Jump racing 1st May (Cheltenham & Southwell)

[Darran]

So I spent all of yesterday writing my preview for Cheltenham's hunter chase meeting this evening. Hope this helps you find some winners tonight 5.05 Marky Bob - His run at Stratford last behind Presentandcorrect was his best run of the season for me. He attempted to make all as he did when winning twice at Fakenham last season, but got tired late on. The problem is that making all at Cheltenham is a hard thing to do and this is a much better race than either of those two he won at Fakenham. I still think he will be seen at his best when he is able to boss lesser rivals and although I can see him running well, I think others will be finishing better up the hill. Rash Move - Bolted up in this race year beating Swallows Delight by 12L and has an obvious chance of following up. We have seen him three times this season, at Sandown where he needed the run, at Leicester when he ran a good race but didn't see out the trip and came 2^nd and then ran a superb race in the Fox Hunters' at Aintree to come 3^rd. I would say this race is a little stronger than last year's, but it is very hard not to see him finish in the first three. Himalayan Express - Would be capable of picking up a small hunter chase again like he did at Newton Abbot last year but this is way too strong for him and he makes mistakes. Louis Pasteur - This horse always seems to be well backed and I never understand why. He has managed to win two really bad hunter chases at Newton Abbot but has been out classed in stronger races. He is pretty keen in his races and it would be no surprise to see him and Marky Bob take each other on up front. His jumping isn't the best so that won't help either. What Of It - He was a well beaten 7^th in this in 2011, but I expect a lot better from him this evening. Has this amazing record of having finished 2^nd ten times under Rules in 18 starts and he has also won twice. In five starts this season he has finished 2^nd four times and won the other start. He doesn't really stay 3m so that is why he was 2^nd in his point and the other times I just think he has bumped into four better rivals and he deservedly got his head in front two starts back at Towcester when he just beat Swallows Delight. Technically that horse is better off in the weights today, but What Of It is the type of horse who will never win by far so I think he will finish ahead of him again today. He is so consistent and I think he will be in the frame again. Bromhead - Pulled up in a lesser race at Newton Abbot last week and outclassed here. Caulkin - Was 5^th in this two years ago, but it is hard to see him improving on that based on this seasons efforts in points despite the fact he won last time at Fakenham. Getyouracttogether - No chance Noble Ben - Was a really impressive winner of this in 2011, but he just hasn't been the same horse this season after being forced to miss 2012. He was a well beaten 3^rd at Maisemore last time, but this test should suit him better although it is still hard to see him repeating 2011's win based on what we have seen this season. Interestingly they are sticking blinkers on him for the first time and that might waken him, but I can't back him. Parazar - Will be outclassed. Party Pictures - Was a shock 2^nd at Exeter last time to Regal Rumpus. It seems clear from that effort that this shorter trip suits him much better than the 3m trip in points. It is hard to put a finger on how good that Exeter run is as Regal Rumpus was miles behind Marky Bob at Stratford, although he was running just 5 days after finishing 3^rd at Kempton. My suspicion is he won't be quite good enough to win this, but could run well at decent odds. Speed Steed - First of all it is a disgrace this horse is able to line up here given he has never run in a hunter chase, his only point start was last season and he has been running in novice chases of late. So rant over and onto his chances. On the form of his hurdle win last year at Towcester and his 2^nd in a novice chase to Empire Levant at Doncaster in March he would have a very good chance of winning this. Since that run though he has been beaten at 4/11 and 8/13. The later effort came just seven days ago at Taunton when he was beaten by a horse rated 68! If he runs like that again he has no chance, but clearly if he runs to his best form he has a very good chance. He might well win, but I am going to try and get him beat especially after that Taunton effort. Swallows Delight - As I have mentioned above was 2^nd in this last year to Rash Move and 2^nd to What Of It at Towcester. I don't think he will reverse form with either of those rivals. Aneda Rose - No obvious chance on what she has shown so far this season. Summary - Speed Steed's appearance here is annoying as he has no hunter chase form. As I say above he might well win this, but I suspect he will be under-priced and if he runs like he did last