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An interesting question


Jezza

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That I read elsewhere..(for the poker geeks amongst us :lol) You are playing a cash game, no limit hold em, heads up. Both you and your opponent have 1k in front of you - there are no blinds. The next hand he moves all in in the dark (without looking at his hole cards) preflop for his whole 1k - this will be the only time he does this. You can now choose to call him if you want, looking at your cards to see if they are favoured. There is an extra tho...he will show you his cards to help your decision if you pay him something... The question is what would be the two cards in your hand that would pay the most for his exposure? Jez

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Re: An interesting question Nah that would be an automatic fold practically all the time. It's not mathematically the worst hand heads up (it is in multiway pots of course) but there are only a couple its ahead of...so its not worth paying that much on the off chance he has 23o or something Jez

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Re: An interesting question If he hasn't seen his cards and gone all in, then I would definitely call him with ANY pair, suited connectors, face card with a rag suited or two cards 10 or above. I don't know about 'percentages' its something i gotta learn. Like last night for example, on the Channel5 poker, a player hit his King on the flop but his oppo had 4 for the flush. I would be very happy to make a call trying to hit the flush from 2 cards, my mathematics ( obviously extremely wrong) tells me I've got 2 chances to hit 1 of 4 suits on the turn and river, a 50% chance reducing to 25% on the river, not so, I haven't taken into account the fact that at least 4 of the 13 are out already , greatly reducing my odds. Yet the pair of kings was about 68% in front according to the tv. Is there anywhere ,ie a book or website which gives out probable percentages for winning these hands. The only time I know for sure is when I've got the nuts - 100%. I think once I learn about percentages it should improve my game a little , making my bets stronger when I know I'm in front.

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Re: An interesting question I guess the answer is KK If you have AA you would call anyway. If you have KK then you would like to be sure your opponent does not have AA so you would pay correspondingly more for a 50 50 shot as you dominate every other hand. QQ less as it can be beaten by more hands (AA,KK AK) so why pay too much only to find you have to fold. Most other hands are likely to only be 50-50 shots so any money paid gives away your edge.

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Re: An interesting question Why are most other hands likely to be 50-50 hands? He has not seen his cards before going all in. If you hold a decent pair you are likely to be favourite. If I had KK or QQ I would call immediately, in fact JJ and TT i might too. I'm going to change my guess and go for 99.

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Re: An interesting question Sorry - The above post is very unclear. I was thinking whilst I was typing. Hopefully you get my gist. 1K is a lot of money so the bigger favourite you appear to be so the amount you are prepared to pay for the information is greater to ensure that you get a profit at the end of the day.

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Re: An interesting question If you had KK surely you would want to pay something (however small) just to be sure he doesn't have AA. At the end of the day a profit is more important. If you knew he had AA you would not call with KK.

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Re: An interesting question or put it another way how much would Dave Ulliot have paid to Donnache O'dea before going all in in Poker Million 2 with QQ to find AA. Jezzas question said no blinds and you are playing for 1k so if you fold you lose nothing remember.

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Re: An interesting question Im with Dave here probably a small pocket pair, I would want to know if he had two overcards. If he did I might not take the risk (most of us would hope that we are better then avg and outplay him after) whereas if he had one undercard you would be straight in there. Also if he shows another pp your decision is easy. So 66 will be my shout. Its a marginal decision when you take into account all the hands he could have.

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Re: An interesting question I may have misread the question wrong but I'm sticking with KK as the most money I would pay to see his other cards. The reason is my main objective is to lose as little as possible as 1k is way more than I could afford to lose. By definition 1K to win is also a large amount. If the opponent said give me £300 and I'll show you my cards with KK I would pay it to be sure he did not have AA and I would still gain £700 profit. The £300 would be a sound investment against a piece of bad luck. KK against QQ and lower is 80% fav, and you stand to make 70% profit on your investment. If however I had 1010 and paid £300 then what. If he shows rag rag great but what if he shows KJ, what do you do then? Take the 50-50 for only £1700. If you only have 1010 surely you must pay something to find out where you are but not £300. Anyway Jezza when are you going to tell us the answer.

