Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog.

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 1.55 Ascot: This is the first race I looked at and narrowed it down to at least 5 with a decent chance. From a list of Taajub-Massamah-Racy-Miss Lahar and Confessional, the final choice was Confessional from the Easterby yard. Need to ignore his latest run when putting in a below par effort, which may have been the draw, his overall form is plenty good enough, far better than his 28-1 price he's offered at. Slowly creeping down the weights and in 3 runs at Ascot, never run a bad race. Often met trouble in running, which hopefully he can evade today and if he does get a trouble free passage, which is no guarantee in these big field sprints, he shouldn't be far away. 0.5 pt each way at 28-1 bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 230 Ascot the fav Aljamaaheer is a rock solid bet here and is a worthy fav. Consistent sort who has only been out the frame twice in which the going had soft in it. The group 1 we ran in lto is working out with 2 winners confirming the form. We have ran well here in the past and hopefully can take a race of this nature as we deserve 1. Really should be in the first 3 today and the odds look more than fair today. 0.5pt win 3.6 BF 1.5pt place 1.69 BF

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 510 Chester Stellar express is worth a small ew as 2 starts back ran a good 2nd here from a poor draw over Cd in what looked a stronger race than today. We are up 1lb but this mark is still well within our compass. The form of the run here is holding up well. A change in jockey today has to be a concern but makes us a back able price. The faster ground shoud'nt be a problem and for a nice pot we can hopefully run a big race. 0.25pt ew 7/1 bog hills

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 2.25 Tipperary: This race won't attract too much attention in the scheme of todays racing, only a 4 runner maiden and the main reason for posting the selection today, isn't just about winning this race, its about the antepost price for next years Epsom Derby. Illinois is the 2yo colt I have been waiting to see, makes it debut and although only 4 runners, he gets a good yardstick of an opponent in Warbird, who ran with plenty of promise on debut and didn't finish too far behind Australia ( 2nd ) another of O'Brien's Derby hopefuls for next years classic. Jamie Heffernan rides this colt today, with Joseph O'Brien over in Longchamp with Battle of Marengo. Illinois is a classically bred colt, by Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer mare. The dam Chintz, was a Group 3 winner as a 2yo and finished 5th in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, the dam also made a winning debut as a 2yo. Chintz comes from family line of the mare Vallee Dansante, who was also responsible for Funsie, who was the dam of Derby winner Auhorized. I'd be happy with a workmanlike performance today from this colt and hopefully a winning debut will see him enter into the bookies antepost pricelist for next years Derby, for which any winnings from today will be re-invested in the antepost market. 1 pt win at Evens bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 315 Newmarket i could probably throw 10 darts at this and still not find the winner but 2 x cd winner i'm so glad off a low weight looks a big price. Fits a fair few trends to go with the cd form. Saying that so did 4 or 5 others but the cd form along with 4 places we could on our best form be involved but we need to break well as the draw is far from ideal. Will let that slide though as the 2 stalls either side have fair records in the context of this race. On the flip side of that our 3/3 places here have been when drawn lower. 0.25pt ew 25/1

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 350 Newmarket Gale force ten has solid claims when trending the race. Also had the c cox runner but he is out of form so am sticking with this one to run a big race. Won a weaker race lto at Ascot but has placed in 2/2 in this type of race. This is a tough race to win with some very solid competition but we are lightly raced and have the right man in the saddle. 0.25pt win 7.4 0.5pt place 2.48

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]

[TR] [TD=class: xl26, width: 139, bgcolor: #FFFF99] P & L Account [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 77, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Outlay [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 79, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Return [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 80, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Profit [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 89, bgcolor: #FFFF99] R.O.I. [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 91, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] April [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £8.00 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £2.75 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] -£5.25 [/TD] [TD=class: xl36, bgcolor: transparent] -66% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] May [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £56.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £75.46 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £18.96 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 34% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] June [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £47.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £85.67 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £38.17 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 80% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] July [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £24.75 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £69.62 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £44.87 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 181% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl32, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] Sub Total [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £136.75 [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £233.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £96.75 [/TD] [TD=class: xl34, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 71% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl29, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Results [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 1st [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 2nd [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 3rd [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Unplaced [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Strike Rate [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] April [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 14% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] May [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 42 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 18% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] June [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 28 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 20% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] July [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 32% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl32, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] Sub Total [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 31 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 17 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 14 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 88 [/TD] [TD=class: xl34, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 21% [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 4.30 Ayr: Adorable Choice isn't the most consistent mare but she is still capable on a going day. I backed her last time on the AW and she just wasn't interested from the off. She gave me the impression that day, that she may have been showing signs of coming into season, which would explain her lacklustre run, even though she isn't overly consistent. I'm ready to forgive her that recent run and hope the switch back to turf, might also spark a bit of interest from her. She hasn't won for a couple of years but both her wins in turf handicaps were on fast ground, over this trip and came from handicap marks between 10 and 14lbs higher than she is on now. 0.5 pt each way at 12-1 bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 4.00 Ayr is a trappy race and not one to get to heavily involved with but Alejandro has bits and pieces of form in our last few runs to suggest we can out run the double figure odds. Last 3 runs are better than the bare form. 2 of those were at chester in which we were not beaten far in our last race from a poor draw and the time before was for a big pot again not beaten far. Also our run at Musselburgh is starting to look solid and the winners are coming out of that race. The claimer off sets a slight rise in the weights. The concerns i have are the trainer has 2 in the race, the jockey has a poor record here and the horse may have forgot how to win but i feel we can be competitive today as this race looks weaker than what we have been running in. 0.25pt ew 11/1 ladbrokes. Bigger on exchange but not much money on place side yet. Best crack on ;)

