Tennis. W/C 18.04.05

[The Saint]

So I can see why the bookies hate taking tennis bets..... Not prepared to up my stakes though... Phychologically not ready too!! Looks desperate in Europe but there's three I like in the US. Apologies for lack of write up but I'm v nearly l8 4 work! Puerta to beat Melzer 1.67 Massa to beat Vanek 1.50 Ginepri to beat Fish 1.58 All at Betfair. Bookies may well priec these up throughout the day so you may well beat the crappy odds I got! 25 Points on all of the above as per usual. 100 point starting bank as per usual. GL any1 who can be arsed to get involved. Still Hungover.:puke

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Alright, some quick picks - can't go into too much detail as lots of these matches are starting soon... From Barcelona : 5pts Llodra to beat Mantilla (3.25 @ Ladbrokes) :( This is absurd - Mantilla is not half the player he was 3 years ago and while I'd go with the logic he ought to be slight favourite here, making him a 1/3 shot is definitely out of the question. I can see Llodra giving him a close match here - wouldn't exactly surprise me either if he gets the boot from the Frenchman. 10pts Wawrinka-Almagro (3.74 @ Ladbrokes) :( I've never understood how is it Wawrinka is eternally so underrated. This chap is a far better player than the books would have you believed and I can certainly see him edging out Garcia-Lopez in a close encounter. Similarly, Feliciano Lopez has been piss poor on clay so far and I just don't expect that to change anytime soon considering he's up against Almagro who just looks so much more comfortable on clay. From US Clay Court Championships : 5pts Minar to beat Blake (3.00 @ Ladbrokes) :( Minar has certainly made an impact on the ATP scene this year, forcing Federer to three sets in a closely-fought final not too long ago. What people have to realise is Blake's game revolves an awful lot around his serve and as most would know, big servers have little edge on clay as the slow surface naturally means an the speed which would accompany the serves on other surfaces are drastically reduced. Take away his serve and you'd see Blake as a very ordinary player - certainly ordinary enough for Minar to give him a match IMO. 20pts Horna-Haas (2.01 @ Ladbrokes) :D Haas is the defending champion here and up against an inexperienced Vliegen, you've just got to fancy the German to see off the unheralded Belgian. Horna is a very decent claycourt player IMO and I'm certainly surprised at the sort of price for which he's available against an aging Enqvist whose favourite surface is obviously not clay - the Peruvian should just edge this out. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100pts

[firefly]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Lopez to beat Muller 2.18 and Carlsen to beat Srichaphan 2.22 at Betfair Both pretty good value IMO, Lopez brought up on clay and playing at home. Srichaphan hates clay and although Carlsen is not great on the stuff himself , I fancy him to come out on top in this one. Any thoughts ?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05

Lopez to beat Muller 2.18 and Carlsen to beat Srichaphan 2.22 at Betfair Both pretty good value IMO, Lopez brought up on clay and playing at home. Srichaphan hates clay and although Carlsen is not great on the stuff himself , I fancy him to come out on top in this one. Any thoughts ?

Note that that's Marc Lopez and not Feliciano Lopez we're talking about. In all honesty, I wouldn't fancy either of the Lopez to beat Muller, who's a more than decent player that could well trouble Lopez. If anything, I think there's decent value on Muller! :rollin Great spot there nonetheless, definitely something I'd overlooked...

[firefly]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Same tournament last year Marc Lopez took out Andreev and Mantilla before going out to Nalbandian and has beaten Chela on clay this year. Although Mullers game is on the up his best surface is not clay , think he will find it hard against a clay court specialist and the home crowd. Only thing that concerns me is Marc Lopez lack of recent form to go on, just hope he has been practicing hard for this one. Agree with you on Almagro to beat Felicano Lopez , who having had good results on faster courts now looks ill at ease on the dirt. Cheers good luck

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05

Same tournament last year Marc Lopez took out Andreev and Mantilla before going out to Nalbandian and has beaten Chela on clay this year. Although Mullers game is on the up his best surface is not clay , think he will find it hard against a clay court specialist and the home crowd. Only thing that concerns me is Marc Lopez lack of recent form to go on, just hope he has been practicing hard for this one. Agree with you on Almagro to beat Felicano Lopez , who having had good results on faster courts now looks ill at ease on the dirt. Cheers good luck

I don't know what to make of Andreev's progress at this stage last year because as far as I'm concerned, he only got the bit between his teeth and started stringing together a good sequence of results on a more consistent basis after he beat Ferrero(who was the defending champ then) at Roland Garros. Andreev is obviously a different player now and I'd be hard pressed to think how Lopez would even run him close were they to meet now. Like I said, I wouldn't read too much into the other players because Mantilla is not half the player he was, Nalbandian and Chela are not the best players on clay - don't let the fact that Chela's an argentinian deceive you into believing he's decent on clay because he's anything but that. These lot are much more proficient on other surfaces. From what I have seen of Muller, he does have a game that would suit him fine for most opponents(certainly enough to give Lopez a run for his money) and on that basis, I think the value certainly lies with him - unless Lopez has made marked progress in the same fashion Alberto Martin has over the last 6 months, I can only see one winner there. Good luck if you're on him though... :loon

