Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th

[BillyHills]

2.40 Sandown: Bet365.Com Celebration Chase (Grade 2) (2m) A decent quality renewal here for the Celebration Chase and you could make a case for any of the top three in the betting, all have the ability to put a good run together but all have been slightly disappointing this season at one point or another. Sanctuaire won this last year from the front and I’d be surprised if he didn’t adopt those tactics again now Sprinter Sacre is out of the way. I thought Finnian’s Rainbow looked better last time at Aintree and on his old form would be a warm favourite here and at the prices would sooner take a chance on him. Selection: 2pts Finnian’s Rainbow 5/1

>Bet365

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[beaker1]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 2:05 Sandown – bet365 Handicap Hurdle MINELLA FORFITNESS is developing into a very decent horse. Having won twice at Doncaster and showing a really good attitude to get up on the second of those wins, he went to Aintree to tackle a very competitive handicap hurdle and having settled much better in that race, was able to challenge still on the bridle and ended up being an impressive winner. The handicapper has increased his rating by nine pounds, but he is improving and if he settles like he did at Aintree, he has a good chance of defying his new mark with the trip and ground in his favour. 2:40 Sandown – bet365.com Celebration Chase SANCTUAIRE was brilliant in this last year and can win it again. He has a good record over fences at Sandown, winning two of his three starts and the only defeat was when trying to make a race of it with Sprinter Sacre, which would stop most horses! He has not run to form on his last two starts, but he was held up in those and a return to more aggressive tactics should reap its reward. It is also good to see Daryl Jacob in the saddle who rode him to win this race last year. 3:50 Sandown – bet365 Gold Cup This looks a very competitive handicap to finish the season with, but MR MOSS has a decent chance of going one better than Cappa Bleu did for trainer Evan Williams in the Grand National and winning this valuable handicap. He has looked an improved horse this winter and enters the race fresher than most, having run just the three times. Last time out he ran a cracker to finish second in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and watching the race, I feel this extra distance will suit. The ground will be very similar in this and he is close to the bottom of the weights, which is usually an advantage in these marathon races. Another to consider is There’s No Panic who could prove some each-way value. Although still a novice, he has gained a fair amount of experience over fences and was not disgraced behind Dynaste in November. He has run well on both starts over fences at Sandown and has left the impression that this step up in trip will suit.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th

3.50 Sandown: Bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) (3m5f110y) Another very competitive Bet365 Chase with plenty of possibilities, the Irish horse Away We Go is obviously well handicapped on his Fairyhouse form but I’m not sure he can reproduce that here. My three against the field would be Hold On Julio, Hadrian’s Approach and Mr Moss. I’m confident the King horse has the ability but for some reason has failed to deliver this season, I reckon the blinkers and the longer trip may just to the trick. Hadrian’s Approach is a very promising stayer for next year and can see him running into a place in this company while Mr Moss is lightly raced and will benefit from the step up in distance. Selections: 1pt EW Hold On Julio 12/1

Coral 1pt EW Hadrian’s Approach 10/1 >BetVictor F/C & T/C Combination with Mr Moss added to the above two.

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[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 1.30 Sandown - 2pts win Calculated Risk @ 9/2 (PP) Posted this last time out:

3.25 Ascot - 3pts win Calculated Risk @ 7/2 (PP) John Quinn's horses are in cracking form and he doesn't send many runners down to Ascot so this is an interesting horse today. He won his handicap debut in good fashion at Sandown despite making a bad error in the closing stages and connections also are sure he wants a sound surface so is worth substantially more than the bare victory there on the deep going. It was a rock solid juvenile contest as well so the 6lb rise doesn't look restrictive at all and although this is competitive it's hard to see him not going very close. His best efforts have largely come on a sound surface and has twice been a good winner at Doncaster so this flat track, albeit the other way round, should suit as well. He's better than a 125 horse when getting his conditions in my opinion and a nice even pace looks likely which will give him a very good chance of landing the spoils.

