Euroleague Qualification

[mcege]

Varese-Oldenburg Varese returns to international campaign after a long decade, but I don't expect that journey to last more. They have been unconvincing at friendlies (had a losing record, despite they played against Italian teams only, some of them were just mediocre top level teams and even second league teams...) and I rate the squad they built, lowly. They don't have a deep bench and most of the starters arrived this season, couple of them are really overrated players, who I think could've had a chance to play at these levels, if economic crisis hadn't hit basketball in some countries. Oldenburg has a better squad on paper, they didn't have massive amount of transactions during summer. They didn't seem as they are world beaters in friendlies as well, but they played against similar level of teams and as far as I see, they had a winning record. I don't think Oldenburg should be an underdog. Oldenburg ml 3/10 @2.05 Lietuvos Rytas-VEF Riga Rytas is the host of this tournament and it is the team with most appearances and experience in European scene, for sure. But, I don't think an upset is out of table. Riga is coached by Lithuanian R.Butautas and it's a very stable club, they don't change the skeleton of the squad for every single season, coach Butautas is with the team for three seasons. I'm not a fan of Lietuvos' squad, especially their front court lacks both quality and quantity, O.Cook is a spirited guard, without consistency to include teammates over and over. Lietuvos brought D.Bauermann, although I admire his previous work, he disappointed with Polish NT and I believe, it'll take more time him to establish his solid defensive approach, to a team which never seemed to care about defensive end of the court, in recent couple seasons. Lietuvos had 6-3 preseason record, 2 of those W's were with 1 point, and couple of them were against teams which can be no match against Riga. Hosts always had success in these qualifications, therefore I'll keep my stakes moderated, although I believe, they have pretty similar level of squads, Riga is more stable team with a Lithuanian coach. If this game was in any different city of Earth, I would've use my regular stakes... VEF Riga ml 1/10 @3.06

[mcege]

Re: Euroleague Qualification Oldenburg won, Riga lost, +2.15

[mcege]

Re: Euroleague Qualification Lietuvos Rytas - Oldenburg I'm not forgetting about home teams' dominance in this campaign, but I expect to see a really close game. Rytas was far from impressing in the first game, I don't like their squad too much, they don't have enough depth to blow the games out. Oldenburg played ok in first game, but they are simply world beaters. When I compare the squads on paper, I rate those teams to be pretty similar, Rytas has the edge of playing at home, but I don't believe it's enough to win the game by almost double digits. Oldenburg(+6) 3/10 @ 1.962

[mcege]

Re: Euroleague Qualification I didn't want to open a new thread, Turkish Cup Tofas - Selcuk Universitesi 3rd game in 3rd day for each team. Tofas is in must win to qualify, whereas Selcuk doesn't have any chance to qualify. Tofas is coming off an ok performance against Fenerbahce and a convincing win against hosts, whereas Selcuk got destroyed by host club (Olin) and then, played a close game against a relaxed Fenerbahce. Besides Tofas having at least couple level better qualified squad, they have the deeper squad as well and Selcuk's almost whole guard rotation consists of players having 30+ ages. Not the best conditions for 3rd game in 3rd day and there's nothing to play left. Tofas is the better team, has much better coach, they'll qualify with a win and they definitely want to progress further in the cup. Point difference might become decisive depending on the next game's result, so I don't think Tofas will even let a backdoor cover. ​Tofas(-11) 3/10 @ 1.926

[mcege]

Re: Euroleague Qualification Oostende - Banvit I don't have too many information about Oostende, but Belgian clubs tend to play high tempo in European campaign and that didn't seem to change, when Oostende shocked Khimki, the other day. They found 29 baskets out of 16 assists and went to foul line for 27 times and scored 90 points against this tournament's dream team. May be they were too relaxed and out of pressure, which let to a solid percentage shooting, but although local league is no comparison to this campaign, this is a team scored 90+ points per game, last regular season of Belgian league. Banvit changed the coach, added couple good players and didn't lose so many solid players, only couple rotation guys. The biggest change I saw on court was some players are green flagged to take early shots in transition and most of the players are green flagged to shot from perimeter, no matter the shot clock, if they're open. They have an attacking back court defense, which leads to steals and fast break points, but also leads to 4 on 3's, 3 on 2's in front court and I must say Banvit's front court defense is terrible, since they have personnel who is terrible at the defensive end. All in all, I absolutely don't agree with this line, my fair line is at least 160. Biggest play of the season, so far... ​Over 152.5 5/10 @ 1.962

[mcege]

Re: Euroleague Qualification Somebody believes the opposite, so I'm adding one more unit: ​Tofas(-8.5) 1/10 @ 1.901