South African Horse Racing Betting

[robertob]

Re: South African Horse Racing Betting A review report from yesterdays Guineas meeting at Turffontein:

Been a fantastic day of racing. Both Guineas winner looked really good,in fact Harry's Son looked sensational! With all the known problems before the race, his bleeding, lack of prep run, travelling, different conditions... he was mightily impressive. Apparently connections are keen to go down the triple crown route now, which means the Derby is the next stop. Kind of surprising as the vibes were different before the race. He's surly Dubai bound afterwards though. You find both the fillies and boys Guineas in full lengths on youtube or here quickly all in one place in my blogs weekend review.

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting 2.25 Greyville: Kings Cup (Grade 3 Handicap) This intriguing handicap looks a wide open race to my eyes. The Hangman heads the market and he is a worthy favourite, no doubt. A Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, he had his fair share of problems in recent years, but found back to something close of his best when winning a MR 92 Handicap as top weight over 1.400m last month. The Hangman took advantage of a career lowest mark that day and proved himself to be still in love with the game. This form entitles him to be a big runner today, and the step up to 1.600m shouldn't be an issue today. However a 7lb hike in the mark is something he has to overcome and currently a 9/4 chance he isn't more than a fair price. Christmas Handicap winner Fourth Estate will enjoy to be back at his beloved Greyville after two below par efforts at other tracks. Due to the big win in December, he is still on a career highest mark and after 46 career starts it looks unlikely that he can improve any further. Over this CD he rates a fair runner, but others make more appeal. Candy Moon was fourth in the Christmas Handicap but encountered a troubled run. He stayed on very strongly once in the clear and with a 2.5kg swing in the weights with the winner gives him the edge over that rival. He found 2.000m a bit too far subsequently, but the drop to a mile at Greyville should certainly suit. Candy Moon is two from three over CD and while he is another one who has to produce a career best, his penultimate effort gives him a strong chance. Classy Uncle Tommy runs consistently well and to his rating, despite the fact that has always big weights to shoulder. Up in class today, he has a huge 62kg to overcome and that could simply be too much asked. Royal Zulu Guard and Stolen Destiny are improved sorts lately . They should be competitive but also have to prove that they are up to their new career highest marks. Auction King and King Neptune are not out of this by any means. Though they don't strike as particularly well handicapped either and more is needed here. Verdict: If The Hangman can overcome the hike in the mark and continues to find back to his formerly brilliant best, then he has an ideal opportunity to score here over ideal course and distance. It is not a straightforward ask though and I take an chance with gradually improving Candy Moon who loves this track and trip and was a bit unlucky lately. With a clear run he should be a very big runner here with conditions in favour. Candy Moon @ 5/1 Sportingbet - 5pts win

[robertob]

Re: South African Horse Racing Betting The Hangman won the Kings Cup. Perfectly placed always tracking the pace, he held on in the finish to regain some of his formerly brilliant form. It was a crawl throughout and horses from the back found life difficult. Candy Moon may be the one to take out of this, he finished a gallant 2nd, while travelling off the pace. Auction King is also an interesting one. He didn't get a run through while hard on the bridle. https://youtu.be/Kqxa7iryAzk

