Xtc12 Posted August 15, 2014 Author Share Posted August 15, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Mr McLaren 14.30 Newcastle 1.5 Pts Win (2 Pts ) @ 5.0 (BOG) Winner of 2 of his 5 starts, most recently a 7f Thirsk handicap last month. 5 lb rise looks fair and merits plenty of respect with the likelihood of even better to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 16, 2014 Author Share Posted August 16, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Mr McLaren 14.30 Newcastle 1.5 Pts Win (2 Pts ) @ 5.0 (BOG) Winner of 2 of his 5 starts, most recently a 7f Thirsk handicap last month. 5 lb rise looks fair and merits plenty of respect with the likelihood of even better to come. 11th chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened entering final furlong Bets 318 Wins 68 Total Bet 586 Total Won 613.99 Profit 27.99 SR 21.70% ROI 4.78% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Akasaka 17.45 Dundalk 1 Pt Win (1 Pt) @ 7.0 (BOG) 10/1, good 2nd of 12 in handicap at the Curragh (7f, good to firm) 29 days ago, well positioned. Significantly up in trip. 6-time course winner. Looks competitive on form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Akasaka 17.45 Dundalk 1 Pt Win (1 Pt) @ 7.0 (BOG) 10/1, good 2nd of 12 in handicap at the Curragh (7f, good to firm) 29 days ago, well positioned. Significantly up in trip. 6-time course winner. Looks competitive on form. 10th chased leaders, 5th halfway, ridden in 8th 2f out, no impression Bets 319 Wins 68 Total Bet 587 Total Won 613.99 Profit 26.99 SR 21.31% ROI 4.59% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Ajig 17.00 Kempton 1 Pt Win (4 Pts) @ 7.0 (BOG) Didn’t need to improve to win 10-runner minor event at this course (8f, polytrack, 5/1) 13 days ago, pushed out. Entitled to remain competitive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Ajig 17.00 Kempton 1 Pt Win (4 Pts) @ 7.0 (BOG) Didn’t need to improve to win 10-runner minor event at this course (8f, polytrack, 5/1) 13 days ago, pushed out. Entitled to remain competitive. 5th outpaced in rear, headway over 2f out, soon chasing leaders, kept on same pace final furlong Bets 320 Wins 69 Total Bet 588 Total Won 613.99 Profit 25.99 SR 21.56% ROI 4.42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Tempuran 18.40 Worcester 3 Pts Win (5 Pts) @ 3.0 (BOG) Improved effort when opening hurdling account on return at Newton Abbot, and probably would have followed up on chase bow at Southwell had he not come to grief 4 out. Can make amends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smarty72 Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Any chance you could explain your staking system? I know the figure in brackets is the staking system from your other thread but how do you decide on stakes? Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Any chance you could explain your staking system? I know the figure in brackets is the staking system from your other thread but how do you decide on stakes? Regards Basically for this thread the staking strategy is as follows: Today I will look to bet on something at about 2\1 which will have a stake of 3 Pts, Win or Lose it will be the same tomorrow. (both odds and stake) This is followed by odds of 4\1 which will have a stake of 1.5 Pts, once again Win or Lose it will be the same the following day. Finally I try to pick a 6\1 winner with a stake of 1 Pt, which will apply again for two days. Next, start all over again. You may have noticed that for any winner the profit will be 6 points (depending on BOG) hence the thread "the state of being in equilibrium". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Tempuran 18.40 Worcester 3 Pts Win (5 Pts) @ 3.0 (BOG) Improved effort when opening hurdling account on return at Newton Abbot, and probably would have followed up on chase bow at Southwell had he not come to grief 4 out. Can make amends. 4th mid-division, headway on inside 4 out, soon ridden, no impression on leaders from last, no extra Bets 321 Wins 69 Total Bet 591 Total Won 613.99 Profit 22.99 SR 21.50% ROI 3.89% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Longshadow 15.55 Musselburgh 3 Pts Win (6 Pts) @ 3.0 (BOG) Three-time winner already this term, including over C&D in June. Fine third in a competitive handicap at Goodwood (21f) last time and makes plenty of appeal off the same mark here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Longshadow 15.55 Musselburgh 3 Pts Win (6 Pts) @ 3.0 (BOG) Three-time winner already this term, including over C&D in June. Fine third in a competitive handicap at Goodwood (21f) last time and makes plenty of appeal off the same mark here. 3rd tracked leader after 1f, effort over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace in 3rd inside final furlong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 21, 2014 Author Share Posted August 21, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Distant Past 18.50 Wolverhampton 1.5 Pts Win @ 5.5 (BOG) AW maiden winner on debut last term and best effort since switched to handicaps when runner-up at Haydock (5f) last month. Fair third at Newcastle latest, and not discounted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Distant Past 18.50 Wolverhampton 1.5 Pts Win @ 5.5 (BOG) AW maiden winner on debut last term and best effort since switched to handicaps when runner-up at Haydock (5f) last month. Fair third at Newcastle latest, and not discounted. 7th in touch, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened Bets 323 Wins 69 Total Bet 595.50 Total Won 613.99 Profit 18.49 SR 21.36% ROI 3.10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Lodgician 16.05 Ffos Las 1.5 Pts Win (8 Pts) @ 5.0 (BOG) Back in decent heart when placed 3 times of late, sticking to task when third at Newton Abbot (21f) last week. Major player if carrying on in same vein. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Lodgician 16.05 Ffos Las 1.5 Pts Win (8 Pts) @ 5.0 (BOG) Back in decent heart when placed 3 times of late, sticking to task when third at Newton Abbot (21f) last week. Major player if carrying on in same vein. 4th led, headed after 4th, led again 5th, headed after 8th, weakened from 5 out Bets 324 Wins 69 Total Bet 597 Total Won 613.99 Profit 16.99 SR 21.30% ROI 2.85% With New Strategy Bets 324 Wins 69 Total Bet 618 Total Won 635.24 Profit 17.24 SR 21.30% ROI 2.78% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Catchthemoonlight 17.55 Cartmel 1 Pt Win (9 Pts) @ 7.0 (BOG) Bst effort yet when third on handicap debut over 22f here last month, seemingly failing to stay for all her pedigree suggests otherwise. No surprise to see her drop in trip, and worth considering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Catchthemoonlight 17.55 Cartmel 1 Pt Win (9 Pts) @ 7.0 (BOG) Bst effort yet when third on handicap debut over 22f here last month, seemingly failing to stay for all her pedigree suggests otherwise. No surprise to see her drop in trip, and worth considering. 6th held up towards rear, headway after 5th, ridden from 2 out, no impression last Bets 325 Wins 69 Total Bet 598 Total Won 613.99 Profit 15.99 SR 21.23% ROI 2.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Living Leader 15.40 Goodwood 1 Pt Win (10 pts) @ 7.0 (BOG) Knocked on the door several times prior to getting the job done in emphatic fashion at Salisbury last month. Race may have come too soon when below par at Sandown 4 days later and needs considering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Living Leader 15.40 Goodwood 1 Pt Win (10 pts) @ 7.0 (BOG) Knocked on the door several times prior to getting the job done in emphatic fashion at Salisbury last month. Race may have come too soon when below par at Sandown 4 days later and needs considering. 3rd Bets 326 Wins 69 Total Bet 599 Total Won 613.99 Profit 14.99 SR 21.17% ROI 2.50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Civil Unrest 15.30 Cartmel 3 Pts (11) Win @ 3.0 (BOG) Improved last season, winning 4 times over hurdles/fences and back in good heart after a lull when twice placed in July. Likely to be thereabouts once more if continuing the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Civil Unrest 15.30 Cartmel 3 Pts (11) Win @ 3.0 (BOG) Improved last season, winning 4 times over hurdles/fences and back in good heart after a lull when twice placed in July. Likely to be thereabouts once more if continuing the trend. 3rd led, headed after 2nd, soon led again, headed before 7th, mistake next, outpaced after last Bets 327 Wins 69 Total Bet 602 Total Won 613.99 Profit 11.99 SR 21.10% ROI 1.99% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Captain Revelation 20.20 Wolverhampton 3 Pts (12) Win @ 2.88 (BOG) Promising type. 2nd of 7 in maiden at Southwell (6f, fibresand, 4/1) 19 days ago, rallying. Sets a solid standard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 26, 2014 Author Share Posted August 26, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Captain Revelation 20.20 Wolverhampton 3 Pts (12) Win @ 2.88 (BOG) Promising type. 2nd of 7 in maiden at Southwell (6f, fibresand, 4/1) 19 days ago, rallying. Sets a solid standard. 2nd made most, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, ran on, headed and no extra well inside final furlong Bets 328 Wins 69 Total Bet 605 Total Won 613.99 Profit 8.99 SR 21.04% ROI 1.49% Just can't buy a winner at the moment in this. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 27, 2014 Author Share Posted August 27, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Nelsons Bay 16.30 Carlisle 1.5 Pts (13) Win @ 5.0 (BOG) Has won just once but could be about to put that right judged on latest close second at Musselburgh, beaten only by a thriving one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 27, 2014 Author Share Posted August 27, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Nelsons Bay 16.30 Carlisle 1.5 Pts (13) Win @ 5.0 (BOG) Has won just once but could be about to put that right judged on latest close second at Musselburgh, beaten only by a thriving one. 8th Chased leaders, went 2nd 6f out until ridden over 2f out, weakened quickly, tailed off and eased final 2f Bets 329 Wins 69 Total Bet 606.5 Total Won 613.99 Profit 7.49 SR 20.97% ROI 1.23% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Nelsons Pride 17.20 Hamilton 1.5 Pts (14) Win @ 5.0 (BOG) Best effort yet when going close over 5f at Beverley last month. Disappointed at Leicester next time, but best forgiven latest effort (worst of the draw). Not discounted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 28, 2014 Author Share Posted August 28, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Nelsons Pride 17.20 Hamilton 1.5 Pts (14) Win @ 5.0 (BOG) Best effort yet when going close over 5f at Beverley last month. Disappointed at Leicester next time, but best forgiven latest effort (worst of the draw). Not discounted. 5th behind, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, kept on same pace final furlong Bets 330 Wins 69 Total Bet 608 Total Won 613.99 Profit 5.99 SR 20.91% ROI 0.99% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Green Howard 15.15 Thirsk 1 Pt (15) Win @ 7.0 (BOG) Successful from 2 lb lower mark last summer, and generally holding his form well this term, far from disgraced in fifth at Redcar (1m) earlier this month. Entitled to be thereabouts again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 Re: The state of being in equilibrium Green Howard 15.15 Thirsk 1 Pt (15) Win @ 7.0 (BOG) Successful from 2 lb lower mark last summer, and generally holding his form well this term, far from disgraced in fifth at Redcar (1m) earlier this month. Entitled to be thereabouts again. 1st @ 7.0 held up in mid-division, smooth headway on outside tracking leaders 2f out, hung left and led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, easily Bets 331 Wins 70 Total Bet 609 Total Won 620.99 Profit 11.99 SR 21.15% ROI 1.97% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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