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kevshat

World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

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The final event (and best event) of the snooker season begins at the weekend when the World Championship starts. The draw was made today so the countdown is on now. All the action is live on the various BBC outlets, Eurosport and the betting streaming consoles and this promises to be the best WC ever. Draw can be found here: http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?event=224 Format and schedule can be found here: http://www.worldsnooker.com/staticFiles/c6/bb/0,,13165~179142,00.pdf

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Just looking through the outright betting. Can Jack Lisowski continue with his good form? I shall take the 50/1 on offer for the outright with 25/1 with most companies as an each way bet to reach the final. On his game, he has proved he can beat the best and he's the one player that I can see challenging at the very top of the game in the next year or so. Why not at this years World Championship. Even Judd Trump couldn't live with him at the recent China Open before finally losing in a final frame decider to Shaun Murphy. He's been handed a very tough bracket though and will have to potentially beat Hawkins, Selby and either Ding or Allen to secure a semi final spot.

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Osullivan now fav on betfair.... Very big ask for him to come back and win it!!!! Massive lay for me..... Trump needs to perform here and I think he has a massive chance if holding it together!! Of the outsiders maybe dott at 70's on betfair???

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Hi this is my first post, I have been around for ages but never got round to posting. Enjoy reading all tips - especially the ones from KEVSHAT across a wide range of sports. For a while now I have been wanting to back ROS for the world championship. I watched his interview for ITV the other week. This only reinforced my thoughts on him winning it. He is the defending champion but you could say he is a bit of an unknown quantity after being off for a year. However, his interview gave an insight into the man and some of his words made me think his head is in the right place and he can go out there and enjoy his snooker. Some of the reasons he gave for previous losses in some tournaments was due to the fact that he had to be perfect and he therefore put too much pressure on himself and if he didn't play perfectly (even if he won) he'd over analyse and get depressed about his performance. I just feel now that he doesn't have that pressure on him and he will get a great reception from the crowd. I feel that the 13/2 on offer with Paddy Power could seem like a massive price come 6th May. I am going to take him each way. I do follow snooker but not as intensely as football. Just for reference I see the draw has been made, do the quarter finals get drawn or is there a format ie winner of game 1 in rd 2 plays winner of game 2 in rd 2? Thanks

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Welcome to PL twobob and thank you for the kind words. To answer your question the draw is played out as drawn now so if O'Sullivan and Carter both win in the first round they will meet in the second round etc etc. Good luck with the Rocket :ok

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May A few small punts on Dott (60/1) and Gould (100/1) who are both more than capable of putting a run together and can beat anyone on their day. On current form I find it hard to look past Robertson (13/2), the kid is on fire!

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Outrights; Robertson @ 6/1 - Joint Fav with Ronnie and rightly so. Hes the form man and a tremendous player. Hes got the right attitude to the game and the will to win. Hes had one of the easier 1/4's of the draw aswell. Maguire potentially in the 1/4 finals his first real challenege but he'l be favourite in that one. Semi's will be tricky but thats expected. He should go well here and im on. Stuart Bingham 28/1 - Bingham has had a good couple of years and this price is abit big in my opinion. Hes a very capable all round player, and hes now got big game experience under his belt. Again i like his draw, Higgins in the second round potentially... but i believe hes better than Higgins now, and thats a game il look to be betting on Stuart again in 9should it come to the fore). ronnie and Carter the other 2 threats in his side. But he'l give anyone a game on his day and could go well.

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Tournament preview: 2pts ew J.Higgins to win World Championship 11/1 Coral (1/2 1-2) The top half of this draw is very much the one to focus on as it looks a lot easier to solve and given his record in the tournament it is hard to look too far than John Higgins. Higgins has shown he is still good enough to win titles having won the Shanghai Masters earlier in the season and although his form hasn’t been brilliant since then that might not be a bad thing as he’ll come into this tournament fresh which really is a good thing as you play a lot of snooker in winning this event and it is as much a mental challenge as it is a physical one. Higgins is a past master at getting ready for this tournament and having done it four times in the past he should be backed to win it a fifth time. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/world-championship-betting-john-higgins-has-the-draw-to-win-a-fifth-world-title-20130418

