rugby in play algorithm for odds compiling

[paparainbow]

Hi, should someone build an algorithm that calculates odds for rugby (lets say union), what would be the best way to approach it? Do you think that pythagorean expectation is a good approach. I use it, but I have a significant deviation from bookies in my odds. Is there any distribution method u think that would give a better approach. The scoring system may be the reason I default, that the minimum score is 3 and not 1, like in football,basketball, handball and other time based sports.

[Marazan]

Re: rugby in play algorithm for odds compiling I have noticed (or at least back in 2011 when I did some data collection on it) that there tends to be an over-reaction to tries being scored in close games, the market will shorten "too far" and then bounce back a few hundreths at least all within a minute or so. Someone with a High Speed trading algo and a good model of price-over-time could probably profit off that alone.

[paparainbow]

Re: rugby in play algorithm for odds compiling

I have noticed (or at least back in 2011 when I did some data collection on it) that there tends to be an over-reaction to tries being scored in close games' date=' the market will shorten "too far" and then bounce back a few hundreths at least all within a minute or so. Someone with a High Speed trading algo and a good model of price-over-time could probably profit off that alone.[/quote'] do you think that there is a connection in their algorithm input between habdicap/expactancy + tries? lets say 1 try for every 12 points, thats is u/o 36,6 each of too generates under/over 3,5 tries ? this is a simplified logistic though, but I cant believe that tries are a separate input in such an algorithm. Any ideas? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[paparainbow]

Re: rugby in play algorithm for odds compiling do you think using markov chains would do it? assuming you know probabilities for try, drop goa, penalty etc. for each team