Jump Racing Wednesday 15th May

[joeblitz]

2.55 Perth Man With Van 10/11 BetFred BOG Man With Van was below par the last day at Hexhame when tying up close home at Hexham when beaten by Knockanrawley. Should be fitter now and on this more suitable track should gain his revenge, 10 Points win Man With Van 10/11 BetFred BOG 3.25 Perth Hold Em Cowboy 15/8 BOYLESPORTS BOG Hold Em Cowboy won over hurdles here last night and is turned out quickly again, this time over fences. Although not as good over fences he is the one to beat with his stable flying. 10 Points win Hold Em Cowboy 15/8 Boylesports BOG 4.55 Tipperary Cillians Return 5/4 Bet365 BOG Cillians Return made light work of Vigil at Fairyhouse lto and with the runner up winning even easier at Leopardstown next time he cannot be opposed here despite moving to a questionable stable. if he is off he wins. 10 Points win Cillians Return 5/4 Bet365 BOG

[Darran]

Re: Jump Racing Wednesday 15th May 5.15 Gunmoney – Deserved his hunter chase victory at Leicester back in February and has finished 2nd in his other 4 hunter chases, but his jockey is always going to be a concern. Since finishing 2nd to Golan Way at Warwick he has finished 2nd in the three point-to-points. He was outclassed by Penmore Mill in the first of them, but then in the other two the word outridden has appeared in the form comments. I was at Kimble for the first of those efforts on Easter Saturday and I do think the jockey’s made the difference on that occasion when he was just denied by Marufo. It was a similar story at Garthorpe wen Say No beat him by a short head. That was over 3m4f, but there was only 3 runners so probably wasn’t much of a test of stamina and I have stamina worries over this far. Arguably the best horse in the race, but he looks worth taking on. Country Foolery – Won a bad maiden in a slow time at Peper Harow at the beginning of the month and shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough. Crazy Eyes – Fortunately for those of us that heard Hayley Moore commentating she is a much better rider than she was behind the microphone. She needs to work very hard on this horse as well as he is a very quirky sort and he has finished 2nd on all four starts this year. I saw him two starts back at Godstone where he got going way too late but finished 3L behind Double Mead. It was the same story at Penshurst where it was Rear Gunner who he finished 3L behind. He was exactly the same when he was last seen under Rules back in 2011 so it is hard to see him winning, but I can easily see him running on into a place. Pastek – His jockey/trainer/owner didn’t take up riding until he was 42 and has had a bit of success with this horse. He caused a surprise at Milborne St Andrew when winning and he followed that up with a good 2nd at Barbury. Was back to his usual form next time though and unseated at the first last time out. Fell at this meeting last year and always been well beaten in hunter chases. Peyekashe – Not without ability, but he doesn’t always want to show it. He was a well beaten 3rd when I saw him at Godstone back in March, but managed a very respectable 3L 2nd to Dante’s Storm at Hackwood after that. He beat Terra Bleu by 12L at Larkhill, but then sulked in a match back at Hackwood and last time he would have been 2nd at Peper Harow but unseated at the last. The first Hackwood effort gives him a chance here but otherwise he looks opposable. Showman – I have no idea how this very quirky sort has managed to win two races this season at Godstone and Parham, but I think it says more about the opposition he was facing than him. Was pulled up at 50/1 in this last year and doubt he will improve on that. Sobre Tresor – Is progressing nicely and put up a really good performance to finish a close 2nd to the decent looking Bradley Brook on his Rules debut at Exeter last week. They were miles clear of the rest so it looks solid enough form. He has won twice already this season in points and his best effort was when finishing 4th in a decent Mixed Open at Kingston St Mary and the 3rd Iron Chancellor hacked up at Newton Abbot last week. He looks like he should stay this far and has a leading chance. Supreme Regime – Seems to be improving with every start since coming over from Ireland and seems to stay well. Won his Restricted at Cold Harbour earlier this month which followed a staying on 2nd at Chepstow on his Rules debut. Granted he was beaten 20L, but the winner was a class above and the 3rd Doc Wells went and won at Ffos Las on Tuesday albeit of a mark of only 77. Another place contender. Terra Bleu – Well behind Peyekashe at Larkhill and would be a surprise winner. Wor Rom – Saw him win in testing conditions at Godstone back in March, but not so good on better ground since being only 4th back there next time, was 12L