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Quarter previews: 2pts M.Stevens to win 2nd Quarter 10/1 Betfred One man who has a very good record here over any other tournament is Matthew Stevens. He comes into this tournament off the back of a better season than he normally has having made the World Open final and he is a master of these longer matches. He has Marco Fu in the first round which will be a bit of a tussle but if he comes through that and gets into the three session matches then he’ll be dangerous. Stevens turned up with no form whatsoever last season and made the semi finals so with better form behind him this year he can go just as well if not better. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/world-championship-betting-matthew-stevens-has-the-course-and-distance-form-to-come-through-2nd-quarter-20130419 1pt M.White to win 3rd Quarter 20/1 Betfred Michael White has a big reputation and if he can turn up to Sheffield with the form he showed in the qualifiers then he might take a bit of stopping, particularly if he is clever enough to break each match down into individual sessions. White will have no pressure on him in this tournament and we saw with Jamie Jones last year that heavy scorers who can sustain their heavy scoring can really profit if they get into a run. This is a strong section but Michael White is definitely overpriced to come through it. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/world-championship-betting-michael-white-could-be-the-surprise-package-in-the-third-quarter-20130419

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Highest break preview: 1pt ew S.Baird to make Highest Break 100/1 Skybet (1/4 1-4) In many ways this market is a bit of a lottery but like any market if you back someone or something with recent form going into it there’s every chance you’ll get a run for your money and this is no different. Anyone in this field is capable of a big break but one man who goes into the tournament in good scoring form is Sam Baird. Baird makes his debut here but in qualifying he ran in runs of 142 and 133 and he had other centuries too. He’s in good scoring form and in an open section of the draw he might have the chances to bang in a sizeable break at the Crucible at a stupid price. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/world-championship-betting-sam-baird-looks-a-crazy-price-to-make-the-highest-break-at-the-crucible-20130419

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May One other outright for me. 1pt ew M.Stevens to win World Championship 55/1 William Hill (1/2 1-2) Reasoning is as above really. Stevens has an excellent record in this tournament and with a bit more luck he could have won it a couple of times. His draw is nice enough for him to have another strong tilt at the title again.

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May

Saturday 20 April 2013 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif O'Sullivan, R v Campbell, M (10:00 BST) 1.18 6.2 100.87 %
maximize.gif Walden, R v Holt, M (10:00 BST) 1.65 2.55 99.82 %
maximize.gif Hawkins, B v Lisowski, J (14:30 BST) 1.93 2.1 99.43 %
maximize.gif Murphy, S v Gould, M (14:30 BST) 1.44 3.35 99.08 %
maximize.gif Williams, M v White, M (19:00 BST) 1.44 3.2 100.48 %
Sunday 21 April 2013 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Dott, G v Ebdon, P (10:00 BST) 1.59 2.75 99.26 %
maximize.gif Higgins, J v Davis, M (14:30 BST) 1.34 4 99.63 %
Monday 22 April 2013 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Allen, M v King, M (10:00 BST) 1.23 5 101.30 %
maximize.gif Maguire, S v Poomjaeng, D (14:30 BST) 1.16 6.8 100.47 %
maximize.gif Carter, A v Woollaston, B (19:00 BST) 1.33 4.1 99.58 %
Tuesday 23 April 2013 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Ding, Junhui v McManus, A (10:00 BST) 1.18 6.5 100.13 %
maximize.gif Stevens, M v Fu, M (10:00 BST) 1.9 2.12 99.55 %
maximize.gif Trump, J v Dale, D (14:30 BST) 1.19 6 100.70 %
maximize.gif Selby, M v Selt, M (19:00 BST) 1.14 8 100.00 %
Wednesday 24 April 2013 Player 1 Player 2 BPP
maximize.gif Robertson, N v Milkins, R (14:30 BST) 1.22 6 98.63 %
maximize.gif Bingham, S v Baird, S (19:00 BST) 1.3 4.5 99.15 %

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Saturday morning previews: 4pts M.Campbell (+4.5 frames) to beat R.O'Sullivan Evs BetVictor The last two times these two have met they have needed a deciding frame to separate them and while that was over the best of nine frames it shows the potential for this to be a closer match than people think and than the odds suggest. O’Sullivan will surely have some sort of rustiness to the fast conditions so Campbell could well grab an early lead before O’Sullivan finds his feet in the second session. Campbell will battle and he might even frustrate the Rocket and so I believe the Scot can win at least six frames in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/o-sullivan-vs-campbell-betting-ronnie-o-sullivan-can-be-kept-honest-in-his-comeback-match-20130419 4pts R.Walden vs M.Holt - Over 16.5 frames Evs BetVictor These two are both good players and I wouldn’t say either has the edge in any department. That means this should be a close match and one which could go right through to a final frame. Even though this is the first to ten I don’t see either running away with it unless one of them dramatically underperforms but given this is the World Championship I don’t expect that to be the case so I like over 16.5 frames here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/walden-vs-holt-betting-two-evenly-matched-players-can-play-out-a-tight-first-round-match-20130419

