Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May

[StuSimmy]

15:10 Newmarket

Decent looking class 2 handicap this with several lining up holding good claims. The one I like best is one of the 4 year olds in the race and that is Sir Michael Stoute's

Ladyship

. Although she has only won the one race from seven so far, I feel there will be more to come from this lightly raced filly. She made her debut over course and distance in 2011 as a 2 year old where she finished 3/13 although she was well beaten. She then appeared at Windsor in another maiden race where she was 2/16 before being put away for the winter. Five efforts as a 3 year old last year where she had form of 31292. It appeared as if she needed the run on her reappearance at Leicester as she was well beaten despite finishing 3rd, the extra furlong that day and the slightly soft conditions may have also been against her. She then went on to win at Leicester back over 6 furlongs before entering handicap company off a mark of 86 in a hot handicap at Ascot where she was defeated by the narrowest of margins (a nose). She battled on gamely after being headed but just failed to get back up on the line. The third placed in the race was a further 4 and a half lengths behind so the front 2 were clear of the remainder. She was hit with a rise of 6lbs for that effort and was again tried over 7 furlongs at York on her next appearance. Finished 9/13 that day but despite that, was only beaten 5 and a half lengths. It looked clear that she didn't appreciate the extra furlong and was then dropped back down to 6 furlongs once again on her latest appearance which came over today's course and distance where she finished a decent 2nd place. She is raised 4lbs for that effort today but I expect this is a mark she will be winning off before possibly going up to listed level. Another positive note is that the trainer also won with two similar profiled horses on Saturday, one at Goodwood and one at Doncaster, one of which was making their seasonal reappearance.

2pt win Ladyship @ 6/1 (

willhill

- BOG)

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May 2:20 Salisbury: Castilo Del Diablo 1pt win 13/2 William Hill & Mysterious Man 1pt win 9/1 Ladbrokes Castilo Del Diablo looks to be a horse very much on an upward curve. The going should not be an issue as he has won nicely on a firmish surface at Newmarket. And he signed off last season with a pleasing win at Kempton. This extra distance looks likely to suit and he looks still to be on a handy mark. Similar comments can be said about Mysterious Man. He wws even considered good enough for a crack at a Group Two last back end yet lines up here off eighty four. Andrew Balding does pretty well here and with Jimmy Fortune in the plate a good run looks on the cards. 2:35 Newmarket: Dank 1pt win 6/1 Ladbrokes With Sir Michael Stoute's record in this race anything he runs has to be respected. Dank looked to be progressing well last season and if she can pick up the thread again this year, Dank should go close. Sir Michael has his yard flying at the moment and Ryan Moore jets back from America and is in the saddle. 3:50 Newmarket: Ollie Olga 1pt win 59/1 & 1pt place 8/1 Betfair Ollie Olga was found to be in season when she ran in the Fillies Mile in September last year and trailed in last. However, prior to that run she had put up some very solid results winning the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood and beating Sky Lantern in the process. Ollie Olga also won her two previous outings. Ollie Olga would surely be much shorter in the betting if she has trained on, and particularly if the being in season was the complete explanation for that loss. At the price she looks worth chancing and could go well in a race which has thrown up a few shocks in recent times.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May 2.05 Newmarket - 1pt win Apache @ 16/1 (VC) Jane Chapple-Hyam's runner really catches the eye here at a nice price as he's joined the yard from Aidan O'Brien - for whom he showed plenty of useful form back in 2011. Unfortunately didn't see the racetrack in 2012 but shaped as if he hadn't lost his ability on his recent return at Lingfield. He travelled well and held every chance up the straight but just backed out of things. The race was good (won by Universal who has franked the form nicely) and he's sure to come on plenty for that and we just have to hope he doesn't 'bounce'. Back in 2011 he was a very good 3rd over 1m6f at York in a very hot handicap off 5lbs higher when travelling well but just not getting home. On that evidence the drop back to 1m4f is very much in his favour and he also gets his ideal quick surface. If this race came off the back of that run he'd be much shorter than 16/1 and although substantial time has passed since then, he shaped very well last time and looks capable of getting involved - especially as he's one of few horses here to have had a recent run. 3.10 Newmarket - 1pt win Hitchens @ 15/2 (VC) Posted this before his latest run:

3.30 Doncaster - 1pt win Hitchens @ 16/1 (VC) David Barron's runner isn't exactly being well punted today but at 16/1 can't be left alone as he has plenty of class and runs off what may prove to be a fair mark. Last season he ran well in plenty of group and listed races including a victory at the latter level at Newbury. He was running pretty well in Meydan a few weeks ago before returning to this c&d for his first run of the turf campaign on these shores. He was beaten less than 3l by Jack Dexter but the ground was soft which is far from ideal. He loves to hear his hooves rattle so the sound surface here will suit much better. Is drawn in the middle which is probably a good thing and he's got the touch of class that can see him go very close.

