Form. For or against?

[only1woz]

I tested a system at the end of last season. In the last month really. The system is based on H2H form, where the home team must have supremacy. The odds must be at least 2.00 or higher too. If these two things happen, then it qualifies for a bet. I started with a 100pt bank, and using progressive stakes I had a bank of roughly 240 points at the end of the month with 25/41 winners. Now, I know it's only a short while testing so I thought I'd test it further at the start of this season. Results are very different so far. From an inital 20 games I have only 5 winners, which is WAY down from my previous test. The thing is, I've had 12/20 away wins in my new results, and the away wins are at a bit bigger odds than the homes. So now I'm wondering if, rather than going with the home teams for having good previous form, I should be going with the away sides to break the chain, as it were? Any thoughts folks?

[JohnPR]

Re: Form. For or against? You probably have not collected enough data yet to make a judgement as to the long term profitability of your system. Here is my P/L for the past year: [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]Month[/TD] [TD]P/L[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sep '12[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]6.76[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oct '12[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]24.92[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nov '12[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]-9.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dec '12[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]18.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jan '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]68.78[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feb '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]63.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mar '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]30.95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Apr '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]-74.84[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]May '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]-22.40[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jun '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]20.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Jul '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]32.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aug '13[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]22.82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl22][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Total[/TD] [TD=class: xl22, align: right]181.89[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] From the above figures I can be resonably confident that my model is working but if I would have taken only two consecutive months you can see there are many times I would have come to the conclusion that my model was failing and given up.

[Jase82]

I'd be more interested to know what the results were long term at the end of this season, or even mid way through this season. Also have you back tested it through other past seasons?

[only1woz]

Re: Form. For or against? Thanks guys. I haven't back-tested it, it would require more work than I have time for, unfortunately. But I have no problem with continuing to test it for the foreseeable future. Considering of the two seperate months I have been testing it both months have been pretty different, I'll probably keep a record of how both home and away perform and look at it again in a few months time. Interestingly the strike rate of 25/41 for the homes and 12/20 for the aways is almost identical. The aways have better odds (usually over 3.00) so would be more profitable if that was to continue. I knew I didn't have enough data to come to any real conclusion yet, I just wondered if anyone else had a definite opinion as to whether they preferred to go with, or against form. Thanks for the replies. Woz.