Arbing Q & A's

[Markpl1]

I hope this is the right section to put this in. On the back of a thread in the other sports forum. I feel this might be a useful resource for people here who want to be the odd arb on or ask a question about it. My background is that I have been arbing for about 4 years on and off. I now do it as a full time job admittedly backed up by playing poker profitably with the rest of my time. As a standard I make close to 4 figures a month (tax free) doing this. For those completely in the dark arbing (arbitrage) is a risk free way of betting on sport by playing bookies off against one another. An example of this would be a tennis match with 2 competitors in it, you bet on both players and take the profit from the difference in price for example. Tim Henman vs Greg Rusedski Henman evs (Bookie 1) Rusedski 11/10 (Bookie 2) This arb provides a 2.44% profit if you balance your stakes right. Say we want to put 500 quid on this event we can make 12.20 from it by doing the following Stake 256.10 on henman Stake 243.90 on rusedski Both bets pay back 512.20 a 12.20 profit on your 500 staked overall. So if anyone has question on arbing I will try to answer all your queries.

[Rob]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Hi Mark, you might not answer these but here goes... 1) how do you find your arbs? some sites I've seen e.g. betbrain have some arbs on there but they all seem to be with one stake at some tin pot bookie with exchange fees and deposit fees eating up the margin. do you rely on the exchanges? 2) Have you ever fallen foul of the 'palpable error', where bookies refuse to honour a price on the ground that it was a mistake? 3) Are your bets as straightforward as in your example, or do you use variations on arbing. e.g. betting on Man U, Arsenal and Chelsea to win the league is not a true arb, but is sometimes refered to as one. e.g. do you rely on a price to move before locking in the profit i.e. back ronnie o sullivan to win the snooker at 2.5 in the first round, then lay him at 2.0 a week later in the second round. ...just to get the ball rolling

[mr onemore]

Re: Arbing Q & A's

Tim Henman vs Greg Rusedski Henman evs (Bookie 1) Rusedski 11/10 (Bookie 2) This arb provides a 2.44% profit if you balance your stakes right. Say we want to put 500 quid on this event we can make 12.20 from it by doing the following Stake 256.10 on henman Stake 233.90 on rusedski Both bets pay back 512.20 a 12.20 profit on your 500 staked overall.

Are your numbers right here? - with these stakes you're making £22 if Henman wins, and your total stake money back if he loses. I would like to know: 1) How many times you get one side of an arb bet on - and can't get on the other side for some reason (odds changed, bookie won't accept bet...) ? 2) How much, percentage wise, of your bank is tied up each day in arb bets? 3) How many arb bets you find a day on average? I'd add that when putting the theory into practice, arbing is not risk free and is potentially the easiest way for a novice punter to lose an enormous amount of money. The amount of money used to make a monthly 4 figure profit is probably a 5 figure sum - I'd maintain there are safer ways of using money like this than arbing - so good luck with your profession:ok

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Any idea what your hourly rate is ?

[Datapunter]

Re: Arbing Q & A's one problem for generating a decent turnover is the bookies limits. so do you use multiple accounts ? are you getting away with it ?

[Markpl1]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Right then emerson your questions: Betbrain is a good starting point you will see the occasional good arb with two reputable bookies. I would say only 1 in 20 arbs on there are any use to me. I do look there tho part of the system. I find most mine manually by checking each event at a time on every bookie im with. Palpable errors I have never actual had happen to me (very fortunate) I have had a few ding dongs with bookies over the phone/ e-mail about rulings of bets. The majority of which I have won. With the odd free bet (cheers Laddies). Lots of the bets are as straightforward as this involving 2 or possibly 3 outcomes. Betting on the premiership title is something i would never consider I only bet on things where I have covered all possible outcomes what you describe parbing (partial arbing). Also this is far too long term I only bet on things that are settled within a matter of days due to cashflow. I have occasional taken an out of line price in the hope to lay it off but only when im convinced that it is way out of line e.g recently france were 1/2 to beat switzerland this was way too big so i took the bet on the Tuesday and layed it off on Friday on the exchange at about 2/5. But i wouldn't risk betting on Ronnie in that case cos he could lose his first round game. Mr One more your right should be 243.90 on rusedski lol which makes 500 staked. Mistype sorry there is free calculator on oddschecker by the way. Henman is evens or 2.00 (decimal) so 256.10 * 2 = 512.20 Rusedski is 11/10 or 2.10 so 243.90 *2.1 = 512.20 I would say the other side on the bet goes about one in every 20 or so times and this is where technique and practice come in you place both bets at precisly the same time (within seconds) getting the slips up at the same time with the money deposited already. Also if poss you should have a back up if you get one side on. Each day about 33% as i turnover my bank about every 3 days. On average i find anywhere between 0 and 10 arbs a day. On certain days i would find more than 10 but my bank wounldn't take it. Your right i turnover easily 5 figures a month my bank statements come in about 5 different envelopes each month:rollin . I spend about 2-3 hours a day doing it so at an average of about 30-40 quid a day about 15 quid an hour. Ha ha datapunter sensitive q there lets just say i almost run a business with a few trusted friends who open accounts on my behalf and give them a cut. So i spend some of my days being a women:lol .Um yes.

[ecoins]

Re: Arbing Q & A's hi markpl1 ... what betting sites do you use?