Ran right up to form that day to be 3rd in a good race. He travelled powerfully with Graham Gibbons having to take a pull on him with a couple of furlongs to race so I was confident he was going to deliver a stern challenge but ultimately he just couldn't quite reach the front pair. Wasn't beaten far at all, though, and today's ground looks set to be even quicker which will suit again. Richard Hughes is an obvious plus jumping into the saddle for a yard where he's 2-9 and looks an ideal rider for this horse. Ought to go close once more. 3.50 Newmarket - 2pts win What A Name @ 5/1 (VC) Quite a few in with chances here, which is quite a contrast with the 2000 Guineas betting but I'm really keen on the French raider here who looks to hold every chance of taking the price back over the channel - as it has been done a couple of times in recent years. She has done nothing wrong in her five career starts and the fact she's seen the track that amount of times has to be a plus over the inexperienced yet talented Hot Snap. She looks uncomplicated and knows what she's doing and I'd be surprised if she didn't run her race. I'm quietly confident that will be enough to take this race, however, as she has some top form also. She hacked up by seven lengths on the back of her promising debut and then was a nice winner of a Group 3 - taking on the colts - and again traded blows with the boys in a Group 1 event won by leading Irish 2000 Guineas fancy Olympic Glory. That one got first run on the heavy ground that day but the filly kept going well for 2nd and it's possible she'll be better on a sound surface. That piece of form alone gives her a fine chance back amongst her own sex and there was plenty to like about her prep run for the classic tomorrow. They went a farcical gallop and she was caught short of room when they dashed for home yet she still managed to get clear and pick up well to get a neck ahead at the line to win a shade cosily. Is much better than the bare result there and now should be spot on for this. She's 2-2 on ground described as good so I'm not concerned about the quick surface and she holds every chance here. 5.35 Newmarket - 3pts win Soviet Rock @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes) Very sweet on the chances of Andrew Balding's progressive gelding here who looks capable of defying a 9lb rise in the weights I think. There are a few in with form chances here but High Troja will find this much trickier than its Leicester success and Carry on Sydney should run well but doesn't look to have the potential progression of my selection. He was beaten 50 lengths on debut when having no idea what he was meant to be doing but naturally improved on that to be beaten 4 3/4l by leading Derby fancy Telescope on his next start over a mile. He got outpaced that day but plugged on as if a stiffer test or a more positive ride would be more suitable. He was made more use of next time on heavy ground at York when leading before rallying once headed to win a decent if not spectacular maiden. Looked like 1m2f would be ideal on that evidence and his recent reappearance proved he'd more than trained on when a taking winner over this c&d. He was given an enterprising ride by David Probert but the runner-up had the chance to go past him but my selection battled on well with the front three clear. The 2nd and 3rd look nice types with the 3rd running well off 3lbs higher next time out so I think that form is solid. With that run under his belt, his fitness should be better here for a yard whose runners often need a run and although he's 9lbs higher I think there's more to come and that was a hot race that he won here. There's no other guaranteed front-runner in the field so he shouldn't be compromised by being on the front-end. Represents a yard in very good form and who tend to thrive with 3yos. Big chance of taking another step forward.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May

3.10 Newmarket: Timeform “European Champion 2yo” Harbour Watch Handicap (Class 2)(6f) This looks wide open and any one of half a dozen can be given a live chance, my idea of the winner is Hamza after his fourth at Doncaster last month, that should have put him spot on and gets his ground here. I expect him to set for home early on and prove hard to catch. Both Ladyship who has plenty of scope and Gabriels Lad look best of the rest with the latter looking the most attractive alternative. Selections: 2pts Hamza 13/2

>Paddy Power 1pt Gabriels Lad 7/1 >Betfred

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-hamza-will-be-hard-to-catch-in-newmarket-sunday-sprint-20130505

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Newmarket 3.50pm - 1000 Guineas Rasmeyaa reportedly needs this better ground and is thought to be a decent sort. She is sired by New Approach and we have just seen Dawn Approach take the 2000 Guineas. She was 3^rd on debut but learnt plenty and then won a maiden in October by 5 ½ lengths. The horses in 2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th and 6^th have all won since so that was not a bad race at all. She should get a mile without any concern and could be the one to spring a surprise. Selections: 1pt EW - Rasmeyaa 12-1 >William Hill (BOG) 1pt WIN – Just The Judge 15-2 Coral (BOG) Race Preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-rasmeyaa-to-land-the-1000-guineas-for-weld-and-smullen-20130505