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 3.00 Lingfield Fosters road maybe a bit of value in this race. If we repeat our run of 2 starts back we should be bang there as we were a tad unlucky and still got up for 2nd A poor run lto at Kempton i can forgive as we are not bred for there. We have won several class 4 races and today this is a class 5. If transferring aw form to the flat we should out run the price. A 3lb claimer gets the leg up today so we are a few lb worse off but we should be competitive carrying top weight. 0.25pt 8/1 boyle sport

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 7.10 Sandown: With the front two in the market at 4-1 this 2yo maiden looks an open race. Hannon looks well represented with a couple of runners, ridden by Hughes and Moore, so will no doubt attract some support, Top of the Glas was made Fav on debut but was green and eventually finished 3rd, the form of that race hasn't worked out that strongly. I like the look of John Portmans Polar Express, the trainer runs two in here, both making their debuts. The selection is a gelded son of Sahkee's Secret out of a Polar Falcon mare. The dam Polar Dawn wasn't anything out of the ordinary but she was a winner twice and also finished runner up twice in her career, she very nearly made a winning debut as a 2yo, sent off a 33-1 chance, after taking a while to get the hang of things, she finished strongly and only beaten a nose by a much more experienced rival. John Portman is more than capable of getting one ready for debut, had his best ever year, last season with his 2yos, winning 6 from 35, of which 3 of those 6 winners made their debut a winning one. 0.5 pt each way at 20-1 bog

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 2.00 Lingfield: On the book, this maiden looks to be between 3 of the runners. Familiarity and Response have both had 3 tries at losing their maiden tags and come up short each time, both look capable enough to win this but I would rather side with the Stoute filly who makes her seasonal debut, having had just one run on the AW last year. Qareenah is a well bred filly, cost 340,000 Euros as a yearling, related to a few modest runners but also related a Group 1 winner in Ireland and is full sister to a Grade 1 winner in the States. Had just one run on the AW in what looked a fair maiden, produced some winners and the winner went on to land Group 3 in Meydan for the Godolphin team, her maiden was also run in a decent time, over a second quicker than division two. The step up in trip is also sure to benefit this filly and with the Stoute yard in far better form this year, than they were compared to last year, I would rather be on the side of this filly, even though the other two will have race fitness on their side. 1 pt win at 11-4 bog

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 5.10 Leicester: A very modest looking apprentice sprint handicap in which I'm taking a punt with The Bendy Fella. Late starter having his first run as a 4yo early last year on the AW at Kempton, where he had 3 quick runs in maidens, didn't show a great deal at big odds. Following a 10 month layoff, returned to Kempton for his first handicap run, was well backed and didn't run too badly, considering his wide draw and the time off. Also well backed in two of his next 3 runs at Kempton, the latest over a mile and the other two, missed the break both times. Having his first start on turf following a 4 month layoff, if he doesn't blow the start, could show a fair bit of improvement. Very speedy pedigree, by Choisir out of an unraced mare by Mummys Pet, so he is at least bred to be very speedy, although still to show it yet. 0.5 pt EW at 16-1 bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 830 Doncaster. Top weight Halfsin is over priced if coming out the stalls today as lto at Kempton the selection never come out. We are back out today only 22 days later so all must be ok and no doubt has had a bit of stall work done since. The hood is fitted 1st time for the CD winner who looks drawn well and off a fair mark considering we won here in a small field off 88. Today we go off 85 and the help from a 3lb claimer who rides the track well from limited numbers. the trainer is in good form and does well this time of year so hopefully if we break well we can out run the price. 0.25pt ew 16/1 bog bet 365

[seaner]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Unlucky today with Halfsin bully,keep up the good work