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Saturday afternoon previews: 4pts B.Hawkins to beat J.Lisowski 10/11 Stan James Barry Hawkins should be a clear favourite to me in this match. Jack Lisowski will be a big player in the future but that isn’t now. He hasn’t got much experience over the longer formats of the game and based on what he’s achieved so far the fact he’s favourite in some places is quite frankly ridiculous. Hawkins has played well all year and he’s capable of sustained bursts which could open this match right up. At 10/11 he looks a top bet. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hawkins-vs-lisowski-betting-jack-lisowski-looks-to-be-overrated-in-first-round-clash-20130419 4pts S.Murphy vs M.Gould - Over 1.5 centuries 5/6 Bet365 I think this will be a good match to watch because both men like to attack and both are heavy scorers when they get the balls open. Martin Gould is a very heavy scorer and we’ve seen him make centuries in the Shootout so we know he can make centuries here whereas Murphy is capable of scoring just as heavily. I wouldn’t be surprised if both players bang in a ton here so the 5/6 on over 1.5 centuries appeals. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murphy-vs-gould-betting-two-heavy-scorers-can-pile-in-the-big-breaks-in-crucible-opener-20130419

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Saturday evening preview: 3pts M.White to beat M.Williams 2/1 Ladbrokes Michael White is definitely overpriced going into this match. He’s a solid scorer and if Williams struggles to get in from distance he might not get in at all with the way White scores. Long potting has dogged Williams all season but he has to have that part of his game and his safety game spot on to keep White at bay. White has nothing to lose and with the inspiration the Crucible should bring him he’s worth a punt here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/williams-vs-white-betting-michael-white-could-just-surprise-his-welsh-hero-at-the-crucible-20130419

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Sunday match previews: 4pts G.Dott (-1.5 frames) to beat P.Ebdon 4/5 Boylesports I wouldn’t expect this one to be over quickly no matter what the scoreline but I do think Dott will win and win with a little bit to spare too. He brings his best game to the Crucible and should be well up for this whereas Ebdon has been off form for too long to be considered here. If practicing with O’Sullivan has done him good then he’ll be competitive but Dott should have more than enough in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dott-vs-ebdon-betting-graeme-dott-can-repeat-his-world-final-win-over-ebdon-in-opening-round-20130420 4pts J.Higgins vs M.Davis - Over 15.5 frames 8/11 BetVictor I think over this distance John Higgins will have too much for Mark Davis but there is no reason why the Sussex man can’t keep the Scot honest and push him a decent way. Davis has been performing in big tournaments now which is important for his mindset and having beaten Higgins in the UK Championship he should have the belief he can win here at the very least. I don’t think he will but I don’t think he’ll be thrashed either. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/higgins-vs-davis-betting-nothing-to-suggest-mark-davis-will-be-humiliated-in-sheffield-opener-20130420

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Judd trump 7/1 corals Great interview with ronnie in bbc2... However, it's just reinforced what I think, love ronnie but have to be a layer at the prices!!! For me judd trump 7/1 corals I think he needs this..

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Mark Williams vs Michael White Williams to lead first session 7-1 14/1 skybet he is playing well at the moment and his opponent is making his debut so he will be quite nervous

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Monday previews: 5pts M.Allen (-3.5 frames) to beat M.King 5/6 Coral Mark King is going to have to be on top form and Mark Allen under par to have any chance of winning this match but I don’t see either happening and I would expect this to be one of the more comfortable wins in the first round. Mark Allen is scoring so heavily when he gets the chances and his tactical play is that good he earns himself chances. This looks like a one sided match to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/allen-vs-king-betting-mark-allen-should-cruise-into-the-second-round-in-sheffield-20130421 3pts S.Maguire (-4.5 frames) to beat D.Poomjaeng Evs Skybet Stephen Maguire will take some stopping here and despite a very creditable effort to qualify for this tournament I don’t think Dechawat Poomjaeng will be good enough to do it. Poomjaeng will need a career best performance to win over this distance and I think it will be beyond him. Maguire is a genuine runner for this tournament and he can show that by cruising into the second round. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/maguire-vs-poomjaeng-betting-stephen-maguire-should-have-way-too-much-for-poomjaeng-20130421 4pts A.Carter vs B.Woollaston - Over 15.5 frames 8/11 BetVictor I would expect Ali Carter to win this match but I think Ben Woollaston is a good enough player and an experienced enough player to keep him honest in this match. Woollaston can score heavily when he gets going and he knows enough of a way around a table to avoid getting tonked here. Carter will fancy his chances in this tournament so I think he’ll win but no better than 10-6. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/carter-vs-woollaston-betting-ben-woollaston-can-push-carter-close-in-his-crucible-debut-20130421

