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JuMeSyn

J-League 2015

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Re: J-League 2015 Small stakes to start the road Gamba Osaka @ 2.00 for a 0.6 stake Gamba Osaka are the current J-League and will be facing FC Tokyo in the J-League first round. One could argue that they have to meet expectations and start the season with a convincing win and that adds some pressure on them, but Gamba Osaka is a very experienced side that knows how to manage these emotional needs. They are well led by Kenta Hasegawa on the bench and have a terrific team with very good depth. Usami, Endo and Higashiguchi will be crucial to the team's success this season, as well as Patric and Omori, and all of them will start tomorrow. Although Gamba Osaka are failing in the ACL playoffs, they already won the Supercup against Urawa Reds last week (2-0) and they actually played reasonably well. FC Tokyo have rising star Muto with them but doubts arise if he will actually step up to meet the expectations and stop with the magazine interviews which are actually disrupting his football performance. Moreover, they lost two key defenders for this season and might as well have some trouble in back. Even though Edu and Watanabe left, they got Japan-capped Maeda from Jubilo Iwata, which will keep on scoring goals for the team. Last season, I do remember Gamba Osaka were priced 1.80 for this one and won 2-1, and currently at 2.00 they have to be value. I believe they will manage expectations and win tomorrow to start their J-League campaign as they deserve. They seem great upfront as always against a Tokyo FC team with some newcomers in the back that might have trouble to settle in and that will be decisive tomorrow. Vissel Kobe x Kashiwa Reysol BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 2.20 for a 0.4 stake Vissel Kobe finished 12rd last season after a pretty impressive start. Frontline with Pedro Junior and Marquinhos was outstanding till it lasted, but crumbled in the second half of the season. But Vissel Kobe has another idea for this season. Although they did not get any new and important players, the got manager Nelsinho from Kashiwa Reysol which, IMO, is the best manager of the J-League when he wants. If he is fully motivated, Kobe have to be a dark horse for the title. He should be able to get the best out of his players in order to boost a challenge. And who is he going to play first? His former club! Kashiwa Reysol are a team with good attacking options and current manager has an attacking philosophy. They have been attacking well and Asian Champions League signs point out that they are going to be much more known by their attacking phase than by defending. And at the moment, they still seem mediocre at that. A team from Thailand managed to score them twice, for example. Both teams look strong upfront at Kashiwa Reysol actually looked very good at that in the ACL, so I expect them to be okay tomorrow in terms of goal proficiency against a very quality-lack defensive line of Vissel Kobe. Nelsinho still did not have to time to keep the line organized and boost the players qualities to their maximum, so they might as well concede. However, Nelsinho knows his former players well and will definitely be able to stop them for most of the time, and he also knows what he needs to score them a goal. And if Pedro Junior and Marquinhos, well supported by playmaker Morioka are at their best, and with Kashiwa Reysol trouble in defending at the moment, this one might as well be the goals galore of the first week of J-League. I'm expecting something like a 2-1, 2-2, 1-2 scoreline so I would say 2.20 on the BTTS + Over 2.5 is my bet.

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Re: J-League 2015 Kashiwa Reysol Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.96 (Unibet) for a 0.8 stake It has been said that Kashiwa will rotate the squad a bit for this one as a very important match for the ACL follows next tuesday but honestly, I don't think they will. One or another position, but main squad should play, mainly big strikers Leandro Montera and Masato Kudo, hard-worker Cristiano and criative Yuki Otsu (which strangely didn't play last match against Kobe). Kashiwa Reysol look a bit leaky at the back, but they are looking very good offensively. Won 1-0 away against Kobe and actually played better and were the only team to have goal-scoring chances. Kashiwa are also good in ACL, especially in offense as well. I'm expecting a strong Kashiwa which the motivation to stay in the top of the table. They are a club with a winning identity, I can't see them rotate and I expect them to start with high tempo and up in the pitch to gain a good advantage and to manage their legs in the 2nd half. Moreover, Vegalta Sendai is a very average team for J-League 1, and even though they won against Montedio Yamagata at home last matchday (2-0), one must know that Yamagata is the equivalent of Tokushima Vortis last season...and even though they only won in the last 10 minutes of match, and did not play that well. Even at their best (they could score, Wilson Rodrigues is a dangerous one), I can't see them with the weapons to keep Leandro Montero and/or Kudo from scoring, and the attacking volume of Kashiwa Reysol at the start of this season has been very impressive. Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.96 (Unibet) are solid odds and I'm going for it.