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Today will be the day of the Unraced 2yo's for me, I won't go into great detail about Trainers and Pedigree etc, suffice to say that two come from the John Gosden yard and the other two from the Saeed Bin Suroor yard, both trainer highly capable of getting one ready for debut. All 4 have very good pedigree's, a couple have very good US pedigree's, the other two by Oasis Dream and Street Cry. Each of the 4 selections looks more than capable of making their debuts a winning one but should they fail, they still look the types to put into the notebooks for later in the season and for next year. 1.50 Newbury Muwaary @ 6-1 2.20 Newbury Terhaab @ 11-2 2.40 Haydock Strategical @ 7-2 6.20 Newmarket Folk Melody @ 3-1 1 pt win on each

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Thanks for the kind word Seaner I wonder if the pro helped or hindered 3lb claimer not on ? 915 Hamilton. Looking to take on Tectonic with Wellinggrove as they met over Cd 3 starts back and now at the weights especially being a 3 yr old (weight for age) we should be able to get involved as since then Tectonic has gone from a mark of 56 to 69 and we were not beaten far over CD on that day. If Janna's Jingle handles the track that looks to be a danger as has bits and pieces but the sire's record is poor but only had 20 odd runners. Have to be cautious though as had over 10 starts without getting our head in front so it's a small wager my end. 0.25pt win 4/1 bog 0.25pt place BF (will add price when there is some money ) 2.38. Not got all day to keep checking

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]

[TR] [TD=class: xl26, width: 139, bgcolor: #FFFF99] P & L Account [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 77, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Outlay [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 79, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Return [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 80, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Profit [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 89, bgcolor: #FFFF99] R.O.I. [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 91, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] April [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £8.00 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £2.75 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] -£5.25 [/TD] [TD=class: xl36, bgcolor: transparent] -66% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] May [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £56.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £75.46 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £18.96 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 34% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] June [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £47.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £85.67 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £38.17 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 80% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] July [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £34.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £86.27 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £51.77 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 150% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl32, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] Sub Total [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £146.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £250.15 [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £103.65 [/TD] [TD=class: xl34, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 71% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl29, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Results [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 1st [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 2nd [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 3rd [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Unplaced [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Strike Rate [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] April [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 14% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] May [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 42 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 18% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] June [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 28 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 20% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] July [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 33% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl32, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] Sub Total [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 35 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 18 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 15 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 93 [/TD] [TD=class: xl34, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 22% [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 3.50 Newbury: The Weatherbys Super Sprint, 24 runners and all 24 would have a chance. The weights for this race are governed by the sales prices fetched at auction, so the more expensive the purchase, the more weight carried and equally the cheaper the purchase, the less weight carried. I'm going for one of the bottom weighted runners Oasis Town, one of four entries from the Kevin Ryan yard. This filly only cost £8,000 as a yearling, hence her low weight. Ryan usually runs 3 or 4 in this race every year and has gone mighty close in each of the last 6 running's with at least one of his entries. His record reads 3rd-3rd-5th-2nd-3rd-6th, so hopefully today he can win this with one of his runners and hopefully I've picked the right one. This filly is of interest as she may not have the form in the book of some of her rivals but she showed great improvement from her first run to win a run of the mill maiden auction at Carlisle, which may not sound great but it is also the same race that Ryan won with Bold Bidder in 2010 before that filly finished 2nd in this race, Bold Bidder had also had another run in between winning the Carlisle race and running 2nd in this, whereas this filly has seemingly been kept with this race in mind. 0.5 pt EW at 16-1 bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 340 Newmarket I'm so glad. Was on this one last weekend at a big price and today the CD specialist is dropped to a weaker grade so if coming out of that race well we look the one to beat. 7 runners and 3 places my eyes light up as in 4 runs we are yet to be out the frame here. On the gd/firm going we have only not been placed once. We are up 1lb for our last race which puts us 1lb over our last winning mark but that was in a class 2. Today we are in a fillies only class 3. All being well we look the one to beat. 0.25pt win 5.5 0.75pt place 1.94 3 places on BF

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Nice 20/1 placer there JR. :ok Top work. Drift told the story on mine. Maybe the tough race lto left its mark but someone knew. Just not me :sad:sad

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Cheers JB I wouldn't worry too much about that last one, sometimes the Trainers don't even know how much a race has taken out of a horse, they can look fit and healthy as ever at home, only really tells during the race, by which time its too late

