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From Top to Bottom

Xtc12

By Xtc12
in Glory Hunters

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Xtc12

Xtc12

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Trying to find a good football system so decided to see if I could make money on the team at the top of the table. Why not bet on them every week and surely money could be made ? In the premiership the top team weekly from season 2008/09 to 2013/14 has a strike rate of 64.86%, 59.45%, 62.16%, 67.56%, 64.86% and 57.14% after 14 games this season. This in turn gives an overall strike rate of 63.31%. Great strike rate but probably bad odds. A flat stake of 1 Pt on all these games gave you a loss of 6.86pts for 199 bets. On seeing this I decided to look at betting against the bottom team. For the same seasons as above surprise surprise the average strike rate was 43.21%. Did not think that the bottom team would be as difficult to beat, avoiding defeat 56.79% of the time. Flat stake betting on these games, that is backing the draw and the bottom team, gave you the following returns: Draw... 199 games gave you a profit of 12.51pts yield 6.28% Win ... 199 games gave you a profit of 18.73pts yield 9.41% Covering both of the above results gave you a yield of 7.84% So laying the bottom teams opponent is the way to go but not too sure how to do this. What we are looking for is the division with the bottom team having a high number of points at the end of the season. I checked all the English, Scottish and top European leagues for the last ten years and got the average amount of points for that period and then got the percentage of average points to games played. English Div 2 came out on top with an average point total of 37.7 out of 135 for 27.7%. Looking at the bottom team here for this season and three other random seasons show strike rates for laying the bottom teams opponent of 57.9%, this season up to last saturday and 68.88%, 57.77% and 51.11%. As stated previously I do not lay any teams so I took the odds for Double Chance on the bottom team and came up with 1%, 15.94%, -18.66%, -28.44% yield respectively. With the above strike rates I tried the staking strategy as my "Short priced fav" thread and it showed the following results 7.35%, 23.58%, 9.11% and 8.51%. This strategy is an IAL type strategy which many people do not like. I still have a lot of work to do on this before I can call it a system as it is very time consuming but I want to carry out the following for the rest of the season and keep the results here; 1. bet on the top team in the premiership using the IAL strategy. 2. back the draw and win for the bottom team in the premiership 3. bet on the bottom team double chance, div 2, using the IAL strategy. I know this is a bit over the top but it might keep me interested in backtesting.

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Xtc12
Xtc12

Here we go again for a new season will see tomorrow who our first bets will be. Good Luck to everyone !

f0r3st727
f0r3st727

You have written X for bottom and it finished 1-1. Probably just a typo (should've been 2 instead of x, right?)

Xtc12
Xtc12

Returns : 11.20

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Xtc12

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Re: From Top to Bottom

1. 2 Pt Win Man Cv Liverpool @ 4.3 2. 1 Pt Win Everton v Sunderland @ 8.0 ;) 2a 1 Pt Win Draw @ 4.5 3 3 Pts Win Northampton Double Chance v Burton @ 1.90 ;)
Another good day me thinks ! Will update after New Years Day!
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Re: From Top to Bottom

For Saturday 1. 1 Pt Win Newcastle v Arsenal @ 1.90 :) 2. 1 Pt Win Cardiff v Sunderland @ 3.25 2a 1 Pt Win Draw @ 3.25 :) 3 2 Pts Win Northampton Double Chance v Portsmouth @ 1.83 :)
75% Correct - Highest allowed 75% Bet 1 ; Total Bet 6, Wins 1.90 , Loss of 4.10 Bet 2 ; Total Bet 3, Wins 8.0, Profit of 5.0 Bet 2a ; Total Bet 3, Wins 6.65, Profit 3.65 Bet 3 ; Total Bet 8, Wins 8.76, Profit 0.76
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Re: From Top to Bottom

New Years Day 1. 4 Pts Win Arsenal v Cardiff @ 1.22 :) 2. 1 Pt Win Sunderland v A.Villa @ 2.10 2a. 1 Pt Win draw @ 3.25 3. 1 Pt Win Northampton Double Chance v Chesterfield @ 1.83 POST
Arsenal returns 4.88 Bet 1; Total Bet 10, Total Won 6.78, Loss of 3.22
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leony

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Re: From Top to Bottom Hi Xtc12 Aren't we all chasing our losses :-) What are your main concerns about laying the bets? I have been laying bets - chasing my losses using a lay ladder for several years now. Maybe I can be of some assistance.