behind Crazy Eyes, and 3rd at Aldington last time. Unlikely to figure. Summary – I was expecting Gunmoney to be a pretty short price favourite here and Sobre Tresor at an e/w price, but they are even joint favourites in places. At the prices Gunmoney has to be the bet as although the jockey and stamina issues worry me, he is the best horse in the race by a clear margin and the others have a bit to find. I know connections of Sbore Tresor are worried about the quickening ground and as much as I like him he is no value at the prices. Crazy Eyes is worth backing in the place only market. Tip Gunmoney Alternative Crazy Eyes place only 5.45 Ashanti Moon – Made his debut at Parham in March and it was a solid enough debut to finish a length 2nd to a horse who had shown some ability. Those in behind aren’t up too much however. Big Kev – 2nd to Country Foolery at Peper Harow last time, but that is weak form. Runs as if the drop in trip will suit, but was well behind Tompatpeg when last of four at Parham last month. I’m Not Telling – Ran in a couple of points last season over 3m and 2m4f but didn’t see either race out as was the case on his seasonal return over 2m4f. He had shown ability in 4 bumper runs at the end of 2012 and last summer, the best of which was an 8L 3rd at Worcester. Last month he ran in his 4th point and not only did he finally complete he also won pretty easily. It was fairly clear he must have a wind problem and it was no surprise that win coincided with a first time tongue-tie. That is back on again tonight and he will also have the assistance of Will Biddick. Jacks Lastchance – Caught my eye on debut when 4th at Godstone back in March. It wasn’t a strong heat though and he has looked rather quirky in his two subsequent starts. He dead-heated last time at Aldington (although he looked to have finished 2nd) but again it was a poor contest and he hung under pressure. The shorter trip may help him, but he is hard to fancy. Mizen Mix – Has achieved the most of all these in points being the only horse to have actually won two races. He showed a little ability in Ireland, but has done well since coming to England. He won his debut here in January at Higham when beating a big field, which included Big Kev who was miles back in 7th. He then unseated at the first at Ampton when he was a well back favourite in a decent Restricted. After that he got his 2nd win in a weak little race at Marks Tey, but he ran out a pretty easy winner. He was then sent off favourite for an Intermediate at High Easter where he was in contention until suddenly weakening before pulling up. Something must have been amiss that day as his jockey dismounted and if all is well now he has a leading chance in a shocking race. Reste Jeune – He clearly doesn’t stay 3m and although he finally got round over the full distance last time he was beaten 40L! I saw him finish 2nd over this trip at Barbury last season, but it was a very weak race and as bad as this race is he has no chance. Tompatpeg – Showed a bit of ability in Ireland and has done the same again here although it has been at a lowly level and his maiden win came in a weak race at Parham. Hill Forts Gloria – Her best recent Rules run came at Huntingdon when 3rd off a mark of 65 last August. That tells us what we are dealing with here. I saw her finally lose her maiden tag at Kimble on Easter Saturday and she won by a fairly comfortable 5L. So on the face of it you would think a decent effort, but the race was a truly shocking affair, indeed it was so bad I couldn’t even come up with a bet in the race. James Tudor takes the ride so that is a plus, but she is sure to be over-bet because of her connections and I can’t have her at all. Summary – This is a bad race, but I can only fancy two horses Mizen Mix and I’m Not Telling. Mizen Mix has shown the best form of these this season and he has to be the pick and hopefully I’m Not Telling will be an e/w bet as he has improved for the tongue-tie and of course has Will on top. Tip Mizen Mix NB Alternative I’m Not Telling e/w if possible 6.15 Bedrock Fred – Likes it as fast as possible and he will need it to dry out a lot to help his chances. The trip should be ideal for him, but what won’t help is he always jumps out to his right and although he gets away with it in points, he has won both starts this season at Larkhill, he didn’t get away with it in his only hunter chase so far at Market Rasen and that has to be a big worry here. Behind The Scenes – Good 2nd to Little Legend on this card a couple of years ago when it was still at Folkestone but has struggled this season and although he won well 12 days ago at Peper Harow, he doesn’t seem as good as was. Bigasabishop – Was a close 4th in this race two years ago and then ran a huge race in a Towcester Maiden Chase when he was