Stewart's Racing Diary

[stewartd14]

Evening all, I've been a very (embarassingly!) long time off this forum, so I'm very much trying to ease my way back into it. Having developed and fine tuned my speed rating's approach on the flat over the past 2 or 3 years, I am hopeful going into this flat season. As such, this thread will contain regular (weekly or bi-weekly) reviews of the week's racing with a view to identifying horses which I believe are worth backing next time out and potentially going forward as well based on the speed rating they have just run. I will attempt to highlight bets when the horses run, and keep a profit & loss. I will also keep a P & L based on a 1 pt level stake for every run, although I don't expect this to produce a profit. The current list of horses to follow will be updated in this post. The reasoning will be posted in a new post every time. Fingers crossed ! :ok Current List Great Minds Dark Ocean Form: 0 Elle West Form:00 Muwaary My Name is Rio Form:1 Maiden Approach Form: 0 Added 11/05/14 Flycatcher Neighbother Shyron Bretherton Beach Belle Primo Uomo Alertness Initial Alainn Master Planner

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Weekly Review 17/04/14 As this review is the first of its kind, we have summarised performances to follow from the commencement of the Irish turf flat season. Great Minds - SR: 96 (+19) Rated only 77, ran an excellent race to take the prize on the opening day of the Irish flat season at the Curragh. Instinctively, I thought the winning speed rating of 96 might have been too big and inflated due to the soft ground. However, looking back in the field, only the first 2 ran above their rating, being the winner and Srucahan. The 2^nd went on to win off a rating of 87 recently, and the form certainly looks solid. Great Minds, despite being a 4 year old, is still unexposed with only 4 runs in his career, and I fully expect him to still be competitive off his revised mark of. Dark Ocean – SR: 79 (+13) On a day where there wasn’t much in terms of standout figures, Dark Ocean was the star of the show recording a speed rating of 79 in the opening handicap, a full 13 lbs better than his official rating on the day of 66. He has since been upped to a mark of 72, but I believe he can still be very competitive. It was Jedd O Keefe’s horse’s first run of the season, and he’s entitled to come on for the run. He travelled well throughout that day and looks good value to follow up that success. Bred by Dylan Thomas, I wouldn’t be too worried if he was stepped up in trip slightly either. Elle West – SR: 54 (+17) This isn’t my usual type of pick as a horse to back next time, but the lowly rated Elle West was thrown into an average claimer and ran a lot better than her official rating suggested she ought too. She had a lot against her that day, being a filly and a 3 year old against her elders in the early season. She has obliterated her handicap mark with that run and is now rated 60. However, given the disadvantages she had, and her relative inexperience, it may be interesting to follow which route they now decide to take with her. Muwaary – SR: 100 (+18) With a Speed Rating off 100, and winning a decent class 2 handicap, I can see Muwaary stepping up into pattern company as the season progresses. Currently, the handicapper has raised him 10 lbs, but I believe Muwaary can certainly go in again off a mark of 92. The horse was keen early that day, and I don’t believe the 100 speed figure he ran was any fluke. It is worth noting the form of the Gosden yard at present, and if he comes out again, he could certainly be worth following closely. My Name is Rio – SR: 74 (+7) Michael Dods My Name is Rio is the final addition to the list of horses to follow. He made his seasonal debt at Thirsk on Sunday and ran a solid rating of 74, a good 7 lbs above his mark. He has now been raised to a mark of 72, so there is still a strong argument for him being able to follow up given that was his first run of the season.. Being by Captain Rio, he’ll have appreciated the cut in the ground at Thirsk, and I would certainly be in the queue to back him again next time if the price is right on similar ground.

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Elle West - 415 Catterick Mick Easterby's horse runs here off 60, and I don't think she's the worst bet ever. See post 2 for write up. 0.25 pt ew @ SP Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary My Name is Rio - 615 Newcastle Michael Dods horse comes out again tonight off 74. My adjusted rating makes him a good 5lbs well in off this mark and I fancy him to follow up tonight. 0.5 pt win @ 4.4 Betfair Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Nice to see you back mate, and cracking work on the 6.15. :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary

Nice to see you back mate' date=' and cracking work on the 6.15. :ok[/quote'] Thanks :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Dark Ocean - 3.20 Pontefract As identified in the write up in post 2, this horse ran a solid speed rating of 79 on his seasonal debut at Pontefract, suggesting he would be capable of following up even when the handicapper penalised him. He has only gone up to a rating of 72, and given the way he travelled and quickened last time out, I feel he is more than capable of going in again. Has had a decent amount of time to recover from that run, and I'm enthused to see Graham Lee on board again. The good ground is a slight worry given I think he has a preference for further than the mile, but as long as it doesn't get too firm, I fancy him to go in again. 1 pt win @ 7/2 Bet 365