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Re: An interesting question Interesting question. Well if your cards were better than J7 is it a call anyway as there's a slightly more than 50% chance you are ahead anyway. Regardless of whether you actually were ahead here....the maths say there's more chance you are. Hence it's still money in ahead. Hence no need to pay anything. If your cards were worse than J7 by chance you are behind, so you could pay something to see if you are actually ahead. Although it would depend how much. I mean £300 no chance. Say you have J3 and pay £300 to see his cards....there's a good chance he is ahead anyway...in which case you fold - Loss 300. Say you are ahead you have J3 - he has 10 9. You're still not big enough favourite to justify paying £300 quid to see them. Percentage is abotu 54.4 % to you, 45.6% to him. So that's about a 10% advantage. But for £300 you've just donated 30% of the amount you are playing for, hence not worth it. You'd have to work out what is the most likely percentage you are to be ahead.... I mean you are not very likely to be ahead with a hand lke 82 off -- but you could be. If you were and called, how much of the time are you gonna win with it ? You could then work out how much you could pay to see his cards . Having said all that, the hand which springs to mind is 2,2 If he doesn't have a PP you are against 2 overcards(unless he has a 2) - slight favourite most of the time, although there are some exceptions where you are behind - 78s for example. Against another PP you a alot behind. 2,2 is the hand with the least chance of him having an undercard ie no chance, cos he can only have higher cards or 2s. Also when you are against certain over cards, 2,2 is the most behind. 3,3 is also behind to 78s but 2,2 is more behind. There are too many times when 2,2 is not favourite to the over cards. 2s , 2d is behind to Jc , 10h Whereas a hand like 8,8 is always ahead to 2 overcards. OK I'm probably talking shite but I''ll go with 2,2 There's a reasonable chance you are ahead, but it's the most chance of being ahead with the most chance of being behind. 2,5 o isnt gonna beat much but 2,2 could well do. But like I say, the amount you pay has to be in relation to the % advantage you are likely to have if you call.....plus remembering the times when you dont call and fold also has to be counted. Although that's a total cnut calcualtion I aint gonna try and do !

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Re: An interesting question I don't think it's worth paying with a pair to see if he has two overcards. If seeing his cards doesn't change your decision to call then you've wasted your money paying to see them. And if it does change your decision but tells you that it's roughly a 50-50 decision, then you don't gain much, so it's not worth paying much: if you see that you're a 52%-48% underdog when you see his cards, you'll fold, but on average it won't save you much, as you'll just win about 50% of the time instead of 48% of the time (assuming you're evenly matched in terms of skill). When it pays to see his hand is when there's a reasonable probability that it will tell you that the decision you would have made is very wrong. If you pay with a pair, then you only gain a lot from the information when he has a higher pair, but that will only happen less than 6% of the time. I'd guess it's something like J6s, which is a slight favourite against a random hand, but there are lots of hands like Q7 or better, or any pair 66 or better that make it a clear underdog.

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Re: An interesting question Well like I said, better than J7 is a call anyway. As I also said.....the amount you pay...has to be relative to the amount you are likely to be favourite if you hence call. With 2,2 when you are favourite it's not gonna be by much so I suppose you wont be paying much to see. In which case yeah you are probably right in it's not worth paying much to see if you are slight favourite....there is an amount of cash which will be mathematicaly correct to pay...but it wont be much. It's not worth paying to see if you are a slight favourite actually is it ? Well 20p perhaps, but the question is the most. Actually on second thoughts the hand that is most likely to be worthwhile is something like 55-77 There;s a reasonable chance you are big favourite ie against 1 overcard, small you change you are huge fav - against 2 undercards, biggest chance you are against 2 over cards - slight fav. Small chance you are against bigger PP - large behind. I mean if I saw 77 I would call straight away without paying extra to see them, but seeing the cards with that kinda hand would perhaps be the most valuable info.

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Re: An interesting question There are two possible reasons to pay: You have a hand that you would fold (i.e., it's underdog against a random hand), but seeing his hand is quite likely to tell you that you're actually a substantial favourite. You have a hand that would call (i.e., it's favourite against a random hand), but seeing his hand is quite likely to tell you that you're actually a substantial underdog. How often the info will tell you that your "blind" decision is wrong is relevant, and also how wrong it tells you that decision is. Whatever the correct answer is, I'll bet it's a hand that's close to 50/50 against a random hand.