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting 2.35 Vaal: MR 92 Handicap, 1.700m The betting market suggests that this a widen open race with plenty of chances, and indeed, that is the case. Though I can drill down the field to a handful of runners with realistic chances to go close. Favourite Orchestrated will be one of them. He won over course and distance last month and had a couple of runners in this field behind him. A swing in the weights and a five pound higher mark make life tougher though. He found 2.450m too far subsequently, dropping back to 1.700m will surely suit. He's a fair favourite and a fair price. The only three year old in the race, Kingmambos Legacy has a very light weight and that must give him a chance, as well as you always have to respect De Kock's runners. But he hasn't shown anything in six starts that suggests he is up to this standard. He also has been campaigned over further and may find this trip too sharp. Tee Jay Ar finished 3rd behind Orchestrated the last time. A 2.5kg swing in the weights can help to get closer, but the trip is a worry. His best is over shorter and he may find this too far once again. Talented Eurakilon loves this track and has fair form in the book. But his problem is that he gets going way too late on too many occasions. He has an obvious chance if he can produce his finish earlier, but I wouldn't bet on it. Lightly raced Thatho Magetique is an interesting horse. He has fair form to offer and may be able to improve a bit. A light weight gives him a chance but it remains to be seen how he fares for the step up in class against much stronger rivals. Exposed Noble Star has plenty to find on ratings, however a very light weight of 52kg gives him a chance to be in with a shout. He's been consistent lately in lower grades but hasn't won in ages. He shouldn't be good enough, though the weight is in his favour. Zanzibar Man goes well at this track and wasn't too far beaten by Orchestrated last month, swing in the weights with this rival gives him a competitive chance, though he has hit the crossbar a bit too often and his last win dated back almost a year in lower class. Dark horse could be Leeuloop Jet. A good deal beaten by Orchestrated the last time, he usually loves track and trip as he is 2 from 3 over course and distance. He's coming down in the weights and rated to be competitive today with conditions very much to suit. He was only a lengths beaten on his penultimate run by a lightweight, a repeat of that form should see him going close. Interestingly top jockey Piere Strydom gets the leg up, which must mean that a strong run is expected. Strydom has a 24% strike rate with trainer Moffatt and steered Leeuloop Jet to two wins last season. So to see him up again is a confidence boost. Leeuloop Jet is a 9/1 chance with looks too big and the value in this field. Leeuloop Jet @ 9/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting Great ride by Strydom from the front, for all it wasn't quite enough as the favourite came with a late run to win in the final strides. 2nd or Leeuloop Jet. Some breaking news emerging this morning - South Africa's top rated Horse Futura, has moved stables from Brett Crawford to Justin Snaith in dramatic circumstances as it was reported earlier: "The majority partners of Futura, Jack Mitchell and John Freeman, wished to record that they were presented with an ultimatum by their partner that they either buy him out or sell Futura to an overseas buyer, failing which he would force Futura to be sold by public auction within a matter of days. His offer to sell has been accepted and the remaining partners felt it untenable to continue in a stable where their ex-partner has close ties. Therefore, Futura has been moved to Snaith Racing. The intention is to race the horse in Durban for the season and thereafter decide on his future." http://www.sportingpost.co.za/2015/03/futura-justin-snaith-futura-its-official/

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting 2.10 Fairview: East Cape Sprint Cup (Listed) Copper Parade is a proper Grade 1 horse running at Listed level today. There are reasons for that, as he can be bit temperamental in times and hasn't been seen since January. Bigger targets are on the mind of connections with the big Grade 1 sprints looming. He is the top rated sprinter in the country due to his success in the Premier G1 Computaform Sprint last year and a subsequent runner-up effort in the G1 Mercury Sprint. He's been a bit up and down in the next three, but dropping big time in class today, he is clearly the one the others have to beat. That says he is a slightly better horse over 1.000m but has won over further in the past, so 1.200m should be okay and class should prevail. On official ratings he is well in today. Main opponent should be the only filly in the race, Yoshie. A multiple winner of sprint races at listed level, she is well in the weights compared with most rivals and should run a very big race. However she has loads to find on the ratings with Copper Parade. In-form horse Unannounced won four on the bounce and should be competitive, but as most in this field, has mainly been running in handicaps. If things go normal, Copper Parade can't get beaten here. A 115 rated individual against 100 rated horses and lower. This discrepancy is not offset by weight allowances at all, so if he runs to his ability, it should be game over at 200m post. Copper Parade @ 5/4 Sportingbet - 10pts win

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting Majmu won on Saturday the big Grade 1 Empress Club Stakes in tremendous style - her second Grade 1 on the bounce as she also won the Cape Fillies Guineas, and trainer Mike De Kock is speaking very highly of this filly. A potential overseas campaign is in the pipeline, but for this season she'll be taken ‘Daily News-Durban July route’. They reckon Majmu could be better than Igugu, who was already an absolute superstar in South Africa. The way this filly quickened away in the closing stages at Turffontein was just breathtaking. The only question mark is if she can actually get much further than the 1.600m trip. The way she finishes her races suggest she may stay 2.000m, but even further? On pedigree it is doubtful with loads of speed on sire and dam line. We'll find out - maybe sooner than later, if she takes her chance in the SA Fillies Classic!

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting South African Derby - Great finish in the Derby on Saturday at Turffontein. Legal Eagle romped home to take the big prize! He won the Derby trial earlier the month already and clearly had no problem with the extra two furlongs. SA Classic winner French Navy didn't quite get home, finished third, while favourite Ertijaal, wo won the Cape Derby this season already, finished only in 4th. He may drop back to ten again and can be a force then I suspect.

