National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day

[Aidymac]

Wetherby 1:45 - William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Sue Smith has two runners in this contest but at the prices I feel Auroras Encore is certainly worth an each-way bet at 25/1 with Coral. The slight worry is whether they will have the horse fit and well here as they will have their minds set on the Grand National in April but I am sure they would like to see the horse have a big run before then. With the yard in such good form at the moment he is worth a small each-way bet in a winnable race. Auroras Encore - 1 Point each-way @ 25/1 Coral Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/rowland-meyrick-chase-betting-grand-national-winner-auroras-encore-can-put-in-a-bold-show

[beaker1]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day 12:50 Kempton – William Hill – In The App Store Novices’ Hurdle DUBAI PRINCE was very classy on the flat (rated 116 at his peak) and really impressed on his debut over hurdles at Leicester. He jumped and travelled very well that day and has clearly taken to hurdles. A horse of that quality from the flat that takes to hurdles should not be opposed lightly and he is one to follow for the rest of the season and I certainly expect him to win this. 2:00 Kempton – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase JUST A PAR jumped really well on his chase debut, but needed the run. He showed the benefit of that run on his next start when easily beating Third Intention at Newbury. He again jumped well and he looks a staying chaser of some potential. He will be seven pounds worse off with Third Intention in this, but I expect the result to be the same. 2:35 Kempton – williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle This is one of my favourite races of the year and this year we are in for a fascinating clash between the two up and coming stars of British hurdling. The New One has looked awesome this season, easily beating two of the top hurdlers in the country in Rock on Ruby and Zarkandar. He is a class act and will obviously be hard to beat, but I feel this could turn out to be a tactical battle and Sam Twiston-Davies has already admitted how scared he was before winning last time out, so a tactical battle against A.P.McCoy is a concern. It is also a concern that he is out so soon after that run at Cheltenham, as even though he won well, he did have to battle against Zarkandar, who is a fighter and it is worth remembering that he met with his first defeat over hurdles when running just two weeks after his last run. MY TENT OR YOURS travels and jumps well and will be a serious test for the favourite. This track should really play to his strengths and I can see McCoy winning the tactical battle and kicking for home at exactly the right time. It could be close, but I think My Tent Or Yours is the most likely winner. 2:55 Leopardstown – Racing Post Novice Chase CHAMPAGNE FEVER really impressed on his chase debut and should be hard to beat. He was a classy hurdler and has always shown a great attitude. He has Grade One winning form at Leopardstown and handles testing ground well. Willie Mullins has always stated that he is expected to do better over fences than over hurdles, so he should be up to this test. I am interested in Road To Riches for the forecast. I believe he has a lot of pace and jumped superbly last time out. He will also love the testing conditions and I can see him going from the front and getting most of his opponents in trouble. His trainer, Noel Meade is in excellent form at present and it would not surprise me if Road To Riches was to go close. He looks the one for betting without the favourite and the straight forecast of Champagne Fever to win and Road To Riches to come second could pay a decent price. 3:10 Kempton – William Hill King George VI Chase There may be only nine horses declared, but this looks a cracking renewal of the race. Cue Card has been a warm order since his impressive win at Haydock. He is a hugely talented horse and I can see why he is favourite, but I am keen to take him on. Firstly, I think he is slightly better going left-handed, secondly, he had a bad experience in this race last year, thirdly, his yard is out of form and finally, he had the run of the race at Haydock and I can see him being taken on in this, so at odds of 3/1, he looks poor value. Dynaste is the second favourite and again I am keen to take him on. He is a second season chaser and they have a poor record in this. I am also concerned that he may not see the race out, as I expect there to be a good pace and he may fade close home. The one I am keen on is SILVINIACO CONTI. He is very classy and usually jumps really well. I feel this race will be run to suit and can see him travelling strongly just off the pace and making his stamina tell by kicking for home some way out. He travelled supremely well behind Cue Card last time out, but needed the run, blowing up, before running on again. He also ran wide at Haydock, so covered more ground than his opponent, so can be fancied to finish much closer here and I expect him to beat Cue Card.