I think he was worth a little bit more than the narrow winning margin this day as he couldn't get an out just before turning for home and was held in a bit longer than he would have liked. Did manage to get out and come home really well to get on top late on. Although he's gone up in the weights for that, Dean Pratt hops aboard to take 7lbs off to negate his penalty and returns to an already successful c&d. Everything in his favour to run another big one and can win again.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 2.40 Sandown - 2pts win Sanctuaire @ 7/2 (Hills) Paul Nicholls' runner will be delighted not to see Sprinter Sacre in the line-up today and that should allow him to revert back to his positive style. I imagine connections decided to hold him up somewhat recently as he was just setting things up for the wonderhorse and putting place claims in jeopardy. He runs well here and conditions suit once again. Was very impressive in this last year and has only run once since when not facing Henderson's champion chaser. That was a comfortable win and now should be allowed to stride out and hopefully make all, or be near the pace at least. Strong fancy.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 3.50 Sandown - 1pt win There's No Panic @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this before the Topham:

3.40 Aintree - 1pt win There's No Panic @ 14/1 (Bet365) and 1pt win Sizing Santiago @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) I think the fact that Paul Nicholls runs a horse with a rock solid chance in Fistral Beach yet he appears 2nd string suggests how highly they think of this novice and although his lack of experience over fences is a concern, he's a bold jumper and so far looks a very talented animal who should relish this test. I'm slightly concerned by the fact he can brush his hind legs through his fences but other than that he looks to have a really good chance here. All of his best form has come on a sound surface so he will relish the ground today which is pretty decent on the National course and that only serves to make his recent form all the more impressive considering he's been running on soft. He jumped well at Sandown last time out behind Soll over 3m1f and seems to stay that far so the extra stamina could come into play on the punishing run-in after the last. He has plenty of form at around this trip though and appears to be fairly progressive. Runs off the same mark today but with conditions more in his favour and with a clear round should go well. At a big price I like Peter Bowen's runner who may not be the yard's first string or fancied in the betting but we know that shocks happen on this course and I do think he's overpriced. The yard are in good form and it's well-known that he can prepare one for this course having trained Always Waining to multiple successes in this race. This horse was pulled up when last seen but the yard were 0-57 for the months of December, January and February so there's an excuse there but his horses have improved of late and this horse could enjoy this unique test. He won in November at Newbury off 3lbs lower - putting in a decent display but he does nothing in front so I think you can upgrade the run slightly. He was sent on early and idled but was holding off the runner-up quite readily at the finish. He's a decent jumper and is also a good ground horse so conditions suit and the fact he hasn't been seen since January is of little concern to me as he's gone well fresh in the past. Runs off a light weight and at a price can run well.

