Bundesliga > March 21st - 23rd

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 21 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen (19:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.36[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.64 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 22 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]1. FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München (14:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.18 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]FC Schalke 04 v Eintracht Braunschweig (14:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.44[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]98.54 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Hannover 96 v Borussia Dortmund (14:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.27 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV (14:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.16[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]VfL Wolfsburg v FC Augsburg (14:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.91 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hertha BSC (17:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.65 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Sunday 23 March 2014[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]1. FC Nürnberg v Eintracht Frankfurt (14:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.00 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1899 Hoffenheim (16:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.88[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.92 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Frazer]

Re: Bundesliga > March 21st - 23rd Freiburg-Bremen Bet: Bremen + 0.25 @ 2.03 (Pinnacle) (4/10) I really can't understand how Freiburg can be such high favorite here. They are playing horrible after winter break with the only expection being the 3-2 against Leverkusen and the 2-4 against Augsburg in which they were not as bad as the result says. Their main problem is the offense. Here they are having big problems creating chances. Now you can look at the last results, see the 4-1 against Frankfurt and tell me that is not true, but it is. Offensively they are showing almost no danger at all (Could be seen quite well against Hertha and Dortmund. Both matches in which they had the possibilitys for attacks). However against Frankfurt they were the clearly worse team getting dominated completely by Frankfurt. Frankfurt opened up way too much though and Freiburg could score with fast counter attacks. In 3 out of their 4 goals here the striker was completely alone against the goalkeeper having it really easy as Frankfurt's defense was even in Freiburg's side. Bremen on the other side is playing a very risky but working playstyle. They let their opponent play and then try to score with very few but effective attacks. That this method is working you could already see against Nurnberg or Stuttgart. Both matches in which they were not the better team but the smarter one. And I can't see Freiburg having it easy to score against this defense of Bremen and with even winning when the result is a draw this odds are a gift. Only important injury for Bremen here is Garcia who already had to be replaced in the past two matches. Freiburg on the other side will be without Höfler, Pilar, Fernandes (suspended), Hanke and Freis. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Mainz-Bayern München Bet: Bayern München -1,5 @ 1.83 (Pinnacle) (7/10) I expect this odds for the -1.75 line or even the -2 line. Bayern has been dominating their opponents without real problems this season and especially after the winter break. Even against Leverkusen they could rest Lahm, Alaba, Martinez, Ribery, Thiago and Dante. They still were completely dominating just with a few mistakes in their defense which was a result of the completely new defensive line up. Now against Mainz they have no reason to rest any player at all and I expect their strongest line up. They want to be Bundesliga champion as soon as possible and when Schalke and Dortmund don't win this matchday they can already become this this matchday. The players are motivated to win and once Bayern players are motivated you can expect a good amount of goals being scored. After the winter break they covered the -1.5 HC line 7 out of 9 times (except for the close match against Stuttgart and the very late 1-2 against Leverkusen). Mainz on the other side with good games after the winter break winning 5 games, drawing two and just loosing one game. However for this odds against Bayern I have to take the HC line. Bayern once again has their full squad avaible against Mainz, except for Thiago and Badstuber, while Mainz will miss long term injured Baumgartlinger and Choupo Moting being in doubt. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Schalke-Braunschweig Bet: Schalke -1.25 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) (3/10) Odds drifted a lot here. Starting line for this odds was the -1.5 AHC line but due to Höwedes being injured and Farfan missing this match once again the odds drifted. Schalke will play once again with Obasi and Draxler as wingers, Meyer on the 10 and Papadopolus in defense. Schalke's big problem is their defense (Could be seen against Real, Bayern and Augsburg) but once they are playing at home they can make the game and control it. This is exactly when Schalke can concentrate on their attacking gamestyle and barely let their opponent out of their side of the field. In addition Braunschweig is one of the worst attacking teams in league (quality and gameplay wise). So Schalke's biggest problem won't be a that big one in this game. Braunschweig is coming with will power like in all games but that this is not enough could be seen in a lot of games this season. And even though they draw against Wolfsburg (who played REALLY bad in 2nd half) and Braunschweig having drawn their last 3 matches I don't see them getting a point here against Schalke. As long as Schalke can make their normal home game (Which is very likely against Braunschweig) they should win this match and for this odds this HC line does have value. The odd movement was a mistake of the market in my opinion. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Hannover-Dortmund Bet: Dortmund -1AHC @ 2.17 (Pinnacle) (7/10) Once again I already planed this match before the odd movement and with the odds moving into Dortmund's direction this bet gets even more value. Hannover had a 3-0 win in the last match against Hertha which was not surprising for me due to Hertha not being able to play their gamestyle at all at home against a deep defending team. However before this match Hannover draw against Leverkusen and Augsburg (both quite equal matches) and lost against Bayern, Schalke and Mainz (each game with at least 2 goals differenc). Dortmund is not having it easy right now with: Schmelzer, Bender, Kuba, Subotic, and Gündogan being injured. But they are still quality wise one level above Hannover who is also having a tougher time playing at home with their new playstyle and their new coach. Dortmund will have enough place against Hannover in attack to be able to show their gamestyle. Reus is still questionale for this match but is more likely to return to squad than to miss again. Hannover is missing their best striker with Diouf which takes a lot of their offensive danger and him being replaced by Schlaudraff who hasn't really shown any good games this season is a big quality drop. Next to Diouf they will miss Andreasen in this match. ------------------------------------------------------------- Gladbach-Hertha Bet: Hertha +0.5 @ 1.9 (Pinnacle) (3/10) This are moments I can't understand the market. Hertha is playing away way better than at home due to their kind of playstyle (fast attacks being created with very good key passes against high standing opponents). And here against Gladbach you can already be sure that this playstyle will work. Gladbach has just won one games after winter break and showed partly terrible performance, weak defense as well as missing creativity. And even though they won the last match against Dortmund with 2-1 they can't be this high rated this quickly again. Their problems surely weren't solved this fast and as their problems are perfectly fitting for Hertha's gamestyle this odds are completely wrong. Cigerci, Lustenberger, Ndjeng and Ben-Haitira are all returning to Hertha's squad while Gladbach might miss Kramer and Daems as well as Nordtveit being suspended and Wendt still being injured. This would give them huge problems in the defensive middlefield and on the left defend side. It is not likely that Lustenberger or Cigerci will already be in starting line up against Gladbach but Ronny has shown in the last match that he has also the abilitys to play the needed key passes and against Gladbach's playstyle and Gladbach being forced to finally win their next game after winter break I see good chances for Hertha here. Surely better chances than the odds say. ------------------------------------------------------------- Bayer Leverkusen-Hoffenheim Bet: Over 3.25 @ 2 (Pinnacle) (8/10) Pretty much a bet you can make on every Hoffenheim game so I'm making the analysis short: Hoffenheim has a brilliant offense but the worst defense in league (tactical wise). And as the coach knows this the team is completely concentrating on scoring a lot of goals and not even trying to concentrate on defense. Leverkusen on the other side with terrible defense mistakes after the winter break and just two wins and one draw after the winter break. They know that Hoffenheim's defense is very weak and that they should have good chances to score against Hoffenheim. So Leverkusen will be completely offensive minded forcing their 2nd win after winter break. Leverkusen will miss Hegeler and Kruse (both long term injured) and Reinartz is in doubt. Hoffenheim in defense still without Abraham but with no other injuries. So all in all Leverkusen's fast wingers and their absolute need to force a win here against Hoffenheim who completely concentrates on attacking and doesn't even try to cover their weak defense game will result in a good amount of goals. For this odds on this line definitely value.