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day Kempton 3.10 - Cue Card 10/3 Corals & Menorah 25/1 EW BetVictor This race revolves around how bad the ground really is going to be come the day. I really dislike the lack of consistency between ground definitions, especially when it comes to soft ground as it seems to change from track to track and meeting to meeting but that's for another thread. Quite simply, if the ground is riding anywhere near the better side of soft then I think both of these have a decent chance. Cue Card is a bit of an obvious one and I dont really see why Dynaste is being backed to reverse the form. CC may have had a run prior to the Betfair Chase but I really doubt that Pipe would not have had Dynaste as fit as he could for that race. Kempton is even more or a speed track that Haydock was on that day which will suit CC even more. Silvianaco Conti looked as though he may have needed it a little so he could be a possible rival to reverse that form but on the whole I rate CC as a better horse and as long as the ground doesnt make turn it into a slog, I dont see any reason why he wont run well. Menorah could be a bit of a dark horse. He has good form from the end of last season which wouldn't see him too far off a mark of 170 in my book and proving his stamina (on good ground) over 25f at Aintree and beating Silvianaco Conti in the process. I don't doubt that the ground will favour that rival more on Boxing Day but Menorah is no mug on soft ground and he has a cracking record around this track (3 from 3 including heavy win last year). The Hobbs team are in fine fettle at the moment and I dont for one second expect that he will be short of fitness and I am also sure he will have been extensively schooled too. It will be a tough ask for this horse to win but I do fancy him to outrun his odds depending on how much rain we get before the big day.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day Kempton 3.45 - Twelve Roses 4/1 Corals & Billy Twyford 20/1 Bet365 Twelve Roses looks a very solid bet. Second to the rapidly progressive More Of That two runs ago over this trip, he looked sure to go one better over further at Newbury on his last run as he tanked his way through the race only see his stamina disappear in the last couple of furlongs. The form of that race itself has worked out pretty nicely (3rd, 5th & 7th have showed solid form since) and even his modest novice form would give him a shout around this mark. I think this one is also a very progressive horse and I expect him to run a big race with conditions looking to suit him perfectly. Billy Twyford requires a little bit more faith but that is reflected in the price. He too looked a horse going places last season winning a decent handicap at Wetherby (2nd won G3 off 128) where he stayed on really strongly at the finish (form worked out well) before following that up with a decent victory over a furlong shorter at Fontwell. Not too much has come out of that race but the gambled on 3rd has won and placed since. He ran poorly on his last start last season (still 3rd though) and he also wasnt much better on his seasonal reappearance but he looked as though he may have needed that having run well for a long way so if that run does bring him on and back to something like his best form he should have a good chance at a very generous price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day Wetherby 1.45 - Nuts N Bolts 5/1 Bet365 There are a couple of progressive types in this race but having backed him LTO I am going to stick with this one again on Thursday. There are a few that would ideally prefer a slightly longer trip and this one is no different but having won over 20f at a sharp track like Ayr last season, he is probably going to have just that little bit extra speed which could make the difference. He ran a good race at the Festival behind Golden Chieftain especially after being on the back foot early when making a mistake at the first. His first run of the season looked very promising, especially as he beat another horse in Red Rocco that I also believe is going to end up being well handicapped. He has been raised 9lb for that win but I dont think it will be enough to stop him putting up a bold show. The more rain the better for this one.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day Wetherby 2.55 - Shadows Lengthen 12/1 Corals I thought this horse had a decent enough chance at Cheltenham LTO as I thought his previous hurdles run would have put him spot on but after being stuck out the rear of the field he never looked dangerous. Having looked though his form a little closer it may have just been a case of the combination of quick ground over 16f in that company being a little too sharp for him and being stepped up in trip on softer ground may just see the horse in a better light on Thursday. His last 4 runs of last season were all full of promise. He comfortably beat the mildly progressive Granville Island comfortably on heavy (16f) before unseating his rider at the last when closing on No Planning (also progressive & rated 130's - 17f soft). He then went to Haydock (16f g/s) and struggled to make too much of an impact in a much sharper race (only 3 runners, winner made all at steady pace and placed since) before stuffing the progressive Kruzhlinen on good (won 2 since & rated 138 - Peckhamecho fell at the last just as the selection was starting to go past - that horse has not run over fences since). He came home really strongly that day and I wouldn't be surprised if he does the same thing on Boxing Day providing he is in the same form.

