Binchy's Lays

[Brad]

Re: Binchy's Lays I've been out in Mansfield on a Sunday night so twiddling your thumbs isn't so bad Binchy.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays

I've been out in Mansfield on a Sunday night so twiddling your thumbs isn't so bad Binchy.

You're not wrong there my friend.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Saturday's Results : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Result[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]08/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]03:05:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]San[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Exitas[/TD] [TD=width: 86]6.75[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£10.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£57.50[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Won[/TD] [TD=width: 97]£57.50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank - £1913.29 Selections - 358 Losers - 304 Strike rate - 85%

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Tomorrow's Selections : System 1 : No Bets System 2 : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 143]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]11/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]02:10:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Hun[/TD] [TD=width: 143]Volnay De Thaix[/TD] [TD=width: 86]3.55[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£20.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£51.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Snoopdog]

Re: Binchy's Lays Binchy, I'll be watching this one. On Napchecker, an unprecidented five newspapers have it napped. I don't fancy it. 220 days off and top weight. Good luck.

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays They were right, we were wrong. Today's Results : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 143]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Result[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]11/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]02:10:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Hun[/TD] [TD=width: 143]Volnay De Thaix[/TD] [TD=width: 86]3.55[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£20.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£51.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Won[/TD] [TD=width: 97]£51.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank - £1862.29 Selections - 359 Losers - 304 Strike rate - 85%

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Tomorrow's Selections : System 1 : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]12/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]06:20:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Kem (AW)[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Harbour Patrol[/TD] [TD=width: 86]3.55[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£20.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£51.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] System 2 : No Selections

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Today's Results : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Result[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]12/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]06:20:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Kem (AW)[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Harbour Patrol[/TD] [TD=width: 86]3.55[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£20.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£51.00[/TD] [TD=width: 97]Lost[/TD] [TD=width: 97]£20.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank - £1882.29 Selections - 360 Losers - 305 Strike rate - 85%

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Tomorrow's Selections : All the P's! System 1 : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]13/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]03:50:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Sou (AW)[/TD] [TD=width: 132]Poyle Vinnie[/TD] [TD=width: 86]3.3[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£20.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£46.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]04:20:00[/TD] [TD]Kem (AW)[/TD] [TD]Pacolita[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£40.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]06:50:00[/TD] [TD]Kem (AW)[/TD] [TD]Persepolis[/TD] [TD]5.7[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]£47.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] System 2 : No Selections

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays I'm starting to think the system has run its course, don't seem to be getting anywhere, going backwards if anything.

[reynard]

Re: Binchy's Lays do not give up binchy you are still about 800 pounds up still! you have to keeping going for a full year until march to really test it fully I really think It could be the end of flat and begining of jumps season factor. we know how you must feel right now you put his system up for us. and of course you feel bad about the current run. but you need to let It run it's course all system's have good and bad times. keep the faith

[anaconda69]

Re: Binchy's Lays Paper trial it if not happy with money on or use lesser stakes otherwise Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum

[anaconda69]

Re: Binchy's Lays Was there no selections today BTW or are you ending it? If ur ending it its more work for us following sadly to look ourselves and the forum is the best for this sharing of information to ease a users time. Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays I am not sure yet, I am going to give it a break for a week and see how I feel next weekend.

[billyboy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Binchy, mate. What's happening with the system? Ok, so things slowed down, but they are still pretty impressive figures. Let us know what you intend doing and if you're not carrying on with it I'd like to thank you for a profitable and interesting thread. If you are carrying on with it then let's get stuck in and make a few quid for Christmas! Billyboy

[bodmin]

Re: Binchy's Lays I would like to thank you as well, for the work you put in. Bodmin

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Hello chaps, thank your kind words. I said last week I would see how I felt this weekend just gone. What I didn't remember when posting that was that it was my other half's graduation so I was out from 6am on Saturday morning! I intend to start the system again, probably with the first selections coming for Wednesday's racing. I am not going to be placing the bets myself but will still put up the selections if anyone wants to follow. I will probably see how it goes and leave it until mid December until I start placing again. Again I would like to thank you for you interest.

