dalkent Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I've been running the football forecasting system for a few weeks now and decided to turn my attention back to tennis, although i see tennis is not so popular on here. I have built a number of models for men's tennis and will run them for what is left of the tennis season before trying properly next season. The models can be accessed on my website www.sportsforecaster.co.uk if anybody is interested. Please note the women's model on the site is old and not updated so use with caution. Also the tennis part of the website has not been fully debugged so if you notice anything strange please let me know Due the models being new i will start with initial bank of £100 and be betting stakes of 3% (of bank) multiplied by the model probability of winning. Unfortunately i have looked at tomorrows games and found no value in any of the matches. Some are close though and a drift in odds and i may be able to get started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Managed to get one on Ferrer £2.52 at 1.31 Resisting the urge to raise stakes even before i started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negapo Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I tested your site, i went straight to the ferrer by chance and saw the 1.31 at pinny. It's seems that you have put a lot of work on the site and on the models. Have you ever wondered of automating the bets (retrieving prices from your model, check them against BetFair and placing bets)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Managed to get Tsonga on betfair £2.07 at 1.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I tested your site, i went straight to the ferrer by chance and saw the 1.31 at pinny. It's seems that you have put a lot of work on the site and on the models. Have you ever wondered of automating the bets (retrieving prices from your model, check them against BetFair and placing bets)? Yes at got it at pinny. I see this all as a hobbie and i keep adding things all the time. I have thought about getting an odds feed etc. Maybe i will focus on this area at some point. For now I have 13 models running so this takes a bit of time. I am thinking of increasing the number Football models first as well as getting Womens tennis up and running properly. So many things i want to do. So little free time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_ Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Good luck dalkent :ok Will keep an eye on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Cheers Dave. Got Tsonga £2.30 at 1.4. One win one loss yesterday so not a great start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Del potro £2.20 at 1.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footysystems Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Matched Novak Djokovic 1.21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I never managed to get on Djokovic shame as he looks like about to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Nadal £2.44 at 1.36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Fairly decent start. The fun will start when we get onto some of the less known players next week. Bets 5 Strike Rate 80% P/L +£1.71 ROI +14.8% Bank £101.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system How often are you updating as some of the rankings are wrong now, you would need to update each week, preferably if you could have some link from atp site to yours automatically updating would save you undue work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system How often are you updating as some of the rankings are wrong now' date=' you would need to update each week, preferably if you could have some link from atp site to yours automatically updating would save you undue work?[/quote'] It's a fair point that some of the rankings may be out of date in some cases. I have no way that i know of to get a feed of rankings unless i go along the route of updating the ranking manually as each report is generated, i.e. another input. I decided for now not to do this as the power in the model of rankings is much reduced on previous models and only large swings in rankings will have a big effect. If it becomes a problem i will create another input or even make it an optional input. i.e. if you know the rating is wrong put your own in. The ATP site only seems to have the rankings to extract in a PDF file which is hard to deal with without lots of manual manipulation. If you have any other sources or ideas I would be keen to hear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system It's a fair point that some of the rankings may be out of date in some cases. I have no way that i know of to get a feed of rankings unless i go along the route of updating the ranking manually as each report is generated, i.e. another input. I decided for now not to do this as the power in the model of rankings is much reduced on previous models and only large swings in rankings will have a big effect. If it becomes a problem i will create another input or even make it an optional input. i.e. if you know the rating is wrong put your own in. The ATP site only seems to have the rankings to extract in a PDF file which is hard to deal with without lots of manual manipulation. If you have any other sources or ideas I would be keen to hear. Maybe try tennis explorer to see what options they have they display rankings so may have data friendly versions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shikovd Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Hello, I hope this will be helpful: http://xscores.com/tennis/Results.jsp?sports=tennis&result=4#.UlkK7FBBPes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshpaddy Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Hi Dalkent, that's a really good site you have there, I hav'nt seen any forecasting site like it before. I've given it a try over the last few days and picked out 2 selections so far for the tennis. S. Stevens to beat A. Petkovic @ 2.16 (Fair odds @ 1.722) Win S. Stosur to beat M. Keys @ 1.87 (Fair odds @ 1.534) Win I'm using BF odds and flat-stake (£2). I intend to use it for 100 games to see how it goes. I'd prefer to be selective with my picks and only go with over-priced odds in relation to your sites Fair Odds. Also the selection must have a 55%+ probability of winning, again according to your website. I'll post all my future selections on here. I read above about your time restraints with regards to keeping your site updated. Tennis-data gives weekly updates of results in CVS files which can be used in Excel. I have never created any tennis models so i'm unaware of the data required but, if you hav'nt already come across this data, then maybe it will help. I'm also interested in your football modelling and was wondering how often it is updated? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Hi Dalkent, that's a really good site you have there, I hav'nt seen any forecasting site like it before. I've given it a try over the last few days and picked out 2 selections so far for the tennis. S. Stevens to beat A. Petkovic @ 2.16 (Fair odds @ 1.722) Win S. Stosur to beat M. Keys @ 1.87 (Fair odds @ 1.534) Win I'm using BF odds and flat-stake (£2). I intend to use it for 100 games to see how it goes. I'd prefer to be selective with my picks and only go with over-priced odds in relation to your sites Fair Odds. Also the selection must have a 55%+ probability of winning, again according to your website. I'll post all my future selections on here. I read above about your time restraints with regards to keeping your site updated. Tennis-data gives weekly updates of results in CVS files which can be used in Excel. I have never created any tennis models so i'm unaware of the data required but, if you hav'nt already come across this data, then maybe it will help. I'm also interested in your football modelling and was wondering how often it is updated? Its Tennis-data that i got all the data from. Its possible though that if somebody doesn't play for a while then the rankings here are a bit out of date.Where the ranking is inputted on the report page if its more than 3 months old a warning will be given. I plan to update the tennis data on a Monday and maybe Wednesday/Thursday. Should be enough. With regards the football. I update this at least every Monday. If there are midweek games then more often. You can tell if i have updated by looking at the league table. If this is wrong then new data has not been added. The only part slow to update is the League Predictions. These involve simulating all remaining matches so takes a while for each league and therefore updated no more than once a week. Let me know how your betting goes. I have based my strategy on what worked historically. There may be other better strategies though. For Tennis using fair odds * 1.1 and betting on favourite historically this made a profit on all years since 2004. Football is not so clear cut as each league seems to require different strategies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Its Tennis-data that i got all the data from. Its possible though that if somebody doesn't play for a while then the rankings here are a bit out of date.Where the ranking is inputted on the report page if its more than 3 months old a warning will be given. I plan to update the tennis data on a Monday and maybe Wednesday/Thursday. Should be enough. With regards the football. I update this at least every Monday. If there are midweek games then more often. You can tell if i have updated by looking at the league table. If this is wrong then new data has not been added. The only part slow to update is the League Predictions. These involve simulating all remaining matches so takes a while for each league and therefore updated no more than once a week. Let me know how your betting goes. I have based my strategy on what worked historically. There may be other better strategies though. For Tennis using fair odds * 1.1 and betting on favourite historically this made a profit on all years since 2004. Football is not so clear cut as each league seems to require different strategies. Great work and thanks for your reply. I had 4 winners on 5 albeit old data lol ;) That was picking above the odds. Another player I talk to has 40 points profit per 100 picks on average but he charges :/ not sure if he uses similar systems he watches tennis all day and is a professional and friends with a lot of the players! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I think to charge you would need to be making big profits. I find that margins are so tight paying for tips would be hard to be profitable. Knowing the players etc would be a huge advantage though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I think to charge you would need to be making big profits. I find that margins are so tight paying for tips would be hard to be profitable. Knowing the players etc would be a huge advantage though. 40 points per hundred picks is massive profit because stakes are only between 1-4 points and worth paying by anyones standards but ideally id want to gain this advantage myself than paying £50 a month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshpaddy Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I've done 2 more today, currently both in-play, but took the odds before the match's started. Johnansson J. to beat Bachinger M. @ 2.203 (Fair odds @1.284) Kucova K. to beat Barrois K. @ 3.20 (Fair odds @1.776) With regards to the football, i'm thinking of using it for trading, but need more games to be played before I go in. For example Thursday night I checked the prices on BF for the games below with a view to trading out 30mins before the games kicked off on Saturday. Leyton Orient @ 2.62 (Thur Night Price) - Lay @ 2.32 (Pre-Kick Off Price) 12.93% Dagenham & Redgrave @ 2.62 (Thur Night Price) - Lay @ 2.66 (Pre-Kick Off Price) -1.50% My thinking here is that if the modelling is close correct, then as it gets closer to kick off people may see value in theses odds and hence the price comes in, but its only a guess at the moment. I'll have a better idea with a few more games. I also picked Coventry on Friday night @ 2.06, Kick off at 3pm today so ill check the lay price around 2.30pm for that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system I've done 2 more today, currently both in-play, but took the