Super XV 2013

[Spankyf]

Highlanders Hurricanes It's round 5 and these two NZ sides are looking like they'll be vying with the Blues for 3rd spot in the NZ conference, with the consensus being that the Hurricanes look a little more likely to do that. Highlanders home form from last season was only ok, winning 5/8 with losses to Stormers, Chiefs and the Hurricanes (by 20-26). They've recruited heavily this season with some stellar names in the ranks (Thorn, Hore and Woodcock all in the pack) and have Slade back in the pivot role after a bad showing from Sopoaga last week (he set up the first try nicely but was culpable for 14 points for the Cheetahs). Supposedly Jamie Joseph has put them through the toughest week of training they've ever had and are no doubt itching to respond to that poor loss last week. It wasn't all bad with Kade Poki playing a blinder and grabbing a hattrick. The Hurricanes, led by Conrad Smith could have been 2/3 were it not for some bad luck (and questionable refereeing from Steve Walsh) in the away bonus point loss to the Reds. They got that luck last week against the Crusaders with an intercept try to win the game by a point in which they were outscored 2 tries to 4. They are away this week and have the edge in the long term over the Highlanders and the form going into this fixture. Their backs are dangerous with Savea blowing away quality Crusaders last week on the way to a great try and Smith always provides quality running lines. I think the two sides are going to have a close one with the last 8 matches being decided by 7 or under. I think both defence's will shore up this week too. Hurricanes conceded four at home (albeit to the Crusaders) and the soft tries conceded through the 10 channel will have the home team taking kicks and keeping it tight. The average score between these two is 21 23 to the 'Canes overall and 21 20 to the Highlanders at this venue. Highlanders 1-12 @ 2.62 Under 51.5 @ 1.91

[Spankyf]

Re: Super XV 2013 Only the unders came through yesterday, slight loss. Sharks Brumbies Big game this early in the season. Bookies have the handicap about right for me at -4.5. Sharks were runners up last year and they are - like the Brumbies - unbeaten in 3 so far this season. Curiously they've only managed to score 2 tries in the 3 so far, and that includes a tryless encounter away at the Kings. With a star studded backline, many people see it as a big concern. Too early to draw conclusions like that for me though. Two changes from last week due to injury but Keegan Daniel is back which is a big plus. Brumbies are the form team of the competition with an away winning streak matching the Crusaders run of 6 straight. If they win here in Durban it will be a new record of 7. Jake White has turned the team from also-rans into a very competitive side forcing their opponents into mistakes. They're in great form in attack too with Mogg in particular outstanding so far this year. No points conceded in the second half so far. Wins are 50/50 between these two but only 1/7 for the Brumbies in Durban. As I said the handicap is about right for me but one thing about the away streak is that the opponents have been relatively weak: Lions, Rebels twice, Waratahs, Force and an impressive 12 pt win over the Hurricanes last year. Before that they had a 2 pt loss to the Bulls and two 7 pt losses to the Chiefs and the Reds early in 2012. So there's no doubting their potency away from home, and they have set up their team to fight fire with fire here with a massive pack and a first start for Sio in the front row. What a baptism of fire against Du Plessis and the Beast though! The home side lost just once at home last season to eventual champs Chiefs and put away the Stormers this season already by 12-6. As an aside, terrible shame Pocock is out for the season and Lions tour. I am going for a home win by 1-12 here again. Basically i'm going on history and stats here, and I feel the Sharks will eventually click and find some spark from their backline. Unders are likely too with the forecast and defensive strength on show, but too low for me at 41-43. Sharks 1-12 @ 2.62 Bet365 Crusaders Bulls First home game for the Crusaders coming up against a Bulls side who notched up their first away win at the Blues last week. The Bulls will be up for this after last weeks game, coming out 21 - 28 winners in Auckland. Key to their efforts were their freshness and the relentless forward battering they dished out. John Kirwan fielded a team with a lot of changes though, and i'm sure the result would have been a lot closer if they were at full strength. No changes for the Bulls would normally be a good thing but with the well documented fatigue factor for SA teams' second game in NZ, they may flag in the 2nd half. The Crusaders have won 13/20 against Bulls in modern Super Rugby and have a massive 37 - 15 average score in Christchurch. The Crusaders weren't at the races in their first game against the rejuvenated Blues, getting thumped 34 - 15. They had the game won against the Hurricanes but for an intercept try 8 minutes from time last week and scored four tries away from home which is a big result for anyone, but is sure to have put them on the warpath this week. They're a little like Italy in soccer tournaments, slow starting but always there or thereabouts, and with a full deck this week (minus a certain McCaw) I think they'll overwhelm the Bulls. The pair played each other in Pretoria last year and the Bulls came out 2 pt winners. I think the home team will be hugely motivated to get their home campaign off to a strong start and will be aware of the threat the Bulls pose. Happy to take them on the cap here. Crusaders -8.5 @ 1.917 Pinnacle

[Nobber]

Re: Super XV 2013 Spanky, Just watched game with a team called the 'Kings' playing the Chiefs. Never heard of them before but notice it's gone from Super 14 to 15. Are they a new team and, if so, where in the SH are they based ? Many thanks. Nobber.