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Newmarket 2.35pm - Dahlia Stakes Thistle Bird is by Selkirk and should have no problems with the extra furlong and also likes fast ground, having won on firm twice. She has raced over 10f before and weakened in the final furlong so this 9f trip could be ideal. She ran on well here when beaten by Chigun but took a while to get going and Chigun won that well over the shorter trip. Thistle Bird looks the one likely to be most suited by the step up in trip out of these two and the use of the hood seemed to improve the horse from June onwards. Race Preview here:http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-thistle-bird-to-reverse-form-with-chigun-and-land-the-dahlia-stakes-20130505 Selection: 2pts WIN – Thistle Bird 7-2 Bet365 (BOG)

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May 15.50 Newmarket: Moth @ 10/1 Betfair - 1pt win Backed the Ballydoyle filly already ante-post some weeks ago and still like her very much. Moth was hugely impressive at the Curragh on her seasonal reappearance when getting off the mark at the third time of asking. She really showed a cracking turn of foot coming off the pace in a slowly run race that day, while travelling like a dream on the bridle until almost 1f out. This race doesn't look too bad with the horse finishing in fourth winning a maiden subsequently by 7 lengths. There is obviously loads of stamina in Moth's pedigree as a Galileo daughter but her dam is by Seattle Slew whose offspring was most successful over distances up to 1m and who is himself a Grade 1 winner over this trip (even though won over much further as well of course). So there is a chance from a pedigree point of view that 1m is very much within her range - even though further distances as well. So the step up to 1m is definitely in her favour anyway as well as the good ground at Newmarket tomorrow. 17.00 Newmarket: Magic of Reality @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win Quite a step up in class for this filly as she raced only once in a maiden around two weeks ago at Newbury. She was pretty green that day, made life difficult for Tom Queally in the saddle and lost position in a vital part of the race. It was massively encouraging to see though how she picked up again from 2f out until she found herself very much short or room over half a furlong out however. She should have learned plenty from this experience and it looks as if she has loads of ability. She is nicely bred anyway and thought to be an Oaks contender. She has some other Group 1 entries as well and if she's really up to that class then she should be well able to beat the opposition in this listed race.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May

2.20 Salisbury: Betfred City Bowl Handicap (Class 3) (1m6f) A terrific renewal of this staying handicap and lots of clues for the future should be learnt here. Plenty of unexposed 4yo’s in the line up from top yards mixing it with a couple of older horses who are proven at the trip like Seaside Sizzler and The Betchworth Kid. I fully expect one of the younger brigade to come out on top this time and fancy Sun Central from the Haggas yard. He looked pretty progressive before bombing out at Ascot when nothing went right and looks well handicapped on a mark of 92. The Simcock horse Castilo Del Diablo has a similar profile and could be the main danger. Selections: 2pts Sun Central 11/2

>BetVictor 1pt Castilo Del Diablo 13/2 >William Hill

Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/salisbury-betting-progressive-sun-central-can-take-the-city-bowl-at-salisbury-20130505

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Some cracking work going on in here guys:clap Lets hope we get some winners!

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May *Chigun > Newmarket 2:35 > WIN @ 7/2 VC BOG* Very game front runner that has won 2 on the bounce. Has won at this course, and I won't forget the time the horse won at Salisbury by 10 lengths, albeit that was a Class 5 race. Hosed up at Ascot two starts back and last time out saw off Thistle Bird very gamely and should be hard to pass again tomorrow. *Sky Lantern > Newmarket 3:50 > WIN @ 10/1 StanJames BOG* Yes, Hot Snap beat Sky Lantern last time out. I still don't think the Hannon horse should be a 10/1 shot. This horse is still a Group 1 winner which was at the Curragh and won with a lot of authority. Different tactics will be employed tomorrow by Hughesie and for me he won't be caught out like he was last time out. Hot Snap is a quality horse, but I think they are definitely underestimating the Hannon horse here. Looks a great each way bet, but I'll go win for this thread. *Cruck Realta > Newmarket 5:00 > WIN @ 5/1 Betfred BOG* Very consistent filly, hardly ever out of the frame. Was 2nd in The Chesham to Tha'ir in a Listed race and a repeat of that run would see the horse win this race in my opinion. Won at Salisbury twice, seems to be a gutsy horse and responds well to pressure. A few unexposed horses running against mine, but I am hoping she puts her experience to good use here.

