Tennis Forecasting system

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system 118-1 I believe. Doubt i would ever contemplate a large accumulator though.

[anaconda69]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system This looks ok tomorrow Del Potro - Gasquet 04.11.2013, 21:00, Masters Cup ATP, -, indoors Under 21.5 games betvictor 1.95

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Not sure i will touch these games. Most too close to call. May bet on Djokovic/Nadal if they lose a first set. My current performance is No Bets 62 S/R 69.4% ROI 12.3% Quite happy with the trial of the men's model. Will get woman's model ready for next season and trial that. Most probably work on a more advanced men's and up the stakes.

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Trading went well yesterday. Went for the outsiders. Stayed on wawrinka and got the win. Cashed in Gasquet after first set. Will definitely be going on Ferrer today. He beat Nadal last week and odds of 4.7 too good to miss. Cash in and switch to Nadal most likely once Nadal's odds go to 1.6 to 1.7. Similar story on Federer

[Matthew]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Did Nadal drift sufficiently?

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Nowhere near. Too one sided. Win some loss some :)

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Tennis is back up and running again. Finished last season at 10.1% ROI. Will start again this year and will use a points based stake pattern as rather keep my stakes secret :) First 3 selections are [TABLE=width: 328]

[TR] [TD]Niemenen[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Duckworth[/TD] [TD=align: right]1pts [/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benneteau[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Motasovic[/TD] [TD=align: right]1pts [/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lopez[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Kukushkin[/TD] [TD=align: right]1pts[/TD] [TD] at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.7[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[skycity]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Good to see you return. Hope to see some good results here.

[dan1980]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system I was reading this thread and wondered what selection policy you use. Is it anything over 60%?. Also is there a site that looks at players current form, injuries etc

[dan1980]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Do you look for a range of odds or doesn't it matter?

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system The selection policy I use is to bet if the model says there is value in being on the favourite. Also I then subjectively take into account other factors not in the model such as home player and injuries. The model already takes into account recent and long term form.

[tycobb667]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Why do you only bet on the favourites? Is it that you don't like the variance or has it something to do with the model?

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system

Why do you only bet on the favourites? Is it that you don't like the variance or has it something to do with the model?

When I backtested it also worked when I simply backed where there was value. The variability was much higher though and some long losing streaks. I prefer to back more winners i guess :).

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Sousa to beat hanescu 1pt at 1.49

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Kampke to beat jaziri. 1pt at 1.58

[tycobb667]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system

Kampke to beat jaziri. 1pt at 1.58

1.58 is what the model says is the fair odds. Do you base this bet on some other info?

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system

1.58 is what the model says is the fair odds. Do you base this bet on some other info?

Well spotted-not much value there. An error on my part as I was doing on mobile. I didn't have any other info. Current bets concluded and running are as follows. I have added a few more. [TABLE=width: 411] [TR] [TD]Niemenen[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Duckworth[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benneteau[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Motasovic[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lopez[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Kukushkin[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.68[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sousa[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Hanescu[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.49[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kampke[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Jaziri[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.58[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chardy[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Mannarino[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.71[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Davydenko[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Brands[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.71[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dodig[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Brown[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.46[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gulbis[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Evans[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Results and a few more added. Not going great yet but not many matches played. [TABLE=width: 429]

[TR] [TD]Niemenen[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Duckworth[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benneteau[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Motasovic[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lopez[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Kukushkin[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.68[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sousa[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Hanescu[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.49[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Kampke[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Jaziri[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.58[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chardy[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Mannarino[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.71[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Davydenko[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Brands[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.71[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dodig[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Brown[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.46[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gulbis[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Evans[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Querrey[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Matasovic[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.69[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nishikiri[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Ebden[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.31[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cilic[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Dimitrov[/TD] [TD]0.75pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Another [TABLE=width: 365]

[TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 122]Wawrinka[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]to beat[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 74]Becker[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 51]1.5pts[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 19]at[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 35]1.24[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system [TABLE=width: 365]