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Re: J-League 2015 Otsu had been playing regularly in ACL, and playing well. It's quite strange he is not given the opportunities in J-League atm. He's class. Didn't really expect Leandro not even in the bench. That's what killed the bet IMO. He makes the difference. Another loss.

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Re: J-League 2015 Yes, Leandro is essential for they, but Reysol didn't created many chances to score, they had the possesion, but they didn't made great things with the ball. Don't give up, it's still the beginning of the season. I don't heard anything about some injury of Leandro. Tomorrow I think Urawa can win by a large margin. I don't see many goals at Antlers versus Shonan. Kashima suffers a lot without Davi, they don't have a powerful centre forward right now. Bellmare have lost good striker Wellington. He wanted more money after his last season performances. He is now in Brazil Serie A at Ponte Preta. So, under 2.5 here. Frontale vs Vissel should go over. You know Kawasaki is great in front of the goal with Renatinho, Okubo and Yu Kobayashi. Also, the new comer Elsinho made an immediat impact against F-Marinos. Vissel have Pedro Junior and Marquinhos in attack and Nelshino on the bench of course.

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Re: J-League 2015 Yeah I'm still betting on J-League of couse. Also, I always fight against the higher margins and you will rarely see me shout about an odd below evens (actually that was the case, but 1.96 is very close to evens, I never go below 1.90 honestly), so it is normal that I usually get to lose more than what I win, but long term it has been efficient for me. However February and March are really killing my bookies bank so far. Usually are solid months, but not this time. -1.8 currently here, even though it is only -1.10 in truth, as I had some bets I didn't share here (Nagoya x Matsumoto Yamaga Over 2.5 + BTTS for example). I have three more bets for tomorrow, but even though I am a bit scared to share as what I share, I lose, let's go for another round and I'm sharing two of them... Urawa Reds AH -1.5 @ 2.3 (Unibet) for a 0.5 stake I took it during the morning when it was 2.5. Also took the AH -1.25 and the Over 2.5 TG with small confidence, but AH -1.5 is what I recommend here. Urawa Reds like a choke once in a while and one would say that this match is perfect for it. Montedio Yamagata are a new team in J-League after they were promoted from J-League 2 on playoffs. They ended their season in 6th and actually secured a playoff spot on the last day. They were the weakest team, and actually managed to qualify to J-League 1! But just like Consadole Sapporo in 2012, Oita Trinita in 2013 and Tokushima Vortis in 2014, and even though they got some 2/3 good signings, they are the weakest link of the J-League. Their squad is the worst and all they can expect is that other teams are worst than them and that they can win most of their home matches against bottom half teams to secure it. The difference in individual quality between both sides is gigantic. Urawa Reds comes from a win in a very difficult field (Shonan Bellmare 3-1) and after being down by 1 goal. Urawa looked great and delivered a great response after they conceded, something that I would not expect. They also have some big quality players upfront and even though one or another crucial player is doubtful (heard Kashiwagi might not play), they should have enough to disrupt a very fragile Montedio Yamagata. Last year, odds for Urawa to win against Tokushima Vortis here, even though the climateric conditions were strange in that day, were 1.20-1.25 I believe. This one was 1.53 in some bookies yesterday and I do rate Montedio Yamagata of the same quality as Tokushima Vortis. Currently odds for Urawa to win are 1.44, still a bit above of what I rate as a correct odd for tomorrow (would be 1.30 for me). One should also tread carefully here as an ACL match follows in Wednesday and they might just play a slow tempo at some moments, and that is why I lower the stake. Other cautious people might also punt the AH -1.25, which is still above evens and has a touch of value. Kawasaki Frontale and Over 2.5 @ 2.50 (bet365) for a 0.5 stake Another good value here. Kawasaki Frontale won the first match against Yokohama F Marinos by 3-1 away. Yokohama are tough to beat on any given day, so this was a great result to start the season. Kawasaki played really well and attack seems to be as good as it always was. Okubo, Renatinho and Kobayashi are superior weapons and can cause havoc on any defensive line of J-League. I'm expecting them to keep the momentum tomorrow against a weakened Vissel Kobe which, even trained by Nelsinho, was a very disappointing side in matchday 1. They lacked cohesion in defence and criativity upfront, and I can't see that change for tomorrow's match, even though their attack is so good (Pedro Junior and Marquinhos supported by Morioka) that they can click at any moment. I'm expecting a match with some goals as both teams are stronger upfront than at the backline, but Kawasaki Frontale are a very strong side, have all the momentum here and usually don't miss chances at home, where they very, very strong. Most possible scorelines are 2-1, 3-1 or maybe a 3-0 if Vissel don't click at all which could happen so a 2.50 on Kawasaki + Over 2.5 is my bet.