[kompressaur]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05

Puerta to beat Melzer 1.67

thetruth says that there is ABSOLUTELY NO chance of Puerta winning that match. I've had a phone call.............. ;)

[Sco]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Does anyone know how long it is until the above game is on? Sco

[The Saint]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Well i for one won't be betting on tennis again..... What a stitch up! Melzer into 1.33 b4 the off, Puerta out to 4.0... Bookies all over the world banning betting on the match.... Rumours abound all over the place... I hope this gets investigated and the ATP ban the **** for life... I am so monumentally pissed off with this shite.... See Betfair forum if your not up to speed....:@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@ :@

[Sco]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 When does it actually start TheSaint? Sco

[kompressaur]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Melzer wins 12 games and Puerta wins 6, that's thetruth. Didn't anybody find it strange, that Puerta, who has been on fire on the European dirt, would ignore the European dirt in Barcelona to go all the way the the US of A to play on the green rubbish?:rollin

[The Saint]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 That's practically aftertiming. Completely frowned upon in here and not very helpful.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Terrible to hear that, The Saint. :o Must admit I had a near encounter not too long ago with the cnut Novak when he went down in even more sensational fashion to Gambill earlier this year in an ATP event. I certainly hope you said what you did in jest because there's still plenty of money to be made out there... ;) From Barcelona : 30pts Moya-Monaco (1.96 @ Ladbrokes) :( Mirnyi is a joke on clay. Considering his game revolves solely around his serves, it's little surprise clay is the surface he hates most as basically whatever advantage he tends to gain on hardcourts are well nullified here. Throw him against a claycourt specialist in Juan Monaco and you'd only compound his problems further - massive value on the Argentinian there, no doubt. Similarly, I think Moya will just prove too strong for Nieminen. Having faced an embarrassing first round exit in Monte Carlo at the hands of Puerta a week ago, there's no doubt he'd want to put right what happened last week and I can only imagine Nieminen being on the receiving end of a backlash. Get on it quick though, it's due to start in under an hour... Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Balance : 85.00pts Profit/Loss : -15.00pts

[The Saint]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Honestly, that's me - I'm done with it. V V strange betting patterns in the Massa, Vacek game to..... Only one bookie left betting on it and although it's not as drastic as yesterday's farce Massa is out from 1.5 to 2.2 upwards already.... This despite having won their previuos encounter on clay 2 and 1. Tennis bettin is alot of work for what will generally be a limited return. U only need to be against a couple of bad results to be behind... When these results then appear to be fixed you hav to ask yourself is it worth the hassle. Un4tunately I've decided no. Was the Puerta farce reported on in the Racing Post or hav they decided to cover it up?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Not a good week so far, but let's hope Wednesday brings about a change in fortune. ;) From Barcelona : 20pts Robredo-Ferrero-Wawrinka (3.45 @ Ladbrokes) :( Ferrero should thump Feliciano Lopez who clearly doesn't like this surface. It's surprised me a bit Lopez survived the first round, but so long as form guides are anything to go by, he'd need a miracle to beat Ferrero. Similarly, Wawrinka should see off Srichaphan without much trouble considering the Thai isn't exactly fond of this surface. He didn't exactly cruise past Kenneth Carlsen in the first round, but no doubt he did look very much like a fish out of water even though he beat the Dane. Wawrinka, along with Muller and Andreev(up until the Valencia ATP event a fortnight ago), are among the most underrated players on the tour IMO and he's certainly worth every bit the 1.53 on offer. Alberto Martin was anything but convincing in his first round match against Younes El Aynaoui. To have been pushed as hard as he was by the aging Moroccan who has clearly seen better days surely would do little to boost his credentials in his second round match against Robredo. Considering Robredo's the defending champ in this event, you've just got to fancy him to start his title defence today with aplomp against a player who, on his day, clearly wouldn't be his match. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Balance : 70.20pts Profit/Loss : -29.80pts

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Not a good week so far, but here's keeping going... :o 10pts T Johansson to beat Davydenko (3.00 @ Ladbrokes) :( Davydenko is thrash on this surface and the gap between him and Johansson isn't really that great IMO. Davydenko, however, has a knack of being inconsistent and unpredictable and does struggle to hold serves at times. Up against a dull, boring, yet efficient machine, I just don't see how he could be priced at a meagre 1.36. 10pts Wawrinka to beat Acasuso (3.50 @ Ladbrokes) :D As I have said so often, Wawrinka is very often underrated and he is very much underpriced here once again. I think too much is made of Acasuso's defeat of Safin in the last round, which really shouldn't be the case because he clearly isn't anywhere close to being as good as his odds would suggest. 20pts Ferrero-Gaudio (2.20 @ Ladbrokes) :D Martin's journey has surely got to end here. Alberto Martin has made light work of his journey here so far, seeing off El Aynaoui and Robredo with aplomb. However, up against a rejuvenated Ferrero, Martin will have to be at his finest to stand any chance of pipping the claycourt specialist - sadly, I just can't see that happening. Ferrer has been grossly overrated on many occasions and there's no doubt he's had more luck in the last month than he's probably deserved - nevertheless, you just can't back him to beat Gaudio whose form resembles every bit the player who won the French Open last year. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Balance : 50.20pts Profit/Loss : -49.80pts