[Markpl1]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Right my current list all using switch are: Bet 365 Bet Internet Blue Sq Bet Direct Bet Odd or Even Centrebet Canbet Globet Ladbrokes Paddy Power Stan James Sporting Odds Sportingbet Stanleybet Skybet Totesport Unibet Victor Chandler William Hill UK Betting Premierbet BetFred The Gaming Club Coral Exchanges Betfair and Betdaq Make that 26 now

[llanitotaylor]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Have any bookmakers caught on yet?

[DeepBlueDevilFish]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Are you using a fixed IP address ? Because if you are this is one way you may be caught out as some bookies do keep logs of this.

[Datapunter]

Re: Arbing Q & A's :lol @ markpl1 , yes bit sensible question but i very much appreciate the answer :ok My problem is living in Holland most bookies refuse to give an account, so i'm looking to use the identity of a 'trusted friend' not living here. If you are willing to share some details to help me on my way send me a PM, if you want to keep it private then say no more. wink wink, nudge nudge, know what you mean guv, say no more, SAY NO MORE ;)

[Markpl1]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Some do limit you. As they wonder what you are doing betting so much on a variety of things when they are market leaders. Some just don't care and just see my money as good as anyone elses. Bet and win are the worst for this. Known by arbers as Bet & Whinge don't touch them any more.

[Datapunter]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Would you agree to the statement that for arbitrage to be profitable, to the point of it being worth the time you need to put in, it must be done as a dedicated specialism ? Or in other words, its not worth the time unless you go for it and hardly do anything else ?

[Markpl1]

Re: Arbing Q & A's No depends on how much time you want to spend on it. During my time at uni it was very much a beer fund. Was only making about 200/250 a month by putting little effort in (easier times admittedly) so it can be a second income. What I would emphasise is that to most people would find what i do boring. I don't, a mixture of a mathematical background (i have a maths degree), having a big interest in betting, been a massive sports fan all my life and a competitive nature where i take great enjoyment in getting one over the bookies does it for me.

[mr onemore]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Mark - have you never had any big wipeouts - I think they're more common than anyone ever admits to - there are so many external factors that can go wrong, and not all are predictable...

[Markpl1]

Re: Arbing Q & A's I did once make a big mistake on footie match where i backed Newcastle twice instead of west brom on a handicap. I had 1600 on newcastle for one match:o . Fortunately i placed it on a friday and the match was on sunday. I spent the next two days laying newcastle off eventually for a 50 quid loss. Newcastle won the game by the way:cry . I have got very lucky from that point of view but in my experience those who suffer wipeouts have in 75% of cases have made a stupid mistake like backing a price which is clearly papable.

[Gambling Gorilla]

Re: Arbing Q & A's Good luck to you but like most here, I think arbing's a dodgy business. I (like yourself have a degree in maths and love gambling) recently looked at backing with bookies and laying with betfair for a guaranteed profit (after commission). All was going well until one match in Greece was postponed... by 1 day. My bets with some bookies got refunded yet my lay with betfair stood. I absolutely shat my pants as I'd layed an odds on favourite. After getting in touch with betfair, they reopened the book and I backed for a small guaranteed loss. Though it was much better than the loss I was anticipating. Since then, I've decided to avoid such systems cos it would really hurt to get stung in this way again. (Happy ending though - one of the bookies which cancelled the backing bet paid out the next day despite the bet being declared void so I did actually make a huge unexpected profit but the lesson was learnt all the same!) Hope this makes sense. Good luck to you though. It can be done but I personally think it's pretty scary stuff. Oh, also had an instance where a bookie suspended all betting after the event was on my coupon at which point they dramatically shortened the odds. A lay was in place (a much better one thank God). There are safer strategies (which hopefully nobody else will ever figure out as it'll ruin it for me!) but as I say, good luck!

[mr onemore]

Re: Arbing Q & A's

I have got very lucky from that point of view but in my experience those who suffer wipeouts have in 75% of cases have made a stupid mistake like backing a price which is clearly papable.

The type of error you described there is really quite easy to make - especially if you're in a fast moving market (do you ever arb on in-running markets??) - you were lucky to get out of that:ok But I'm not sure I'd agree that 75% of mistakes are calculation mistakes - I suffered a wipeout once when an exchange closed a market I was in - I didn't have the opportunity to get on at another bookie - too much money tied up. OK - so I learnt an expensive lesson - but I think there's any number of unexpected events that can happen - like yours story and mine. In each case, the theory was ok, but putting into practice can be very risky - and incidentally you can't really estimate that risk, except to say that any reverse is likely to have a catastrophic effect on your bank. Still, as I said before, each to their own. Good luck - you clearly have good experience to fall back on here in an emergency. You're right about having a back up plan if things go wrong - if I had some of my bank available, and other accounts available at that time, I could have minimised the wipeout I suffered :(

[Getting Better]

Re: Arbing Q & A's I've been told a few arbs by a friend who does them more regularly. He only bothers to tell me if they are a decent percentage 5%+ and with the bigger bookies where he knows that it's not a problem to get decent money on. I've had some good one's like Alan Smith to make/not make the Euro squad where both odds were 3.0, so £200 on each guaranteed a £200 profit. I also signed to an arb advisory service for 3 months and found that although they suggested a lot of arbs most of them were with smaller bookies and only small stakes could be placed. I found this service to be a bit of a waste of time and wouldn't advise using them because it gets frustrating being sent 5-10 arbs a day which you can't really make any money from. These also seemed to be the arbs where the prices moved quick so they were high risk.