week he won't win anyway. It is pretty certain that What Of It and Rash Move will run their races and I think both are strong candidates to finish in the first three. Tip - Rash Move Alternative - What Of It 5.40 Forest Walker - Was promising last year as a 5yo, but has really progressed through the ranks this season. I saw him win his Intermediate at Cottenham back in February and he looked pretty good that day. He then won at Bangor's point-to-point track beating Croan Rock by 60L after Fruit Fayre had fallen at the last when just 1L down. He then made if four out of four for the season in his debut hunter chase at Ludlow beating What Of It by 5L. That race has worked out pretty well, but I have three concerns about him. One he has to carry a penalty for that success, two his jumping wasn't great and he won't be able to get away with such sloppy jumping here and three I just wonder if this trip might stretch his stamina, given he has proven to have plenty of pace. He must go on anyone's short list, but there are enough reasons to take him on and I suspect because he has won a hunter chase that he will be under-priced in the market. Artic Pride - This horse has been transformed this season winning three from three. He was pretty rubbish under Rules and is only rated 78, but would be thrown in in a handicap on that mark based on his pointing form this season. He has proven he handles any ground and his times in three wins this season have been decent. The big concern though is when he ran at Market Rasen on his only chasing start to date, he blundered at the first and fell heavily at the 2^nd. I just can't back a horse round Cheltenham who has done that and for all that he has solid form claims I am passing him over. Ballyjames - His close 2^nd to That's Rhythm at Bangor last time is on the face of it the best form in this race however I feel he was flattered that day to finish so close and the rest of his form leaves him with a bit to find. Bay To Go - Wasn't up to much in Ireland, but has done nothing but improve since moving to England. He won three points on the spin, before finishing a very good 2^nd on his hunter chase debut behind Benedictus at Kempton. I think he just got outpaced that day by a good horse and the fact he has won at Ampton means he should enjoy a stronger stamina test like this. One think I would say though is that he clearly enjoys decent ground and it would be a worry if they have over-watered otherwise he has a leading chance. Blazing Whale - Not even managed to win on Intermediate including finishing behind a couple of this and was easily beaten, albeit by a good horse, on his hunter chase debut at Exeter. Croan Rock - Another horse who has progressed nicely this season and on the face of it did well in beating winning hunter chaser Current Exchange in a point last time. The suspicion is though that he ran below par that day and he was 60L behind Forest Walker the time before. He is probably better than that, but it still leaves him with a bit to find. Double Bank - Has improved this season at the age of 10 winning all four starts and is on a six timer this evening. Certainly deserves to run in a hunter chase, but I think he needs a bit of cut in the ground to be at his best, he makes the odd blunder and he finished very tired on his last start just 17 days ago. Has a chance but I am happy to pass him over. Following Dreams - Has won both starts this season in good fashion, but has jumped deliberately on more than one occasion and if he does that here he will be trouble. I also suspect he needs cut to be at his best. Fourth In Line - Outclassed. Harbour Court - I have been waiting for this horse to appear in a hunter chase for a while and this has been the target all season. He has only run four times in the last two seasons but all have been really impressive efforts. I saw him at Charing last year where he won easily and it was clear I was watching a class horse. He was then narrowly beaten by Woodview Prince, who is a very good horse as well, in a race that was run in a very fast time. He suffered minor ligament damage that day as well so he may have even won except for that. He has been very impressive again in both wins this season. Given he his trained by Alan Hill I am sure he will have been well schooled ahead of his first start under Rules, he jumps well in points, and if he takes to the fences he has a massive chance. Hello Mr Kelly - Looks outclassed on his form this season. Indiana Bay - Loves a good surface so if the ground isn't overwatered then he would have each-way claims here. He won a poor Mixed Open last time although it was in a very quick time. He was well beaten by Lucette Annie the time before but that was on heavy ground and she is a good horse. Still looks progressive and a big run would not surprise. Little Cornham - Decent horse, but was 5L behind Bay To Go last time and no obvious reason why the form should