scottj15 Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 06/10/2013 - Sunday A visit to the Uruguay league for tomorrows selection as Danubio take on Juventud at home. Danubios last 5 games have resulted in 4 wins and 1 draw. Juventud's last 5 have resulted in 3 losses a draw and a win. This gives Danubio a 15 point advantage. Head to Head the two teams have played 11 times. Danubio have won the fixture 9 times giving them a 82% win rate. Seems a really good price on this one to considering the stats above and the fact its 2nd v 14th in the Uruguay League! DANUBIO v Juventud @ 1.40 - Stake = 1.13 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 06/10/2013 - Sunday DANUBIO v Juventud @ 1.40 - Stake = 1.13 pts 4-1 :nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.79 pts No of Bets: 14 No of Wins: 13 Strike Rate: 92.9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 20/10/2013 Sunday Today's selection is within the Cyprus first division as Anorthosis take on Achnas at home. Anorthosis have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 games whereas Achnas have lost 3, drawn 1 and won 1. Head to head these teams have played 30 times with Anorthosis winning 27 giving them a 90% strike rate. ANORTHOSIS v Achnas @ 1.20 - Stake = 1.17 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 20, 2013 Author Share Posted October 20, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes ANORTHOSIS v Achnas @ 1.20 - Stake = 1.17 pts 2-1 :nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 12.02 pts No of Bets: 15 No of Wins: 14 Strike Rate: 93.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Congratulations. I like this a lot :ok Sent from my GT-I9100 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Thanks jayalexander :ok 25/10/2013 - Friday Just one selection for today in the Welsh Premier League. TNS play Connah's Q at Home after only losing 1 of their previous 5 and winning 3. Connah's Q are 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw from their last 5 giving TNS a 5 point advantage. Head to Head both teams have played 29 times with TNS winning the fixture 25 times. This gives them a 86% win rate. TNS vs Connah's Q. @ 1.20 - Stake = 1.20 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes TNS vs Connah's Q. @ 1.20 - Stake = 1.20 pts 5-0 :nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 12.26 pts No of Bets: 16 No of Wins: 15 Strike Rate: 93.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 26/10/2013 - Saturday A busy day Saturday... Firstly Man United are at home to Stoke. Man United are 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last 5 games. Stoke on the other hand are 3 losses a draw and a win giving man united a 7 point advantage. Head to Head these teams have played 10 times with Man United winning 9 giving them a 90% strike rate. In Estonia, Sillamäe Kalev are at home to Tammeka Tartu. Sillamäe Kalev have are 3 wins and 2 losses from their last 5. Tammeka Tartu are 3 losses a draw and a win giving Sillamäe Kalev a 8 point advantage. Head to head these teams have played 24 times, Sillamäe Kalev have won 18 giving them a 75% Strike rate. Staying in Estonia, Flora play Kuressaare at home. Flora have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. Kuressaare are in aweful form with 4 losses and just 1 win from their last 5. Head to head the two teams have played 37 times. Flora have won 34 of these fixtures giving them a 92% strike rate. And finally, over in Ukraine, Shakhtar take on Zorya at home. Shakhtar have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 whereas Zorya have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 giving Shakhtar a 5 point advantage. Head to head the two teams have played 14 times with Shakhtar winning all 14 giving them a 100% strike rate! MAN UNITED v Stoke @ 1.36 - Stake = 1.23 pts SILLAMAE KALEV v Tammeka Tartu @ 1.12 - Stake = 1.23 pts FLORA v Kuressaare @ 1.04 - Stake = 1.23 pts SHAKHTAR v Zorya @ 1.10 - Stake = 1.23 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 26/10/2013 - Saturday MAN UNITED v Stoke @ 1.36 - Stake = 1.23 pts 3-2 :nana SILLAMAE KALEV v Tammeka Tartu @ 1.12 - Stake = 1.23 pts 6-0 :nana FLORA v Kuressaare @ 1.04 - Stake = 1.23 pts 4-0 :nana SHAKHTAR v Zorya @ 1.10 - Stake = 1.23 pts 4-0 :nana 4 out of 4 :loon Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 13.02 pts No of Bets: 20 No of Wins: 19 Strike Rate: 95% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 27/10/2013 - Sunday Dynamo Kiev take on Mariupol at home in the Ukraine Premier League. Dynamo Kiev have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 whereas Mariupol have lost 4 and won 1 of their last 5 giving Dynamo Kiev a 14 point advantage. Head to head these two teams have played 30 times with Dynamo Kiev winning 25 of them giving them a 83% win rate. DYNAMO KIEV v Mariupol @ 1.33 - Stake = 1.30 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes DYNAMO KIEV v Mariupol @ 1.33 - Stake = 1.30 pts 1-0 :nana With Dynamo Kiev down to 10 men and with it still 0-0 at 80 minutes I thought this was gonna be a right off but Dynamo got awarded a late penalty to keep the winning run going :loon Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 13.45 pts No of Bets: 21 No of Wins: 20 Strike Rate: 95.