[BillyHills]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Good luck Stew:hope

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Dark Ocean ran no sort of race yesterday, remains on the list. Today, Elle West runs again: 5.05 Redcar ELLE WEST I noted this one as a horse to follow after her seasonal debut at Catterick where she ran with credit (SR: 65) behind some animals rated much higher than her in claiming company. She ran in a handicap off 60 next time out, and never quite seemed comfortable - maybe because of the better going. She runs again today, off the same mark, has an excellent draw in 1 and is back on soft ground. I still have a feeling she could be well in off this mark of 60, and the price of 40/1 is an insult (85.0 + on Betfair). I'm not overly keen on the jockey, and Mick Easterby hasn't exactly been banging them in, but I really don't feel this horse should be 40/1.  0.5pt e/w @ 40/1 Will Hill (BOG) Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Elle West didn't run a bad race, certainly stays in the notebook. One more addition before she runs tomorrow. The next posting will come on Saturday. MAIDEN APPROACH Maiden Approach only had 3 runs as a 2 year old, and although she didn’t dazzle on the clock, she did run 53-66-65. I was personally very surprised that she was able to win over 5f considering she is bred to need at least a mile to perform at her best. This makes her rating’s of 66 & 65 look very strong, and I expect her to be able to improve at least 10 lbs once stepped up in trip as a 3 year old. If she can do that, she will make a mockery of her opening handicap mark of 68. A very strong addition to the list.

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary As per the above, I am more than happy to back Maiden Approach tomorrow, and the price of 7/1 looks massive as she steps up to the mile. As such, I am recommending the biggest bet the thread has seen to date. 2 pts e/w Maiden Approach @ 7/1 Paddy Power

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Review 11/05/14 The list this week combines horses from recent weeks, and also some runners which I have identified from last season (and another addition from the opening day at The Curragh) FLYCATCHER Richard Fahey identified this horse in his stable tour as one of the best handicapped horses in his yard, and I’m more than happy to follow him this season. As a 2 year old, he ran ratings of 49-74-66-75 and he then began his 3 year old career off 69. He duly won on his seasonal debut, where I unfortunately missed him, but I believe he is more than capable of defying the 6lb rise he has received for that win. I still think he is capable of running into the 80's, and I'll follow him for one more run to see if he can put his recent Thirsk disappointment behind him. NEIGHBOTHER I thought Neighbother looked a decent horse when winning his maiden at Warwick, despite only running a speed figure of 67. He never quite fulfilled that promise, and his form seemed to tail off when he was upped in class in the summer. He looked to be coming back to form towards the end of the season, however, finishing 3^rd behind Kenny the Captain (won again since). He then ran a really creditable 6^th behind the likes of Aeolus (should have won the Free handicap) and Musical Comedy (won twice since). His best 4 speed ratings read 77-78-80-77, which suggests Neighbother could easily benefit from his opening rating of 71. SHYRON - SR: 95 I feel that our rating’s looked very accurate at Yarmouth, so I think the performance of Shyron and Bretherton in the 3 year old handicap are more than worth noting. Shyron, trained by George Margarson, came away in fine style to win his seasonal debut at Yarmouth on 21/04, running a very impressive speed rating of 95 – suggesting him to be around 19lbs well in that day. He looks to be a 7f horse, and this was backed up by his disappointing display at Yarmouth on 29/04/14 when he didn’t get home and finished 6/8. However, when he reverts back to 7f, the trip he is bred perfectly for, I have confidence he will prove to be well ahead of the handicapper off his revised mark of 81. BRETHERTON – SR: 100 Bretherton wasn’t a horse who had given me much hope or excitement before this run behind Shyron, but if the rating is to be believed, he is well worth following going forward. Previously a winner off 70 on the all weather, he ran the excellent figure of 100 on only his 2^nd turf start (first was his debut), leading me to believe he is still unexposed on turf and probably leniently treated. He has been raised to a rating of 83 (from 80) for his 2^nd to Shyron and I am confident that on turf, over 7f (looks to be his trip on breeding), he can get his head in front again. BEACH BELLE – SR: 97 I was initially sceptical about the strength of the opening 2 year old maiden at the Curragh back at the end of March. However, as more runners come out of the race, the more I believe it is as strong as the speed figures achieved by the runner suggests. The 97 ran by Beach Belle looks extremely strong, and would have been one of the top 20 debut speed figures ran by any horse last season. Therefore, Beach Belle looks a must to go onto the list. With Coto, Bwana and Danzing Zafeen all having come out and won, and the speed figures being so strong, I think the race is a hot maiden. Therefore, it is more than worth keeping an eye on the other runner’s from the race. As such, I am adding each of those which have not yet won a race to the list, as I fully expect them to make their mark in Maiden company. It is notable that a couple have run since without winning, but I think it’s entirely possible that they bounced after that opening race. Coto, for example, got beaten on his 2^nd start before going on to win at on 28 April at 33/1 (120.0 on Betfair). PRIMO UOMO ALERTNESS INITIAL ALAINN MASTER PLANNER

