***Race Of The Day - Betfred Gold Cup***

[Aykay1]

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[Aykay1]

Re: ***Race Of The Day - Betfred Gold Cup*** First of all i must apologise for not having time to study the form for this race so im relying on historical results, which is not really the safest option. Nevertheless it might give people some help so im going to waffle on regardless... A few stats first of all... Courtesy of the RFO, It is noticeable how well the younger runners have fared in this race... Here are win and place results for your info.... To win: 6yo - 1/7 - 14% 7yo - 2/20 - 10% 8yo- 3/34 - 9% 9yo - 3/46 - 7% 10yo - 1/40 - 3% 11yo - 0/18 - 0% 12yo - 0/12 - 0% To be placed: 6 yo - 3/7 43% 7 yo - 6/20 - 30% 8 yo - 10/34 - 29% 9 yo - 6/46 - 13% 10 yo - 8/40 - 20% 11 yo - 5/18 - 28% 12 yo - 0/12 - 0% The theory being that handicaps this time of year are won by young, unexposed sorts. Maybe its worth noting that COMPLY OR DIE, the ONLY 6 year old in the race is trading at around 11/1 and is worth an each way bet, considering 3 out of 7 six year olds have made the frame in the last 10 years.

[Aykay1]

Re: ***Race Of The Day - Betfred Gold Cup*** OK I've had a closer look at this and although COMPLY OR DIE isnt without a chance, he wont have my money on him. Not an original choice but im siding with the favourite KELAMI. He seemingly has everything in his favour - the distance will suit, as will the ground, (he has run 3 good races on decent ground this year) and he purposely mised the National to keep him fresh for this. A £250,000 bonus is awarded if a horse wins both the William Hill Trophy and todays race in the same season so he has understandably been targeted at this. His form is good, having won a good race at the Chelteham festival and prior to that getting beaten 2 lengths by Forest Gunner on soft ground. Of the others, Ballycassidy has been mentioned as an interesting outsider but i think he will probably find one or two too good for him. A stamina test on quickish ground will reportedly suit him though. Royal Auclair will do well to win having had tough races in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National. 11 stone 12 lb's is a lot of weight to be carrying over a long trip as well. having said that he did it well enough in the National :unsure If theres a well handicapped horse in the race it could be Pipe's Zeta's River. Has been running consistently well lately and although not proven over the trip is open to more improvement that most of these having run only 6 times over fences. My forecast would be 1. Kelami 2. Zeta's River 3. Comply or Die

[bowles10]

Re: ***Race Of The Day - Betfred Gold Cup*** AK, i voted for IRIS BLEU in this race. Interesting that Pipe has only raced the horse 3 times this season although probably to avoid a repeat of 2003 when the horse pulled up in the National & didnt run in 2004. Doubtful stayer although Sandown is not a massive test of stamina & the horse has a course win to its name. Has McCoy up on board today & looks reasonably weighted based on its performance behind Joly Bey in Feb at Sandown where it was btn 6l into second. Today it is 6lb better off for that 6l defeat which does not mean it can turn it around. If these 2 horses stay IrisBleu & Joly Bey, i can see the finish between them.