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Re: J-League 2015 Zlatan and Tanadari Lee again not even on the bench for Urawa. They have a great squad depth. Kashiwagi back in the starting line-up. He and Ishihara wil suport Koroki today. I think Lee and Zlatan are players only for ACL. On the other hand, Nelsinho decided to drop Marquinhos on the bench. Seems former FC Tokyo Kazuma Watanabe will play as centre forward today.

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Re: J-League 2015 -2.8 currently. Really bad start. Might only have a punt on next matchday unless I'm feeling confident. Funny though, I actually got to win the only bet I didn't place here, which was BTTS in Yamaga x Hiroshima. Wasn't that confident about it and actually won. But from both bets, I could have won them in the last minute. Urawa hit the post and had another great chance between the 87th and the 93rd minute, while Kawasaki had a big chance to seal it in the 92nd minute. They took 4 shots during an attack and it didn't go in. Sometimes luck is also a factor. I've also had wins during the last gasps of a match so one shouldn't complain too much about. But I'm actually a bit unlucky during those moments lately.

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Re: J-League 2015 We have Nabisco Cup in the midweek. The match of the round is Nagoya vs Frontale. Should be a goals galore, but surely will be some changes in the starting line-ups. I will wait for the line-ups. Sorry, I can't edit. Min. 20 posts.

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Re: J-League 2015 I like the fighting spirit of Yamaga and that Brazilian guy Obina replaced very well Funayama, who is now at Frontale. He was the top scorer of the team in the last season. Also, they have brought Ikemoto, who did pretty well in J2 last season for Giravanz. He has potential for J-1. Yamaga it's also very strong at set pieces. They scored many goals after set plays and not only at corners, but also after throw-ins. They have in the team the Rory Delap of Japan, Yuzo Iwakami. His throw-ins are crosses, in fact. Sure, Sagan it's the favorite and they have also good players. That Korean guy Kim Min-Woo it's really good, but this is a league cup game and Yamaga should be more motivated as they come from J-2. Anyway, I wait for the line-ups because I don't have any idea what plans have the coaches. Many changes are made in this competition. About changes, I think Funayama and Sugimoto will replace Okubo and Yu Kobayashi in the starting line-up of Frontale. Both are decent strikers and Kazama can give them some minutes. Only a supposition.

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Re: J-League 2015 I also had the feeling that Yamaga would cause an impact in J1. They have some good offensive weapons upfront but they seemed to lack a bit against Hiroshima, but IMO that was just an indicator that Hiroshima will be in the top until the dying moments of this season. And their defensive line is a big worry. They haven't seemed that organized against Nagoya and Hiroshima.

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Re: J-League 2015 I think Hiroshima and Nagoya are to another level in term of players. Sagan is not a big club. They made those great results in the past two seasons thanks to their South-Korean manager, who was sacked in the summer in strange circumstances.

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Re: J-League 2015 I forgot to mention. The Brazilian of Nagoya, Leandro Domigues it's injured again and he already flew to Brazil to recover there. Surely Grampus will miss his great vision and creativity. It's one of the most important players of the team, but Nagoya can score goals without him.