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary

As per the above, I am more than happy to back Maiden Approach tomorrow, and the price of 7/1 looks massive as she steps up to the mile. As such, I am recommending the biggest bet the thread has seen to date. 2 pts e/w Maiden Approach @ 7/1 Paddy Power

Ran with some promise. Disappointing from a betting point of view but definitely remains on the list.

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 2.25 Leopardstown 1 pt win PRIMO UOMO @ 11/4 Bet 365 Comes out of the strong maiden at The Curragh mentioned above, he has had a nice break since then and should be up to taking this today.

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Primo Uomo didnt look to get home in the ground yesterday. Will need to watch the replay. On to today, and Elle West runs again on better ground. 5.00 Doncaster ELLE WEST I thought Elle West ran well enough last time, just weakening late on in tough conditions over the mile. The drop back to 7f will suit, and to assist, the handicapper has dropped her 3lbs. I feel this is very fair, and fancy her to go very close today.  0.5 pt ew Elle West @ 14/1 Bet 365 Very frustrated I missed the 33s this morning! Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Elle West a creditable 5th, not yet watched the replay. Today: 350 York BRETHERTON See reasoning below re. his run behind Shyron which looks particularly strong. Should handle the ground, well drawn. 0.5 pts ew @ 18/1 Bet365 Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Bretherton ran ok without really threatening. 7.00 Hamilton - DARK OCEAN Having bounced last time, I am still confident Dark Ocean can win off his mark of 72. Perfect conditions here, Graham Lee on board again, and some pace to run at. Currently 12.5 on Betfair which is just massive. 1 pt e/w @ 8/1 generally (BOG)

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary UPDATE [TABLE=width: 1305]

[TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Horse[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD]W/EW[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Result[/TD] [TD]Returns[/TD] [TD]P & L[/TD] [TD]LSP[/TD] [TD]Comments[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]14/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Bretherton[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]19.00[/TD] [TD]7th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Ran with some credit in a tough York race, not pushed too hard. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]30/04/2014[/TD] [TD]Dark Ocean[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]4.50[/TD] [TD]9th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Gave no sort of running, possibly bounced, keep on list[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Dark Ocean[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]9.00[/TD] [TD]2nd[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Ran a really nice race staying on late. Beaten by horse who loves Hamilton, but pulled 2l clear of 3rd. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]23/04/2014[/TD] [TD]Elle West[/TD] [TD]0.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]21.00[/TD] [TD]9th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Raced awkwardly, didn’t look at home on the firm ground, keep on list[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]01/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Elle West[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]41.00[/TD] [TD]5th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Ran with a lot of promise, prominent until fading on the soft ground. Keep on list[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Elle West[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]15.00[/TD] [TD]5th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]By the time of the race the ground turned heavy and again she didn’t get home. Another creditable run though and was very well backed - keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]09/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Maiden Approach[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]EW[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]5th[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Not knocked about on seasonal debut, will come on for run. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Muwaary[/TD] [TD]NO BET ADVISED[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4th[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Ran a good race in the French 1000 Guineas. Worth noting, but likely no further bets[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]24/04/2014[/TD] [TD]My Name is Rio[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]4.40[/TD] [TD]1st[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]1.7[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]Won well, monitor to see how much his mark rises.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]17/05/2014[/TD] [TD]My Name is Rio[/TD] [TD]NO BET ADVISED[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]8th[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Now rated 81, which looks too high. REMOVE[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Neighbother[/TD] [TD]NO BET ADVISED[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]7th[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Another of Fahey's who has looked like he will come on for the run. Keep on list.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]11/05/2014[/TD] [TD]Primo Uomo[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]W[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]3rd[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Hit the front, and didn't get home. Not certain of his ability, but will see if we get a price next time out.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 163] [TR] [TD]Total Bets[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Stakes[/TD] [TD=align: right]12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total Returns[/TD] [TD=align: right]5.45[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P & L (advised)[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P & L (LSP)[/TD] [TD=align: right]-7.25[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Not been much in the way of advised bets recently with the rain just causing a nuisance. A bit frustrating, as Bretherton came in well last time without my cash but never mind ! I have an updated list which will be on it's way shortly which should see a busy June. One for today: 8.15 Newcastle - DARK OCEAN Dark Ocean steps up in trip today, which I mentioned in my opening remarks that he would appreciate. The softer ground is a bit of a worry, but he won on G/S at Pontefract and I still definitely believe he is capable of winning off 72. Looks an e/w bet to nothing at the very least today. 1 pt e/w @ 13/2 Boylesports

