Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May

[Tedthewolf]

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Chester Cup Day Chester Cup Fact file

• Race distance: 2m 2 1/2f
• Prize money: £100,000 total prize fund
• Conditions: 4-y-o and up
• First run: 1824 (present title in 1893)

The Chester Cup was first run at Chester Racecourse in 1824 and amongst its winners it can boast such names as Brown Jack, Sea Pigeon and Top Cees. It is an early season test over the stamina sapping distance of two miles, two furlongs and 147 years and often features those who will be plying their trade in the Cup races later in the season. In recent years, the 2003 renewal was taken in fine style by James Given’s grand old campaigner Hugs Dancer. The previous year, he had won the equally demanding Ebor Handicap at York before finishing a gallant fifth in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket. He arrived at Chester after a winter break of over six months, but defied the absence to score impressively. The following year saw Anak Pekan gallop away from his sixteen rivals to record a very impressive five-length victory in the famous silks of HRH Sultan Ahmad Shah. Twelve months later he made it back-to-back successes, becoming the first horse to achieve the feat since Sea Pigeon in 1977 and 1978. Anak Pekan - 2004 winner There was somewhat of a shock in 2006 when the 28/1 outsider Admiral took victory, but normal service was pretty much resumed the following year when Greenwich Meantime took the spoils under jockey Paul Hanagan. Although sent off at 14/1 he wasn’t without his supporters and denied the well backed favourite Fair Along by one-and-a-half lengths. The winner was no stranger to this race having previously finished third behind Admiral, albeit from a 10lb lower handicap mark. The improvement he made in 12 months saw him notch a victory at Ayr before running a fine race in defeat when third in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. It was that performance that indicated he could well improve on his placing in 2006 and he duly obliged under a fine ride, taking up the running in the final furlong. Interestingly, he not only overcame a horror draw in stall 16 but the winning time of 3:58.89 was a course record for the race. Admiral - 2006 winner Three years ago Bulwark caused another shock as Ian Williams’ charge got the better of Som Tala by half-a-length at odds of 33/1 under a fine ride from Jim Crowley for his first win in almost two years. But the last few years have gone the way of more well-fancied runners with Daraahem and Mamlook both obliging at odds of 7/1. Daraahem held off Ajaan by a neck in 2009 for Barry and Richard Hills, while the David Pipe-trained Mamlook, the 7/1 market leader ridden by Richard Hughes, came out on top by a head from Tastahill in a thrilling finish which saw the first five covered by less than two lengths. Daraahm - 2009 winner Historical Background The Chester Cup started its life as the Tradesman’s Cup back in 1824 when it was first run. Originally, the Stand Cup was the feature race of Chester’s May meeting, when this was the only fixture held each year on the Roodee. However, the Tradesman’s Cup quickly became the feature race of the meeting in the mid 1800’s before its name was changed to the Chester Cup in 1893. Race History As the longest race run at Chester with the biggest field each year, the Chester Cup is the highlight of the year. Although many horses have famously won the race twice, no horse has ever won three times. The horses that have won the race twice; Rainbow High, Top Cees, Anak Pekan and the Champion Hurdler Sea Pigeon have particularly fired the imaginations of racegoers. The extreme distance of the race means that many top hurdlers change code, following in Sea Pigeon’s footsteps. Past Winners

• 1999 Rainbow High 4 9-00 Michael Hills Barry Hills 4:00.64
• 2000 Bangalore 4 7-10 Gary Bardwell Amanda Perrett 4:03.00
• 2001 Rainbow High 6 9-13 Richard Hughes Barry Hills 4:01.23
• 2002 Fantasy Hill 6 8-09 Pat Eddery John Dunlop 4:00.20
• 2003 Hugs Dancer 6 8-11 Dean McKeown James Given 4:04.89
• 2004 Anak Pekan 4 8-02 Philip Robinson Michael Jarvis 4:10.90
• 2005 Anak Pekan 5 9-06 Philip Robinson Michael Jarvis 4:14.60
• 2006 Admiral 5 8-04 John Egan Tim Pitt 4:03.34
• 2007 Greenwich Meantime 7 9-02 Paul Hanagan Richard Fahey 3:58.99
• 2008 Bulwark 6 9-04 Jim Crowley Ian Williams 4:06.57
• 2009 Daraahem 4 9-00 Richard Hills Barry Hills 4:04.01
• 2010 Mamlook 6 8-12 Richard Hughes David Pipe 4:37.40
• 2011 Overturn 7 8-13 Eddie Ahern Donald McCain 3.59.39
• 2012 Ile de Re 6 8-11 Jim Crowley Donald McCain 4.10.20