Just never got into a rhythm over the national fences. Was out the back and was pretty slow at his obstacles so could never really work himself into contention. Was still going when brought down at 4 out but hard to believe he'd have made any huge impression. Probably just found things happening too quickly for him as he stays comfortably further than the trip that day and I think the 3m5f could be up his street. He's run well here this season despite soft ground as he's a better horse on a sounder surface and will enjoy the trip and the return to more conventional fences I think. Runs off bottom weight and Ryan Mahon is 3-3 on the gelding and the horse stayed 3 miles at Cheltenham over hurdles and was staying on here over 3m1f on heavy two starts back. All in all has more going his way than a price of 20/1 suggests I think so is worth a go.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 14:05 Sandown Minella Forfitness is the form horse going into this race without a shadow of a doubt in my opinion and although he is the favourite, I still feel he represents some value as I expected him to be shorter. Four wins from six runs to date so he is a model of consistency, his other two efforts was a 7th placed finish in a field of 19 at Aintree and although he was beaten 21 lengths that day, I don't find that piece of form a worry considering it was a grade 2 race which was won by the very classy The New One who has went on to greater things. This was his third race and from there he made his hurdles debut in November in a class 3 maiden hurdle race at Ascot. He finished 3/12 that day and despite being well beaten, he may have just needed the run in what was his first run since April. Three runs so far in 2013 and he has progressed each time, firstly winning a class 5 maiden hurdle race at Doncaster which has worked out quite well with the 2nd and 3rd in that race both going on to win since. He then appeared at Doncaster again over a trip 3 furlongs shorter in a novice race (class 4) where he battled on well to get up and win in the dying strides by a short head which shows he has a bit of tenacity about him. Finally just 22 days ago he made his handicap hurdle debut off a mark of 135 in a listed event at Aintree where he ran out a 1 and a half length winner. I liked the way he travelled throughout the whole race and the manner he went on to win the race when asked to do so. A rise of 9lbs seems fair and the fact he drops back down into a class 2 event today is very interesting. By no means will this be an easy task but the price he is currently at attracts me big time. 5pt win Minella Forfitness @ 5/2 (WillHill) 14:40 Sandown Sanctuaire lines up again today in order to repeat his demoltion of this race last year where he hacked up by 17 lengths. Since then his form reads 3144 but the three efforts he didn't win, all went to the machine that is Sprinter Sacre so it can be excused that he hasn't got his head in front in three of those four efforts. His other win came at Kempton, where he again demolished his rivals, running out a 13 length victor. The fact he has 7 wins from 20 runs shows that he is a very capable animal on his day and to boost he has some great course form round here at Sandown with two wins and from four runs at the track and a very decent third placed finished in the Tingle Creek back in December. Finian's Rainbow has disappointed me so far this season, he doesn't look the horse that won two Grade one races last year but could be dangerous back down into this grade 2 race if bouncing back to form, but only if. 3pt win Sanctuaire @ 7/2 (WillHill - BOG) 2pt double Minella Forfitness and Sanctuaire

