From Top to Bottom

[Xtc12]

Trying to find a good football system so decided to see if I could make money on the team at the top of the table. Why not bet on them every week and surely money could be made ? In the premiership the top team weekly from season 2008/09 to 2013/14 has a strike rate of 64.86%, 59.45%, 62.16%, 67.56%, 64.86% and 57.14% after 14 games this season. This in turn gives an overall strike rate of 63.31%. Great strike rate but probably bad odds. A flat stake of 1 Pt on all these games gave you a loss of 6.86pts for 199 bets. On seeing this I decided to look at betting against the bottom team. For the same seasons as above surprise surprise the average strike rate was 43.21%. Did not think that the bottom team would be as difficult to beat, avoiding defeat 56.79% of the time. Flat stake betting on these games, that is backing the draw and the bottom team, gave you the following returns: Draw... 199 games gave you a profit of 12.51pts yield 6.28% Win ... 199 games gave you a profit of 18.73pts yield 9.41% Covering both of the above results gave you a yield of 7.84% So laying the bottom teams opponent is the way to go but not too sure how to do this. What we are looking for is the division with the bottom team having a high number of points at the end of the season. I checked all the English, Scottish and top European leagues for the last ten years and got the average amount of points for that period and then got the percentage of average points to games played. English Div 2 came out on top with an average point total of 37.7 out of 135 for 27.7%. Looking at the bottom team here for this season and three other random seasons show strike rates for laying the bottom teams opponent of 57.9%, this season up to last saturday and 68.88%, 57.77% and 51.11%. As stated previously I do not lay any teams so I took the odds for Double Chance on the bottom team and came up with 1%, 15.94%, -18.66%, -28.44% yield respectively. With the above strike rates I tried the staking strategy as my "Short priced fav" thread and it showed the following results 7.35%, 23.58%, 9.11% and 8.51%. This strategy is an IAL type strategy which many people do not like. I still have a lot of work to do on this before I can call it a system as it is very time consuming but I want to carry out the following for the rest of the season and keep the results here; 1. bet on the top team in the premiership using the IAL strategy. 2. back the draw and win for the bottom team in the premiership 3. bet on the bottom team double chance, div 2, using the IAL strategy. I know this is a bit over the top but it might keep me interested in backtesting.

[Xtc12]

Re: From Top to Bottom 1. 3 Pt Win Arsenal v Chelsea @ 2.3 2. 1 Pt Win Sunderland v Norwich @ 2.1 2a 1 Pt Win Draw @ 3.4 3 3 Pts Win Torquay Double Chance v Dagenham @ 1.7