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Re: An interesting question OK been thinking more.... With a hand like J6 you are never likely to be very far ahead. Best you can hope for is 10,6 9,6 8,6 7,6 5,6 4,6 3,6 2,6 J,5 J,4 J,3 J,2 But there are alot of hands you are ahead on --- J5 or worse, which is alot of cards. J,5-2 10,9-2 9,8-2 8,7-2 7,6-2 6,5-2 5,4-2 4,3-2 3,2 Ok now hands you are behind on, A,K-2 Q,K-2 J,K-7 Big behind on QQ,KK,AA also alot behing on TT,99,88,77,66, and still some behind on 55,44,33,22 So you look at the times you are behind, how likely they are and by how much compared to the hands you are in big trouble. You're not that likley to be big fav with a hand like 55, nor are you that likely to be big fav with a hand like J6. Which hand is likely to be in trouble the most ? 55 has to worry about any PP of 6 or over - not that many. Whereas J6 has many more hands dominating it, 6Q,6K,6A,J7,J8,J9,J10,JQ,JK,JA and of course 77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA Hence your J6 is more likley to be in ze sh!t so you would wanna pay more to see if it was then ? Hmm am I making any sense yet ? I dunno if I am. 55 is slight favourite to most 2 over cards....and large favourite to a few hands of 1 over card. OK sumamry with a hand like J6 there's more chance it's decent ahead and more chance it's way behind. With 55 the most likely result is you are slightly ahead....little chance you are way ahead, little chance you are way behind. So you are more likely to be putting cash in behind with J6 obviously - but it has the best chance of being ahead also with the most chance of being totally behind. Argh I'm sure I'm contradicting myself ! :wall :wall The more I think I the more I get confused, tell us the answer jezza you cnut !

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Re: An interesting question With a hand like KK or QQ its worth hardly nothing to see his cards, you can be almost certain you are a big favourite and only a few times in a thousand will he be ahead, so its not worth paying much to try and catch these very odd occasions. Likewise with a hand that figures mathematically to be about even money to two random cards (ahead about half the time, behind the other half) - something like J7s or Q7, folding or calling does not really change your EV much in this situation over the long run and thus paying to see his cards is not worth really that much (I think - this does my head in thinking about it as well) Basically the amount you should pay is the probability that seeing his cards will make you switch strategies, times the average EV gain (or savings) that you get from such a switch - I have not calculated the answer, david sklansky does not know either but he guesses at K2o....I will go for Q2 or J2 I think.... Jez

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Re: An interesting question OK I must have got the question wrong. I thought as it was for 1K and that the offer would not be repeated it would have to be high. I could not afford to lose 1k so if I had JJ or less I would not play. Would you really call a 1K bet with K9 without paying anything. What is the biggest fav you can be. 66% against two undercards. too high a risk for 1K If you had K2 why pay the most with these. He is likely to have two middle cards so what have you gained. J8 is interesting but how much of your stack,5%,10%. Can you be anymore than 66% fav with J8. If you pay 5% with either J8 or K2 haven't you just given away most of your edge by paying if you turn out to be ahead. And lets say you pay 10% of your stack with KK and find he has Ax. Would this change your mind about calling. I can't help thinking if you pay with J8 or K2 you are hoping to be proved wrong but with KK you could save a large amount. Or if not KK then certainly QQ,JJ or 10,10.