Chivalrous - Winner of the Chester Cup, 1922-23 Countrywide Flame (5), Justification (6), Montaser (10), Simenon (10), Ile de Re (11), Tominator (11), Olympiad (12), Buckland (16), Investissement(16), Perennial (16), Thimaar (16), Address Unknown (20), Good Morning Star (25), Ingleby Spirit (25), Suraj (25), Very Good Day (25), Kiama Bay(33), Theology (33), Softsong (40) 2013 Chester Cup 1st May 2013Established way back in 1824, the Chester Cup is a truly historic horse race won by some briliant horses, including the famous Sea Pigeon (pictured). But who in 2013 will add their name to the long list of winners? Check out our preview of theStanJames.com Chester Cup and you might just find out… We’ve brought our usual trends based approach to the 2013 Chester Cup, building up a profile of exactly what it takes to win this Heritage Handicap. Here are the key Chester Cup trends: Key Trends Age

• All of the last 27 Chester Cup winners were aged 4 to 6
• 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 to 6
• 6 of the last 12 winners were aged 6

We can comfortably eliminate any horses aged seven or older from our Chester Cup shortlist based on these trends. We might also give a nod towards the six year olds if there’s a tough choice to be made. Official Rating / Handicap Mark

• 10 of the last 12 Chester Cup winners were officially rated between 90 and 103
• 10 of the last 12 winners carried 8st 9lbs or more

These two Chester Cup trends are fairly self explanatory. Ability

• 11 of the last 12 Chester Cup winners had won over 2m or further
• 9 of the last 12 winners had landed a Class 2 race or better

To win the 2013 Chester Cup, our selection is going to need proven stamina as all of the last 12 winners had won over 14f or further, with the vast majority clocking up 2m successes prior to the race. Furthermore, the trends suggest that we should prefer those beasts that have already tasted victory in better company. Fitness

• 9 of the last 12 winners of the Chester Cup were making their first appearance of the season

It might seem counter-intuitive, but there is a strong tendency towards horses having their first run of the flat season. All of the last 8 winners tick this box. Tactics

• 10 of the last 12 Chester Cup heroes raced prominently

Only two hold-up horses have managed to win the Chester Cup in recent times. The layout of Chester Racecourse tends to favour prominent types.

[Primevil]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May How they wish the race was run today. My Advice. Its Good/Firm watered ground, Of all the courses in the country, it dont take much rain to go to soft here, due to the soil. From about 9pm tonight various outbreaks of rain, right through to Thursday. It will be soft/heavy by Thursday, that is for sure, but come 2.45pm on Wednesday,,,,all i'll say is it definately wont be Good/Firm. The ground will be key here, so hold your money until you know.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May On the BHA website it says they are expecting 1mm of rain overnight followed by a dry cloudy day with sunny spells... Hopefully that stays the case!

[Primevil]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Rain forcast between 8am - 12 noon, we wont know how much till then, I hope its not alot, however Thursday is a WASH OUT!

[bowles10]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Chester Cup - Wednesday - based on g/Firm going though!! Age In the last 15 years, four 4yo's, two 5yo's, six 6yo's three 7yo's have won the race showing its an open race to all ages. 2 of the 4yo's have gone onto win it again in thier career. Weight A wide range of weights from 8st 1lb to 9st 13lb. 9st 2lb or under have won 12 from 15. No jockey with a claim has won it in the last 12 years. Draw Single figure draws have won 10 from last 15, however Greenwich Meantime was drawn 16 of 17 in 07 & Bulwark 11 of 17 in 08 and ile de re 13 of 16 last year. SP Favs have won 3 of last 13 , 9/2-16/1 or under seems to be the limit as 13 of last 15 have won within that range. Form The last 15 winners were either making their debut or had had 1 run that season. In fact the split of those was 9 (debut) and 6 (1 run). 6 of these winners had ran in the Chester cup before with 3 of them 3rd or better in previous year.Dont be put off by horses making their 1st visit to the track Distance 11 of the last 15 had won previously over 16f or further, the other 4 having won over 10f, 12f, 13f & 14f. Class 12 of the last 15 winners had won a class 3 handicap or better. LAst 3 years winners were dual campaigners over hurdles and flat. Summary No over 7's this year Next we take out those who have had more than 1 run this season to date which removes Buckland (1) Remove horses ridden by apprentices - Investissment, Ingleby spirit, Kiama bay (3) The class wins & distance wins takes out Theology, Suraj, Justification, Good morning star (4) Lets look at the weight, draw and course form of those left: Simenon - drawn 14 won at R Ascot twice last year, debut on track Thimaar - drawn 6, 5yo, debut on track, highest OR win 89 Ile de re - last years winner, draw 16, 12lb higher, prefers a bit of cut Tominator - draw 11, 3rd in cesarewitch and won here in september, now switched to Jonjo for hurdling Softsong - draw 19, mainly race on soft Address unknown - 12th in this last year, won at ascot off 94, draw 2 Olympiad draw 17 won at York last year very good day draw 13 debut on track won at york last year Countrywide flame, drawn 4, won here last year and 2nd in cesarewitch, 10 on the shortlist, we should look at the draw as i still believe low numbers should be favoured even over this trip. Also course form should be taken into consideration so the following for me: Address unknown 10pts win @ 16/1 >Betvictor Countrywide flame 10pts win @ 4/1 >Betvictor

