Jumps Racing - Friday 8th March

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.20 Sandown - 2pts win Nemo Spirit @ 5/1 (Bet365) I posted this on his latest run:

3.10 Plumpton - 2pts win Nemo Spirit @ 8/1 (Bet365) It's fair to say this horse's last couple of runs have been better than the bare result and if he's allowed to run today then he's more than capable of getting involved. He's yet to win over hurdles but stays well on the flat and has won 3 races in that sphere yet has been held up to get the trip of late (or has he?) over hurdles. Given a couple of bizarre rides from a 7lb claimer the last twice - holding him up (including in a 5 runner field, although that came on seasonal return so can be forgiven a little for defeat) but last time was a bit of a joke really. Was never involved but had plenty left in the tank as he stayed on basically on the bridle past rivals to finish a 12l 7th. His mark is now 8lbs lower than two starts back which may be just the ticket and the tongue-tie returns today with Tom Cannon claiming 3lbs taking over on board. Hopefully this points to a more positive run - given he's been a front-runner nearly all of his career - and can therefore deliver the full promise of his ability. Difficult to gauge but the market speaks favourably in the early parts of today and with the aforementioned changes today, I'm hoping he gets a bit more assistance from the saddle.

I may well get my fingers burned again this afternoon but it was once again a bemusing effort to say the least. I will say that the winner won very well in the end but once more this horse was given little to no chance of getting involved from the rear of the field on a tight track. At least if he's held up today he's got a stiffer track to help but I don't really understand why he seemingly has to be held-up these days - unless it's just to get his mark down. He again finished well to be 3rd last time in a better race than this and I just feel if he's ridden more positively he'll win off this mark. His two most recent wins (on flat) have come when making all and I just hope he doesn't get too far back today as he doesn't do anything too quickly - so making up a lot of ground (especially on a sharp track) isn't really his game in my eyes. Anyway, he holds every form chance here and has probably the best jockey on board in this military amateur riders event. It's a weak race, a fairly small field should suit and fingers crossed he can run to the best of his ability this afternoon. 2.40 Ayr - 1pt win Daasij @ 10/1 (Bet365) Posted this last time out:

1.50 Ayr - 2pts win Daasij @ 14/1 (SJ) I find the price of this horse a little bit hard to understand but I suppose the market is often correct. However, I'm going to chance that they're just totally wrong as prior to disappointing last time out, he'd won four on the bounce. Three of those came in 2011 but scored on his return this year after 18 months off the track. That came over this c&d off a 7lb lower mark where he forged on to score by 4l. He didn't jump nor travel like he can at Wetherby last time out but it's plausible he suffered from the 'bounce' factor and has been given a month off since to try and freshen him up. If he returns to the form he was in two starts ago then he must have a chance on ground he likes. You may need a strong stayer to win this and although Boris The Blade and Bollin Fiona appear to have that in abundance, and should be staying on, my selection has the advantage of having more speed than those two. When on song he can travel well and certainly finds at the end of his races so the stayers may be plodding on but I'm hopeful that Lucy Alexander can get first run (if starting her challenge in front of these) under a pretty light weight for these conditions.

The market got it spot on in the end as he was under pressure from halfway and was pulled up 3 out. It was a really bad performance but I'm keeping the faith as he is a different horse on a going day and has been given a two month break to hopefully refind his spark. He won first time out this season so is capable when fresh and the heavy ground wouldn't have been ideal either, despite him winning on soft in the past. His other five career successes have come with "good" in the going description so will be happier on this surface and the early market signals are more positive today. The yard have had a couple of recent winners and we should know if we're on for a better run quite early on in this as he's never gone with much enthusiasm the last twice. 4.20 Ayr - 3pts win Mac Steamy @ 4/1 (Boyles) The money's coming for this so trying to get this done quickly but I think he has a monster chance. Not sure why Spirit of a Nation is favourite as he really should have won last time and this is harder. Not one for my money at all. Romany Ryme drops right back in trip here and although a slight drop may suit I still think further is ideal. My selection definitely will relish the step back down to 2m4f. He was a monster eyecatcher for me last time when trading at 1.98 in the run over 3m2f at Catterick. He was sent off at 13/2 that day so that tells the story of how well he travelled. He was keen throughout but loomed up powerfully rounding the bend (travelled best of all) but couldn't pick up. Was a simple story of him using up too much energy through the race and not having much left over a trip too far on softish ground. Drops back to a similar trip as when 3rd at Wetherby two starts ago in a novice race where the winner looks decent (fell next time so hard to assess form) and the 2nd was runner-up in a handicap off 123 next time. My selection runs off 103 today and the better ground also should suit (sire has a much better record with progeny on a sounder surface). This isn't strong and he should finish his race off much stronger today back down in trip. Think he'll take a lot of beating.

[Trotter]

Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th March This is my BBotD which I posted last night..........

Sand 2.50 - Olympian Boy - win at 11/4 bog wm hill Has ran well over this Cd the last twice, finishing 2nd when just tiring in heavy ground, then winning last time on better ground Up in the weights for that win but this looks an easier race yard has had 3 wins and a 2nd from last 5 runners Fingers crossed the ground doesn't go against him ( it's been a bit drizzly all day in the London area and still is)