A different approach

[iroquois]

[TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: xl68, width: 256, colspan: 4]This is a simple model to predict soccer games [/TD] [TD=class: xl64, width: 255, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]We only bet with value[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, width: 255, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]Parameters to avaliate:[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, width: 255, colspan: 3][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]1) Points from the general table[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]2)Points from the home table[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]2)Points from the fore table[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]4) Home advantage[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]4) Give different strenghts to the general and form pts[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl67, width: 256, colspan: 4]Do the maths:[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]1) General points*40%[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]2) Form points*60%[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]3) Add the two values (1+2)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 256, colspan: 4]4) Home advantage=Points at home/Points general table[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 320, colspan: 5]5) Do the same minus home advantage calculation for the away team[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]6) calcutate the % [/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl67, width: 256, colspan: 4]Example:[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl70, width: 256, colspan: 4]home team[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]General points=12[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]Form points=6[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl70, width: 256, colspan: 4]Home points=4[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]point strenght=12*40%+6*60%=8.40[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl70, width: 256, colspan: 4]home advantage=4/12=0,33[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl70, width: 256, colspan: 4]away team[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]general points=10[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl70, width: 256, colspan: 4]form points=5[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4]point strenght=10*40%+5*60%=7.00[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 256, colspan: 4][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 256, colspan: 4]calculate percentage[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 447, colspan: 6]%Home=(Home point strenght+home advtg)/(home point strenght+home advantage+away point strenght)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl71, width: 447, colspan: 6]%Away=(away point strenght)/(home point strenght+home advantage+away point strenght)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 447, colspan: 6][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 447, colspan: 6]Odd calculation[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 447, colspan: 6]Home odds=1/%home[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl71, width: 447, colspan: 6]Away odds=1/%away[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 447, colspan: 6][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 447, colspan: 6]Determination of value[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 447, colspan: 6]home value=%home*booker odds; if x>1 we have value if x1 we have value if x[/TABLE] example of today Game: Copenhagen-Midtjytilland [TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 127][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64]POINTS[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64]POINTS[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64]POINTS[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 66]POINTS[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 125][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 63][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 61][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl71]H.TEAM[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]GERAL[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]FORM[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]GERAL[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]FORM[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]A.TEAM[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]H[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]A[/TD] [TD=class: xl74, width: 128, colspan: 2]ODDS[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]HADVT[/TD] [TD=class: xl67]0,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl75]5,00[/TD] [TD=class: xl76]5[/TD] [TD=class: xl76]5[/TD] [TD=class: xl77]9[/TD] [TD=class: xl77]9[/TD] [TD=class: xl75]9,00[/TD] [TD=class: xl69]38%[/TD] [TD=class: xl69]62%[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]2,61[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]1,62[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]PHOME[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]3[/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl80]Booker[/TD] [TD=class: xl81]1,91[/TD] [TD=class: xl82]4,00[/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]PGERAL[/TD] [TD=class: xl79]5[/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl78][/TD] [TD=class: xl84]Value[/TD] [TD=class: xl83]0,73[/TD] [TD=class: xl83]2,47[/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [TD=class: xl68][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Amazing the 4.00 odds from bet365 to the underdog!!!!!!!

[iroquois]

Re: A DIFFERENT APROACH Games for tomorrow [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: xl69, width: 192, colspan: 3]Game[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 64]Pick[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 64]Odd B.[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 64]Result[/TD] [TD=class: xl70, width: 64]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl71, width: 64]Profit[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 192, colspan: 3]goias-internacional[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl67]2,50[/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 192, colspan: 3]ponte preta-joinville[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl67]3,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 192, colspan: 3]aalborg-esbjerg[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]1[/TD] [TD=class: xl67]2,40[/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66, width: 192, colspan: 3]aalesund-augesund[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl67]3,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [TD=class: xl68] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[froment]

Re: A DIFFERENT APROACH Interesting and complicated in the same time... I'm big fan of stats, too, but I learned that relying on stats only does not produce impressive results... Otherwise, teams who are in a bad form would keep losing all the time, and teams on a bad form would keep winning, but it doesn't happen, league leader loses to last team on the table sometimes... I would like to know a couple of things about your system, please: - What is your cut-off value - will you bet if value is 1.01, or 1.10, or you need some bigger value to decide it's bet? - What are the stakes? Level stakes, or Kelly's approach, bigger the value, bigger the odds? - Did you consider laying a team if value is less than 1, as another separate system? This might be my personal influence to your system - draws happen, so I'd sometimes rather lay a team at odds on, than back a team at high odds (I've tried that and didn't work, but hope you'll be more successfull! :) ) Good luck with the system! :ok

[iroquois]

Re: A DIFFERENT APROACH

Interesting and complicated in the same time... I'm big fan of stats, too, but I learned that relying on stats only does not produce impressive results... Otherwise, teams who are in a bad form would keep losing all the time, and teams on a bad form would keep winning, but it doesn't happen, league leader loses to last team on the table sometimes... I would like to know a couple of things about your system, please: - What is your cut-off value - will you bet if value is 1.01, or 1.10, or you need some bigger value to decide it's bet? - What are the stakes? Level stakes, or Kelly's approach, bigger the value, bigger the odds? - Did you consider laying a team if value is less than 1, as another separate system? This might be my personal influence to your system - draws happen, so I'd sometimes rather lay a team at odds on, than back a team at high odds (I've tried that and didn't work, but hope you'll be more successfull! :) ) Good luck with the system! :ok

Never bet with odds less than 2.00 and the calculated probability less than 50%. I think that we can experiment first with flat stakes. This is a paper system for now.

[iroquois]

Re: A DIFFERENT APROACH [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Profit[/TD] [TD=class: xl68, width: 64]-15,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl67]Roi[/TD] [TD=class: xl69]-38%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl76, width: 192, colspan: 3]Game[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]Pick[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]Odd B.[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]Result[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl75]Profit[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl77, width: 192, colspan: 3]goias-internacional[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]2,50[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]0-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl78]15,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl77, width: 192, colspan: 3]ponte preta-joinville[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]3,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]2-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]-10,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl77, width: 192, colspan: 3]aalborg-esbjerg[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]1[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]2,40[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]1-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]-10,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl77, width: 192, colspan: 3]aalesund-augesund[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]3,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]3-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]-10,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[iroquois]

Re: A DIFFERENT APROACH [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Profit[/TD] [TD=class: xl69, width: 64]-15,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl67]Roi[/TD] [TD=class: xl70]-38%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl77, width: 192, colspan: 3]Game[/TD] [TD=class: xl75]Pick[/TD] [TD=class: xl75]Odd B.[/TD] [TD=class: xl75]Result[/TD] [TD=class: xl75]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl76]Profit[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]goias-internacional[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]2,50[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]0-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl79]15,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]ponte preta-joinville[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]3,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]2-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]-10,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]aalborg-esbjerg[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]1[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]2,40[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]1-1[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]-10,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]aalesund-augesund[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]3,60[/TD] [TD=class: xl72]3-0[/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl74]-10,00 €[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]palmeiras-s. paulo[/TD] [TD=class: xl66]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl71]2,45[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]botafogo-fluminense[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2,15[/TD] [TD=class: xl65][/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl65][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]figueirense-at. Mg[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl68]2,20[/TD] [TD=class: xl65][/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl65][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl78, width: 192, colspan: 3]sport recife-atletico pr[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl68]3,40[/TD] [TD=class: xl65][/TD] [TD=class: xl73]10,00 €[/TD] [TD=class: xl65][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Chris2b]

Re: A DIFFERENT APROACH That's all ?