Figuring out how a race will be run...

[scotty657]

Recently I have been trying think through how a race is likely to be run, and how the going and course characteristics will affect this. I have been looking at races from 7f - 2m and mainly 12 runner or less handicaps. What advice could the more experienced punters give for this? I gather if a race has a lot of horses which compete for the front, or chase the front, then it is likely to be a faster paced race. If a race has maybe 1 or 2 horses which like to be to the fore and several which like to sit back, it could be slower. But then you have to consider the going and course. Will softer ground suit a front runner more? Seeing as it's harder to gain distance on tough ground. Or will a horse trying to lead on soft ground run out of steam quicker? Endless race situations. I thought it would be good to add any pieces of information, or general thoughts on the subject in here.

[Trotter]

Re: Figuring out how a race will be run... It;s very tricky because the assumption is that horses will always run the same way and of course they don't, plus you have a jockey who has some input into how the horse runs Some horses will always front run, like Overturn maybe, because they pull and veer around if the jockey tries to hold them up. Most horses are more amenable to different racing styles What often happens is that if you have several front runners the jockeys will be aware of it and they'll all be waiting for the other front runners to set the pace, so paradoxically you can get a slow run race as they all hang back doing an 'After you, Claude' Soft ground.............I reckon suits front runners as does a turning track because both of those slow the field down and increase the chance of a 2 furlong sprint If a race turns into a 2 furlong sprint it suits the horses at the front as they might have a 10 yard start and they can decide when the race begins so catch the others by surprise. A 10 yard start is worth more over 2 furlongs than it is over a mile Basically the slower a front runner can go the better his chance. Alternatively i like to see a front runner who stays further than todays trip. In that scenario it doesn't really suit to slow them up and sprint for 2 furlongs because the specialists over the shorter trip will probably have more speed I like to see a 'staying' front running set a fast pace and draw the sting out of the opposition. Uphill finishes help these horses as well.