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Tuesday morning previews: 4pts A.McManus (+4.5 frames) to beat D.Junhui 10/11 Boylesports It would be a major surprise if Ding Junhui doesn’t win this match but if Alan McManus can continue to score well then he can make sure Ding doesn’t have this all his own way. McManus will probably have the upper hand in the safety battles and should sneak a couple of tight and scrappy frames so the 4.5 frame head start that the Scot is getting looks a touch on the high side to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ding-vs-mcmanus-betting-alan-mcmanus-can-make-a-match-of-this-on-his-crucible-return-20130422 4pts M.Stevens vs M.Fu - Over 16.5 frames 9/10 BetVictor These two have played twice so far this season. Matthew Stevens won 6-4 in the UK Championship and Marco Fu won 5-3 in the German Masters so both matches have been close and I expect this one to be quite close too. Both men look evenly matched and I would say this is the closest match of the first round on paper. It wouldn’t be a surprise if all 19 frames are needed to decide this one but I’d be surprised if it is decided in fewer than 17. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/stevens-vs-fu-betting-this-match-looks-the-closest-of-the-first-round-matches-20130422

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Remaining Tuesday previews: 4pts J.Trump vs D.Dale - Over 15.5 frames 11/10 BetVictor These two met in this round last year and Dale was just getting on top when Trump had three frames of sensational luck to win 10-7. Since then they’ve met twice. Trump won 5-1 in the Wuxi Classic and then 4-3 in the Welsh Open in a match Dale knows he should have won. I don’t expect Judd Trump to run away with this. Dale is gutsy and when he gets a rhythm he scores well. I think he’ll keep this fairly close but rather than taking him with a 4.5 frame head start I’ll risk the over 15.5 frames in the pretty safe hope that if Dale wins it won’t be easier than 10-6. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/trump-vs-dale-betting-dominic-dale-can-keep-this-closer-than-the-odds-suggest-20130423 3pts M.Selby vs M.Selt - Over 9.5 50+ breaks Evs Paddy Power It would be one of the shocks of World Championship history were Mark Selby to lose this I think but there’s no reason why Matthew Selt can’t contribute to this match. He’s no mug even though it is his debut. Selby can be a heavy scorer when he gets going and I would expect him to score well in this match but there’s no reason why Selt can’t put a few runs together himself so I think over a match of this length the over 9.5 50+ breaks is within reach. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/selby-vs-selt-betting-both-men-can-score-nicely-in-this-first-round-match-20130423

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Wednesday afternoon preview: 4pts N.Robertson vs R.Milkins - Over 15.5 frames Evs BetVictor I would be surprised if Neil Robertson doesn’t win this match but there is enough in Robert Milkins’ game to suggest that the Gloucester man can make a game of this. Robertson has been in sublime form in recent times but he is known as a slow starter in tournaments which is to Milkins’ advantage. I like the look of over 15.5 frames here as I think Milkins is good enough for six frames and it is hard to see him winning let alone winning easier than 10-6 so I’ll take the frames rather than the handicap at the better price. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/robertson-vs-milkins-betting-neil-robertson-likely-to-be-forced-to-battle-for-first-round-win-20130423

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Wednesday evening preview: 4pts S.Bingham vs S.Baird - Over 15.5 frames 4/5 BetVictor I see no reason why Sam Baird won’t give this a good go. He’s capable of scoring very heavily as he showed in the qualifiers where he made the top break of 142 and he’s pushed Mark Selby close on the big stage before so we know it doesn’t faze him. Bingham is a good player but he can be guilty of going for one too many at times and while I expect the Essex man to win it may not be as easy as people think. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/bingham-vs-baird-betting-sam-baird-can-give-bingham-things-to-think-about-in-sheffield-20130424