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Re: An interesting question You must not think of it like this CJB...you have to basically see it as trying to get "value". Anytime you are even a slight favourite in this situation, 50.1% or better you want to be calling, anything else folding (Ok if you both have the same cards but different suits you can call if you like volatility ;)). Dont worry about if you could afford to lose 1k or not, just view it as an exercise in trying to maximise your return on one hand of poker. Say you do find out you are a tiny (by pokers standards) 12% favourite - you cannot fold here as in the long run every time you call you make 120 quid. Sure on that one time you will either lose a grand or win a grand but in the long run you will win 120 quid on average every time you call. If I had KK I would probably be willing only to pay pennies to see his cards, on the 1 in 221 chance he had AA (ok his chance is ever so slightly greater because we know we have KK but putting that aside). Any other time I am calling no matter what he has. Yes if he has Ax he has roughly a 30% chance of outdrawing me but everytime I fold in that situation I would be throwing away 400 quid and to be a successful gambler you must not pass any chances like that up - no matter in what sort of situation they arise. With K2 the thing is there are quite a few hands that have you severely fcuked - K3,4,5,6,7,8 etc for example! you are about a 25% dog to another K in this situation - one you really want to avoid pocket pairs above 2s below Ks also leave you a 30% dog - pretty horrible. If he shows the two middle cards that you expect then you are a favourite, yes a slightish favourite but a favourite nonetheless and you should call Jez

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Re: An interesting question Only just read your reply Jezza. I have been thinking the question was a "what would you do in this situation" question and not a "totally theoretical" question hence my thinking was as it was. Once i realised this my thought pattern changed and I saw the logic in paying a small amount to confirm if you were a small favourite or big dog like you say. A good question and one which made me think a lot which is unusual. (usually either playing or reading about poker). Got any more good ones.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Re: An interesting question

That I read elsewhere..(for the poker geeks amongst us :lol) You are playing a cash game, no limit hold em, heads up. Both you and your opponent have 1k in front of you - there are no blinds. The next hand he moves all in in the dark (without looking at his hole cards) preflop for his whole 1k - this will be the only time he does this. You can now choose to call him if you want, looking at your cards to see if they are favoured. There is an extra tho...he will show you his cards to help your decision if you pay him something... The question is what would be the two cards in your hand that would pay the most for his exposure? Jez
I don't know if anybody still remembers Jezza's question from a couple of weeks ago. Or still cares. But I spent some quality time with my computer this weekend, and the winner is ... :drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums:drums J7 offsuit, with which it's worth paying about $138.06 to see your opponent's cards. Second and third were 108o ($131.56) and Q5o ($131.48). My guess of J6s was 6th ($125.02). If anybody is interested I can post the full results.
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Re: An interesting question slapdash, Only just noticed this just now...GREAT work mate :clap What did you write the program in as a matter of interest? Good computer skills there mr dash ;) If you could post the full results up I would appreciate it greatly, can you factor in blinds into the equation? Jez

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Re: An interesting question

What did you write the program in as a matter of interest? Good computer skills there mr dash ;)
Only if "good computer skills" includes knowing who to ask.:) A friend sent me a program written in C that generates a huge file with all possible pairs of hands and the probability of each winning heads-up. He in turn had produced this by adapting this piece of free software: http://groups.google.co.uk/group/rec.gambling.poker/msg/e01c6e21809929ae?hl=en that does the calculation for a particular pair of hands (like those websites that tell you the chance of AS,AH beating 10C,9C, etc., but much more accurate). After that, it's just arithmetic (quite a lot of it!) and my computer skills are up to writing a simple program to do that.
If you could post the full results up I would appreciate it greatly, can you factor in blinds into the equation?
I'll post the full results in a minute. I could factor in blinds relatively easily; all the hard work is done already. What size blind did you have in mind?
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Re: An interesting question