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Re: J-League 2015 Big turnover by coach of Yamaga. Sagan also with a lot of reserves. Top scorer Toyoda not even on the bench. Kim benched. Frontale with the best squad. Nagoya without injured Danilson and Nova benched.

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Re: J-League 2015 alexis1016 actually knows a bit more than me and I'm suspicious that he knows a lot of japanese...but is just a lot of search and dedication :) Kawasaki 1 - Nagoya 1 on HT. thinks looking good for my Over 2.5 + BTTS. Oh alexis1016, even with Leandro Domingues Nagoya have everything to score goals. Nagai and Novakovic era strong players, Nagai especially is such and underrated player, love him.

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Re: J-League 2015 I wish I know Japanese, but even the foreigners who are there from 3-4 years don't know very well the language. It's a difficult one for the Europeans. Thanks to Google translate I read the news in Japanese. Yeah, Nagoya it's great even without the Brazil playmaker. Nagai was very good as well the replacement of Nova, Kawamata. In the weekend Nagoya plays at home against Antlers, who are playing now in China in the ACL. Nagoya should score twice there. 2.25 at bet365. Also, a win seems to be a good bet. Odd 2.61. JuMeSyn. I know a lot about this league. You know that thing about Montedio is like Consadole, Oita and Vortis. I thought the same thing at first view (I bet Urawa over 2.5 against them), but I don't know what to say after I saw them. It seems they are not so weak like the other teams who promoted after play-off. That new guy from Brazil, Alceu was pretty good in front of the defense. But let's wait the next few games. They will host Frontale on Sunday.

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Re: J-League 2015 Think Nagoya could score twice against the Antlers? I would go for the Overs only instead. Kashima sometimes show up and Nagoya at home not so great. They play better away for a reason, they enjoy the counter-attacking style and the exploit of the big players individual skills like Nagai (best player for me, pace, creative, dribbling, fast), Leandro Domingues (great dribbling) and Kawamata (pace and finishing as well). Novakovic also a good finisher. At home they seem to lack something...maybe it is because they have to have possession. Last year they were the second worst team at home, but away they were the best team in J-League. Regarding Montedio...they won today as well, very surprising. You might just be right at that but they were so poor against Vegalta. Still think they are the worst team of the league though, among Ventforet and Vegalta.

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Re: J-League 2015 Yes, you may be right about Nagoya, but they also can score goals at home and with Novakovic as target man are more chances. He will dominate the Antlers defenders in the air. Also, Tulio very dangerous in the air. He goes forward often and not only at set pieces. Today hit the post after a corner. We will see the real potential of Montedio against Kawasaki...

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Re: J-League 2015 Japan » J. League » Sunday 22 March 2015

Sunday 22 March 2015 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Albirex Niigata v Kashiwa Reysol (05:00 GMT) 2.88 3.4 2.68 101.45 %
maximize.gif Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Urawa Red Diamonds (05:00 GMT) 2.76 3.35 2.75 102.45 %
maximize.gif Shimizu S-Pulse v Matsumoto Yamaga FC (05:00 GMT) 2.06 3.65 3.9 101.58 %
maximize.gif Ventforet Kofu v Gamba Osaka (05:00 GMT) 3.75 3.4 2.16 102.37 %
maximize.gif Yokohama F. Marinos v Sagan Tosu (06:00 GMT) 2.32 3.4 3.45 101.50 %
maximize.gif Shonan Bellmare v Vegalta Sendai (07:00 GMT) 2.28 3.45 3.4 102.26 %
maximize.gif Nagoya Grampus v Kashima Antlers (08:00 GMT) 2.68 3.6 2.7 102.13 %
maximize.gif Vissel Kobe v FC Tokyo (08:00 GMT) 2.8 3.45 2.65 102.44 %
maximize.gif Montedio Yamagata v Kawasaki Frontale (10:00 GMT) 4.33 3.85 1.88 102.24 %

