Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle

[Aidymac]

:ok

[beaker1]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICE HURDLE TRENDS 2014 - [ thanks to r/caller for use of these trends ] The Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2M 5F and is generally chosen for novice hurdlers with more stamina than those who go for the Supreme Novices’. As with every other year there are plenty of horses with dual entries making ante post betting in this race a treacherous proposition. Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 5 or 6 - NH bred (or won class 1 race on the flat). - French or Irish bred gelding - Posted an RPR of 145+ last time - Run in 3 to 6 hurdles this season (winning at least 2) - Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs this season - Finished in the first 2 in a grade 1 or 2 - Won a hurdles race over 2M 4F or further - Won the Navan, Slaney and/or Leamington Novice Hurdle - Finished in first 3 in Classic and/or Winter Novices’ Hurdle - From the first 5 in the betting (8/1 or shorter) - Trained in Ireland (especially by Willie Mullins) or by Nigel Twiston-Davies.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle My take on things: Faugheen looks opposable to me. I havent really been that impressed with his last two runs despite winning with some ease and he hasnt jumped very well at all, certainly not what you would expect for a potential winner of this race. On his last start he was actually losing ground at his hurdles. The form isnt that strong either and at 3/1 or less he certainly isnt the horse for me. Red Sherlock is the biggest hope for the home team according to the betting and whilst I cant knock the horse, he doesnt stand out to me either. He definitely grinds out his wins and I would expect him to be there or thereabouts but he just doesnt have that touch of class I want to see. He beat a decent yard stick in Rathvinden LTO but I think there are a few reasons for that form to be overturned which I will lead to shortly. He had a hard race that day too and that must be a negative. Royal Boy is another grinder. He does have a touch of pace about him as well, and like Red Sherlock I dont expect him to be far away but I do think he will fail to be good enough at this level. I also have doubts about how much he wants good ground and his sire stats back that up. If it rains and it stays soft or worse then I do think that brings him into play. I dont see enough to back him at this stage though. Rathvinden could be an interesting player. He has been backed this week already (which is unsurprising given the original price discrepency with RS) but I do get the impression that he is a horse that will prefer better ground. Looking at his older form on soft or better, he definitely shows a real turn of foot. He looked like he was in the process of showing his high cruising speed and change of gear before falling at Warwick in what I think will turn out to be a very good race. Im not saying he would have won, because I get the feeling he might have just faded towards the end but I do think he would have been bang there next to Deputy Dan. Against RS at Cheltenham he ran another big race, giving him 3lb and only getting run out of it at the end. On level weights and on better ground I am very confident Rathvinden could turn that form around and its just a case of whether that race would have left its mark. Un Temps Pour Tout is an odd one and a horse I cant work out very well. He was ok at Haydock over a shorter than ideal trip before winning with ease in a modest race at Ascot. He looks like he might have a change of gear over this trip but its hard to tell based on the evidence I can watch and therefore he cant be backed. Ballyalton is a horse I thought would do well in this earlier in the year. He beat a couple of horses at Newcastle that have done alright since and at the time the 2nd at Cheltenham (over 17f) looked decent as well. He travelled nicely over this trip behind Aubusson bought found very little and it looked like a combination of the ground/trip/hill that found him out. I do think he could get involved but it would have to be on genuine good ground and I dont think we will get that by next Weds! He also doesnt come out well on the stats for this race. Lieutenant Colonel is a potential surprise package IMO. He has only raced over 16f so far so the trip has to be taken on trust but Im confident Dessie Hughes wouldnt run him if he wasnt 100% sure he would stay. He has raced against two of the likely players in the Supreme where he did look outpaced (especially against Vautour) but stayed on nicely at the finish. He travels well, he looks as though he will have a good change of gear over this trip and his jumping is a real asset. I dont think the ground will make any difference to him and if you can trust that he stays then he must have a great chance of placing at the very least. Sure Reef is another Mullins horse. I fancied him to win his last start but I wasnt quite expecting the manner in which he did it (from last to first). He beat solid horses but nothing more IMO and while I think he is a game horse that wont give up, I dont think he quite has the quality to be a main protagonist in this. I could quite easily see him chasing the first 3 or 4 up the hill and if any of them crack up the hill he might sneak a place. The last horse I have looked at tonight is Deputy Dan and if he goes to this race (betfair market doesnt fill me with confidence) then he must also have a very good chance. I think it would have been a real good tussle between him and Rathvinden at Warwick and DD couldnt have won with more authority the time before that at Chepstow on bad ground. He also ran a cracker behind Champagne West who looked like a class horse as well in that race (won his next two starts) and they both came home miles clear of the remainder. Deputy Dan does have a habit of fluffing the last a little which would worry me if he turns up but I do think he has the engine and that little bit of quality to make his mark if he gets his chance. 1. Rathvinden 8/1 2. Lieutenant Colonel 16/1 3. Deputy Dan 16/1 (but higher or Betfair)

