the Fair Grounds that day and believe the real High Limit showed up in the Blue Grass. On the other hand you have people who believe that every horse is allowed a clunker once in a while, and point to his 105 Beyer figure (4th among this year’s contenders) as proof that he has a chance of springing an upset. One thing that certainly won’t hurt him is Hall-of-Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. In addition, he drew a favorable post position and should get a nice spot under up-and-coming jockey Ramon Dominguez. Bottom Line: I believe that High Limit is capable of improving off his scintillating run in the Lousiana Derby, but the question is whether it will come in the Derby, especially since he only has four career starts to his resume. Reports are that he’s been training great and looks fantastic physically heading into the race, and I’d rate him just behind High Fly as the second-most-likely horse to win if the two favorites run into problems. Sun King, PP 3, ML 15/1, Nick Zito, Edgar Prado, Top Beyer: 104 In my mind this is the hardest horse to handicap in the entire field. Up until Bellamy Road’s demolition of the Wood Memorial, Zito told anyone who would listen that Sun King was his top 3yo. Part of me wonders if he still believes that is true. After a very nice juvenile campaign that culminated with a 1-length loss in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Sun King ripped off a 104 Beyer in his 3yo allowance debut. At that point he was Derby contender numero uno on most people’s lists. But then it started to get strange. His next start came in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, a field which he towered over. Usually a stalker, Sun King went straight to the lead in that race, repulsed a challenge around the final turn, and won by a comfortable margin of 3 lengths. However, the final time was slow and he only earned a 91 Beyer. His backers insisted that he only did what he needed to in order to win, but then in his next start he ran even slower in the G1 Blue Grass, losing by 8 lengths with an 88 Beyer. Prado gave him an awful ride that day and Zito thought he didn’t handle the track, but that still doesn’t completely explain away his poor performance. Bottom Line: Once thought the top of the 3yo crop, Sun King’s last two performances have dropped him in most people’s eyes. That being said, his 104 Beyer to start the year shows that he’s fast enough on his day to run a big race in the Derby, and I will be playing this horse in exactas and trifectas. Greeley’s Galaxy, PP 9, ML 15/1, Warren Stute, Kent Desormeaux, Top Beyer: 106 Three years ago War Emblem came into the Kentucky Derby off a 112 Beyer in the Derby, was completely ignored by the bettors (20/1), and cruised to a convincing score. Although Greeley’s Galaxy’s 106 Beyer in his 9-length Illinois Derby romp isn’t quite as impressive as the one that War Emblem put up, the lesson shouldn’t be lost on bettors. It does look, however, like this horse will go off somewhere in the vicinity of 20/1, and speed handicappers would be well-advised to put a few George Washington’s on him. One thing working against him is his lack of seasoning, as he didn’t run as a juvenile and he only has four races under his belt with the Illinois as his only stakes run. One also must consider that Stute has very little experience getting a horse ready for a huge race like this. He did draw a favorable post position and has very good tactical speed, so a clean trip might be in the offing. Bottom Line: If this horse was trained by a Zito, Pletcher, or Frankel he would be around 6/1 for the Derby. Yes he’s not very experienced, but neither are Bandini nor High Limit, and Greeley’s Galaxy has run faster than both of them. He could run in-the-money at a very nice price if Stute is able to get him ready for the race (not a small if). Those are the eight horses that I think have shots to win the 2004 Kentucky Derby, and now I am going to quickly discuss the other 12 competitors. Coin Silver, PP 5, ML 20/1, Todd Pletcher, Pat Valenzuela, Top Beyer: 99 Bottom Line: This horse is improving at the right time for Pletcher, but people seem split on whether his romp in the G2 Lexington was a result of the sloppy conditions (he’s bred to love the mud) or if he truly made a huge step forward and will move forward again. Even if you believe the latter of the two, I don’t think he’s fast enough to win the Derby. I could, however, see him improving enough to compete for 4th or maybe even 3rd. That’s still a long-shot though. Flower Alley, PP 7, ML 20/1, Todd Pletcher, Jorge Chavez, Top Beyer: 95 Bottom Line: This colt has a lot working against him, from his slow Beyers to his 8-length loss in the Arkansas Derby to his lack of experience (only four career races). I don’t see him being much of a factor in the Derby. Greater Good, PP 8, ML 20/1, Bob Holthus, John McKee, Top Beyer: 95 Bottom Line: Before his 12-length loss in the Arkansas Derby, this colt had won three straight slow stakes races and was getting a lot of support as a horse that only did what he needed to win. After that loss, most people jumped