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Torque's English League Picks


Torque

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I've developed a rating system for the Premier League which I've been running for the last few weeks with some success, and so I thought I would start to post selections and see if it holds its own between now and the end of the season, by which time I should be able to draw some meaningful conclusions about how well the system works. What I'm looking for is teams whose form my system suggests is better than their results, and if a team fits this criteria then I will lay their opposition using Betfair. This will be a high turnover system, and my approach is underpinned by an assumption that not every lay will represent value - this is because I think it's very hard to accurately model football matches due to the high number of variables. The idea is for more of the lays to be value than not, and in this way a profit will hopefully be achieved. In my opinion, more or less, most of the relevant information about a match is incorporated into the prices set by the bookmakers and so my edge, if I have one, will come from factors outside of those taken into consideration when they set their lines. I'll be laying to a fixed stake of one unit, meaning that the profit from each winning pick will be the same but the liability will change depending on the price. Generally I will post new picks and settle old ones the night before matches will be played, so I'll look at Sunday's games tomorrow. Hopefully that's everything covered, and I'll post tomorrow's matches next.

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