Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row1] [TD=class: firstColumn]Crystal Palace v Swansea City (13:30 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mindfulness]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September Crystal Palace V Swansea City Crystal Palace +0.25 @ 20/21 (Pinnacle) 2.5 Units I backed Swansea on the positive handicap V Liverpool last week and I thought they were decent value for the result. Everything in gambling is situational and I feel this contest will be a different kettle of fish so I am happy to oppose Michael Laudrup’s side here as they are really short with a general valuation of 5/4 across the board. What’s interesting about this game is that although I believe the market is wrong, it’s easy to understand why it’s wrong. First of all Swansea are playing with great confidence, they were the first team to take points off Liverpool this season and could have even gone on to win the game. This was followed more recently by the total annihilation of Valencia at the Mestalla, so that’s 2 consecutive away victories for Swansea when you include the West Brom game. Based on recent results and performances it’s easy to see why Swansea have been priced as huge favorites for the Palace game but the price does not reflect the potential dynamics of such a contest. First of all this will be Swansea’s 3^rd game in 7 days and they don’t have a large squad to compensate for a high turnover of games. On the pitch, the Valencia game went very smoothly with Valencia having to play with 10 men nearly the entire match but Swansea would still have had to go through all the travel and disruption etc. that such a game entails. Swansea’s preparation for the Palace match will have been compromised because of this, while Palace will have had a whole week to prepare thoroughly for this game. While I expect Swansea to continue to be a force at the Liberty Stadium this season I also expect their hit and miss away form to continue. I have said before that Selhurst Park is an ominous place to travel for away teams and that will not change despite Palace playing their football in the EPL. Ian Holloway’s team has a lot of power and pace, their attacking tempo was absolutely ferocious in the home game against Sunderland. We played with great verticality and I expect it will be the same here. There is a big danger the Swan’s will suffer from fatigue the longer the game goes on and Palace will have more options coming from the bench than their opponents to shake things up in the last 3^rd of the game. So not only do Palace have the advantage of physical condition they will also have a significant ariel advantage, an area Swansea are particularly weak. I will also predict that Holloway will deploy Jimmy Kebe from the start and drop Dwight Gayle to the bench which will push Palace’s ariel advantage even further while keeping the pace of Gayle in reserve for when Swansea tire. What are the dangers for Palace here? First of all I don’t underestimate Swansea, their recent performances have been excellent while their ability to retain the ball with such confidence is impressive. Their central median is in danger of getting out-muscled by Palace while the home side will probably play a deep defensive line in this game so Swansea may try more wing attacks with Dyer and Routledge. Adrian Mariappa will probably again fill in at RB for the injured Joel Ward (who is excellent by the way) so as always the Palace full-backs will have to be extra focused off the ball. In addition to RB Joel Ward, Palace will be without suspened DM Kagisho Dikgacoi while a number of peripheral figures will also be sidelined. Swansea will be without RM/LM/CM Pablo Hernandez while Captain CB Ashley Williams is doubtful with a knee problem. Projected Palace lineup (4-2-3-1): Speroni, Mariappa, Gabbidon, Delaney, Moxey, Jedinak, Guedioura, Kebe, Campana, Puncheon, Chamakh. Basically the market has opened the door for a speculation here. The Palace price is long when you analyze the circumstances heading into this contest so to get the home team on the +0.25 line around EVS is worth a spin in my view.

[HastGill1]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September

Crystal Palace V Swansea City Crystal Palace +0.25 @ 20/21 (Pinnacle) 2.5 Units I backed Swansea on the positive handicap V Liverpool last week and I thought they were decent value for the result. Everything in gambling is situational and I feel this contest will be a different kettle of fish so I am happy to oppose Michael Laudrup’s side here as they are really short with a general valuation of 5/4 across the board. What’s interesting about this game is that although I believe the market is wrong, it’s easy to understand why it’s wrong. First of all Swansea are playing with great confidence, they were the first team to take points off Liverpool this season and could have even gone on to win the game. This was followed more recently by the total annihilation of Valencia at the Mestalla, so that’s 2 consecutive away victories for Swansea when you include the West Brom game. Based on recent results and performances it’s easy to see why Swansea have been priced as huge favorites for the Palace game but the price does not reflect the potential dynamics of such a contest. First of all this will be Swansea’s 3^rd game in 7 days and they don’t have a large squad to compensate for a high turnover of games. On the pitch, the Valencia game went very smoothly with Valencia having to play with 10 men nearly the entire match but Swansea would still have had to go through all the travel and disruption etc. that such a game entails. Swansea’s preparation for the Palace match will have been compromised because of this, while Palace will have had a whole week to prepare thoroughly for this game. While I expect Swansea to continue to be a force at the Liberty Stadium this season I also expect their hit and miss away form to continue. I have said before that Selhurst Park is an ominous place to travel for away teams and that will not change despite Palace playing their football in the EPL. Ian Holloway’s team has a lot of power and pace, their attacking tempo was absolutely ferocious in the home game against Sunderland. We played with great verticality and I expect it will be the same here. There is a big danger the Swan’s will suffer from fatigue the longer the game goes on and Palace will have more options coming from the bench than their opponents to shake things up in the last 3^rd of the game. So not only do Palace have the advantage of physical condition they will also have a significant ariel advantage, an area Swansea are particularly weak. I will also predict that Holloway will deploy Jimmy Kebe from the start and drop Dwight Gayle to the bench which will push Palace’s ariel advantage even further while keeping the pace of Gayle in reserve for when Swansea tire. What are the dangers for Palace here? First of all I don’t underestimate Swansea, their recent performances have been excellent while their ability to retain the ball with such confidence is impressive. Their central median is in danger of getting out-muscled by Palace while the home side will probably play a deep defensive line in this game so Swansea may try more wing attacks with Dyer and Routledge. Adrian Mariappa will probably again fill in at RB for the injured Joel Ward (who is excellent by the way) so as always the Palace full-backs will have to be extra focused off the ball. In addition to RB Joel Ward, Palace will be without suspened DM Kagisho Dikgacoi while a number of peripheral figures will also be sidelined. Swansea will be without RM/LM/CM Pablo Hernandez while Captain CB Ashley Williams is doubtful with a knee problem. Projected Palace lineup (4-2-3-1): Speroni, Mariappa, Gabbidon, Delaney, Moxey, Jedinak, Guedioura, Kebe, Campana, Puncheon, Chamakh. Basically the market has opened the door for a speculation here. The Palace price is long when you analyze the circumstances heading into this contest so to get the home team on the +0.25 line around EVS is worth a spin in my view.