be reversed. My Fella - Hard to fancy on this season's form and was well beaten in a dreadful race at Ffos Las. Quatuor Collonges - Looked very quirky under Rules, but has improved since going under points. Just had the one start this season winning his Intermediate at Andoversford. Was a fair effort but hard to see him being good enough to win this. Ruapehu - Struggled to get round early on this season, but has won his last two. Beat Blazing Whale easily and then hacked up at 1/3 in a bad race last time. He has Will Biddick aboard which is a plus, but the fact he seems best on soft ground is a negative and enough to put me off. Chosen Milan - Looks outclassed Oriel Bank - Well behind Artic Pride last time. Summary - This race usually throws up a decent winner and is always one of the most competitive races of the evening. I am really looking forward to seeing how Harbour Court gets on in his first hunter chase and I am very sweet on his chances. Forest Walker has obvious claims, but I wonder if this trip at Cheltenham might just find him out. Artic Pride is another with chances but his jumping is a concern based on his Market Rasen run. As long as the ground is fast enough I think Bay To Go and Indiana Bay can both go well. I liked Bay To Go's run at Kempton and that looked a nice prep for this, whilst Indiana Bay could go well at a decent price. Tip - Harbour Court Alternative - Bay To Go and Indiana Bay e/w 6.10 Coombe Hill - Very consistent horse who won this race last year. The only time he has disappointed this season was in the Foxhunter here when he was obviously outclassed. He got his first win of the season last time when winning at Wincanton and with Rumbury Grey a fair way back in 3^rd and he was further behind him in this race last year. Has an obvious chance and should go close. Divine Intavention - Another really consistent horse who finished 2^nd (would have been 3^rd if Oscar Delta had completed) in the Foxhunter in March which was a massive run given the ground had gone against him. Prior to that he hadn't looked as if he would stay that far or want to go left-handed but dispelled those theories that day. His pointing form is very strong this season although he ran out last time in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett. I was there that day and it was a massive surprise that he did it because he has never shown any tendencies to do that before. He was running well up to that point and it didn't look like his Cheltenham exertions had left a mark. I don't think he will do that again and he has a massive chance. Duke Special - Will be outclassed Hameldown Tor - Has been running well at a lowly level in points this season. He was sent of a 5/1 chance in the Intermediate Final last year but made a couple of mistakes before falling. Even if he did get round he would be a surprising winner. Pertemps Heights - Very quirky and will be outclassed here. Rumbury Grey - Today is the day I am finally deserting my favourite horse from last season. He was well beaten in this last year although the ground had gone against him so it should help that it won't be so soft today. The main problem is he just hasn't looked the same horse this season and I really have no idea why apart from the fact Steve Flook has only trained one hunter chase winner all season and his horses have generally run below par. If he wins I will be pleased for the horse, but he is impossible to back today. The General Lee - Was disappointing when behind his stablemate Surenaga and Rumbury Grey at Ludlow on his last hunter chase start and he was then outbattled in a point last time. Was also well beaten in this race last year and I find it hard to see him beating either of the top two. Trouble Digger - Won a Lingfield hunter chase on bottomless ground in February, but was found out in a better race when falling at Newbury last time. With much better ground today there is even less reason to think he can beat the top two. Summary - It would be no surprise to see the top two finish first and second here but preference is for Divine Intavention who I think is a better horse than Coombe Hill. Tip - Divine Intavention NB 6.45 Kirkleigh - Looked like he was going to progress into a very good horse after winning at Wincanton back in January. That was under his ideal conditions of testing ground and it was also before Thomas Chanin took over the ride. He just won at Chepstow where the rider looked weak in the finish. He was well beaten on fast ground at Taunton and then only just won a weak point last time. It is a shame they are running him on fast ground as he needs it soft and I would be surprised if he won this. Doctor Kingsley - Won the Intermediate Final last year when he flew home to win. This season he hasn't shown an awful lot. He was well beaten on his season debut and then won a poor race before finishing 4^th in the Foxhunter here. I wouldn't read much into that though