No Fillies Triple Crown winner this year. Siren's Call, who won two legs of it already, was denied in the SA Oaks in cruellest of cruel ways - piped on the line:

Wylie Hall got redemption for his cruel demotion in the Durban July when he landed the big Grade 1 Champions Challenge. He beat red hot favourite Majmu. The 3yo De Kock filly was odds-on to beat the boys but had to settle for second:

Two fillies fought it out in the big 1.000m dash Computaform Sprint. In the end it was three year old Alboran Sea who continued to progress impressivelly to take one of the biggest sprints in the racing calendar:

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Re: South African Horse Racing Betting 2.45 Greyville: Rising Sun Gold Challenge (Grade 1) The race is on and I couldn't be more excited. The Group 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge gives us the mouthwatering clash of South Africa's heavyweights Legislate VS Futura. The two stars have made it through their preparations and trainer Justin Snaith is happy to let them take each other on. Snaith, who is in the unique position to train both of them, recently said when talking about this: "I had good horses before. But these are the real deal. They would take on anything in the world - they are THAT good." LEGISLATE Reigning horse of the year, reigning Durban July champ, Guineas and Daily News winner - he's done it all in 2014. Heading into the Queen's Plate back in January, South Africa's Premier Mile race, he was thought to be virtually unbeatable. Weeks before he stuffed his rivals, including Futura, in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, when returning from a deserved break after winning the biggest race of them all, the Durban July. That's when the problems started. After Aan unusually dismal performance in the Queen's Plate it emerged that Legislate suffered from a severe lung infection. That took him out for months to get over it. He also missed his intended return to the track recently, when he injured himself while loading into the stalls. So, how much ability can Legislate retain? Is he 100% today? According to Justin Snaith, Legislate couldn't be any better. He's ready to go, though it's hard to know whether he's back to his brilliant best. One the positive side: Legislate looked sensational in his public work, effortless floating over the ground. What's more, Legislate usually runs very well as a fresh horse. He always made a successful return - bar the Queens Plate race, where we know he wasn't right. He's also unbeaten at Greyville and clearly has the speed and turn of foot for 1.600m as a former Guineas winner. FUTURA A hype horse at this time last year. Futura was a massive market mover for the Durban July, South Africa's most important race. But he wasn't tested in Grade 1 company yet back then. He looked an emerging star - or a bubble ready to burst - whatever way you wanted to see it. But he proved his class when running out a strong third in the July, with the run of the race clearly against him. He redeemed himself soon after, landing a deserved first success on the highest level. He hasn't looked back since then, bar one race: When put into his place by Legislate in the Green Point Stakes. But he subsequently completed the Queen's Plate & Met double - which is a rare feast! The handicapper reacted, put Futura's rating up to massive 120 - which means he's one of the top rated horses in the world now - mind you, 3lb better than Legislate! Futura had a little break afterwards but was back as strongly as ever when winning a minor race in preparation to the Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month. The general perception is that 1.600m is not an ideal trip for him - 2.000m seems the distance. However his record over 1.600m speaks for itself. 6-4-1-1. Never been out of the money. BEST OF THE REST Of course this is not a two-horse-race. Ten more or less well fancied rivals try to land a blow against the two big guns. Ice Machine with Anton Marcus on board is the closest pursuer in the betting. He was an impressive winner of his prep race recently and loves the trip. Not one you want to underestimate but on bare form has has a little to find. The rest of the field can only hope that the race turns into a muddling affair, which may not quite suit the heavyweights, and as a result they may encounter in-running trouble. There was a shock winner in this very same race twelve month ago, so it's not quite out of the world. A sprint finish would probably suit Willow Magic most. He ran well in a big Grade 1 sprint recently but stays 1.600m. VERDICT I believe a Legislate at his best is the best horse in South Africa - better than Futura too. Before his injury troubles this was the general perception. He was virtually unbeatable, went into the Queen's Plate a 9/20 chance! Over 1600m he has an advantage against Futura as well. But only if he can find back to his brilliant best. The race will tell us if the old Legislate is back. Visually he looked superb in his work. He goes well fresh and I give him the benefit of the doubt today. He he's almost twice as big in the betting as Futura. Convert his odds into a percental chance: 11/4 = 26.6667%. So if I ask myself: Is Legislate a better chance in this field, if anywhere near his best? Absolutely! I'd nominate Willow Magic as the joker in the race and wouldn't be surprised if Halve The Deficit can outrun his big price tag - although both shouldn't be anywhere good enough if things go normal. Legislate @ 11/4 Sportingbet - 10pts Win

[robertob]

Re: South African Horse Racing Betting The champ is back - Legislate from the front. Overcame the widest draw effortless, had them all on the stretch turning for home and held on gamely. Great to see him back to his best! Mighty performance from Futura too. Was eating up the ground on the outside coming from well off the pace. He's Durban July bound now. Not sure if Legislate is heading the same direction.