[Spankyf]

Re: Super XV 2013 Indeed they are Nob. The Lions were South Africa's 5th team and were ousted last year for finishing bottom of the comp too many times, and were replaced by the Kings. I think the Kings are based in Port Elizabeth. Surprised and happy for them with the results so far. Thought they'd be walloped today and last week but fair play to them. I think it was expanded to 15 teams maybe 3, 4 years ago? Don't know how long it will last, the conference system is awkward for travel and if they want to include an Argentine side (possibly based in SA) they'll have to revamp it sooner or later.

[GeorgieBoyd2]

Re: Super XV 2013

Indeed they are Nob. The Lions were South Africa's 5th team and were ousted last year for finishing bottom of the comp too many times, and were replaced by the Kings. I think the Kings are based in Port Elizabeth. Surprised and happy for them with the results so far. Thought they'd be walloped today and last week but fair play to them. I think it was expanded to 15 teams maybe 3, 4 years ago? Don't know how long it will last, the conference system is awkward for travel and if they want to include an Argentine side (possibly based in SA) they'll have to revamp it sooner or later.

The Lions were not ousted for finishing last too many seasons, just last season. The Watsons had long been campaigning for a Port Elizabeth side to be represented in the Super 15 and after the promise of featuring a team made up primarily of black players the politicians 'persuaded' SARFU that this was the time...they then went out and fielded a team with less black players than any of the other teams? ...It is the primary reason why they are absolutely hated amongst South African Rugby fans as most feel they did not get their on merit and it was just another 'quota' decision based on a promise they did not keep. Even with a few surprising victories under their belts...teams have now begun to suss them out and I will be very surprised if they do not contend the relegation promotion play-offs with the Lions in June...I would have to fancy them to win that one considering they have been playing Super 15 for the previous 3 months whereas the Lions have been playing practice games against the likes of Russia Reserves et al ! ...although the safer bet would be on yellow cards and even red ones as that will be a match of utter vitriol. As for the 15 team format...it will continue in such a format for the time being. The only talk is of increasing it to include the Japanese Champions and South American champions (presumably an Argentinian team) in the near future, although this will depend on whether the World Club Series that is being touted gets off the ground as logistically there will not be enough time to extend it if that happens. I know all this **** cos I live in South Africa (Blue Bulls season ticket holder).

[ThemanwiththeSTATS]

Bulls just quietly going about their business without the fanfare that follows the chiefs and crusaders.

[GeorgieBoyd2]

Re: Super XV 2013

Bulls just quietly going about their business without the fanfare that follows the chiefs and crusaders.

Surprising really that the team seems to have performed better despite the long-term injuries to 3 star players in terms of Basson / Hougaard / Kirchener...the cause has been helped this year with our immense home form and the ridiculous amounts of injuries that both the Sharks and Stormers have had this year.

[Spankyf]

Re: Super XV 2013 Another great win for the Bulls this weekend but surely the story of the season is the other two SA sides. Who'd have thought the Cheetahs would have a playoff spot and the Kings would be 3rd off bottom? Great competition to watch this year.

[DeMMa]

Re: Super XV 2013 Tonight HIGHLANDERS @ $2.00 They will beat Rebels & I am a rebels member. Cheers.

[Nobber]

Re: Super XV 2013

Tonight HIGHLANDERS @ $2.00 They will beat Rebels & I am a rebels member. Cheers.

Now THAT was unbelievable. Checked in at half-time and I was cursing that I hadn't had a bet.

[DeMMa]

Re: Super XV 2013 That was nonsence. 31-7 up then lose lol

[daveypnz]

Re: Super XV 2013 anyone betting on the final? leaning chiefs -8.5, travel will surely catch upto the brumbies

[Spankyf]

Re: Super XV 2013 Just for watching for me mate. Styles are somewhat similar (rely on defence, strike from deep), got burned opposing the Brumbies in the last game so even with the travel factor favouring a home win, I will stay away. Push came to shove i'd take Chiefs by 1-12 but i'll steer clear of this one.

[Spankyf]

Re: Super XV 2013 Ended up taking Brumbies +8. Based on their away form for the season, record against the Chiefs, preparation by White and it's a final. Chiefs won 13+ just once all year so there's scant evidence to suggest a walloping. Also took a small punt on Brumbies/Chiefs HT/FT.