as he was the last to finish and he was so far behind his rider was able to take advantage of the fact so many horses pulled up at the last. He won easily enough last time, but again it wasn't a strong heat. Bar the Foxhunter this is the best race he has run in and I am not sure he up to it. Ravethebrave - Has looked as good as ever this season even if he has only won twice. He was 3^rd in a strong point on his seasonal debut and then went on to win well at Fakenham. The ground would have been against him in his next two hunter chases at Leicester and Newbury but still ran well in the circumstances to finish 3^rd both times. Back on better ground he won a Mens Open to qualify himself for this race. It wasn't a strong race but he won pretty easily. He has a leading chance, but I just wonder if he is better on a flatter track. Surenaga - Has looked on the downgrade a couple of times in the last two seasons only to come back to form. This season he was struggling before winning his last two races. I thought he looked a bit laboured when 3^rd at Ludlow, but back there on his next hunter chase start he looked a different horse as he was really impressive in beating Rumbury Grey. He was kept ticking over when he won a qualifier for this last month in easy fashion. The trainer's horses have had a great season and he holds a big chance. Arbour Hill - A solid and consistent horse at the right level, but this looks too strong for him. Ballyeightra Cross - Was well fancied for the Intermediate Final a couple of years ago but could only finish 3^rd. He hasn't shown a great deal since then although his second to Woodview Prince was a fair run last time, but even so hard to see him winning this. Batu Ferringhi - This horse could be the thorn in the ointment as it is impossible to know how good he is. He didn't look anything special last season, but this season he has looked really progressive as he has gone through the grades. He won over 3m4f last time beating Faasel in the process which was a fair effort. What is most interesting is the fact he could have run in the Intermediate Final and yet they have chosen this race. My feeling is they have done that because they know he stays well so the extra furlong should be play to his strengths. The question is though can he find enough improvement on his first start over Rules fences to beat the likes of Ravethebrave and Surenaga? Gunmoney - Another who looks to be on the upgrade and who is making his debut under Rules. He finished very tired though when winning over 3m4f just ten days ago and this better race looks like it will come soon enough. Summary - A fascinating race with a couple of progressive pointers down the bottom who could be anything, whilst we have the known quality of Ravethebrave and Surenaga. I think those are the two to concentrate on with preference for Surenaga who seems to have hit form again, but I will be having a saver on Ravethebrave. Tip - Surenaga Alternative - Ravethebrave 7.20 Lucette Annie - A very likeable mare who gained her first hunter chase win at Exeter last time. She did it well that day and despite her lack of size she seems to be a great jumper and I don't think she will have a problem with these larger fences. What I do think she will have a problem with is the ground. She thrives under testing conditions as she proved when disappointing at Stratford when the going was good. It all depends on how much water they have put on the ground, but even then I am not sure it will be soft enough for her. Mid Div And Creep - I am led to believe this will be her last race and given the great career she has had it would be great to see her end on a win. I think she has a solid chance of doing so as well as she has been running fair enough races this season including beating Double Mead two starts back. She was beaten by a decent horse last time and should run well. Chesnut Annie - Has won 34 of her 49 starts in points, but most of the time she has struggled in hunter chases despite winning a couple. She has not surprisingly not been seen under Rules since 2011 and her pointing form this season suggests she is on the downgrade, so I am more than happy to pass her over. Fruit Fayre - She has been progressing really nicely over the last couple of seasons. She has won three out of four starts this season and the only time she failed to win was when she fell at the last when given Forest Walker a race at Bangor's point-to-point track. I saw her the start before at Didmarton when I was really impressed by what I saw. She won by 20L that day and the time was quick as well. She also hacked up last time in a decent time. She has proven herself on all types of ground and looks really progressive. Obviously the slight concern is how she will take to Rules fences but if she handles them then she has a big chance. Gemini June - Ran out a couple of starts ago and has only a maiden win to her name. Keel Road - Been