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May The booking of Kieron Fallon (who is riding really well at present) by trainer Mick Channon for VERY GOOD DAY 22/1 looks interesting. Owner would love to win this race and he has multiple runner in it this year. VGD was disappointing lto but better ground today will suit had a win & 2nd over 2 milles at York last year, mark of 92 is ok and i can see this horse go well at a cracking price. Of the other hard to say anything bad about the Fav Countrywide Flame who is a class act over hurdles will take all the beating also think top weight Irish stayer Simeon has a real good chance their my 3 against the field.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Countrywide Flame at 7/2 vc, gutted to have missed 4's. I'm really quite confident on this one for a change. If the ground turns, it'll favour him more, and the horse is no stranger to making all. A favourable draw, and to my mind his closest competitor Simenon is burdened with a big weight. The trip we know for near certain isn't a concern, and the match practice might see a few of these struggling. Will be very disappointed if it fails to at least put in a respectable show and place. If it runs well, it should go close. Finally, as Overturn shown, there's form in the book for a hurdler coming home with this recently. Struggling to pick many holes in the form, other than the track may prove too sharp. That however, I'm prepared to take on trust.

[bowles10]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May expect, the last 3 winners have been hurdlers and from NH trainers, so good vibes for Countrywide flame in that respect also a guaranteed front runner

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Better still haha

[Aidymac]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Countrywide Flame all day long for me, if he produces anywhere near his best he should win this comfortably, is far better than any other horse in this field. I backed him each-way for the Champion Hurdle @ 18/1 on course, and he ran a screamer in 3rd, has bags of speed and stamina over this trip. I see Tominator as the big danger personally.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May [h=2]Dry day expected at Chester[/h] Clerk Andrew Morris says the track had just 1mm of rain this morning. He added: "It's now stopped raining [at 7am] and that should hopefully be all of the rain. We had just 1mm from 5am and it's still good to firm all round."(15 mins ago)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May [h=3]Latest odds... Favourites:[/h] Countrywide Flame (7/2), Justification (9/2), Tominator (11), Buckland (12), Simenon (12), Olympiad (14) , Address Unknown (16), Ile de Re (16), Investissement (16), Theology (16), Thimaar (20), Very Good Day (22), Ingleby Spirit (25), Good Morning Star (28), Suraj (28), Kiama Bay (33), Softsong (50)

[Primevil]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May The odd shower is not out of the question, However Good ground should be the call, with Good to Firm around the place. The rail is set on the inside all the way round today. Very significant in the last 1 1/2 furlongs. Two things to be aware of for tomorrow n friday, The rain is really set to come in after a dry overnight and morning. Plus they will move the rail tomorrow,

[cpo]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May I would absolutely love Buckland to win this but it's hard to look past Countrywide Flame.

[Aidymac]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May

How they wish the race was run today. My Advice. Its Good/Firm watered ground, Of all the courses in the country, it dont take much rain to go to soft here, due to the soil. From about 9pm tonight various outbreaks of rain, right through to Thursday. It will be soft/heavy by Thursday, that is for sure, but come 2.45pm on Wednesday,,,,all i'll say is it definately wont be Good/Firm. The ground will be key here, so hold your money until you know.

Ground is good to firm.

[Primevil]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May

Ground is good to firm.