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 4.10 Redcar: Tough looking sprint handicap in which one of the old boy's Medici Time would have to be considered, on the best of his form. He is a law unto himself this old boy, which is reflected in how he runs. Last win was last summer when landing a £12K handicap at Newmarket, having previously been well beaten at York. Since that win he has run 6 times and finished, either last or 2nd last in each run. What he has in his favour today, race conditions ideal, lowest handicap mark for 3 years and the he is racing without any of his usual headgear on, which might be the spark he needs. He won his maiden over C/D as a 3yo, in the visor for the first time, winning at 40-1, hopefully a return to Redcar, without the visor, might see him return to form. 0.5 pt EW at 16-1 bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 430 Stratford Bathwick man won this last yr and is only 3lb higher than that win. Not fired yet this years in class 3 events. So the drop back down in class can only help. The horse has previous here 5 runs 2 wins 4 places and a useful record at the trip 4 runs 1 win 3 places. The ground we have a fair record over hurdles 6 runs 3 wins 4 places. So if recapturing some old form the price looks big. A tough race in which several have chances but i'm not convinced we are a 10/1 shot. Pity only 2 places but will play small. 0.25pt ew 10/1 bog

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 2.45 Cartmel: todays racing is pretty dire and this handicap hurdle at Cartmel is possibly one of the worst races of the day. The Mongolian might be worth a little EW punt as she only has 4 runs under her belt and is far less exposed than most of her rivals. She is bred to stay all day, by Presenting out of a Scallywag mare, the Dam, Elegant City was a dual winner for Nicky Richards, winning a bumper and a novice hurdle. This mare had her first run following a 5 month break, when finishing 4th last time out. That was her first try over 2m 4f and the step up to 2m 6f should be in her favour. She should also strip a lot fitter for that recent run and gets into this handicap, from a reasonable mark of 82. 0.5 pt EW at 22-1 bog Non Runner

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 5.00 Musselburgh: Two runs this season from Prince of Vasa don't make for good reading, last of 7 and 8th of 11 runners on most recent outing. Which is a good enough reason to see him at 33-1 in the betting. Looking at his form, its easy to discount his two runs this year, he had a tough time of things from April 2011 and April 2012, had 22 runs within the space of those 12 months. His first outing this year, was on the back of a 14 month layoff, so entitled to need that run. Latest run was at Catterick, where he was drawn widest of all and just couldn't get competitive, being forced to run wide. Prior to his layoff, he had been in fairly good form on the AW at Southwell, winning twice. Should strip a lot fitter today and has a better draw at Mussleburgh, so worthy of a little EW. 0.5 pt EW at 33-1 bog

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 345 Southell Cockney trucker has the form in the book to win this. Has finished 2nd at Doncaster over this trip in a class 2 hcp behind aim to prosper back in march off of 130 in a race that had Ogee in behind. Today we are still off that mark and should reverse the form with ixora who beat my selection at Chelt by 1.75 l but we were giving away 11lb that day. Today we give 6lb. The trainer has a good record here and Ap is in the saddle so we look a worthy fav and should run our race. 0.5pt win 3/1 bog 0.5pt place will add later when some money is about NR

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 535 Lingfield Olympic jule is worth a interest at such big odds especially as our run here two starts back after a long lay off is looking good where we finished 3rd. the 2 in front have ran with credit nto and the 4th has won. Also others further down the field have franked the form. Since then we ran at Kempton and it wasn't a bad effort. Finished 4th possible bounce but we were not in the best position that day also. A bonus is we have been dropped 1lb as well. Every little helps and all that. A competitive race make no mistake about it but the price is wrong so has to be a play for me. 0.5pt win 24 0.5pt place 6.4 BF

[bully3061]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 635 epsom Go nani go was impressive lto to win in good fashion and should run our race again in todays conditions. We look a worthy fav. Trainer does well here with the few sent here. He does well this time of yr. Jockey gets on well with the horse. Would take a career best to win this but this race is full of dead wood. Missed the break lto and still getting up we could still be ahead of this mark and rates as a punt tonight. 0.5pt win @ 3.85

[jolly red]

Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog.

Brighton 2.45 Surrey Dream is a modest looking maiden, still seeking its first win after 19 runs so far. Doesn't seem to stay a mile and lacks early pace for 6f but does stay on at the finish. Back at 6f today but it all depends on getting a good break and keeping in touch with the leaders on the downhill stretch, once they reach the climb at Brighton, this should be staying on. Last couple of runs over this trip look modest, well beaten in a C/D maiden, then a couple of days later, 6th of 9 at Goodwood. To be fair had little to no chance in those two runs, in the maiden he was trying to give weight to the front two, both of which have won since and are rated 79 and 80, at Goodwood he was racing 11lb out of the handicap. Has no excuses today, its all down to the first couple of furlongs and how much ground is lost, if able to keep up with the early pace, has his best chance of finally breaking the maiden tag. 0.5 pt Each Way at 12-1 bog

5.15 Brighton: Surrey Dream was my selection when he last ran at Brighton a couple of runs back, only finished 5th that day, after being backed in from 12-1 to 5-1. Now running here in a seller and will give him a chance to redeem himself. 1 pt win at 7-1 bog