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Anyone else noticed that centuries seem to be down this year? It would appear that the pockets are pretty tight this year, maybe tighter than normal. I think in recent times the total tons has been 60 in 09, 83 in 10, 74 in 11 and 71 in 12. This suggests that they can influence the ease with which the balls are accepted into the pockets. Why this might be is anyones guess, but my theory is that Hearn has gone for tight pockets to ensure a higher level of excitement as a player is less likely to win a frame in one visit as the chance of a pot missing is up. What also appears to have happened is that players are making lots of 80 even 90 breaks but when it comes to one of those last 2 to3 tricky reds situated near cushions, they are missing, due to the tighter pockets. I have sold total tons at 66 two days ago and have woken up this morning to see the line is now 59.5 to 60.5. I am tempted to go in again. Two days ago there was 1 century in the whole day, yesterday that figure was 4 including one from Trump and two from Ding. Maguire and Poomjaeng managed none in 19 frames. Today we see Trump and Dale to a finish, possibly only 4 or 5 frames needed, Ding v McManus probably a max of 4 frames, then Stevens and Fu continue (none so far in 9), whilst Robertson and Milkins get underway (the average would suggest less than 3 in the match). This evening Bingham v Baird gets underway, Selby plays to a finish v Selt and should get it done relatively quickly. So far total tons /player is as follows Ding 2 (w) Murphy 2 (w) Rocket 1 (w) Carter 1 (w) Hawkins 1 (w) Walden 1 (w) Dott 1 (w) Lisowski 1 (l) Trump (1) Players into Rnd 2 without a ton include Davis, King, Poomjaeng, White ...Selby/Selt ...Stevens/Fu can add to this list as can Bingham/Baird obviously. Looking further into the draw we have Rocket v Carter which judging on how both were playing could provide some century action. Bingham or Baird v Davis which probably wont. Murphy v Dott - Murphy might be good for 3 Stevens or Fu v Trump or Dale - Judd obviously the man most likely to score tons. Robertson or Milkins v Walden - Robbo most lilkely to trouble ton ups. White v Poomjaeng - pressure on both players who'll fancy getting through, could be a tight game Ding v King - the latter not renowned for centuries, Ding playing well, scoring well could provide ton up action. Selby or Selt v Hawkins - Selby the most likely to make tons. When I look at this list it strikes me that with the likes of Allen, Maguire, Higgins gone the market should have dropped more than 6 centuries. In their place are King, Poomjaeng and Mark Davis who are much less likely to make hundreds. Throw in the fact that Walden, Hawkins and one of Bingham or Baird will be in round 2, it doesn't look like an overly aggressive group. If there are 30 tons by the quarters I'd be surprised and as the pressure rises entering the latter stages I'd be happy having an average of 4 per match to make a profit. I am just not sure there is a huge downside, and if my theory re pockets is correct then there might still be some juice in the market selling at 60. Sell Tournament Tons with Sporting Index at 59.5

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Done some more research and in 2012: Rnd 1 - 26 centuries Rnd 2 - 23 centuries (running total 49) Q-F - 11 centuries (running total 60) S-F - 7 centuries (running total 67) Final - 3 centuries (running total 70) 2011 - only got frame score from quarters onwards... Q-F - 11 centuries S-F - 13 centuries Final - 4 centuries Figures from earlier post are in wrong order and slightly out ...it was in 09 that it was ton fest...86 http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/snooker/8005664.stm 2010 it was down to 60 http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/snooker/8627058.stm 2011 and 2012 see above... The jump from 2009 to 2010 does suggest to me that there was a move to make things tighter by the powers that be. I'd also reason that judging on what we've seen so far (11 with 6 matches to complete, but only 2 from scratch), it is unlikely to match 2012 levels of 26. I might be wrong, but the more i look at it, the more I like the sell.

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Too late now but had a bet on Bingham to win 10-1, 10-2 or 10-0. Baird himself has said in an interview that when he plays bad he plays really bad and with it being the crucible the pressure could easily get to him so I wouldn't be surprised if Bingham won by a big margin and it seems now that could be the case. Then again Baird may also come out tomorrow feeling no pressure anymore so may back him tomorrow to win a few frames just in case.

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Re: World Championship 20 Apr - 6 May Thursday previews: 3pts G.Dott to beat S.Murphy 7/4 Stan James I think Graeme Dott will go well in this match. He always seems to save his best for this venue and he played quite well against Ebdon even allowing for the fact the match was scrappy and lengthy. Shaun Murphy also played well so this should be a cracking last 16 match but Dott is like a terrier and if this gets close, and it is hard to see it not being close, then I think he can get his teeth stuck in and not let go until he is over the winning line. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/murphy-vs-dott-betting-graeme-dott-can-come-through-the-battle-of-former-champions-20130425 5pts M.White (-1.5 frames) to beat D.Poomjaeng 8/11 Paddy Power Dechawat Poomjaeng has shown already in this tournament that he merits respect and can play this great game but he will face a much different sort of pressure in this match. He’s now expected to win matches and that’s much different. Although Michael White wasn’t publicly expected to beat Mark Williams I think deep down he will have known he had a strong chance if he played well so not much has changed from his point of view. White is the better player and I expect him to prove that here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/white-vs-poomjaeng-betting-michael-white-can-end-the-run-of-the-charismatic-poomjaeng-20130425

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