scottj15 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hi all, I have been working on a system for a few weeks now and would like to share it on here and keep a clearer set of results/ record of it's progress. The system is for any league football and picks selections on what I believe to be the 3 biggest attributes that affect a game of football: 1) Head to Head statistics between both teams 2) Recent form of both teams 3) Home Advantage for one of the teams Because of this selections will be made on the following criteria: 1) The selected team should have over 75% of the wins out of a minimum of 10 Head to Head meetings. 2) I will be using a score system to rate each teams 5 recent games to give a score between -5 and 20. The selected team should have at least a 5 point advantage over the other. 3) The selected team should be at home. I understand that due to its fairly strict criteria this system is not going to produce a huge number of selections but I am hoping that the selections that do get picked are of a high strike rate. The staking plan is still being decided but for the time being a 10% single stake will be made for each selection. This is subject to change and because of this the system is still paper trail. Starting Bank: 10 Points Feel free to comment :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strawb2 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Good luck mate will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 06/09/2013 - Friday The 1st selection is one of the World Cup Qualifiers on Friday. Germany have played Austria 18 times and have won 15 of these resulting in a 83% win rate. Their recent form is 5 points better than Austria's with 3 losses and 1 lose from 5 and they are at Home for this fixture. GERMANY v Austria @ 1.20 - Stake = 1 Point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes *Sorry - 3 wins and 1 loss from 5 for the above post :$ Have not edited post due to system/strategy rules Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dalkent Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes I have tried head to head as a factor in the past in some of my models and it seems to take too much time for there to be enough games between the two teams. The relative strength of the teams can fluctuate a lot over that period. Good luck though. I will watch with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Thanks dalkent :ok From recently playing around with this idea I have found the selections are fairly limited however more than I expected. The odds are usually nailed on as well which may slow the profit a little but what I'm aiming for is a high strike/win rate. In time I may increase stakes slightly if my confidence in the system builds. As they say, Nothing ventured nothing gained :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntliba Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes it is interesting system... but how you rate each team 5 last games? W = how many points? and so on..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes it is interesting system... but how you rate each team 5 last games? W = how many points? and so on..... Hi huntliba, the score is calculated by using two scoring methods and adding them together. I have found this extends the range of possible score results giving a clearer picture of that teams form more than using just one scoring. The two scoring's are Win = 3 points, Draw = 1 point, Lose = 0 points and Win = 1, Draw = 0, Lose = -1 which are then added together. So for this weeks selections the Scores would be worked out as follows: Germany - DLWWW - Score A = 10(1+0+3+3+3) + Score B = 2(0-1+1+1+1) = 12 Austria - LWDWL - Score A = 7 + Score B = 0 = 7 So Germany have a recent form score of 12 and Austria a score of 7 which equals what I have set as the minimum difference of 5. I have setup an excel sheet which calculates all the scores for me automatically to save time and this also calculates the percentage of H2H wins again to save time so most of the selection process is auto generated and parameters can be adjusted as needed I hope this makes a bit more sense :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 06/09/2013 - Friday The 1st selection is one of the World Cup Qualifiers on Friday. Germany have played Austria 18 times and have won 15 of these resulting in a 83% win rate. Their recent form is 5 points better than Austria's with 3 losses and 1 lose from 5 and they are at Home for this fixture. GERMANY v Austria @ 1.20 - Stake = 1 Point RESULT = 3-0 :loon Off to a winning start, a lack of selections over the weekend but will have a look for the days ahead shortly. Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 10.20 pts No of Bets: 1 No of Wins: 1 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 13/09/2013 - Saturday Three selections for Saturday... In the Estonia League Levadia have played Tammeka Tartu 35 times and have won the fixture 29 times giving them a 85% win rate. They have a whopping 21 points recent form score (WWWWW) over Tammeka Tartu (DLLLD). Levadia are also at home so looks to be a no brainer and a qualifying bet :) The second selection is within the Portuguese League. Benfica are playing Ferreira at Home winning the fixture 22 times from 28 (79% win rate). They have a 7 point advantage for the recent form scoring (DWLLL compared to LLLLL). The Final Section is for Anderlecht who are playing Mechelen at Home in the Belgium Jupiler League. They have a 6 point Recent form advantage over Mechelen (LWWWL and DWLDL respectively). They have also won 15 of the 20 fixtures giving them exactly 75% win rate. With the first win the stakes have now risen to 1.02 points (10% of Bank): LEVADIA v Takkeka Tartu @ 1.06 - Stake = 1.02 Points BENFICA v Ferreira @ 1.28 - Stake = 1.02 Points ANDERLECHT v Mechelen @ 1.36 - Stake = 1.02 Points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 14, 2013 Author Share Posted September 14, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 13/09/2013 - Saturday LEVADIA v Takkeka Tartu @ 1.06 - Stake = 1.02 Points 2-0 :loon BENFICA v Ferreira @ 1.28 - Stake = 1.02 Points 3-1 :loon ANDERLECHT v Mechelen @ 1.36 - Stake = 1.02 Points 5-0 :loon 3 out of 3 today to keep the 100% strike rate going :) Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 10.90 pts No of Bets: 4 No of Wins: 4 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Well done Scottj15 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 21, 2013 Author Share Posted September 21, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Thanks jtw1 :ok 21/09/2013 - Saturday I unfortunately missed analysis of the earlier games today but have one selection for this evening:In the Serbian Super Liga, Partizan Belgrade take on OFK Belgrade at Home. These two sides have played a total of 32 times and Partizan Belgrade have won 25 of these meetings giving them a 78% win rate. Looking at the 5 most recent games for each team Partizan Belgrade are 4 wins and 1 loss. OFK Belgrade are 2 wins and 3 losses. This gives Partizan Belgrade a 10 point advantage over their opponent today. As always stake now increased to 10% of bank... PARTIZAN BELGRADE v OFK Belgrade @ 1.18 - Stake = 1.09 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 22, 2013 Author Share Posted September 22, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 21/09/2013 - Saturday PARTIZAN BELGRADE v OFK Belgrade @ 1.18 - Stake = 1.09 points 2-0 :loon Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.09 pts No of Bets: 5 No of Wins: 5 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 22, 2013 Author Share Posted September 22, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 22/09/2013 - SundayJust one selection for this evening in the Venezuela Primera Division. Anzoategui take on Zulia at Home with 3 wins and 2 loses from the previous 5 matches. Zulia on the other hand are 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from the previous 5 matches giving Anzoategui a 6 point advantage. The head to head statistics just qualify with for the minimum of 10 matches (10 matches exactly) of which Anzoategui have won 8 and Zulia have won 2 giving the home team a 80% strike rate. ANZOATEGUI v Zulia @ 1.44 - Stake = 1.11 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 22, 2013 Author Share Posted September 22, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 22/09/2013 - Sunday ANZOATEGUI v Zulia @ 1.44 - Stake = 1.11 points 1-0 :loon Well they left it very late but a 93rd minute goal was enough to keep the 100% strike rate going :clap Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.58 pts No of Bets: 6 No of Wins: 6 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 23/09/2013 - Monday In the Lithuanian A Lyga today Suduva play Tauras at homes. Tauras are currently in bad form with 4 losses and 1 draw from the last 5. Suduva are looking better recently with 2 wins and 3 draws from the last 5. This gives Suduva a solid score advantage of 14 over Tauras. Head to Head both teams have played 18 times with Suduva winning 14. This gives them a win rate of 78% SUDUVA v Tauras @ 1.05 - Stake = 1.16 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 23, 2013 Author Share Posted September 23, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 23/09/2013 - Monday SUDUVA v Tauras @ 1.05 - Stake = 1.16 points 3-1 :loon :nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.64 pts No of Bets: 7 No of Wins: 7 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 24, 2013 Author Share Posted September 24, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 25/09/2013 - Wednesday One selection for Wednesday in the Bulgarian League. Levski take on Neftochimic Burgas at home. Levski have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Neftochimic Burgas on the other hand have lost all 5 of their most recent matches. Levski have therefore got a 17 point advantage. These two teams have gone head to head 18 times. Levski have won 14, drawn 3 and lost once. LEVSKI v Neftochimic Burgas @ 1.07 - Stake = 1.16 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 25, 2013 Author Share Posted September 25, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 25/09/2013 - Wednesday One selection for Wednesday in the Bulgarian League. Levski take on Neftochimic