[Aidymac]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day Kempton 3:10 - William Hill King George Vi Chase (Grade 1) In summary, I think this is a very open contest and I would not advise a large bet on it but I have gone for a tentative win bet on Long Run who is a much better horse than what we have seen so far this season. He is still only an 8 year old and he simply cannot have lost so much ability in such a short space of time. Kempton is a place he thrives in and lets not forget this is a former Gold Cup winner in the hands of a master trainer. Long Run - 1 Point WIN @ 10/1 >Bet365 Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/king-george-vi-chase-betting-long-run-can-get-back-on-track-on-a-course-he-loves

[Alienated In The UK]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Dec - Boxing Day I have to disagree with you about being an open race and heres why. Never posted these before but here goes, my two penneth worth > Kempton 3:10 King George Chase (Grade 1) Despite the odds appearing to suggest one of the most open king georges for many a year I can whittle this down to 2 very easily. Dynaste and Silvinacio Conti, who at 100/30 and 9/2 respectively appear to be a dutch made in heaven. Both ran crackers at Haydock behind Cue Card, who although was impressive, he was aimed at that race, was given a soft lead, and was raring to go. The other 2 though where ridden for another day, especialy Silvinacio whos trainer Nicholls knows all to well how long the season is. This has been Dynastes target for quite some time, rumoured to be aimed at this race after years Novice win on the same card. Cue Card will be against fitter rivals this time, much fitter in Silvinios case, and he 100% wont get a soft lead, this race is always run hell for leather from the start, which is why Long Runs stamina has won him this in the past. Long Run isnt getting any better, and Dynaste won last years novice easily in a 3 second quicker time that a flat out Long Run, Dynaste is improving, still has huge potential over the bigger obstacles, and was only inferior to the best staying hurlder of all time in Big Bucks over the smaller obstacles, he has an immense engine, travels well, jumps well, loves the track, will love the easy ground, and is certain to run very well, I dont see how he cant be in the shake up and will probably win. If they go gung ho, which I expect, Silvinacio Contis stamina will come into play, from a trainer whos won this before and with huge improvement expected from Haydock, he`ll also go very close, though I fear he`ll be able to deal with a peak form Dynaste over this trip and track. Al Ferof is the only real threat and he`s a dubious stayer over 3miles in easy ground, given the fast pace, he`ll have to be another One Man, and lightning doesnt strike twice. Long run needs a monsoon to compete with the mentioned horses and the rest are no hopers. Dynaste WIN @ 100/30 Silvinacio Conti WIN @ 9/2

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Dec - Boxing Day If it is not an open race, why back 2 horses? Have you ruled Cue Card out? Kempton is not a stayers track, more of a speed track, the Paddy Power over 2m 5f at Cheltenham is as tough a race stamina wise in comparison and Al Ferof bolted up in that so I think he will have no problems staying tomorrow. I never said Long Run is the most likely winner, because if you back the most likely winner all the time you will lose your wallet. My bet on Long Run is completely price orientated, is no 10/1 shot on my tissue. Only Kauto Star has beat him at Kempton in his entire career to date, he isn't the horse he was for whatever reason this year, but you would be very folly to dismiss him. I backed Conti last time out, he faded out like a light bulb when push came to shove which is a worry for him. Mount Benbulben is also far from a no hoper, he won a Grade 1 over 3m 1f by 22 lengths at Punchestown back in April, if he has a clean round of jumping he will be bang there but jumping is his issue at times. Great race in store, good luck. PS. For BBOTD you can only choose 1 horse and cannot use Betfair prices. :welcome

[radelnblueangel]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Dec - Boxing Day

1545 kempton 1pt win twelve roses 4/1 bet365 so many races to choose from,2 cards off already,maybe some more, but as kempton seems to have no issues, i will go there kim baileys 5 year old gelding seems to be on the upgrade,and ran a nice race last time out when he finished 4th in a hurdle race, which could prove to be a good race for future form,the trip might have been a liitle too far for him and a step back in trip may suit, and with the champ on board he must be in with a shout,ap has a 50% strike with the stable,only 2 runs though

Good breed and interesting is the 2nd LTO form over distance ina strong run race vs More of That, when the pair went clear 24 lengths of the third. More of That von a Class 2 and Group 2 after respectively. Strong form pick if handling the ground and Topweight on it, but should do it is quite a big horse. Have that one also as the best bet in Kempton.

[Alienated In The UK]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 26th Dec - Boxing Day

If it is not an open race, why back 2 horses? Have you ruled Cue Card out? Kempton is not a stayers track, more of a speed track, the Paddy Power over 2m 5f at Cheltenham is as tough a race stamina wise in comparison and Al Ferof bolted up in that so I think he will have no problems staying tomorrow. I never said Long Run is the most likely winner, because if you back the most likely winner all the time you will lose your wallet. My bet on Long Run is completely price orientated, is no 10/1 shot on my tissue. Only Kauto Star has beat him at Kempton in his entire career to date, he isn't the horse he was for whatever reason this year, but you would be very folly to dismiss him. I backed Conti last time out, he faded out like a light bulb when push came to shove which is a worry for him. Mount Benbulben is also far from a no hoper, he won a Grade 1 over 3m 1f by 22 lengths at Punchestown back in April, if he has a clean round of jumping he will be bang there but jumping is his issue at times. Great race in store, good luck. PS. For BBOTD you can only choose 1 horse and cannot use Betfair prices. :welcome

Cant have Cue Card, wont get the soft lead, and I dont have him in the 3 at the end, the other 2 behind him at Haydock will be fitter, and will do better at this track also. Al Ferof would be the 1 that scares me, Long Run maybe if it becomes a mudbath, which I doubt. Mount Belbulben is a slow horse, and cant be having it in this class. Regarding Kempton being a fast track, thats a given BUT the king george is always run at a furious pace, its usually testing ground, and you need a stamina filled good jumper, any holes will be found out. I cant see Dynaste not winning, but if its not to be, then I feel Silvinacio will be the beneficiary. Both will be held up off a strong pace, both will go in the ground, get the trip, and it could come down to just how fast they go. The more it becomes a slug, the better chance Silvinacio. Hence id dutch. I didnt want to enter any competition on here, just wanted to post my king george views and couldnt find a thread.