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Re: J-League 2015 Shimizu S-Pulse x Matsumoto Yamaga Over 2.5 + BTTS @ 2.20 (bet365) for a 1.0 stake This is so easy to predict that it might as well end up 0-0 or 1-0, that is what is happening around here lately. Shimizu S-Pulse are with 4 points and still no losses, which is quite surprising for a team that ended up last season in 15th spot. They won against Kashima Antlers 3-1 at home, in a match that they were a bit lucky as Kashima were offensively better and had tons of chances but no finishing touch. Shimizu S-Pulse were great on the counter and on taking their chances. They held Niigata to a bore 0-0 draw but reports indicate Niigata were marginally superior and maybe deserved to win. Don't get me wrong but even though Shimizu S-Pulse only conceded once against the Antlers and held Niigata to a 0-0 draw, they are not your typical defensive team. The lack quality in the back individually and as a team. The players and staff are the same that gave Shimizu S-Pulse the title of second worst defensive team of J-League (1,76 goals conceded per match). If they don't get new signings or change their defensive processes, I expect another season with a lot of goals conceded. Matsumoto Yamaga are a team that can boost some impact during this season. They are a spirited force and even though they lack quality in the back, upfront they signed brazilian Obina and Ikemoto, two experienced forwards that are already making damage around J-League. Obina is with 2 goals and Ikemoto with 1, and I expect them to help the team with their goals. They already seem to have some quality in set pieces, as 3 of the 4 goals in J-League came from set pieces. However, they also conceded 5 goals in 2 J-League matches which also is a clear indicator of their defensive weaknesses, even though they faced high attacking potential teams. Currently, from my stats and even though data is still scarce, Shimizu S-Pulse and Matsumoto Yamaga are the J-League teams that need less shots on target to score goals. Moreover, both teams are not that good in the back. Matsumoto Yamaga has 5 goals conceded so far (+2 in the League Cup) and concede a lot of shots per match (16 against Nagoya and 21 against Hiroshima). On the other hand, Shimizu have defensive weaknesses to be exploited and talented GK Kushibiki will not play (on Japan U22). All in all I expect an open match with some goal-scoring chances and I think the Overs should come in. But I also think both teams will score at least once so I have to go for a Over 2.5 + BTTS @ 2.20.

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Re: J-League 2015 Montedio Yamagata x Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.80 (bet365) for a 1.0 stake Montedio Yamagata will be facing Kawasaki Frontale in their first home match in the J-League 2015 with important absences in the back. H. Usami, K. Watanabe e T. Yamada are all injured and are usually starters. Even though they only lost 0-1 against Urawa, I have to say that it was mainly Urawa's fault. They were awful until the goal in the 83th, while Montedio Yamagata actually played a good defensive show, but a good Urawa would have ran them over by 3-0. Kawasaki Frontale matches are goals galore due to their gung ho style. They enjoy to give a show and to play spectacular football as well and upfront they have a lot of excellent attacking players. Maybe they have the stronger squad of the J-League in attack, actually. Okubo, Renatinho, Kobayashi, Funyama, Sugimoto...that is a great array of attacking options! Even though starters are Okubo, Renatinho and Kobayashi, expect the others to play a role as super-subs. Championships matches have a win (3-1 away against Yokohama) and a draw (2-2 Kobe at home), and in both matches they were excellent in attack, but a bit clumsy in defense. They also have a low quality keeper which doesn't help. Wednesday they faced Nagoya Grampus at home and did not rotate the team that much upfront, but eventually lost 1-3. After the goal they played really bad and Nagoya have an excellent counter-attacking team, which does not suit Kawasaki style. I price this one 1.67 with a mix of current data (still scarce) and last year's Kawasaki data against lower tier teams. Would be 1.77 without the Montedio absences so there you go. There is some value to be taken here and even though I hate odds

