MCFC1981 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Hello all, I would like to share my system with the forum and also the theory behind it. Basically its a very simple system concentrating on the over 2.5 goals market in football, I only place bet on the over section, as this is only way to guarantee the bet stays alive for the duration of the match. As I'm sure you are all well aware football is one of the most unpredictable of sports, and I find even the bookmakers have trouble with the goal lines as there are just too many ways a game can be affected... ie weather, injury, red cards, penalties and so on. My rules are very simple league games only, both home and away teams odds have to be > 2.00 (1/1) the over 2.5 goal price >2.00 (1/1) I find it's very simple to achieve a 50% strike rate therefore making a profit albeit a slow process. Compounding the bank on a monthly basis to increase bet size can also help. I'm happy to hear any thoughts on this system also to share my picks if anyone is interested? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markieze Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Re: Over 2.5 goals only system Hi , I will be interested in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCFC1981 Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Re: Over 2.5 goals only system Hi, thanks for your interest I will be happy to post my selections and also a profit and loss for people to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allen29 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Re: Over 2.5 goals only system "I find it's very simple to achieve a 50% strike rate" How do you find it so easy to achieve 50% strike rate on odds above 2 for your selections. What makes you so confident that you can predict with a better precision than the bookmaker? Have you tested your claims? If yes, on how many seasons, leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Re: Over 2.5 goals only system Good luck with this MCFC...... also good luck with trying to catch Chelsea in the Premiership (you certainly have a better chance than United ;)) I should try analysing your hypothesis on previous results. Download data from football-data.co.uk - for all the major leagues, it gives the Home + Away odds, and the O/U odds for at least the past 10 seasons. You can then test your criteria in Excel by using an "IF" formula to see if it performs as expected and, if not, then try adjusting the cut-off criteria. EDIT: I just did a quick check on the English Premiership from 2003/04 to 2010/11 seasons. Using your criteria with a stake of 1 unit, the results were: Total games: 3,032 Qualifying games: 1,003 Strike rate: 44% Profit/loss: (minus) 37 units Yield: (minus) 4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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