still in with a chance when falling at the last in a race won by current pointer/hunter chaser How’s My Friend. He has struggled on the whole since despite some place form this season and although the slight drop in trip will help that form isn’t good enough here. Daintydavey – Won his Restricted well at High Easter last season, but has struggled since especially in two starts this season and hard to see him getting involved. Fitz Volonte – Pretty poor under Rules and was well beaten in his first two points this season, but was his riders first winner when winning a Maiden at Mollington last month and that wasn’t a bad effort. Even so it will be surprising if he was good enough to win this. Galbally King – Is another one who ran on this card at Folkestone a couple of years ago and ran well to finish 2nd to a good horse in It Was Me. He has run well since including finishing 2nd at Huntingdon a year ago. This season he has won 4 times, although walked over for the latest of those, and finished 2nd twice. He loves it at Cottenham and two of his wins came there and on the opening day of the season he finished 2nd to John Ferguson’s Dreamy George who has won under Rules since. The reason he loves Cottenham is because it is the shortest point track in the country and 2m6f around here should be ideal for him. Should make a bold bid to make all. Gamato - A horse who often struggles but I did see him show a bit of promise at Barbury in the season and he eventually won a Restricted at Charing before winning at Hackwood last time. Neither efforts are particular strong pieces of form though, but he does have it in him to run a fair race. John Daniell – Here we see good old Amanda Bush take the ride. We all know her for her efforts on How’s My Friend in the last couple of seasons and obviously she hasn’t looked good on him. The thing is he is a hard ride, whereas this horse she gets on really well with this horse and has won plenty on him. This season he attempted to give Gwanako a race on his seasonal return at Ston Easton and there was no discredit of course in finishing 2nd to him. He then just won in a fast time at Badbury Ring, before hacking up at Lockinge over Easter. 11 days ago he was a very good 1L 2nd to the prolific pointer Byeley Bear at Holincote. He has the best form in the race and the only concern is he has finished a close 2nd over 4m and given the jockey you just worry if he might be finishing too late in the day to get up, but he does have pace and has a massive chance. Ladfromhighworth – Well beaten in two hunter chases at Newton Abbot last month and hard to see him improving on that here. Lucky Lane – Very one paced and his 3rd at Cartmel last season came in one of the worse hunter chases of the season. Righteous Glory – A good 3rd at this meeting in 2011, but not so good in 2012 and has been in awful form this season. My Beautiful Betty – Won a maiden in 2009 and went missing for a few seasons until turning up this year at the age of 13. I think I would have a chance of beating her. Summary – Only 3 horses can win this Bedrock Fred, Galbally King and John Daniell. I am concerned about Bedrock Fred’s jumping so will be backing the other two. Galbally King is just going to get the vote as I think he might be hard to peg back and has the better jockey on, but I am certain John Daniell will be closing fast at the finish. Tip Galbally King Alternative John Daniell 6.50 Benheir – On last season’s form he would win this. He won a Ffos Las handicap off 130 in December 2012 and was 2nd to Carruthers at the same venue shorter after. The problem is he seems to love heavy ground and Ffos Las and he gets neither here. The other problem is this season he has shown absolutely nothing pulling up in two points and then finishing a very remote 2nd in a Fakenham hunter chase. He is impossible to back on what he has done this year. Double Dizzy – Ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival when finishing 10th in the Cross-Country race. Has had a good career, but although he has run respectably this season in points he has struggled to get really competitive and his old legs don’t seem capable of going fast enough anymore. Kornati Kid – Is very quirky although gave his young jockey a first point winner on his first ride when he won at Barbury in December. I was there that day and it was a fair effort, the problem is he hasn’t really run up to that form since. He was a well beaten 3rd back there last time and then took no interest when pulling up on his next start. His 3rd last time came in a weak race and if he does decide he is on a going day he isn’t totally out of this, but he is a hard horse to trust. Masked Man – Was a shock winner of the Grand Artillery in 2012 but then pulled up in 5 of his 6 subsequent starts. He has had three point starts