Have you ever staked too much on the wrong things/not enough on the right things ?

[MPLouis]

This is about staking, and how to improve it to minimise losses and maximise profits. On Sunday, I identified a 'crunch' game where both teams had to win, and followed it in-play. It was an Argentinian second leg playoff game - Temperley v Fenix. In the 85th minute, Temperley were winning 1-0, so I knew Fenix would be chasing the game. I was looking to back late 'overs'. At the same time, I noticed Fenix were winning all the corners in the second half - as they were chasing. I staked £40 on somewhat speculative Fenix corners, average odds of 1.7. Then I staked £6 on over 1.5 goals, average odds of 4.0 Fenix didn't get any more corners - Temperley did - so the corner bets lost. Temperley got an injury time penalty and the final score was 2-0, so the overs bets won. I staked 40 on the corner bets, and lost £40. I staked £6 on the overs bets, so won £18. So my net loss on these bets was £-22 I'm left feeling frustrated that I had a very good winning bet on the overs, but still lost quite a bit through staking more on the more speculative corners. I have been wondering WHY my instinct was to stake MORE on the corner bets and LESS on the overs bets? Was it just that the odds were longer on the overs bets so part of me just decided they were therefore more risky?? I've also noticed this bad staking pattern has happened a few times, and I'm sure it's cost me quite a bit of money. Have you staked too much on the wrong things and too little on the right things? Any comments? :)

[froment]

Re: Have you ever staked too much on the wrong things/not enough on the right things Yup, it happened to me a lot of times; sometimes I lost only few quid, but there were bigger losses at times. Common denominator for all those losses is discipline (i.e., the lack of...) - each such a loss was after successfull winning streak, so I felt overconfident, just as if I couldn't lose any bet, or while trying to recover the loss, chasing it... which is my favourite staking plan. :$ For me, those were not the losses themselves that were frustrating (I strictly keep betting bank under control; as they say, bet only what you can afford to lose), but it was repeated losing pattern that made me furious - my analysis had showed that it was a no-bet situation, yet gambler within me had tickled me, "Come on, that bet cannot lose, go on!". And sure enough, I had placed bet, and it lost; and each time I promised myself not to repeat it again, but nevermind, I keep repeating the same mistake time and again.

I have been wondering WHY my instinct was to stake MORE on the corner bets and LESS on the overs bets? Was it just that the odds were longer on the overs bets so part of me just decided they were therefore more risky??

It probably was. I frequently had the same issue, to identify a value bet according to stats and available sources, but then I gave it up only because the odds were much higher than I expected - I thought to myself, odds are not that high without reason, there must be something I don't know! It took me a lot of time and discipline to overcome that obstacle, not to judge my selections based on available odds only, and I still have not come in terms with that, I still hesitate to place a bet if the odds are way too high. On the other hand, stakes dependent on the odds is common staking strategy - it's level profit system; you decide the fixed profit that you target, and then stake vary depending on odds - higher the odds, lower the stake, and vice versa. Hence, it was not without reason to stake less on higher odds, but there should be a measure, so the stakes are proportional. In this case, following that plan, stake on overs should have been 9.33, so you would have lost 12 units instead of 22, or stake on corners 25.7, so you would have lost 7.7 units...