[KavkaZ]

Re: Bundesliga > March 21st - 23rd Freiburg vs Werder Bremen The game will judge the most rigorous German referee Weiner - 10 Games, 52 Yellow Cards , 29 hosts , guests 23 cards. Of the 10 games guest team 3 times won by the number of Yellow Cards. Statistics not impressive. But the prediction is based on the number of YC guests of Bremen. So I'll just leave this here : 1. Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1 (-) 2. Borussia Dortmund 0-0 (=) 3. Borussia Monchengladbach 0-3 (-) 4. Hamburg 4-2 (+) 5. Stuttgart 2-1 (+) 6. Wolfsburg 2-1 (+) 7. Shalke 04 4-2 (+) 8. Hoffenhaym 5-2 (+) 9. Hertha Berlin 2-1 (+) 10. Augsburg 3-1 (+) 11. Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 (+) 12. Nuremberg 4-3 (+) Of the 12 games as guest the "musicians" 9 times won. Of the 12 home games of Freiburg 5 times they got smaller YC than the guest team and one time equally. Also not the most impressive statistics , but not the worst. Overall Werder team rougher than Freiburg. The musicians 55 for the season, the hosts 44. Visiting Bremen 30 warnings, Freiburg at home 21 cards. In general I think that Bremen should receive more cards than Freiburg players. 1) Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Direct Red = 2 YC) at 1.91 Bet365 2) 1-x-2 Cards Winner, Pick 2 (Werder Bremen) at 2.05 Marathonbet

[t0mson]

Re: Bundesliga > March 21st - 23rd Today Leverkusen is huge bet for me. Leverkusen results not reflected their form. I saw last games and have to say that they were unlucky. Against Bayern played very well, against Hannover to. Their game against Psg was very good to. Atmosphere in team is good despite current results. Coach said that games looked good but results are other problem. Today everything should back on good way .Away side is typical team which love attack but not worry about defence. Its clash between two different side with different targets. Hoffe played against Schalke and lose 4/0. Odds on S04 was around 1,9 now we have 1,85 on better team-leverkusen. Odd are to high, should be typical 1,55 and 2,00 -1. Maybe long streak without win affected that we had 1,85. Now little drop. Bayer -0,5@1,85 (now 1,76) Bayer -1@2,32 (now 2,30)