Burgas at home. Levski have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches. Neftochimic Burgas on the other hand have lost all 5 of their most recent matches. Levski have therefore got a 17 point advantage. These two teams have gone head to head 18 times. Levski have won 14, drawn 3 and lost once. LEVSKI v Neftochimic Burgas @ 1.07 - Stake = 1.16 points 6-0 :loon :nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.72 pts No of Bets: 8 No of Wins: 8 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 27/09/2013 - Friday One selection for Friday in the Portuguese League as FC Porto take on Guimaraes at home. Porto come into this game winning 4 of their previous 5 and drawing the other. Guimaraes have won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their most recent 5 matches. Porto therefore have a 10 point advantage. Head to Head Porto have won 26 of 33 matches giving them a 79% strike rate. PORTO v Guimaraes @ 1.18 - Stake = 1.17 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 27/09/2013 - Friday PORTO v Guimaraes @ 1.18 - Stake = 1.17 points 1-0 :D Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.93 pts No of Bets: 9 No of Wins: 9 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 27, 2013 Author Share Posted September 27, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 29/09/2013 - Saturday Bayern Munch take on Wolfsburg at Home. Bayern have won all of their 5 most recent matches. Wolfsburg have won 4 and lost one. This gives Bayern a 5 point advantage. These two teams have also played 34 times, Bayern winning 26 giving them a 76% strike rate. Valencia take on Vallecano at home. Valencia have won 3 and lost 2 of their most recent games. Vallecano have lost all 5 of their most recent. Valencia therefore have a 15 point advantage. Head to Head these two have played 12 times, Valencia winning 9 giving them a 75% strike rate. BAYERN MUNICH v Wolfsburg @ 1.17 - Stake = 1.19 pts VALENCIA v Vallecano @ 1.36 - Stake = 1.19 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 29/09/2013 - Saturday BAYERN MUNICH v Wolfsburg @ 1.17 - Stake = 1.19 pts 1-0 :loon VALENCIA v Vallecano @ 1.36 - Stake = 1.19 pts 1-0 :loon :nana Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 12.56 pts No of Bets: 11 No of Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 29/09/2013 - Sunday Just the one selection for Sunday. In the Cyprus First Division Anorthosis take on Doxa at Home. Anorthosis come into this game in good form with 4 wins and 1 loss from their 5 most recent games. Doxa on the other hand are in slightly poorer form with 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss from their last 5 matches. This gives Anorthosis a 6 point advantage through the scoring strategy. Head to head these two teams have met 20 times. Anorthosis have won 17 of these matches giving them an 85% strike rate. ANORTHOSIS v Doxa @ 1.25 - Stake = 1.25 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted September 29, 2013 Author Share Posted September 29, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 29/09/2013 - Sunday ANORTHOSIS v Doxa @ 1.25 - Stake = 1.25 pts 1-2 :( The winning streak comes to an end with a 1-2 defeat. Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.31 pts No of Bets: 12 No of Wins: 11 Strike Rate: 91.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNamara591 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 11 from 12, very impressive indeed, I was just wondering would you be able to make a good profit by taking your selection as 2 single bets as in -1 goal and also handicap draw, I was just wondering because you hit the winners that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes Thanks McNamara591 :ok Thats an interesting idea and something I may look into in the near future. The whole staking strategy is still under a lot of construction as the yield is quite slow even if consistent. I've got a few ideas for the staking which I'm going to start paper trailing along side this soon. Thanks for your comments :) Selections wise its been a bit dry this week. Mainly due to lack of games but also due to me working away a fair bit. No selections for tomorrow, hopefully the weekend action will throw up some more picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 04/10/2013 - Saturday Zalgiris take on Dainava Alytus at home tomorrow in the Lithuanian league. Zalgiris' last 5 games have resulted in 4 wins and 1 loss. Dainava Alytus on the other hand have won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1. This gives Zalgiris a 8 point advantage. The two teams have gone head to head 22 times. Zalgiris have won the fixture 20 times giving them a 91% win rate. ZALGIRIS v Dainava Alytus @ 1.03 - Stake = 1.13 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottj15 Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Re: 3 Key Attributes 04/10/2013 - Saturday ZALGIRIS v Dainava Alytus @ 1.03 - Stake = 1.13 pts 1-0 :loon Summary Starting Bank: 10 pts Current Bank: 11.34 pts No of Bets: 13 No of Wins: 12 Strike Rate: 92.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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