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Re: From Top to Bottom Hi Leony, my main concern would be that I have never dabbled on the exchange so not too sure how it works. So if I lay Northampton for £20 as in Post 8, what would I have won or if it was a loser what would I have lost.

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leony

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Re: From Top to Bottom

Hi Leony' date=' my main concern would be that I have never dabbled on the exchange so not too sure how it works. So if I lay Northampton for £20 as in Post 8, what would I have won or if it was a loser what would I have lost.[/quote'] If you lay a bet you're betting that the event will not happen. Northampton v Portsmouth 1 = 1,50 X = 3,80 2 = 6,65 If you lay Portsmouth here at 6,65 for a stake of 10 quid, you're going to win 10 quid (minus 5% commision if your exchange is Betfair) if Northampton wins or it ends in a draw. If Portsmouth wins you're going to lose (odds-1*your stake) = 6,65-1*10 = 50,65 If you use a lay ladder and the Martingale approach your next lay would be at an 73,50 stake - to claw back your loss + the 10 quid of profit. I found this link that explains it rather well (there are probably many other similar sites): http://www.livetipsportal.com/en/back-lay/ If you lay or do the double chance doesn't matter because the result is the same. So stick with the one you are most comfortable with. Best of luck on your future bets.
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Re: From Top to Bottom No access to computer all week until late today. Selections come automatically anyhow, so they would have been: 1. 5 Pts Win Arsenal v A.Villa @ 1.57 2. 1 Pt Win Sunderland v Fulham @ 3.6 2a. 1 Pt Win draw @ 3.25 3. 1 Pt Win Northampton Double Chance v York @ 1.83

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Re: From Top to Bottom

No access to computer all week until late today. Selections come automatically anyhow, so they would have been: 1. 5 Pts Win Arsenal v A.Villa @ 1.57 ;) 2. 1 Pt Win Sunderland v Fulham @ 3.6 ;) 2a. 1 Pt Win draw @ 3.25 3. 4 Pt Win Northampton Double Chance v York @ 1.83
1. Profit of 2.73 2. Profit 6.6 2a. Profit 1.65 3 Loss of 2.32
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Re: From Top to Bottom

3. 5 Pt Win Northampton Double Chance v Chesterfield @ 1.83
:( Bet 3 Loss 7.32 1. 3Pts Win Arsenal v Southampton @ 1.95 2. 1 Pt Win Cardiff v Man U @ 12 2a. 1 Pt Win draw @ 6 3. 6 Pt Win Northampton Double Chance v Rochdale @ 1.61
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Re: From Top to Bottom

1. 3Pts Win Arsenal v Southampton @ 1.95 2. 1 Pt Win Cardiff v Man U @ 12 2a. 1 Pt Win draw @ 6 3. 6 Pt Win Northampton Double Chance v Rochdale @ 1.61 POST
Not a thing from the rest. 1. 2 Pts Win Man C v Chelsea @ 1.87 2. 1 Pt Win Cardiff v Norwich @ 2.15 2a. 1 Pt Win Draw @ 3.3 3. 6 Pt Win Northampton ?Double Chance v Cheltenham @ 1.8
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Re: From Top to Bottom

1. 2 Pts Win Man C v Chelsea @ 1.87 2. 1 Pt Win Cardiff v Norwich @ 2.15 :p 2a. 1 Pt Win Draw @ 3.3 3. 6 Pt Win Northampton ?Double Chance v Cheltenham @ 1.8 ;)
Bet 1 - Loss 1.61 Bet 2 - Profit 8.0 Bet 2a - Loss 1.35 Bet 3 - Loss 2.53
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Re: From Top to Bottom

1. 1 Pt Win Arsenal v Liverpool @ 3.4 2. 1 Pt Win Fulham v Man U @ 12.0 2a. 1 Pt Win Draw @ 6.5 :nana 3. 5 Pt Win Northampton ?Double Chance v Plymouth @ 1.4
Bet 1 - Loss 2.61 Bet 2 - Profit 7.0 Bet 2a - Profit 4.15 Bet 3 - Loss 7.53
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