this season and it is fair to say the form doesn’t exactly excite me. The 4th behind Rear Gunner at Parham wasn’t too bad an effort, but his two wins have come in weak races at Penshurst and Aldington. In the later he beat a 13yo by 3L albeit comfortably. He does at least stay well. Quarry Town – He was stuffed at Peper Harow last time and has no chance here. Start Royal – No doubt he has the best recent form in this race. He was a massive disappointment on the first day of the season at Cottenham and I wondered if maybe he was on the downgrade. But he certainly isn’t as he has won at Higham, Kingston Blount and Kimble. Each time Rossmore Lad, who runs in the next, was the horse to chase him home and he has got closer each time being just 2L behind him on Easter Saturday. I have two issues with him however. First of all he has always struggled to get involved in hunter chases. He won at Folkestone a couple of years ago, but he was probably a lucky winner that day although he has run in much stronger races than this to be fair. The other issue though is his stamina. He has always wanted a bare 3m and although he has probably been staying a bit better this season 3m4f round here is a tough ask. He does have the best jockey on in the race but I have always thought he has been vulnerable under Rules and I really do struggle to see him staying even in a race like this. Theophrastus – Won an Exeter handicap in 2011 off a mark of 109 and proved he stays well by finishing 3rd in the South West National at the same venue shortly after. He then went missing for a couple of years returning last year when finishing a decent 3rd at Towcester before pulling up twice. He also pulled up on his first point start this season, but thrashed Crazy Eyes by 15L at Parham in March. That was a decent effort and given he stays well he should go close here. Summary – This is a horrid race to try and find the winner off and I will be having my smallest bet of the night. Benhair would be able to carry these and still win if he returned to the form he showed last season, but that has to be a massive if. Masked Man’s wins this season have come in weak races and don’t excite me. Kornati Kid is a complete monkey, whilst the horse with the best recent form, Start Royal, is a doubtful stayer. That leaves me with the bet having to be Theophrastus as we know he stays, and put in a good effort to win last time. Tip Theophrastus 7.25 Foundry Square – Bar a dreadful effort at Ludlow in February and getting outclassed in the Foxhunter, he has had a great season winning twice at Newbury and Ludlow and finishing 2nd three times including at Cheltenham last time. I thought he ran a bit of a strange race at Cheltenham as he dropped himself out before staying on again, but he really should be hard to beat here even though he has to give weight away to the rest. Rossmore Lad – Been beaten by Start Royal three times this season and then fell at Penshurst when possibly just getting the better of Rear Gunner when falling two out. Won a poor Ladies Open easily at Milbourne St Andrew in March and should give a good account. Captain Crackers – Form in points way below the best of these. Owner Occupier – Even worse form than Captain Crackers. Rear Gunner – Ran well at Kempton when 4th in his only hunter chase so far last season. Has rattled off a hat-trick in her last three starts although the form of them (beat Crazy Eyes twice and possibly going to lose to Rossmore Lad last time) isn’t as strong as Foundary Square. His jumping has also always been an issue under Rules in the past. Summary – Foundry Square’s hunter chase form looks rock solid this season and although he has to give weight away to his two main rivals, who both have been running well in points, he really should win this if anywhere near his best. Tip Foundry Square 7.55 Double Mead – Been a prolific pointer and hunter chaser in recent seasons including when winning a really poor renewal of this race last year. I am not sure she has been at her best this season although she has won three times. I saw her win at Godstone in March and I thought she was workmanlike in beating Crazy Eyes. She also won on Sunday at Trebudannon by a couple of lengths. The key piece of form was on her previous start however when she was beaten easily by 15L trying to give 8lbs to Champagne Rosie at Cothelstone. Although not having to give that rival as much weight today she should still finish behind her. I also think she is better over shorter. In her three hunter chase wins last season which were all over further than 3m, she outclassed the opposition, but she has always wanted a shorter trip in the past and looked like it was class rather than stamina that won this race last year. Champagne Rosie – Continued her improvement this season and got the season