[robertob]

Re: South African Horse Racing Betting Replay from the Gold Challenge: https://youtu.be/LP0_odIcQwk

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3.00 Scottsville: Track & Ball 'Derby'(Grade 2) This stayers contest has been won by Hot Ticket last year in impressive fashion, when it was still held at now defunct Clairwood racecourse over half a furlong longer trip. Now at Scottsville over 2.400m, the same result is expected nonetheless. Hot Ticket is the hot favourite, and for all the right reasons. He's South Africa's top stayer, 112 rated, and has a prime chance in this field with the official ratings weights very much in is favour. No doubt, he'll be hard to beat as he should be in peak form today after two decent prep runs over shorter. The only thing that may find him out is the trip. 2.400m on quick ground is potentially not his optimum. Nonetheless, I give him a 50% chance of winning the race, given that the opposition has so much to find on the ratings. Realistically there are only three other runners able to put a fight to Hot Ticket. Disco Al has been in good form lately and stays the 2400m trip well. He is, however, slightly below top class level and was beaten by 5.5 lengths in this race last year. This Ramsden charge is well exposed these days and while sure to run his race, is likely to fall short. Double Clouth is an improving sort. He tries this trip for the first time and if he stays it it may well help him to progress even further - however there isn't much in his pedigree suggesting he'll stay it. There is pace on here and it probably will find him out. Also on the upward has been Kingston Mines. He has progressed from low grade handicaps into a multiple Grade 2 winner in the staying division. He is likely to be setting the pace here and has top jockey Delpech in the saddle. He was disappointing in his last two starts and has a good deal to find on the ratings. Blinkers are on though, and that could well help to squeeze out a bit of improvement again. The two three year old's Krambabuli and Mater James should find it very tough to compete. Even so the former one has to be respected coming from a top yard with an unexposed profile. Says trip and class are against him. Verdict: No doubt, Hot Ticket is very hard to beat here. However I feel Kingston Mines is a real threat and underestimated. He developed into a very good stayer, is a multiple Stakes winner and is likely to make all from the front with first time blinkers added. He'll ensure to set a good pace and will try to stretch them entering the home straight. If this turns out to be the stamina test is should be then, there are only him and the favourite likely to be suited by it. Given that we know how good Hot Ticket is, but can't be quite sure yet whether Kingston Mine has reached his full potential, I side with this overpriced De Kock runner. If he can improve for the new headgear, he's in for a very big performance. Kingston Mines @10/1 Sportingbet - 5pts Win

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2.40 Kenilworth: Queen's Plate (Grade 1)

Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn't come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes. 

He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he's become a proper Grade 1 horse. He's likely to attempt to make all.

The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he's probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip. 

Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can't be taken lightly either, although he's best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn't make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.

This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It's certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.

Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He's better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.

Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class - Mike De Kock's Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.

Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn't be too far off either.

The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish. 

If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he's the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago. 

So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he's a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can't ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa. 

De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me. 

Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill - 5pts Win

[robertob]

3.55 Kenilworth: MR 85, 1.600m

An open enough looking contest, though you have to give the advantage to the three year olds, given they receive and handful of weight and are seemingly more talented than the majority of older horses in this contest. 

The two top rated older horses Mountain Master and Waiting For Rain are dropping in the ratings though and if they run up to their best have excellent chances to feature. 

However the 91 rated 3yo colt Fifty Cents is very much favoured to take the step up in trip in his strides. He's a fair chance on pedigree and seemed to stay 1.400m thoroughly the last time. 

I very much like the other three year Speed Limit, though, who has already won over course and distance and stayed 1.60om very strongly when getting off the mark in a maiden the last time. 

His opening mark off 83 is stiff enough, but Speed Limit has the assistance of top drawer Anthony Delpech today. That in itself seems a vote of confidence. At 7/1 he is the value in the race in my mind. 