off his bandwagon, while some contended that he was washed-out and didn’t run like he could that day. I agree that he wasn’t his normal self in that one, but he’s still too slow to endorse for the Derby. Wilko, PP 14, ML 20/1, Craig Dollase, Corey Nakatani, Top Beyer: 98 Bottom Line: It’s hard to toss the 2004 Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion, but he simply hasn’t run fast enough to warrant consideration for the top spot. People love his grit and tenacity, but I’ll show you horses just as tenacious in allowance races. The Derby is about speed, and I don’t think he has enough to break into the trifecta. Buzzard’s Bay, PP 20, ML 20/1, Jeff Mullins, Marc Guidry, Top Beyer: 98 Bottom Line: Winner of one of the slowest Santa Anita Derby’s of all time, Buzzards Bay has drawn one of the worst posts for the Derby. So far all of the successful California 3yo’s have lost badly in out-of-state Derby preps, and that doesn’t bode well for this horse’s chances. Don’t Get Mad, PP 17, ML 30/1, Ron Ellis, Tyler Baze, Top Beyer: 98 Bottom Line: Coming into the Derby off an unconventional one-week rest, Don’t Get Mad won last week’s Derby Trial in visually impressive (7-length) yet slow (98 Beyer) fashion. It’s very hard to see him improve much off that figure working on only one-week rest, and he will probably have a tough go of it on Saturday. Closing Argument, PP 18, ML 30/1, Kiaran McLaughlin, Cornelio Velasquez, Top Beyer: 98 Bottom Line: For those that want to bet Wilko to complete their trifecta or superfecta because of his grit, here’s a horse that has just as good a chance but is at much more appealing odds. Well seasoned, he’s never been out-of-the-money in 7 career starts, he beat High Fly to start the year, and he finished 3rd in the Blue Grass. He has little chance to win, but you could do a lot worse than throwing him in the bottom of your trifectas and superfectas. Sort it Out, PP 1, ML 50/1, Bob Baffert, Brice Blanc, Top Beyer: 96 Bottom Line: Baffert’s only Derby horse has fizzled in his last three starts after winning the Whirlaway at Aqueduct in February with a 96 Beyer. While he has zero chance to win and very little chance to finish top-three, he’s not much different to me than some of the 20/1 shots in here like Flower Alley and Buzzard’s Bay. Andromeda’s Hero, PP 2, ML 50/1, Nick Zito, Rafael Bejarano, Top Beyer: 94 Bottom Line: I’ve seen one highly respected analyst (Steve Haskin) touting this horse as a possible bomb for the exotics, but I really can’t see it. He couldn’t even finish top-three in a weak allowance in February, and he lost to Afleet Alex by 9 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. His pedigree is loaded with stamina, however, and if the race completely falls apart on the front end I suppose it’s conceivable he could plod up to fill out the superfecta. Giacomo, PP 10, ML 50/1, John Sheriffs, Mike Smith, Top Beyer: 98 Bottom Line: Unsuccessful in four California stakes races, I find it very hard to see him challenging for a top-five finish in the Derby. He might be the second-best California horse in the race (after Wilko), but that only means he might finish 10th instead of 16th. Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild Bottom Line: I am lumping these two California rabbits in together because they probably will finish right next to each other at the back of the pack. Spanish Chestnut is being entered to try and disrupt Bellamy Road early in the race, and Going Wild, well, I really have no idea why he was entered. Neither horse has run higher than an 81 Beyer in their most recent two starts. Summary: If all of those horses run to form I think the top three finishers will be Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, and High Fly, in that order. However, as I detailed earlier, Bellamy Road could fold under early pressure from a number of speedy challengers, and Afleet Alex could suffer a bad ride from first-time Derby jockey Jeremy Rose. If both those things occur, look for High Fly, High Limit, Sun King, Bandini, and Greeley’s Galaxy to contest the top three spots. For those that insist on predictions, here’s my gut instinct on the top five: 1) High Fly 2) Afleet Alex 3) High Limit 4) Bellamy Road 5) Sun King

[stereoman]

Re: Kentucky Derby Did anybody watch it on ATR? Couldn't believe it....Giacomo, the winner was avaialable at 53/1?! :unsure

[Master Joe]

Re: Kentucky Derby Yes I did mate, absolutely amazing!! Giocomo was second last I think going into the Clubhouse Turn, at least twenty lengths off the leaders who just simply went way too fast, it was just physically impossible to keep up that pace up front and if any of the leaders deserves credit, it was Closing Argument who was up there throughout and under the circumstances produced an outstanding effort to finish second. Well Done to Giocomo, but I seriously doubt if he is going to be good enough to win the Preakness in two weeks as he had the run of the race here, and with a smaller field and a more tactical affair I think he could struggle. The Preakness Stakes at Pimlico is the next race of the Triple Crown on the 21st of May.