[TR] [TD]Kohlschreiber[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Gojowczyk[/TD] [TD]1.5pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.27[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Karlovic[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Brown[/TD] [TD]1pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ferrer[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Brands[/TD] [TD]1.5pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gasquet[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Monfils[/TD] [TD].75pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.27[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Well everything was going great fine until those last 4 all lost :wall Current position is not good [TABLE=width: 128]

[TR] [TD=width: 64]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64, align: right]21.50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]P/L[/TD] [TD=class: xl65, align: right]-5.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ROI[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]-25%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]S/R[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]47% [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Can only get better from here Some for tomorrow [TABLE=width: 416] [TR] [TD]Chardy[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Mahut[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Simon[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Copil[/TD] [TD]1.50[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.35[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fognini[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Bhampri[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Let the punishment continue :) [TABLE=width: 480]

[TR] [TD]T20[/TD] [TD]Fognini[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Bhampri[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]T21[/TD] [TD]Anderson[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Groth[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]T22[/TD] [TD]Paire[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Granollers P[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]T23[/TD] [TD]Nadal[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Gulbis[/TD] [TD]1.50[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.26[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Sorry typo T22 Paire to beat Garcia Lopez 1 pt at 1.88

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Some more for tonight/tomorrow. ROI now up to -20%. At least moving in the right direction :) [TABLE=width: 426]

[TR] [TD]Nishikori[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Cilic[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chardy[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Groth[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Granoller M[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Paire[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wawrinka[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Bedene[/TD] [TD]1.50[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Popsisil[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Bhampri[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.41[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Well things went better today. All five won:nana. ROI upto -6%. Will post more up later. Seems my website is down so can't access the tennis models.

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system More for tomorrow. [TABLE=width: 426]

[TR] [TD]Hewitt[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Nishikor[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.53[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Granoller M[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Roger-Vass[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nadal[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Monfils[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.46[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Current results [TABLE=width: 128] [TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 64, align: right]29.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]P/L[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]-1.71[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]ROI[/TD] [TD=class: xl67, align: right]-6%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]S/R[/TD] [TD=class: xl67, align: right]59%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Hewitt did the job. 8 wins in a row now. Almost recouped all losses.

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Granollers let me down today. He was a break up in the 3rd too. Oh well still 2 out of 3 making it profitable day. No tips for tomorrow as too one sided the finals and I don't touch qualifiers yet. Current position. [TABLE=width: 128]

[TR] [TD=class: xl65, width: 64]Stake[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, width: 64, align: right]31.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]P/L[/TD] [TD=class: xl66, align: right]-1.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]ROI[/TD] [TD=class: xl67, align: right]-3%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]S/R[/TD] [TD=class: xl67, align: right]60%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system Back on it for tomorrow. Many outsiders so not full confident although winning 9 out of the last 10 has obviously raised my hopes. Lowered the stakes accordingly [TABLE=width: 426]

[TR] [TD]Brands[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Baghdatis[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.98[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Garcia Lopez[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Haase[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lu[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Sijsling[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paire[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Przysienzy[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.59[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sousa[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Rosol[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benneteau[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Ebden[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mayer[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Motasovic[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[dalkent]

Re: Tennis Forecasting system One win and one loss today so no harm done. Most matches later tonight. [TABLE=width: 496]

[TR] [TD]Garcia Lopez[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Haase[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lu[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Sijsling[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.29[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Paire[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Przysienzy[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.59[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sousa[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Rosol[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.42[/TD] [TD]Lose[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Benneteau[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Ebden[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.64[/TD] [TD]Win[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mayer[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Motasovic[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.88[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bautista[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Gimen Traver[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brands[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Klahn[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.63[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Baghdatis[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Johnson[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.44[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Haas[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Sock[/TD] [TD]1.50[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mahut[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Harison[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.64[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Niemenen[/TD] [TD]to beat[/TD] [TD]Kavcic[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]pts[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.35[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]