At 11:48 yes. Black clouds all around the Chester area from 1pm onwards, so the chance of rain at some point is still there. However better to be safe than sorry. 10-15 mils forecast between 11am - 4pm on Thursday.

[THE % MAN]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Hi Tedthewolf Before the season started I headlined a thread HERITAGE HANDICAPS but if this thread of yours will be including ALL THESE RACES I will not update my thread in future as theirs no point If that's not the case will continue to run mine T%M

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Well. What do I know? haha

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Well done Bowles, fair play. Anyone else think Ingelby Spirit should have got a lot closer/won. The ride given doesnt look up to much, doesnt reach for the whip until deep into the final furlong where the horse finds for the pressure. Seems to stop riding almost a couple of times, trying to switch the whip I think? Will need to see it again but those were my initial thoughts.

[bowles10]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May well pleased with that one as it wa hard to break down the shortlist i had but the owner swayed me a bit as well as i know he loves to win here.

[benreado]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Exactly the same profile as last years winner. First run for a good trainer after leaving Ian Williams yard. Easy to find and a decent price! These long distance races are the only flat races I can pick the winner.

[bowles10]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May

Exactly the same profile as last years winner. First run for a good trainer after leaving Ian Williams yard. Easy to find and a decent price! These long distance races are the only flat races I can pick the winner.

easy to find, not sure about that but i think i know what you mean

[benreado]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May

easy to find' date=' not sure about that but i think i know what you mean[/quote'] "Easy" is the wrong word tbf. Picking the winner in the Chester Cup or any competitive 16+ runner handicap is never easy. And of course it's easy to say in hindsight but the animal had form over a similar trip, loves fast ground, for a trainer that excels at this meeting and first time away from Ian Williams - which means its probably well handicapped. Won exactly the same staying race for Ian Williams at Ascot as Ille De Re did for the same trainer before going into winning this race last year. Almost identical profiles.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May Good stuff Bowlesy:clap

[Primevil]

Re: Key Races~ CHESTER CUP 8th May

Chester Cup - Wednesday - based on g/Firm going though!! Age In the last 15 years, four 4yo's, two 5yo's, six 6yo's three 7yo's have won the race showing its an open race to all ages. 2 of the 4yo's have gone onto win it again in thier career. Weight A wide range of weights from 8st 1lb to 9st 13lb. 9st 2lb or under have won 12 from 15. No jockey with a claim has won it in the last 12 years. Draw Single figure draws have won 10 from last 15, however Greenwich Meantime was drawn 16 of 17 in 07 & Bulwark 11 of 17 in 08 and ile de re 13 of 16 last year. SP Favs have won 3 of last 13 , 9/2-16/1 or under seems to be the limit as 13 of last 15 have won within that range. Form The last 15 winners were either making their debut or had had 1 run that season. In fact the split of those was 9 (debut) and 6 (1 run). 6 of these winners had ran in the Chester cup before with 3 of them 3rd or better in previous year.Dont be put off by horses making their 1st visit to the track Distance 11 of the last 15 had won previously over 16f or further, the other 4 having won over 10f, 12f, 13f & 14f. Class 12 of the last 15 winners had won a class 3 handicap or better. LAst 3 years winners were dual campaigners over hurdles and flat. Summary No over 7's this year Next we take out those who have had more than 1 run this season to date which removes Buckland (1) Remove horses ridden by apprentices - Investissment, Ingleby spirit, Kiama bay (3) The class wins & distance wins takes out Theology, Suraj, Justification, Good morning star (4) Lets look at the weight, draw and course form of those left: Simenon - drawn 14 won at R Ascot twice last year, debut on track Thimaar - drawn 6, 5yo, debut on track, highest OR win 89 Ile de re - last years winner, draw 16, 12lb higher, prefers a bit of cut Tominator - draw 11, 3rd in cesarewitch and won here in september, now switched to Jonjo for hurdling Softsong - draw 19, mainly race on soft Address unknown - 12th in this last year, won at ascot off 94, draw 2 Olympiad draw 17 won at York last year very good day draw 13 debut on track won at york last year Countrywide flame, drawn 4, won here last year and 2nd in cesarewitch, 10 on the shortlist, we should look at the draw as i still believe low numbers should be favoured even over this trip. Also course form should be taken into consideration so the following for me: Address unknown 10pts win @ 16/1 >Betvictor Countrywide flame 10pts win @ 4/1 >Betvictor

VWD Sir