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi Scott, I really like your system and I appreciate your effort. My only criticism is that there is not alot of value to get from it yet. The highest odd it got was 1.4 so far which requires a rather large stake to be interesting. Not even talking about the ones lower than 1.15 they require gigantic stakes to be interesting and then all it takes is one bad day for the team to cause a major headache. So I would like to think with you to find a way to create more value per bet. Is it possible to implement an AH rule for some of the matches you predict? Maybe if home team plays against a bottom 6 of the league team, an AH-1 or -2 is allowed? Perhaps overs and unders can also add value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi Ziener, thanks for your comments. This is something I am currently looking into. As you have rightly said the system has been going almost 2 months but has only made a 34% increase on the original bank even though there is 95% strike rate. I like your idea about the goal differences. The only thing that would worry me is that there has been a number of games where the goal count/difference is actually quite low but it is defiantly something I will look at and paper trail if necessary. At the moment I am trying to come up with a new staking plan which may include doubling some of the selections up to give a higher return and increasing the stakes slightly along the higher. Hopefully this will see a higher return on the strong strike rate that has been shown so far. I will post more on that when I have it :) Thanks Scott Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi, It's nice to hear you are also looking into creating a bit more value I think it is definitely possible. I think however you should not change your system I would keep this what you have going now and call it like the base value system or something. Then you could perhaps split your bankroll in 2 and invest 50% in the base system and 50% in a bigger value per bet system. Looking at the results right now we see: 1 GERMANY v Austria 3-0 2 LEVADIA v Takkeka Tartu 2-0 3 BENFICA v Ferreira 3-1 4 ANDERLECHT v Mechelen 5-0 5 PARTIZAN BELGRADE v OFK Belgrade 2-0 6 ANZOATEGUI v Zulia 1-0 7 SUDUVA v Tauras 3-1 8 LEVSKI v Neftochimic Burgas 6-0 9 PORTO v Guimaraes 1-0 10 BAYERN MUNICH v Wolfsburg 1-0 11 VALENCIA v Vallecano 1-0 12 ANORTHOSIS v Doxa 1-2 13 ZALGIRIS v Dainava Alytus 1-0 14 DANUBIO v Juventud 4-1 15 ANORTHOSIS v Achnas 2-1 16 NS vs Connah's Q. 5-0 17 MAN UNITED v Stoke 3-2 18 SILLAMAE KALEV v Tammeka Tartu 6-0 19 FLORA v Kuressaare 4-0 20 SHAKHTAR v Zorya 4-0 21 DYNAMO KIEV v Mariupol 1-0 In green is what I can discover to be the biggest value trend in your system and that is a 61% over 2.5 goals strike rate. The other more accurate but less valuable trend is over 1.5 goals and that has a 71% strike rate, over 3.5 goals has a 47% strike rate. Maybe there is a way to more accurately predict if a game will produce an over 2.5 result I think that is where a possible big value increase is possible. The AH Handicap -1 is at 52% Accuracy and the AH Handicap -2 is at 38% accuracy. The 52% is still interesting but the 38% is imo too low to be considered reliable. So I think if there is away that we can increase the over 2.5 goals prediction ability of the system to 70-75% or the over 1.5 to 80% or higher, then the system will be able to return much more value. If you would split your bank into a secure version that just bets results and a 2nd version that bets over 1,5 or 2.5 based upon some new criteria then I think it will become a very interesting system to play every week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
value4sports Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes interesting selections. surely home clean sheets would be the way to go. so far results have produced 15/21 home clean sheets which is 71% or odds of 1.40. Normally the odds for a clean sheet for hot home favourites is at least 1.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Good suggestion forgot all about that bet type as I don't usually make it. I think we need about 50 to 100 results before we can really draw representative conclusions but I agree the home clean sheet seems a big value trend with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRowley007 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Good thinking Ziener, but I actually think 61% over 2.5 goals isn't really enough to make money because the overs will be big odds on in Scott's games where the short priced favourite is expected to win easily. I think the system is fine now if you are playing it with a sizeable bank- say at least £1000 (this wouldn't actually be that stressful with the current strike rate and conservative staking plan). If you are playing for smaller money though it is a bit slow so you guys are right to try to find a way to increase the winnings. It has done exactly what you asked of it though in finding consistent winners, just that in doing so it is quite selective so there are fewer games. Still there's no point in having a system which produces hundreds of selections but loses money so I think you are on the right track here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi yes so far I like his accuracy let's see how it develops overtime. The accuracy of home clean sheet is in fact the highest value you can get next to the original system. Since you cannot change the criteria for the match selection I think it will be too hard to start predicting home clean sheets on a regular basis. But if he can keep this up I think after about 50 or a 100 picks we can draw some better conclusions of what is most likely to happen next after a win for the home team. As for the 1000 stake, I personally do not bet like that but if you can lose 1000 sterling at a risk of 4.8% then I think it it is wise to keep an eye on this system. I would however never recommend anyone to bet like that because of the risk on red cards, fixed matches and so on. I do have a mistrust of the Eastern