[beaker1]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th all at punchestown 2:30 Irish Field Chase The third and final cross-country chase of the meeting which features FRENEYS WELL who won this in 2009, 2010 and 2011 but missed the 2012 running, ZEST FOR LIFE who won the opening race of this meeting on Tuesday, OUTLAW PETE and UNCLE JUNIOR who both fell before it started to hot up in the La Touche Cup on Thursday, the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Chase runner-up, SHAKERVILZ, and the former Festival cross-country chase winner SIZING AUSTRALIA. Short List Outlaw Pete Freneys Well Sizing Australia Conclusion OUTLAW PETE won this race last year after falling when having just taken the lead in the La Touche Cup two days earlier and, if successful, this would be close to a case of déjà vu as he was travelling well again in the La Touche Cup two days ago until exiting at around the same stage. I also think this shorter trip (3m) suits him better than Uncle Junior who is the class act of the race but prefers a real test of stamina having won over 3m7f twice atCheltenham. FRENEYS WELL was only twelfth in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race but he has never showed his best at that course unlike over these banks where he has won this particular race on three occasions. He bypassed the La Touche Cup this season suggesting that the main man in these races, Enda Bolger, is intent on his claiming this race for a fourth time. Zest For Life was helped by the fall of the favourite on Tuesday in what was a far inferior race to this but he did look very happy in his work so I see him going well for a long way but ultimately fancy better horses to take his measure. SIZING AUSTRALIA isn’t quite the same horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival (finished fourth and fifth the next two years) but unless the ground is good, 3m7f stretches him there and he will be more at home over this 3m. This heavy ground isn’t ideal but he was fourth in this contest last year on similar ground and meets Outlaw Pete on 16lbs better terms. Shakervilz’s second to Big Shu was franked when the winner won the La Touche Cup here on Thursday but he has yet to win a cross country race and he hasn’t got that close in three other attempts over Punchestown’s banks. 3:10 Madra Irish Dog Foods Novice Chase Seven take their chance in this 2m2f novice chase where Willie Mullins runs two big guns in AUPCHARLIE and MIKAEL D’HAGUENET who hold a clear form advantage of their rivals. Short List Aupcharlie Dylan Ross Conclusion Despite finishing a decent third in the Powers Gold Cup last time out, I remain unconvinced that Mikael D’Haguenet is in love with jumping fences and prefer the Jewson flop, AUPCHARLIE, of the Mullins pair. Outstayed by Back In Focus at Leopardstown over 3m and then by Tofino Bay over the same trip at Naas, given that pair went on to finish 1-2 inthe NH Chase well clear of the Scottish National winner in third, there was no disgrace in either defeat and I think he has been crying out for a drop back in trip to around this distance of 2m2f given what a strong traveller and slick jumper he is. I don’t know what happened in the Jewson (though a blunder at the tenth shuffled him back and he struggled thereafter), hopefully it was just a bad day at the office and he can now show how talented he is when speed is the name of the game. DYLAN ROSS has plenty of talent but little appetite for a fight and doesn’t find as much as seems likely but every dog has its day and we can get some strange end-of-season results at this meeting. Don’t forget he had the ability to beat the RSA Chase winner Lord Windermere into second at Navan in November and was placed in a Grade 1 novice hurdle last season. Runner-up in a handicap hurdle at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, Toner D’Oudaries finally got off the mark at the sixth attempt over fences last time out but it wasn’t much of a race and he does look like a handicapper in the making whereas the other three have more natural ability. 3:45 Three Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase The last six winners have carried 11st 1lb or less (and just one winner in the last decade has carried over that weight) so lower-weighted horses looks the way to go. Willie Mullins has won three of the last eight runnings and relies on the top weight ON HIS OWN who is fresher than most having won the Boyne Hurdle and fell in the Grand National (when beaten) on his only two starts this season. This race also features the shock Irish National winner LIBERTY COUNSEL and WYCK HALL is an interesting contender for J P McManus and David Bridgwater having been ruled out of the Grand National with a setback. Short List Sword Fish Crash Fisher Bridge Conclusion We must respect the top weight On His Own given his trainer’s record in the race of three wins in eight years but lower-weighted horses have a fine record so I will concentrate on those. SWORD FISH registered his first chase victory in eight starts when successful at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and has good claims of a follow up off his featherweight (runs from 4lbs out of the handicap) for Christy Roche and J P McManus. The re-application of blinkers may have helped on that occasion as could have the less testing ground but he was backed into favouritism despite finishing unplaced on all previous seven chase starts which suggested they were expecting an improved effort. CRASH is dropping down to an attractive handicap mark and ran his best race for a while last time out at Tramore beaten only 2½ lengths after making most of the running. He is now off a stone lower mark than when finishing second at last season’s Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and has winning form here over fences. Noel Meade gave FISHER BRIDGE a run on the Flat 13 days ago which was his first run since running down the field in the Galway Plate last August which suggests it was a prep for this valuable prize. He may prefer better ground but he is a two-time winner on this course on a testing surface early in his career. 