struggling to get her head in front this season and this looks too tough. My Lil Ledge - Is capable of decent form as her 3^rd in the Intermediate Final has shown, but she seems massively inconsistent as I saw for myself when she pulled up at odds on when I was at Barbury a couple of starts back and this looks too tough for her. Popaway - Looks to be improving but not enough to take this. Topless - Will struggle to get involved. Summary - It would be great to see Mid Div And Creep in the winners enclosure for the final time, but I feel the younger legs of Fruit Fayre will take this as long as she takes to the track. On form the only other one I could consider is Lucette Annie, but the ground is not in her favour. Tip - Fruit Fayre NAP 7.50 Special Portrait - Won this last year in what was one of the finishes of the season and prior to that he has also won the Perth hunter chase he won again last week. He is in much better form than he was earlier in the season, although suspicion this is a little stronger than last year's renewal and the quicker ground is against him. Deb's Dasher - Has looked in need of a test of stamina and was only a fortunate winner of novice chase at Stratford last summer over 2m2f. Has not been in great form since coming back this season though as only won a weak point and then disappointed over 3m4f last time. Probably has it in him to go close but hard to back after his last run. Also note the Racing Post have said he was trained by a different yard last season, but Richard Woollacott and Kayley Jones are a couple so he hasn't gone far! Freddies Return - Was found out in a hunter chase at Warwick when he couldn't get past Gentle George, a horse he had stuffed the time before. He has lots of ones next to his name but he had beaten nothing of any note in his wins in the South East in the last 3 years. He was beaten in a point in his next start but reversed the form 10 days ago. He has won the Kent Grand National twice so the trip shouldn't be an issue, but his ability might be. How's My Friend - Been behind Freddies Return this season, but keeps running to a consistent level in hunter chases. The problem is he looks very quirky and would benefit from stronger handling. The trip is a bit of an unknown although he did run ok in a Devon National. I can't back him whilst the current jockey continues to ride him. Barrick's Hill - Was all out to win a Restricted a couple of weeks ago and he needs to step up massively on that form. Bell On Bike - Finished a distant 2^nd in one of the worse hunter chases to be run this season and doesn't exactly look as if the step up in trip will being out the improvement needed. Be There In Five - Was well behind Special Portrait at Sedgefield where I wasn't impressed by his young jockey either. Don't see how he can reverse the form. Bleuvito - Is a horse who has his quirks, but also does have ability. Got outpaced at Towcester last week over 2m3f and plugged on, but this will be his third race in just over a week and I am not sure he wants this far either as much as the trip was too short last time. Charles Bruce - I am a huge fan of the jockey, but sadly he looks on a no hoper here given he has only a maiden win to his name and doesn't look as if he wants a trip this far. Cold Mountain - Not the force of old and struggles in South East points so will struggle even more here. Crank Hill - Not been in the best of form in points this season and is a quirky customer, but what we do know is he stays very well given he flew to get second in this last year. You couldn't rule him out of this based on last year's effort. Dammam - Talking of tricky rides here is another one. He made a solid return after a long lay-off when 2^nd to Cottage Oak at Chaddesley Corbett in December. He then ran a stinker in a hunter chase at Wetherby, but ran a good 4^th here last month in a handicap. I just wonder if this sort of test might suit him well and he has a big chance. James Pine - No chance on all known form. Keenan's Future - His confidence seemed dented after taking a few falls last season, but ran a promising race in the Lady Dudley Cup a couple of weeks ago when only beaten 10L in 4^th. He was one paced in the closing stages and I just wonder if he might want this stamina test now. Could be interesting at big odds. King Of The Road - Was a well beaten 2^nd in weak renewal of this two years ago and has been in poor form ever since. Oedipe - If he ran to his BHA rating of 125 he would win this. The problem is he doesn't look capable of running to anywhere near that mark now and was a fair way behind Keenan's Future in the Lady Dudley Cup. Thelobstercatcher - Here we have another Tim Vaughan trained runner who has never run in hunter chases and he hasn't run in points since he ran in Ireland back in 2008. Again I hope something else wins, but I have to focus on his form claims and he looks to have a decent chance. He plugged