European Leagues that are often in his selections. Just google it or, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2124515/FIFPro-chief-claims-match-fixing-rife-eastern-European-clubs-BUYING-league-positions.html There is one article out of many. If you are a regular punter in football you have to consider matchfixing and therefore betting those stakes I would only do that for top western league teams that are not as easy to fix, leaving a very sparse selection of games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Some really good points, so thank you all. I like the idea of a clean sheet for the home team or a win to nil bet. The two selections for this evening (which I will post momentarily) have odds of 2.2 and 1.85 for a Win to Nil. I think averaging this sort of price could provide a better profit rate but defiantly at a higher risk. 15/21 have successfully won to nil so far but a poor penalty decision, or lapse in concentration from the home team could turn a game round in seconds. I think higher stakes are defiantly an option however after 21 games I would not feel confident enough to do this myself. As Ziener mentioned 50-100 games will defiantly give a better set of results for analysis. The aim of this was to produce a high strike rate which so far has been successful. I think I will start paper tailing some different markets alongside each selection so that as the results build up there is a better understanding of what other markets are available, which are most successful and at what odds . Thanks all :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 01/11/2013 - Friday The first selection this evening is within the Austria Erste Liga as Altach take on Hartberg at home. Altach have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games. However Hartberg have lost 3, drawn 1 and won 1 giving Altach a 10 point advantage. Head to head these teams have played 17 times with Altach winning 13 giving them a strike rate of 76%. The second selection is within the Turkish Super Liga as Galatasaray play Konyaspor at home. Galatasaray have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 games. However Konyaspor have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 giving Galatasaray a 5 point advantage. Head to head these teams have played 14 times with Galatasaray winning 11 giving them a strike rate of 79%. ALTACH v Hartberg @ 1.35 - Stake = 1.35 pts GALATASARAY v Konyaspor @ 1.25 - Stake = 1.35 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 01/11/2013 - Friday ALTACH v Hartberg @ 1.35 - Stake = 1.35 pts 3-0 :nana GALATASARAY v Konyaspor @ 1.25 - Stake = 1.35 pts 2-1:nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 14.26 pts No of Bets: 23 No of Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 95.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Cheers Scott I staked a little bigger and my trust in you payed off :) Curious to what you select tomorrow if you need some help just give a shout and maybe some people on here can help you make selections.Any particular set of leagues you focus on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Here is my First: Northern Ireland IFA Premiership Linfield vs Ards @ 1,20 Betvictor 1) Out of a total 15 meetings Linfield won 12 = 80% strike rate. 2) Linfield won 4, draw 1 and Ards won 2 and lost 3. Giving Linfield a 13 point advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziener Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Won :) Linfield vs Ards 5-2 ( + infamous dancing banana :nana) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 14.26 pts No of Bets: 23 No of Wins: 22 Strike Rate: 95.7% hi mate R U still posting picks? I gave been following and Ur works appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes hi mate R U still posting picks? I gave been following and Ur works appreciated Hi mate, Yes I am however I've been rushed off my feet this week with final year university work. Full selections for the weekend to follow tomorrow :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Hi mate' date=' Yes I am however I've been rushed off my feet this week with final year university work. Full selections for the weekend to follow tomorrow :)[/quote'] ok thanks, hopefully others could post some up too maybe to help you out ;) Or a website storing the data to retrieve the selections if you haven't already got that in hand ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes I'm Going to try a new format of presenting selections to hopefully make it a little easier to see the stats for each selection. Selections will now be displayed as the two teams followed by the two teams recent form followed by the head to head form (Home,Draw,Away), followed by betting odds and finally stake. Hope this helps :) Saturday 08/11/2013 CHELSEA v West Brom - WLWWW v WLDDW - 12-0-2 @ 1.3 - Stake = 1.43 pts INTER MILAN v Livorno - WDWDL v WDLLL - 9-2-0 @ 1.33 - Stake = 1.43 pts Sunday 09/11/2013 RIVER PLATE v Juventud - LDWWL v LLWLL - 9-0-2 @ 1.53 - Stake = 1.43 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan1980 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Ive just joined this site and stumbled upon your system. Could you please explain what Score A and Score B related to? I am assuming that Score A is the pts won over the last 5 games but not sure what score B is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan1980 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Its OK now, I have read the post again and I understand this. Could you please send my a copy of your spreadsheet please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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