I backed Palace for relegation at the start of the season in what was one of my biggest antepost bets, I honestly thought they had the weakest looking side I had ever seen at this level. We are a fair way from crunch time in terms of what will happen to them in that regard but I think we will both agree that it will be their home form that decides their fate. Holloway seems to have learned from Blackpool's crazy, face into the propeller season in the Premiership and combined pace and creativity with defensive responsibility and in Jedinak they look to have a pretty classy player on their books from what I've seen. Puncheon is someone I've always thought is a very decent player too although I don't think Chamakh is the man to rely on for goals, obviously Holloway's options were limited in that position and he did the best he could. In terms of this bet I can see your logic, Swansea have a reasonably decent squad and I don't think there should be any problems with fatigue this early in the season but we don't really know how the 3 games a week will affect them as yet. Palace have certainly looked difficult to break down from what I've seen so far and while 3 defeats from 4 isn't ideal it's hardly surprising considering they have played Spurs, Stoke away and Man Utd, those type of games won't really decide their fate. I certainly don't think a draw is out of the equation here, certainly at near evens it looks worth a play to me, in truth I think it's a very difficult game to call.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September It is indeed a difficult game to call from the 1X2 perspective, I agree. But the incorrect market price (subjective) has opened the door to make a nice AH value play on Palace. Win, loose or draw I believe this play in this particular situation will be profitable over a large sample size so it was a fairly easy decision for me personally. But it is an interesting point you raise HastGill because if you were to just look at this fixture on paper without seeing the prices you'd be thinking "What the hell is going to happen with this game???". By the way I am very upset you have heavily backed Palace to go down, you will join Aldershot Town and Danny Dichio in my little black book as a consequence.

[HastGill1]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September

It is indeed a difficult game to call from the 1X2 perspective, I agree. But the incorrect market price (subjective) has opened the door to make a nice AH value play on Palace. Win, loose or draw I believe this play in this particular situation will be profitable over a large sample size so it was a fairly easy decision for me personally. But it is an interesting point you raise HastGill because if you were to just look at this fixture on paper without seeing the prices you'd be thinking "What the hell is going to happen with this game???". By the way I am very upset you have heavily backed Palace to go down, you will join Aldershot Town and Danny Dichio in my little black book as a consequence.

:lol

[IAmGooner]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September I think Swansea are gonna beat Palace pretty well in this one. Price isnt hugely appealing though.

[wisey10]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 2.63 Coral (3 Points) I like this Swansea side a lot but they are a daft price here. I don't think Holloway's men are going to be any whipping boys this season. Their home form was excellent last season and this is where they will pick up the majority of their points this year. Jedinak is a good, solid defensive figure for them in the middle and with Puncheon and Jerome out wide for them, their pace on the counter is going to be paramount. The Swans had a great win at Valencia in the week but it does mean Palace have had better preparation for this match. It's funny how often you seem a team on a high after a great victory go and put a poor performance in their next match. But ultimately, it's the price which is the major factor in this match for me and Palce are being under estimated for my money. Palace draw no bet.

[Mindfulness]

Re: Crystal Palace v Swansea City > Sunday 22nd September

Crystal Palace +0.25 @ 20/21 (Pinnacle) 2.5 Units

FT: Crystal Palace 0-2 Swansea City = BET LOST The bet was good... for the first 80 seconds. Thoroughly deserved win for Swansea, they continue their excellent form with no signs of slowing. Palace on the other hand were totally witless, there was no need to disrupt the cental median further by starting Barry Bannan today, wtf was Holloway thinking? There was more rotation than I was expecting for Palace here with some poor choices imo and just a general lack of cohesion. Anway rant over, my read of the situation was wrong. We move on.