odds before the match's started. Johnansson J. to beat Bachinger M. @ 2.203 (Fair odds @1.284) Kucova K. to beat Barrois K. @ 3.20 (Fair odds @1.776) With regards to the football, i'm thinking of using it for trading, but need more games to be played before I go in. For example Thursday night I checked the prices on BF for the games below with a view to trading out 30mins before the games kicked off on Saturday. Leyton Orient @ 2.62 (Thur Night Price) - Lay @ 2.32 (Pre-Kick Off Price) 12.93% Dagenham & Redgrave @ 2.62 (Thur Night Price) - Lay @ 2.66 (Pre-Kick Off Price) -1.50% My thinking here is that if the modelling is close correct, then as it gets closer to kick off people may see value in theses odds and hence the price comes in, but its only a guess at the moment. I'll have a better idea with a few more games. I also picked Coventry on Friday night @ 2.06, Kick off at 3pm today so ill check the lay price around 2.30pm for that one. Well done welsh, hope you got the bookie that doesn't void injuries full game? Maybe you could start your own blog on gloryhunters with a start bank etc ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 13, 2013 Author Share Posted October 13, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Got a few tennis bets on over the next few days. I expect to add to them as odds shift a bit. Let the luck be with everybody. [TABLE=width: 575] [TR] [TD]Rosol[/TD] [TD]Huta Galung[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Rosol[/TD] [TD]£2.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Melzer[/TD] [TD]Lacko[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Lacko[/TD] [TD]£2.63[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gimeno Traver[/TD] [TD]Thiem[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Gimeno-Traver[/TD] [TD]£2.26[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Carreno Busta[/TD] [TD]Zopp[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Correno Busta[/TD] [TD]£2.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.94[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kamke[/TD] [TD]Sijsling[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Sijsling[/TD] [TD]£2.31[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.67[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paire[/TD] [TD]Giraldo[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Paire[/TD] [TD]£2.26[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sousa[/TD] [TD]Stakhovsky[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Sousa[/TD] [TD]£2.17[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vesely[/TD] [TD]Roger-Vasselin[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Roger Vasselin[/TD] [TD]£2.48[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gabashvili[/TD] [TD]Mannarinio[/TD] [TD]Back[/TD] [TD]Mannarino[/TD] [TD]£2.20[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.62[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Welshpaddy - Never thought about using it for trading. Let me know how that goes. Not sure if the odds swing enough for a profit but maybe you will prove us wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 13, 2013 Author Share Posted October 13, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system 40 points per hundred picks is massive profit because stakes are only between 1-4 points and worth paying by anyones standards but ideally id want to gain this advantage myself than paying £50 a month. Ok that's between 10 and 40% return? Will need more than models for that as they are depending on value and i doubt there would be that much available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Ok that's between 10 and 40% return? Will need more than models for that as they are depending on value and i doubt there would be that much available. 40% return each two weeks accumulative adds to a nice amount ;) I have several of your picks so hopefully they'll come off ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshpaddy Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system 2 more wins yesterday taking it to 4 from 4, good start. Found another 9 for today, but as i was compiling the list the 1st one came in. My selections are; 5. Kucova K. to beat Kerhove L. @2.58 (Fair odds 1.68) **Won 6. Lepchenko V. to beat Kleybanova A. @ 2.02 (Fair odds @ 1.352) 7. Rosenholm P. to beat Langer N. @ 2.40 (Fair odds 1.64) ** Rosenholm down 1st set as i write this. 8. Sousa J. to beat Stakhovsky S. @ 1.74 (Fair odds 1.405) 9. Roger-Vasselin E. to beat Vesely J. @ 1.51 (Fair odds 1.231) 10. Khachanov K. to beat Ramos A @ 3.70 (Fair odds 1.39) 11. Carreno-Busta P. to beat Zopp J. @ 2.18 (Fair odds 1.532) 12. Rosol L to beat Huta Galung J. @ 1.53 (Fair odds 1.217) 13. Witthoeft C. to beat Piter K. @ 2.14 (Fair odds 1.495) Hi Anaconda, with regards to the Coventry game yesterday I traded out 30mins before kick off(3.30pm not 2.30pm as previously posted) at 1.95 making 5.64%. These figures DO NOT include commission. I choose to trade football because my selections in the past are woeful at best. But it will be interesting to see if a profit can be made from this angle using dalkent's website. As this thread is regarding tennis, I wont be putting any more football selections on her but may start another thread. Bearing in mind that its dalkent's site that is the basis of these selections. Anyway, good luck with your selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Zeballos to beat berankis £1.6 at 2.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Unlucky I think with carreno-busta injured player meant my bet was void as not one set completed... what bookie were you looking at for that odd to show whether it would count dalkent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted October 14, 2013 Author Share Posted October 14, 2013 Re: Tennis Forecasting system Unlucky I think with carreno-busta injured player meant my bet was void as not one set completed... what bookie were you looking at for that odd to show whether it would count dalkent? Was with Pinnacle so just a void bet. Still a good day though. 4 wins, 1 loss 1 void. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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