of to a flyer when beating Sobre Tresor and Theatre Queen (granted she got left 30L at the start) very easily at Wadebridge. Obviously the run two starts back at Cothelstone gives her the beating of Double Mead and she followed that up with a win on Bank Holiday Monday at Littlewindsor beating the Will Biddick ridden Round Tom. Will is back on tonight and she seems to stay well and I think she will be very hard to beat. Summary – It is pointless mentioning the others as it looks a match and firm preference is for the 8yo Champagne Rosie to beat the 12yo Double Mead. I don’t usually put points on the hunter chase previews, but I will be having a maximum bet on her. Tip Champagne Rosie NAP 8.25 Oranger – Struggled in points this season including on Saturday and even the drop down in trip won’t be enough to see him being a player here. Shrewd Investment – Was a bit disappointing after hacking up in a weak hunter chase at Towcester last season. Much better this time around finishing 2nd to Pentiffic and Foundry Square whilst beating the useful yardstick King Of Alcatraz fairly easily at Exeter. Trip round here should be absolutely ideal and has a leading chance. What Of It – Won a weaker renewal of this race last year and has usually been so consistent, but this season hasn’t been so good and ran awfully behind Shrewd Investment at Ludlow last time. Himalayan Express – Caused a shock when winning the 2 miler at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night last season and ran his best race since when finishing a fair 5th in the same race a couple of weeks ago. Hard to see him winning this given his overall record though. Utopian – This young horse will have to carry a top weight of 12-4 here, but looks progressive. He has plenty of speed as he showed when winning a bumper here on his British debut. He also won a hurdle at Ludlow last year. He reappeared in a point this season at Hackwood in March where he ran well before his stamina gave way. He then went to a Fakenham hunter chase where is jumping was rather novicey in the early stages but in the end quickened clear nicely to score. That was a pretty weak race though and although his speed should be to his advantage round here, I expect his jumping to be put under even more pressure in this hotter race. Warwickshire – Showed in points that he is rather keen to say the least and it has been exactly the same story in three hunter chases. Ran really well in the first of them at Stratford and that form has worked out to be very strong. Managed to have enough in the tank to land an easier opportunity at Towcester in his next hunter chase start. He then stepped-up in grade again at Ludlow last time and he burnt himself out yet again and he finished 27L behind Shrewd Investment. Now I do think this even sharper test will suit him better than Ludlow did and I think he should finish in the frame at least, but you have to say it would be a little surprising if he reversed form with Shrewd Investment. Ballagio – Rarely finishes in points and has two squiggles next to his name in the form book which tells you all you need to know. Dunga – Pulled up behind Shrewd Investment at Towcester last season and still not won his maiden yet. Pinsandneedles – Slowly getting the hang of things in this country, but that has come at a very lowly level and shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough. Polyfast – Rated in the 130s when trained by Nicky Henderson but has been awful since going pointing and showed nothing in two hunter chases in 2012. Actually ran his best race for a long time last time, but that is very weak form and something went wrong somewhere with him. Phiroza – Another who should be well out-classed here. Summary – There is plenty of deadwood in this contest and although Utopian showed plenty of speed at Fakenham, I wasn’t impressed with his jumping and I would expect them to go a lot quicker here, especially with Warwickshire in the field, and his jumping well be put under even more pressure here. I like Warwickshire and I think he will be harder to catch here than at Ludlow and will be backing him each-way, but it is hard to see how he can reverse form with Shrewd Investment and his hunter chase form this season reads well. Tip Shrewd Investment Alternative Warwickshire e/w

[Sharp vs Square]

Thursday At The Races 17:05 Perth = 4.Roc Dápsis to be placed(1-2) @ 2.02 MARATHONBET (4/10 stake) A fairly easy bet this one with not so much of a contention here. Both Bordoni & Roc Dápsis represent a strong case of favouritism and I can't see them not dictating the tempo. Expect the expected two crossing the finish line with 2.02 on offer for the french horse at 17:05 Perth today! :hope

[joeblitz]

Re: Jump Racing Wednesday 15th May Even with 3 winner still - 95.86 for the month so far