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Re: J-League 2015 Kashima Antlers- Sagan Tosu These two met on the final day of last season, which was less than four months ago, ahead of which I wrote ...... Reysol can steal 4th by bettering Sagan's result, or if both win, by scoring one more goal. These scenarios are the real interest in this round of games. We have spoken a lot about how Sagan approach games ... Ahead of their home game with Urawa last week I wrote ......Expect this to be cagey through the early exchanges.Sagan have drawn 20 of 32 first halves, but only two of those have ended all square (10 wins and 8 defeats).That was level at the break and did actually end 1-1, but Sagan were reduced to ten men and fell behind and to score a late equaliser with ten men, against a team who would have kept the title destiny in their own hands with the win, was a terrific result and all credit has to go to them for plugging away for 95 minutes . Antlers did us a big favour last weekend with that win at Cerezo, but this looks set to be far tougher, despite Sagan being without two suspended players, I feel that the visitors will look to keep this tight as long as possible, definitely until half time, which is their modus operandi in any case and hope that the results outlined above come to pass and that Antlers motivation will evaporate. I quite like Sagan +0.5 ball as a draw could be enough, but would prefer taking big odds for the away win "in play", if Gamba are ahead and doubly so if Reysol also lead. They are without a couple of players, but to my miind, that is more than factored into the odds. That played out well for us with Sagan winning 1-0, it was not enough for them to claim 4th spot and one of the Champions League places, as Reysol won by the desired two goals, but they did finish level on points with both them and third placed Antlers and perhaps missing out on the international fixtures is a blessing in disguise. Playing in the international club game has certainly not done Kashima any favours so far, they have lost all three Champions League fixtures, conceding eight goals in the process and have just a single point from three J-League starts, shiping three goals at Shimizu who narrowly missed relegation ( by one point) last season and who have not scored in their other two fixtures this time round and also losing at home to a newly promoted team. They had a very young team last season and in their last outing, six were aged 22 or younger and this is the always difficult big second season for many and they are no longer the surprise package they were at the start of the last campaign, key striker Davi who scored and assisted for 18 goals in 2014 has a long term injury and in his absence, Antlers have lost 10 of 18 starts. Sagan have started well, posting two wins including one over Gamba Osaka, where they went toe to toe early with the treble winners, however, once they took the lead, arguably a little against the run of play they reverted more to type and according to Gamba, "parked the bus", but this is a team with a little something about them and against whom it is absolutely vital to score first. They won 10 times on the road last season and are ideally suited to playing on the break and with Antlers leaking goals, it is easy to see the visitors scoring and one, given their defensive prowess, might well again be enough. 1.5 units Sagan Tosu +0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

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Re: J-League 2015 FC Tokyo- Ventforet Kofu No point in spending too long on this, most of you will know that I like FC Tokyo as a team and we spoke about them ahead of their last game a 2-0 road win at Vissel Kobe and those notes are reproduced below to provide a little background information. The hosts are unbetaen through the new season, but have yet to win in front of their own supporters and will surely be all guns blazing for maximum points today. Kobe were better than I thought last week and they are a team we will be returning to over the next week or two, as I saw something very interesting in their play. I did look at them today, but the fixture , away to Sanfrecce Hiroshima, was not quite what I was looking for. anyway, I feel that three points and a cleansheet there might look even better in a couple of week than it even does currently. Lets leave almost the final word to good old Massimo Ficcadenti ..... "I think that first of all we should recognize the quality of the Kobe team. I think our players produced a magnificent display today. In the first half we had several chances and threatened the opposition goal on many occasions. In the second period they came out a little more and we managed to score another goal. After that we were able to see out the game the way we wanted. I really want to praise the team for their excellent performance today. In terms of the physical and tactical aspects, I'm extremely satisfied with the way we were able to produce exactly what we've been aiming for in the game today". Good work ethic amongst the players and after the game, rather than talk about the win, which they left to the coach, most of them felt they could play better and were if anything, a little disappointed by their personal performances, which can only augur well for the future. Kofu as we discussed yesterday, were very timid and only looking for one point at home to Gamba last time out and it is not easy to make a case for them being more (perhaps less) adventurous today. They will try to hold on to what they have got, maybe steal a goal on the break and hand all the initiative to FCT who are an improving team who will be looking to make a major breakthrough this season. Home win. 1.5 units FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 1.93 asian line/Sportmarket.

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