I'll post the full results in a minute.
OK, here they are. Here's what the numbers mean: Each line contains: (1) Your hand. (2) The probability you'll beat a random hand. (3) The amount you'll win on average if you don't look at opponent's cards. (4) The amount you'll win on average if you do look. (5) The difference between the last two: i.e., the amount you gain on average by seeing your opponent's cards. They're arranged in decreasing order of the advantage you get. J7o 0.496820 0 138.058 138.058 T8o 0.497213 0 131.563 131.563 Q5o 0.501201 2.4016 133.885 131.483 J5s 0.499868 0 128.537 128.537 J8o 0.514902 29.8036 156.104 126.3 J6s 0.506059 12.1182 137.142 125.024 Q6o 0.510241 20.4811 145.463 124.982 Q7o 0.517657 35.3134 156.78 121.467 Q4o 0.491277 0 120.938 120.938 Q2s 0.501690 3.38068 122.684 119.303 J6o 0.478443 0 118.562 118.562 T7s 0.506390 12.7808 130.713 117.932 J4s 0.490705 0 117.525 117.525 T7o 0.479082 0 116.787 116.787 T9o 0.515318 30.6362 146.05 115.414 T6s 0.489407 0 115.385 115.385 Q3s 0.510192 20.3849 133.982 113.597 J5o 0.471809 0 109.796 109.796 J7s 0.523248 46.4957 156.024 109.528 Q3o 0.482194 0 109.332 109.332 K2o 0.505087 10.1743 118.86 108.686 Q4s 0.518553 37.106 145.144 108.038 J9o 0.532513 65.0261 172.809 107.783 J3s 0.482316 0 107.757 107.757 Q8o 0.535998 71.9965 179.128 107.131 98o 0.480972 0 106.522 106.522 97s 0.491178 0 104.471 104.471 K3o 0.514257 28.5136 132.174 103.66 Q5s 0.527694 55.3882 157.539 102.151 T6o 0.460920 0 101.191 101.191 98s 0.508010 16.0199 117.11 101.09 T5s 0.472163 0 100.515 100.515 K4o 0.523275 46.5492 145.327 98.7778 T8s 0.523344 46.6876 145.342 98.6544 J4o 0.461864 0 98.3576 98.3576 J2s 0.473782 0 97.8623 97.8623 Q2o 0.472954 0 97.5761 97.5761 Q6s 0.536126 72.2514 168.801 96.5496 Q7s 0.543023 86.0453 179.803 93.7577 97o 0.462979 0 93.7442 93.7442 K5o 0.533140 66.2793 159.807 93.5277 J8s 0.540156 80.313 173.618 93.305 Q9o 0.553605 107.211 199.514 92.303 T4s 0.465305 0 92.1002 92.1002 96s 0.474284 0 91.9126 91.9126 J3o 0.452755 0 88.2713 88.2713 K6o 0.542233 84.4655 172.456 87.9905 T5o 0.442509 0 85.9378 85.9378 K2s 0.532117 64.2344 149.971 85.7366 JTo 0.552477 104.955 190.185 85.23 T3s 0.456925 0 83.7048 83.7048 K7o 0.551873 103.747 187.08 83.333 K3s 0.540550 81.0993 162.694 81.5947 96o 0.444915 0 81.1554 81.1554 Q8s 0.560177 120.355 201.333 80.978 95s 0.457220 0 80.1317 80.1317 87s 0.479362 0 80.0744 80.0744 T9s 0.540275 80.5507 159.622 79.0713 K8o 0.560202 120.403 199.378 78.975 J2o 0.443485 0 78.0491 78.0491 K4s 0.548846 97.6925 175.272 77.5795 T4o 0.435041 0 77.2709 77.2709 J9s 0.556625 113.25 190.054 76.804 T2s 0.448395 0 75.1908 75.1908 QTo 0.572908 145.816 219.905 74.089 K5s 0.557929 115.858 189.074 73.216 87o 0.450508 0 72.0115 72.0115 95o 0.426693 0 69.2837 69.2837 86s 0.462432 0 69.2007 69.2007 T3o 0.425945 0 68.6799 68.6799 K6s 0.566407 132.815 201.323 68.508 K9o 0.578120 156.24 224.503 68.263 QJo 0.581347 162.695 230.541 67.846 Q9s 0.576643 153.287 221.105 67.818 94s 0.438621 0 67.3979 67.3979 K7s 0.575377 150.755 215.459 64.704 93s 0.432644 0 61.1971 61.1971 86o 0.432409 0 