4:25 ITBA Fillies Scheme EBF Mares Hurdle The first running of this 2m2f hurdle race for mares under its new Grade 1 status (was only a Grade 3 last season) and is now worth the best part of 100,000 euros but it is has only attracted five runners. Short List Tarla Glens Melody Conclusion So much for those who argued Willie Mullins’ horses were struggling after the first two days as he banged in five winners on Thursday and it would come as no surprise if he registered a 1-2 here. TARLA is the class act in this field and is officially 10lbs the best mare over hurdles in the line up so she is clearly going to be hard to beat and this has been her target all season hence the decision to bypass a clash with Quevega at Cheltenham where she would probably have started second-favourite. Her two falls were both over fences. Oilily is next best on official ratings and is sure to strip fitter for her first run since the summer when beaten 28 lengths by Tarla last month but that is still a heck of a gap to bridge. Therefore GLENS MELODY can rate as the main danger. No match for the brilliant Annie Power last time out but she was a comfortable winner of her previous two starts having been ridden too far out of her ground when third at the Leopardstown Christmas Meeting. Shadow Eile outran her odds of 66/1 to finish fourth to Quevega at the Cheltennham Festival and had won five of her previous eight races so is clearly no mug but Swimcombe Flame looks up against it. Tarla will be hard to beat and priced accordingly so maybe the forecast with Glens Melody is the way to go. 5:00 AES Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle Disappointingly there is no Our Conor on account of heavy ground. Hmmm, he’ll be racing on it for most of next winter no doubt. And it’s not as if he is going to run again for around six months. I do hope now they know they have a cracker they won’t be wrapping him up in cotton wool. That leaves six runners of which four are trained by Willie Mullins and one of them is going to pick up what is now a poor Grade 1 race. Eleven of the last 15 winners contested the Triumph Hurdle and seven of those 11 winners finished in the first four at Cheltenham. DIAKALI held on fourth this season with STOCKTONS WING pulled up. The only other race to feature more than one winner in the last ten years (and four in the last 13 years) is the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle run at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day where Our Conor easily beat Diakali and BLOOD COTIL back in fourth. As with the Triumph Hurdle, this is a good race for the leading fancies to the extent that only one of the last dozen winners started at bigger than 7/1. In common with most of the hurdle races at this meeting it pays to be ridden from off the pace. Only two of the last 12 winners were ridden handily, notably Barizan who was a rare winner to make all over hurdles at this meeting when he shot into an immediate clear lead and never saw another horse. Diakali has shot clear of his rivals on his last two starts. Short List Diakali Stocktons Wing Conclusion Front running is not easy at this meeting but DIAKALI only has five rivals to fend off if he employs the same tactics that saw him finish second and fourth to Our Conor in the only two races that have featured more than one runner of this race in the last decade and I would argue that more than offsets that negative and he is the clear form pick to become the twelfth winner in the last 16 years to contest the Triumph Hurdle. The only other Triumph runner was STOCKTONS WING who failed to run his race but he had run Our Conor to 2½ lengths at Fairyhouse before Christmas and beat Dogora in a Grade 2 at the same course beforeCheltenham. Blood Cotil beat Stocktons Wing over Christmas but has been well beaten on his last two starts including by Diakali in the Spring Hurdle and was seventh in the Fred Winter last time out. 5:35 Sentanta Sports Handicap Hurdle Another of these massive-field handicap hurdles at this meeting in which to tread carefully, this 80,000 euros contest over 2m4f is probably the most ferocious of them all. This handicap can be argued to have only really been in existence for five years under its current guise after it received a significant prize money boost, since when Willie Mullins has taken over winning three of the last five runnings recording 1-2s last year and in 2010 and he also trained the runner-up two years ago and the third four years ago. His runners this year are MAKE YOUR MARK, BALNASLOW and THE PAPARAZZI KID. Winners regularly carried over 11st when it was just a run-of-the-mill handicap but, since the prize money injection, it has been lightly-weighted horses that have been coming to the fore with 14 