onto finish 5^th in the Devon National last time so this drop in grade and stiffer test of stamina should suit him well. As much as I don't really want him to win he has to go on the shortlist. The Rubber Man - 2^nd in a point just four days ago and doesn't look up to this. Zacharova - Is a very hard ride as he proved at Bangor last time. Summary - We may have a field of 19 but there are very few that have realistic claims of winning this. I am not sure Special Portrait will repeat his win 12 months ago and I am just siding with Dammam as this test might well suit him down to the ground. Thelobstercatcher is worth a saver and at really big odds I will also take a chance on Keenan's Future at a big price because his run last time in a better race than this was promising and he holds better claims than most. Tip - Dammam Alternative - Thelobstercatcher and Keenan's Future e/w 8.20 Allerford Jack - Landed a four-timer in handicaps last summer and has run two solid enough races at Taunton and Ascot on his return. Should run his race again, but this is a hot little race. Benedictus - Finally showing the promise he looked like he had last season. Unseated in the Intermediate Final here last year and his jumping used to be an issue, but based on his recent runs that is no longer the case. He has run three out of his last four (the other being the Foxhunter) and has looked more impressive and beating better horses as the season goes on. I thought Kempton was his best win yet. The one slight concern is he did unseat here last year, but like I say his jumping is much better now and he is a leading player. Byerley Bear - Disappointed the last time we saw him 87 days ago and the form of his two wins this season isn't as strong as others here. His form also suggests he would be better with more cut in the ground. Presentandcorrect - Got a deserved hunter chase victory under optimum conditions at Stratford a couple of weeks ago. That gives him a decent chance in this but connections are hoping they haven't put too much water on his he needs good ground. Fresh Air And Fun - Only seen twice last season when he won at Ludlow and finished 5^th in the Aintree Fox Hunters'. That Ludlow form isn't up too much though and I would be surprised if he was up to this after over a year off. Palypso De Creek - Had become a horse to oppose last season, but has won 8 on the bounce this term including an easy win in a hunter chase at Wetherby. The problem is he hasn't exactly been beating an awful lot in any of his races and this is certainly the best field yet. It wouldn't surprise me if he won, but I can't help thinking this race is too good for him. Soulard - Won a dreadful hunter chase at Towcester and won't be repeating the feat here. Cool Friend - First two runs for new connections were nothing special, but then ran a stormer to finish a close 2^nd in the Aintree Fox Hunters'. The form of that race has yet to be tested though and my suspicion is that the form isn't to be trusted so I will be taking him on. Big Game Hunter - Been well beaten in two hunter chases this season and it will probably be the same story here. Rebel Du Maquis - The form of his hunter chase debut at Taunton is not to be trusted as it was a very strange race run at a very slow pace. He was still going well enough when falling in the Aintree Fox Hunters' last time and given he is still rated 137 you have to respect his chances. Rustic John - Would need to start now to win this. Taranis - Needless to say the 2007 Ryanair Chase winner and the 2010 Argento Chase winner in is a very interesting runner. He wasn't seen after falling here on New Year's Day in 2011 until he turned up at a very cold Barbury Castle 38 days ago. It may have been cold but his performance certainly helped warm me up that day especially as the bookies were offering very generous odds given how bad the race was. Now he clearly didn't need to be anywhere near his best to beat a very poor bunch, but you could tell that he still retains a fair bit of ability and the winning time was quick especially given he won in a canter. Obviously you are guessing as too how much ability he retains, but I think it could be enough to win this especially as he gets weight from nearly every horse in the race. Summary - This is probably the race I am looking forward to most as it is a fascinating contest. Rebel De Marquis is on the shortlist and Palypso De Creek and Presentandcorrect aren't out of it, but I think Taranis could well prove hard to beat here. Given his past I don't believe his owner would risk him unless he was still up to winning races. Yes it was a poor race he won at Barbury, but to my eye he is still a classy animal. Benedictus is the one to have a saver on just in case Taranis isn't good enough. Tip - Taranis Alternative - Benedictus

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump racing 1st May (Cheltenham) Thanks Addpea, good luck mate:ok