[brecki]

Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Binchy and all his followers, just to show what has happened so far, I actualisized my excel-sheet of Binchy`s lays using Betfair Starting Price (BSP). Regarding the chart we can see that the system still has an impressive performance. But the problem of every system - and we all know this - are EMOTIONS !!! To solve this problem we can use a simple thing here: Just don`t lay horses with a BSP under 4. Quite simple as that and your emotions and doubts will nearly disappear. We must always remember : It is absolutely normal that horses who have a BSP in the area of 1-4 often win races as the price is nothing else than another expression for the probability a selection has to win !!! I investigated Binchy`s selections and found out the following interesting facts: 30 of 98 Lays with odds under 4.00 lost = 30.6% 31 of 289 Lays with odds 4.00 or higher lost = 10.7% If we only layed the horses with odds 4.00 or higher, only one of ten horses let us down. That wouldn`t hit us too hard emotionally and we wouldn`t develop any doubts like there was a break when flat season ended or similar stupid ideas. And if you believe it or not: The total performance remains the same while the emotions and doubts are wiped off !!! What happens when disgarding low odds you can see in my excel-sheet as the chart loses much of its ups and downs and the bankroll develops more consistantly. That´s what we want and need I think. So @Binchy follow my advice: Don´t drop your fantastic work - You have found a system that is very profitable. Just take the facts I have written above into account and the fun will come back soon while the doubts will disappear. Everyone who wants to get a copy of my excel-sheet just post an email-adress here or drop a personal message including your email-adress. Regards, Brecki

[billyboy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Brecki thanks for a very interesting read. i'd like to see your spreadsheet but I can't work out how to send you a pm!?! this is a fairly safe email address so would you send it to montagueharris@liveDOTcom? cheers and I look forward to reading it. Billyboy

[brecki]

Re: Binchy's Lays Hi Billyboy, already sent !!! Cheers

[billyboy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Cheers, Brecki - I'll spend the evening looking at it all. Thanks very much! Billyboy

[bodmin]

Re: Binchy's Lays Hi, Brecki, I would be most greatfull if you could send me your spreadsheet to [email protected]. many thanks

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays System 1 : No Selections System 2 : [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=width: 86]Date[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Time[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Course[/TD] [TD=width: 143]Horse[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Price[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Lay[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Liability[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 86]26/11/14[/TD] [TD=width: 86]04:45:00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]Kem (AW)[/TD] [TD=width: 143]Archies Advice[/TD] [TD=width: 86]4.6[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£10.00[/TD] [TD=width: 86]£36.00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Binchy]

Re: Binchy's Lays I remember why I stopped now.

[anaconda69]

Re: Binchy's Lays Only way is up ;-) Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum

[brecki]

Re: Binchy's Lays again SP was under 4.00 !!!

[billyboy]

Re: Binchy's Lays Your spreadsheet makes for very interesting reading, Brecki. There are other angles that can be checked such as number of runners and maximum prices, types of race etc. Trouble is I'm out of the country at the moment and only have limited internet access. I'll be back 2nd week in Dec and will be able to do further research. Thanks to you and Binchy for your hard work on this.

[brecki]

Re: Binchy's Lays be aware that "number of runners" is NOT the number of horses that really ran. It is the number of horses that were named to be part of the race, so non-runners reduced the field.

[gbettle]

Re: Binchy's Lays Thanks Brecki again for the spreadsheet. I've replied with an added tab, where I've done some stats. They include:

• ROI 11.67% to £50 liability
• 308 Winning Lays, 59 Losing Lays
• 292.27 Expected Winning Lays, 74.73 Expected Losing Lays
• 1.05 A/E
• Chi 95.86%

I also added some columns, including the number of participants in the race. "Ran" is the column name. I did a breakdown by course, but I'm not sure of the Impact Value for such a small sample. In fact, I'm not sure if my method for Impact Value is correct. Anyone care to correct me? i.e. 367 Bets and 3943 ran. 30 Lays were at Wolverhampton and 26 of those were winning lays. So, I make the Wolverhampton's Impact Value = (26/367)/(367/3943) or 0.761146048 Is that correct? Cheers, Garry

[gbettle]

Re: Binchy's Lays Correction. The IV should be (Winners/Candidates)/(Selections/Ran). (26/367)/(30/3943) = 9.31135332