61.0949 61.0949 K8s 0.583124 166.247 227.333 61.086 T2o 0.416684 0 59.9653 59.9653 85s 0.445450 0 59.893 59.893 A2o 0.549285 98.5693 155.762 57.1927 JTs 0.575279 150.557 207.195 56.638 94o 0.406711 0 56.1589 56.1589 KTo 0.597389 194.778 249.814 55.036 92s 0.424153 0 54.0253 54.0253 A3o 0.558445 116.89 170.71 53.82 85o 0.414275 0 51.9141 51.9141 QTs 0.594676 189.351 241.096 51.745 K9s 0.599885 199.77 251.449 51.679 A4o 0.567296 134.592 185.236 50.644 84s 0.427016 0 50.1385 50.1385 93o 0.400196 0 49.8845 49.8845 KJo 0.605687 211.374 260.533 49.159 76s 0.453716 0 49.0274 49.0274 A6o 0.576824 153.647 201.384 47.737 A5o 0.576964 153.929 201.021 47.092 QJs 0.602592 205.184 251.459 46.275 A2s 0.573787 147.574 192.593 45.019 A7o 0.588411 176.822 219.973 43.151 76o 0.423228 0 42.9665 42.9665 KQo 0.614558 229.117 272.081 42.964 22 0.503340 6.68024 49.5468 42.8666 92o 0.390980 0 42.6548 42.6548 A3s 0.582202 164.404 206.787 42.383 84o 0.394468 0 42.0838 42.0838 75s 0.436755 0 41.1088 41.1088 83s 0.408735 0 41.0399 41.0399 KTs 0.617886 235.771 275.909 40.138 A4s 0.590335 180.671 220.6 39.929 A8o 0.598725 197.45 235.955 38.505 A6s 0.599057 198.115 236.312 38.197 A5s 0.599228 198.457 235.593 37.136 33 0.536931 73.8614 110.77 36.9086 82s 0.402716 0 35.6867 35.6867 75o 0.405120 0 35.3161 35.3161 KJs 0.625673 251.347 286.342 34.995 A7s 0.609839 219.677 254.117 34.44 74s 0.418493 0 33.921 33.921 A9o 0.607728 215.455 249.189 33.734 83o 0.374838 0 32.8615 32.8615 44 0.570228 140.456 172.553 32.097 A8s 0.619437 238.874 269.475 30.601 KQs 0.634004 268.008 297.595 29.587 74o 0.385498 0 28.2474 28.2474 55 0.603249 206.498 234.415 27.917 82o 0.368277 0 27.5477 27.5477 73s 0.400359 0 27.3849 27.3849 A9s 0.627812 255.624 282.252 26.628 ATo 0.627216 254.431 280.631 26.2 65s 0.431332 0 25.5805 25.5805 66 0.632848 265.695 290.254 24.559 73o 0.366023 0 21.8533 21.8533 77 0.662360 324.721 346.105 21.384 65o 0.399443 0 21.2397 21.2397 AJo 0.635632 271.263 291.875 20.612 72s 0.381559 0 20.4135 20.4135 ATs 0.646024 292.048 312.28 20.232 64s 0.413333 0 19.8508 19.8508 88 0.691630 383.261 401.579 18.318 64o 0.380105 0 16.0043 16.0043 63s 0.395335 0 15.5014 15.5014 AJs 0.653927 307.854 323.306 15.452 99 0.720575 441.149 456.477 15.328 72o 0.345836 0 15.0557 15.0557 AQo 0.644318 288.635 303.353 14.718 TT 0.750118 500.236 512.524 12.288 63o 0.360776 0 12.0214 12.0214 54s 0.414533 0 11.3263 11.3263 62s 0.376690 0 10.8868 10.8868 AQs 0.662089 324.177 334.581 10.404 JJ 0.774695 549.39 558.662 9.272 AKo 0.653200 306.4 315.024 8.624 54o 0.381553 0 8.00326 8.00326 53s 0.396929 0 7.84216 7.84216 62o 0.340752 0 7.81293 7.81293 QQ 0.799252 598.503 604.722 6.219 53o 0.362648 0 5.58902 5.58902 AKs 0.670445 340.89 346.074 5.184 52s 0.378493 0 4.91758 4.91758 52o 0.342846 0 3.53862 3.53862 43s 0.386418 0 3.36922 3.36922 KK 0.823957 647.913 651.043 3.13 43o 0.351459 0 1.53865 1.53865 42s 0.368290 0 1.21151 1.21151 42o 0.331997 0 0.50497 0.50497 32s 0.359843 0 0.24645 0.246451 32o 0.323032 0 0.01134 0.0113407 AA 0.852035 704.071 704.071 0
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