[benreado]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Cup Final is currently 50/1 with multiple firms and I'd suggest that's a good each way price. McCoy confirmed in yesterday's preview he's riding and I can't remember many JP horses with Henderson training and the champ on board go off at that price! His run behind Iriving last time gives him a lot to find on ratings, but I think it was an eye catching run at a track and trip that wouldn't have suited the horse 1 bit. Henderson said last night the horse has come on no end since that run and needed it very badly. I think he'll be much shorter on the day for sure and wouldn't put anyone off backing it at such a big price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Faugheen has a serious engine I'd imagine but he's not exactly fluent at his hurdles. That's a concern for me and it's hard to know if he'll be able to find enough on the flat to compensate. It wouldn't surprise me if he bolted up but it's got to be a bit of a worry in such a big race at a short price. Tricky one.

[Toast]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Creepy 66/1 ew at Ladbrokes. Yet again I make a rare venture into novice terroritory. Yet again, I will be ignoring the trends, as I honestly believe this year, they will go out of the window. Most if not all have shown their best form on bottomless winter ground, tomorrow is the exact opposite, ergo, the form book goes out of the window and only those with good ground form will be considered, especially Creepy. First thing to notice is the price which is far too big for a grade 2 course winner. He would be a third of the price if he came from one of the top yards. The ground has now come right for him. Totally useless on soft or heavy! But on gd/sf and faster, his form reads 422121! His course form reads 442215, the 5th came on heavy ground, a 4th came on soft, with the other 4th being over 17f. Gets 3 miles easily. Will be staying on very well when the others have ride enough, is fitted with 1st time headgear And has the same sire as today's un fancied Arkle winner.

[Aidymac]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle(Baring Bingham) (Grade 1) (1) 2m5f Faugheen deserves a lot of respect here but if I am backing a favourite at Cheltenham it has to tick all the boxes and this fella doesn't as there are still a lot of unknowns surrounding him. The David Pipe yard are in red hot form at the moment and Red Sherlock comes here with a big reputation. He has already won here at Cheltenham twice before and course form here is a big weapon to have. Royal Boy is the chosen ride for Barry Geraghty and he is another that must have a chance after an impressive win last time out. I have gone for yet another outsider here though and I think Killala Quay will outrun his big odds for a strong yard with a good jockey on board. Killala Quay - 1 Point each-way @ 33/1 Bet365 Read Full Preview @ http://www.horse-racing.org/neptune-hurdle-betting-killala-quay-should-appreciate-the-cheltenham-hill

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Toast I'm really glad you picked that out, as I thought i must have been going off my head that I was thinking of it. It's hard to really build on your pretty thorough justification for the horse and would really just be echoing an inferior version of your analysis. I have grave doubts over whether he has the class, hence i've joined the Red Sherlock club too, however i'd point out that in the 4 miler on Tuesday, Merlin's Wish was travelling very well in the race before falling. It's an incredibly bold claim that the stable has form on the basis of less than half a race, but it's a small yard and in such cases I tend to think if one is, they all likely can be. If not a winner or a runner up, he's if nothing else over-priced.

[smith17]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle 1.30 Cheltenham: Red Sherlock, 9/2 >Boylesports, win Red Sherlock is unbeaten in six runs. He won a Grade 2 over c&d lto, beating the re-opposing Rathvinden by 2½L. He is three pounds worse off but I expect him to reverse that form. Bar one or two small mistakes his jumping has been superb in his three hurdles races. He won a Listed NHF race on this course back in November. The ground will suit. Trainer David Pipe had the winner of the Arkle yesterday while his other horses all ran well here yesterday. Tom Scudamore, who has ridden this horse to victory twice, is in the saddle.

[Binchy]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Based on Trends, I have had reverse 2pt (12pts total) Trifecta on Faugheen, Red Sherlock and Rathvinden as I cannot split them. Also 1pt e/w on Creepy at 50/1, price way too big.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Fair play to Faugheen as that was an excellent performance and I get the impression the race will probably work out quite well. Rathvinden stayed on for 3rd although he was a little unlucky after giving his stablemate the run and then getting slightly hampered. The Channel 4 replays are fecking awful so I dont know where Lieutenant Colonel finished but he ran well for a very long way and probably didnt quite stay under such a quick pace. Well done to anyone who collected!

[Toast]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle That was impressive by the winner, nothing would have got close. Creepy was bloody awful, not impressed with the ride at all.

[Aidymac]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Killala Quay 4th! :cry

[trips]

Re: Wednesday 1:30 > Neptune Investment Hurdle Took advantage of the loser free bet on Red Sherlock. no excuses best horse won very easy. what a jockey Ruby is though,absolutely ruthless again, kicked on going round the final bend instead of when they all straighten up and left them for dead, seen it so many times best horse run out of it on the run in when they could have been clear, doesn't happen with Ruby.