of the last 15 first-three finishers carrying no more than 10st 12lbs. The exception was Philip Hobbs’ Ring The Boss who finished second in 2008 and a very rare British-trained runner. NATIVE GALLERY (Ben de Haan) is the only British runner this season. Only one of those 15 top-three finishers started any bigger than 16/1 despite the big fields so it has been a race to concentrate on those towards the head of the market. Short List Casey Top The Paparazzi Kid Make Your Mark Byerley Babe Conclusion Il Fenomeno is brought out again having won over two miles here on the opening day of the meeting but he was all out that day so whether he has recovered in time and will appreciate this extra half-mile under a 6lbs penalty are the chief concerns. The Leonard Whitmore stable trained the winner in 2008 and his CASEY TOP is interesting running off a hurdles mark of 123 having finished fourth to Al Ferof in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a chase mark of 137 back in November. He has only run once since then when tenth in the Byrne Group Plate where he dropped back after a mistake at the water jump. Balnaslow has not shown much in four starts for Gigginstown and Willie Mullins since beating Ted Veale in a point-to-point but we have to respect the yard’s record in this race though the same owner-trainer combination appear to have a stronger candidate in MAKE YOUR MARK who wears a hood for the first time. A quality novice last season, if you had told me he would only be rated 133 not long after he was made virtually favourite for the Neptune after he won at Leopardstown at last season’s Christmas Meeting 16 months down the line I would have struggled to believe you so I remain interested in him off that kind of mark which is the same mark he ran off when fourth in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last time out. The novice, THE PAPARAZZI KID, is Mullins’ third runner and looked to be given too much to do when third in a big field at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting last time out. He makes appeal off his low weight. The very much in-form BYERLEY BABE completes the short list also off a low weight chasing a hat-trick (not outside the first two on her last five starts) for Robert Tyner and J P McManus. She battled on bravely to just hold on last time out but she travelled notably well until making a mistake two out or the margin of victory would have been more comfortable. 6:10 Peggy Barry-Walsh Memorial Bumper A bumper for horses that have never run under Rules to be ridden by non-professionals so that means point-to-point runners can take part which is what four of this 19-runner field have done. In fact, MARTELLO TOWER, HIGH HANDEL and DE KAISER have all won between the flags. Short List Martello Tower Sukiyaki Jerusalem Bells Rock The World Conclusion It’s pretty much guesswork with 15 newcomers but SUKIYAKI is worth a name check being a rare bumper runner for Jim Bolger and he is not messing about booking Katie Walsh. The Mouse Morris-trained High Handel won his only start in the point-to-point arena by 20 lengths but a 748-day absence has to be a concern. I’ve been sticking with Jane Mangan’s rides in bumpers this week so will do so again and she rides JERUSALEM BELLS for Gigginstown rather than High Handel for the same owner. Therefore MARTELLO TOWER can prove best of those with winning pointing form and his win was just 41 days ago and Mags Mullins has turned to Patrick Mullins for the new owner or Our Conor, Barry Connell. And my final guess is Jessica Harrington’s ROCK THE WORLD for another lady amateur rider, Katie Harrington who rode a big bumper winner for her mother at this meeting three years ago.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th The big race of the day 3.50 Sandown 3 for me Win bet DUKE OF LUCCA 20/1 SJ Hobbs 2nd string not without a chance has done ok over the bigger fences in handicaps this term and up to longer trip now may suit worth a small win bet,. BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 25/1 E/W 1-4 SJ Irish raider has some good form but is a bit hit and miss has been quietly backed at big prices and still available at 25/1 which looks big & finally IKORODU ROAD 40/1 E/W BET 365 1-5 Has some good form and a good mark. Also Combo FC & TC for tiny stake on the three.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday April 27th 1.30 Sandown, PFIT ZIG, i recall this one running at Cheltenham behind Flaxen Flare and was not disgraced by that run. Cheltenham placed horses often go on and win more races so pleased to see Nicholls for this one despite top weight. He hasnt taken off any weight by putting a claimer up so i am confident this one should go close today 2.05 SAndown MINELLA FORFITNESS was impressive last time out at Aintree and loves the quicker ground and a flat track, an increase of 9lb may not be enough to stop him and henderson loves these hcap hurdles at Sandown. Worth keeping an eye on this for next season as i think it will challenge for some major handicaps. 2.40 Sandown SANCTUAIRE won this last season and has had to suffer watching Sprinter Sacre backside all season so should have it all its own way today on a track it rides so well. I would hope they run the others ragged and go for this. Stable companion Toubab may tank along but Sanctuaire will be up there throughout. F Rainbow still has to prove to me it retains the ability we have seen in previous years.