Speed Limit @ 7/1 William Hill - 5pts Winner

[robertob]

2.15 Greyville: Mr 86 Handicap, 1.200m

With the scratching of Highway Explorer and Piano Man this Handicap is decimated by two of the more likelier sorts where now only three horses can be realistically have a chance to win, as long as they run to their true form. 

The three year old Cutting Edge has an edge in the weights and should strip fitter today after a fine comeback run in December. He's the highest rated individual in this race and with Delpech on board will be a major player.

That says I'm keen on De Kock's Jayyed today. He's coming off a half year long break, however seems best as a fresh horse and won a maiden plate last year after a similar lay-off over this 1.200m trip. The switch to polytrack should suit perfectly on pedigree, and after having to face top class opposition in graded company in all his last starts, this represents a much easier task. 

There is the chance the run is only to sharpen him up and bigger targets may be ahead, over further distances as well. But with a talented apprentice on board who takes off valuable 2.5kg I feel Jayyed must have a serious say in the closing stages, as long as he doesn't miss the break, something he did a couple of times last year. 

Jayyed @ 11/2 VC - 5pts Win

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2.50 Greyville: MR 74 Handicap, 1000m

Favourite Hooponopono is way to short in my mind. He's consistent but has to prove he's capable of winning off his current rating. 

A better alternative seems the one year younger All True Man, who has to some extend a similar profile, but is a much bigger price. If you forgive ATM his last performance which was too bad to be true, then you see an ultra consistent runner who is one from one over course and distance and who's been knocking on the door in similar races lately.

Going from pole position today combined with the handy 2.5kg apprentice allowance of Tristan Godden could give him the edge in this contest. 

All True Man @ 11/2 VC - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Yayyed was a winner - albeit a close one, in a very, very tight photo call!

 

11.50 Fairview: Pinnacle Stakes, 1000m

An open looking contest where class horse Copper Parade is a fair measure stick given he was placed in a Grade 2 lately. He is two from four starts over this course and distance, so is very well respected and sure to run a big race. 

Late bloomer Blizzard Belle seems to be the main danger. Bidding for a four-timer today, the five year old has excelled over the minimum trip in recent weeks achieving a career best in December when landing a MR86 Handicap off top weight. 

The three year old Oriental Tiger is an intriguing contender. Lightly raced and showing some potential, he could have still more to offer. He's coming as a fresh horse into the race, is badly out off the weights, but probably hasn't shown his true form yet. With Domeyer up he's got to be respected.

Cauclair is a great little money spinner and can be competitive after winning his latest race two weeks ago, though the drop to the minimum trip is not ideal and he might be beaten for speed by quicker sorts at this downhill sprint track.

The highest rated horse in the field is The West Is Wide. He might be slightly flattered by his current rating off 106 as he was disappointing in his last three starts. However he loves this trip and is a course winner as well. He's well weighted to go close if he can find back something of his best. Dropping down to 1.000m can only be a help and Agrella booked for the ride is a big bonus. 

Summary: It's fair to say that Copper Parade is the horse to beat after his runner-up effort in Grade 2 company. His win record isn't the best lately though. He's a fair price in a competitive little affair but the value lies with the top rated The West Is Wide. If rejuvenated by the return to this track and trip he could easily outrun his price tag.

The West Is Wide @ 10/1 VC - 5pts Win

[robertob]

1.35 Fairview: MR 84 Handicap, 2000m

Muzi Yeni has a sensational record riding for du Plessis, so Oh So Modus must rate a massive chance. The four year old already is a course and distance winner too and proved himself to be in fine form lately. 

You don't have to look far for dangers though. Another four year old gelding, the Justin Snaith trained Galao has been running extremely well, having been placed or won in all his last four starts. 

The eight year old veteran Money Grubber is probably in the grip of the handicapper at the moment, however can't be taken lightly as this is his trip. 

However I take a chance with the only three year old in the race, Seattle Swing. Still rather lightly raced, he may be able to improve for what he has shown so far. He won over 1600m on yielding ground last season, followed later by an impressive success here on the polytrack over 2.200m. Off only 52kg I see a chance of him being extremely well in, though only if he can take another step forward  given this is a tougher race than those he contested in before. 

Seattle Swing @ 10/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[sadesh]

what an amazing performance by Clairwood...