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 305 Nottingham ELLE WEST @ 25/1 As mentioned earlier in the thread, this horse is still worth following and the drop in ratings to 55 makes her an even better bet today. She eventually gets better ground - the drop to 6f is a small worry but I'm hoping she has enough in hand to overcome the drop in trip. 1 pt ew @ 25/1 Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 2.30 Doncaster - MAIDEN APPROACH Maiden Approach eventually gets better ground today, and steps up in trip to 10f. As mentioned in my initial write up about her, she was always going to improve for a trip and I feel that she'll improve even more for the step up to 10f. I think she would have got another win on the board over the mile, but she needed it first time out (although this race earnt a strong figure) and I don't think she really enjoyed the softer ground last time. Today, over this trip, on good ground, and with Ryan Moore on board, she looks really good. I'm slightly frustrated she has been moved out of handicap company, as I think she was extremely well placed to make a mockery of her handicap mark of 68 (I think she'll nudge into the 80's over this trip). That said though, if that is to be true, she should take this today and 3/1 is fair. Bigger bet. 3 pt win Maiden Approach @ 3/1 Betfred BOG

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Beverley 2.30 ELLE WEST Beginning to lose faith in this horse, but she's dropped to 52 now, and if you ignore her run last time over a trip too short, her form beforehand was reasonable on a softer surface. She obviously isn't blessed with a huge amount of speed, so the step back up to 7 1/2f is ideal. She did run a decent figure of 62 two starts back at Donny, and if she enjoys the combination of better going combined with the 7f trip, she may look too big at the price. Good to see Paul Quinn take over from Ann Hesketh too. 0.5 pt e/w @ 28/1 Stan James Nottingham 18.30 MAIDEN APPROACH Again, it frustrates me that Maiden Approach is running in Classified company as opposed to claiming company, but 10f on this going is her ideal conditions and I'm hopeful that she can perhaps run better than her OR suggests. She did run a 79 last time (this follows a 77 over the mile two starts back) and this puts her right there with a chance. As I say, she's very well placed to take advantage of her handicap mark, but the price on offer is slightly too big to pass up on, even in a non hcap race. 1 pt win @ 7/1 Bet365

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary Time for an update to the list: UPDATE 06/07/14 Anne's ValentinoThis horse is a nice, relatively un-exposed 4 year old for Malcolm Jefferson who will be worth following as the season progresses. She looks to really have trained on and improved from 3 to 4, and has racked up a couple of wins and a 2nd already this season. The first win at Musselburgh came as a surprise, but the speed figure suggested it was no fluke as she recorded a decent rating of 64. She was only raised a couple of lbs by the handicapper, so it was pleasing to then see her go in again, running a rating of 59. She continued her consistency, running a rating of 64, which makes her current mark of 57 still look generous. She disappointed at Catterick last time, but I feel the key to this horse is the ground as she didn't look at ease on the firmer surface that day. Back on an easier surface next time, I really fancy her to go in again off her current mark. Raise a Billion This 3 year old of Alan Berry certainly isn't going to be a world beater, but I do feel there is some scope to work his current mark. He ran a solid rating of 62 when 2nd at Redcar behind Tinsill, then duly followed up with a win at Hamilton, showing he was indeed well handicapped. Failed to beat Tinsill, and probably ran slightly below par, at Hamilton next time out when running 3rd (speed rating only 53), and then found things happening too fast at Redcar last time. You have to forgive that run to continue following this horse, but I don't believe it was the mark that beat her last time, and I think she can repeat that run of 62, which would make her mark of 52 look very nice. It's worth noting even the poorer 3rd at Hamilton achieved a rating of 53, suggesting 52 is definitely workable. More to follow ...

[stewartd14]

Re: Stewart's Racing Diary 4.40 Redcar 2.5 PTS E/W MAIDEN APPROACH @ 8/1 Again, not ideal conditions for this horse, but the fact she's back into handicap company is a massive positive. I still remain convinced, absolutely convinced, that this filly is better than her mark of 70. Although I still have an incline she's better over 10f (by New Approach), there's no denying she didn't quite get home last time. Back over the mile, on decent ground, and back in handicap company off her mark of 70, I'm going to be really disappointed if she doesn't win today.