[36908]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Looks like another upset over G Canas now :puke

[rasher]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Terrific call on Wawrinka Ed. You're back on form. Thanks, Rasher

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05

Terrific call on Wawrinka Ed. You're back on form. Thanks, Rasher

I'll second that, great stuff Edtkh:clap

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Wasn't able to post any picks yesterday as I was away, but here's hoping Saturday will make up for it. ;) From Barcelona : 5pts Ferrero to win Seat Open (5.00 @ Betfair) :( 30pts Ferrero-Nadal 2-0 (1.52 @ Ladbrokes) :D Nadal has looked to be in top form lately as the clay season has gotten underway and if he maintains his current form, it really wouldn't surprise me that much that he'd be the one to beat when Roland Garros comes along - just as Ferrero and Coria were in 2003 and 2004 respectively. Considering Nadal having won all his matches in straight sets this week, I don't see Stepanek having the class to buck that trend. Ferrero is looking better and better as the weeks go by and his second successive semi-final appearance in a week will hopefully prove to be anything but a false dawn and help him regain the sharpness and match fitness he will need for the French Open. No doubt he'll be up against another opponent who will be providing him with a stern test in Davydenko, but given the time he has had over the last fortnight you've just got to fancy him to set up an all-Spanish final with Nadal tomorrow. On the basis of his form this week, I'd fancy him to nick this 2-0 but given the fact he still looks dodgy at times over the last couple of weeks, I think it'd be safer to stick to backing Ferrero on match betting. :tongue2 I'd also have a little nibble on Ferrero to win the tournament at 5.00... Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Balance : 89.20pts Profit/Loss : -10.80pts

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Just thought there's another match from the US Claycourt Championships that has caught my eye... 10pts Grosjean to beat Lapentti (1.48 @ Betfair) Grosjean has won all his matches - against Phau, Hernandez and Agassi - in 3 sets so far this week and fatigue could hurt him a tad. However, in view of his defeat of Agassi, I think you have got to rate him as a decent bet to see off Lapentti who hasn't really played any top player this week. More importantly, much as Lapentti may reserve his best tennis for clay, Grosjean - just as most Frenchman would - does have a special affinity for clay and does tend to play better on clay than most people realise. Should Grosjean rise to the occasion(which I would expect him to), you've just got to fancy him to beat Lapentti. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Balance : 104.80pts Profit/Loss : +4.80pts

[stereoman]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Just for the fun of it, I've put a £25 double on Dirk Nowitski (11/10) to outscore Tracy McGrady (11/10) and Yao Ming (5/1) and andy Roddick (1/7) to beat Jurgen Melzer (4/1) with Ladbrokes. Grosjean should easily beat Lapentti but my heart's not in it.

[stereoman]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 They did a good job on Dirk Nowitzki. McGrady scores 34, Dirk 21, Yao 10. Pathetic though. Roddick wins 6-4 6-2. The Grosjean/Lapentti match just about to start. EDIT: It ended and Grosjean won 6-1 7-6 (7-5). D'oh! Could have saved myself a night. if I'd done a Roddick/Grosjean double instead but no, I try to be a little creative. :eyes

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 I reckon Grosjean can beat the handicap (+5) in the final tonight against Roddick in the US claycourt championships. Grosjean beat Roddick the only time they met on clay (although that was back in 2002). In their other 4 meetings over the past two years, Roddick has won all 4, but only won 2 of those by 5 games or more. On any other surface you'd have to favour Roddick, but on clay, I think Grosjean can make enough of a game of it. Grosjean +5 is available at evens on Bet365.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis. W/C 18.04.05 Not the best of weeks the last 7 days, but no doubt being in the black is still a cause for optimism. Didn't touch the Nadal-Ferrero final as I had a 5pt stake on Ferrero to win the tourny from yesterday - just thought I'd put a flutter on tonight's US Men's Claycourt final between Grosjean and Roddick. ;) 14.60 pts Grosjean to beat Roddick (4.50 @ Betfair) It's no secret clay is nowhere close to being Roddick's favourite surface and his results so far haven't been all that impressive. Besides Ginepri and Horna(who are decent players, but not exactly class acts), he hasn't beaten anyone of note and certainly no claycourt specialist. Up against Grosjean, Roddick will be facing his sternest test yet. Grosjean, while not one to make life easy for himself, has certainly shown enough mettle to see off a couple of very decent players on clay in the form of Lapentti and Agassi. On the basis of the results this week, it'd certainly be foolhardy to give Grosjean a miss especially at such a generous price. It's just as imperative to note, even though Roddick leads Grosjean 4-1 on h2h, Grosjean has won the only claycourt meeting between the pair and should certainly not be so highly priced. Massive value there IMO. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Balance : 104.60pts Profit/Loss : +4.60pts