[joeblitz]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day Here are my selections: 12.50 Kempton Vaniteux 5/2 Paddy Power - Henderson going for a hattrick here and ground will suit better than his opponents 2.35 Kempton My Tent Or Yours 6/5 BetFred BOG - 50/50 but the Henderson horse looked more impressive 3.10 Kempton AL Ferof 4/1 Paddy Power BOG - we will see if he is the horse I think he is. Dynaste a big danger 1.20 Towcester My Wigwam Or Yours 11/10 Paddy Power BOG - looks the winner barring accidents 1.55 Towcester Baby Shine 11/10 Coral BOG - wins or falls 12.10 Sedgefield Milo Man 6/5 Coral BOG - should beat the Pipe horse over this shorter trip 12.40 Sedgefield Minella Friend 10/11 Paddy Power BOG - best horse in the race 3.35 Sedgefield Border Breaker 9/4 Paddy Power BOG - ha ha ha 12.30 Down Royal Mullaghnoe River 11/4 Bet365 BOG - 2nd to Sizing Gold lto is miles better than the rest 1.35 Limerick Smashing 11/10 Paddy Power BOG - on his last run will win 12.50 Leopardstown Stuccodore 5/1 Bet365 BOG - has won here and on heavy and is the one to beat 3.30 Leopardstown Windsor Park 3/1 Boylesports BOG - wins on his last run 10 Points win on each 10 Point win Double 2.00 Kempton Just A Par 4/7 2.55 Leopardstown Champagne Fever 1/2 both Boylesports (just under 11/8) - both win bar a fallSorry about the write up but I was nearly finished and lost it and didnt have time to rewrite. 13 Selections including the double. Let's wipe the smile off the faces of the bookies. Good Luck!

[richard-westwood]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day some decent racing on today but small fields .....................for me im having my maximum bet on cue card ..in the king George .......all a question of class really .............all 10 previous winners had won dual gr1 chases prior to winning this ........and only cue card fits the bill ..............nice price taken 4/1 ...........so jus gotta sit back now and see if history repeats itself for 11th time

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: National Hunt Racing > Boxing Day 1.15 Sedgefield - 2pts win Elsafeer @ 9/2 (Hills) Has to put an unseat behind him from last time out but is worth chancing in this fairly weak affair. It is somewhat difficult to assess what talent he holds at present but you can't judge him too much on a run after 16 months, a third to Hinterland and then a failure to complete last time. However, he was very much entitled to come on for the first of those runs and was always going to be outclassed after that. Prior to his absence he went close off 122 over hurdles and won a bumper on soft so hopefully he can handle the ground today and if so, a mark of 118 with 10lbs taken off his back, could see him go very close. 1.25 Kempton - 2pts win Ericht @ 7/2 (Hills) I was very satisfied with this horse's chasing/seasonal debut when clearly going to learn from the experience and will come on for it fitness wise too. He didn't jump as quickly as the eventual winner and was a bit hesitant but ran all the way to the line to finish within a length in second. The pair were miles clear and the winner has won again since. On strict form, Ericht's mark looks fair on the form of that run with the Nicholls' victor having had a fitness edge and also had a previous experience over fences. All in all, I think Henderson's charge will improve for that and if attacking his fences a bit better today, should be going very close indeed. 3.10 Kempton - 2pts win Silviniaco Conti @ 4/1 (Hills) Silviniaco Conti was travelling very well in the Gold Cup back in March and moved ominously well on his seasonal return in the Betfair Chase when backing out into third. The winner did it well but had already had a run in the season and I would not be surprised to see the form reversed here. Of course Dynaste is a threat too as well as Al Ferof but I think the track will suit my selection well and the soft conditions are ideal. He's extremely consistent and I'm not concerned that Noel Fehily is on board. He's a jockey I rate highly and now this horse has fitness back on side, I think he can build on a couple of promising runs and snatch the big prize. 3.45 Kempton - 2pts win Junction Fourteen @ 6/1 (Bet365) This horse got up in the shadows of the post last time but did well to win and the form probably isn't too bad. He needs to improve to land this prize but raced keenly at a steady pace there before staying on strongly after the last to win so I believe that this stiffer test in a bigger field will really suit as they should go a bit quicker for him. A solid gallop under these conditions should bring out the best in him and he's still unexposed. That was only his second run over hurdles (the first came after a summer off) and he was clear with a solid yardstick last time. There's definitely more to come and this mark seems fair enough with this race more likely to suit so long as he doesn't show his inexperience in the jumping stakes.