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May 2.05 Newmarket: Silver Lime, 8/1 BetVictor, win Silver Lime is having his first run of the season today. He finished last season with a third place in a heritage handicap at Ascot, finishing 1½L behind Ahzeemah, who has since run very well in four races at Meydan. He was also 1L behind the re-opposing Stencive but is two pounds better off at the weights and has a better record going fresh so he should reverse that form. He started last season with a short head second in a decent class 3 handicap at Goodwood and during the season he won after a 70 day break. Today's ground and distance will suit. Trainer Roger Charlton has a good record here and James Doyle, who has won on this horse before, is in the saddle. 2.35 Newmarket: Thistle Bird, 7/2 Bet365, win Thistle Bird is having her first start of the season today. Lto she was beaten ¼L by the re-opposing Chigun but there is a four pound swing in the weights today and she should reverse that form. She won three of her other four starts last season. The three wins were all at today's level while the defeat was in a group 2 where she finished second, beaten just a neck by Premio Loco. She won fto last season and I think she has a great chance of doing the same this season. Trainer Roger Charlton has a good record here. Talented jockey James Doyle is in the saddle. He has won on this horse 3 times from 4 rides. 3.50 Newmarket: Just The Judge, 15/2 Coral, win Just The Judge is unbeaten in three starts. She has been very impressive in all three runs and she should have more to come. She won a group 2 lto over 7f on this course. A few subsequent winners have come out of that race. Before that she won a listed race at Newbury impressively. She was held up in fifth of the five runners and settled nicely. She was switched to the outside to mount a challenge about 3f out. She got level with the leaders under a hands and heels ride about 1f out and with a couple of cracks of the whip she ran on strongly to win by an eased length. That was run on similar ground to what she will get today. Third place that day has since had a hat trick which was completed with a listed race success a few days ago. The form of her maiden has worked out quite well. She steps up in trip to tackle a mile for the first time today. It should suit as she has finished all three races strongly and she is a full sister to a mile winner and is closely related to a group 1 winner over a mile. Trainer Charlie Hills is in good form and his 3yo's are having a great start to the season. Jamie Spencer takes over from the retired Michael Hills in the saddle, which is a big plus for me.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Again, some good racing from Newmarket but I think betting opportunities are limited from that meeting, with my initial fancy in Fennell Bay being tipped by Pricewise. I’ve found one selection that I feel to be incorrectly priced, and although quite short, I believe it should be a strong favourite. That horse is Sun Central, who bombed out on his last start in 2012 but had previously looked like a very progressive animal. That aforementioned run had plenty of excuses and came in a strong heat, and he’s almost certain to improve for the step up to 1m6f, so he looks a good bet today with the strong support for Mysterious Man ensuring a decent price is available on our charge. The William Haggas trained 4yo is lightly-raced with only six starts to date, winning two of them. On his penultimate outing, he ran a good field in a Shergar Cup race over 1m4f at Ascot ragged, winning by one length and looking like an obvious candidate to improve further when stepped up in trip. He didn’t show anything on his last start in 2012, but was drawn wide and had to use up a lot of energy to get into a fair racing position, so I think you can excuse it. Sun Central hasn’t yet run at 1m6f but looks suited to the trip, having the physical attributes of a constant galloper and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree too. He’s beautifully bred and is surely better than a 92 rated horse, especially based on his first Ascot performance and other starts on his 2012 campaign. Fitness has to be taken on trust and due to his size, it’s plausible it may take him time to get fit. That being said, the William Haggas stable are in very good form of late, having had seventeen runners in the past two weeks, with seven winning and a further six finishing in the places. He obviously has his yard going great guns and I just think a price of 11/2 or 5/1 is far too big for a progressive animal such as this one. I had him at around 7/2 in this field and the main reason this price still exists is that Mysterious Man has been so well-backed. That one is respected but I’m not sure he’ll enjoy the fast ground and Sun Central just looks to have the potential to be rated over three figures this season, so I’m happy to take my chances at his current odds. Sunday Selections 14:20 Salisbury – Sun Central; 1pt @ 11/2 Stan James Take Best Odds Guaranteed

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Winners at; 10/1, 13/2, 6/1 & 11/2 twice :clap 5pm still to come!

[mattyrobinson]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May I think Moth looked really good in the 1000 earlier. I'm sure the O'Brien team would have had a winner if they'd had a clear run - finished like a train. Fancy Lady Nouf in the 5.00. Think she might bounce back after a disappointing run in the Nell Gwyn.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Well done guys, great performance here with some lovely winners! :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Well done guys, some great winners. :ok Thought the 1000 Guineas was a belter, Cecil's horses are not running well at the moment, Hot Snap was beat a long way from home. Thought Hughes gave Sky Lantern a cracking ride.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Good stuff guys nice winners there :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Some cracking stuff in this thread, well done all those on winners :clap