Xtc12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers I presume you are using level stakes? Any game close to the cut=off point can be done as close to kick off as possible if close to PC on the day. If not I think its a chance you have to take even though it would not fit the criteria above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Yes I am using level stakes. Although this was one of my first thoughts when I opened up this thread. I do not know whether there is a better staking plan then level stakes when dealing with low strike rates. Now that I have my system criteria settled, I would like to explore any other ways to squeeze as much potential profit from it as possible and I know staking strategies can add value to systems. But it is not a subject that I have done too much research on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers The only thing I know that could possibly provide the data is data.betfair.com , but I haven't used it myself. It is frustrating to shop around for odds as I like to keep things central in Pinnacle, annoying when random (usually poor odds) bookies like WH and Coral come up with best odds 5% higher than Pinn in random games. It's necessary but I hate using such bookies! Despite them being 'hopeless', I have high hopes for those 6 picks they actually look good. Touch wood. And 5-6 picks per week is a decent amount with many other lower divisions as possibilities as well. With an avg 20-30% strike rate you should get average 1 winner per week to prevent long losing streaks/big drawdowns. The advantage of adding leagues :) I usually lower/up my stakes according to results, even with low strike rates e.g. 20-30%, but that's OK so far as I'm winning. There are potentially long losing streaks with this one (but less long now that there are 5 leagues in it) so I would be inclined to do fixed stakes with conservative 1% stakes. (With others of low strike rates of 20-30% I do more aggressive 2% but that's because I'm pretty confident now.) However none of this is anything you didn't know/weren't doing already, most probably, it would probably take an expert/someone at least quite proficient in staking strategies to get more out of this as there's obviously real potential here. I will be waiting for the odds right before the match - those are what the back testing is based on so probably most reliable to look for the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers I have gathered together all of the data for all five active leagues that I will be using and applied the system to the past 4 seasons. I found that the longest consecutive losing streak was 22 selections in the dark days of May 2012. This also seems to dispel the myth that results go crazy at the end of the season. Quite the opposite it seems. Favourites often win towards the end of the season. Another stat to digest is that of all the selections where we back Home Win, only 6% end up 1-0 to the home team. So we would be needing an average of about 16-17 on 1-0 to even think about profiting on that market. But looking at this weeks selections, the correct score odds for 1-0 are QPR 23.00 @ Betvictor Wolfsburg 26.00 @ Betvictor Granada 36.00 @ Paddy Power and 45.00 at Betdaq Reims 9.50 @ 188Bet Zwolle 15.00 @ Coral Waalwijk 23.00 @ Coral So maybe there is profit to be made here as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Well if the average SR is approx 20%, then we need the 1-0 odds to be > 3.3x straight home win odds. It's mighty close e.g. QPR 7.5 vs 23, Wolfsburg 9.6 vs 26 . Maybe once again separate by league and there might be some openings where particular leagues over the years seem to have more 1-0 scorelines, and/or better 1-0 odds. Since we can't get historical correct score odds, testing would simply be restricted to relative strike rate between home wins vs 1-0 scores. Then maybe observing the odds in any leagues with potential for profit, as time goes on, for the next few weeks or so, to compare home wins vs 1-0 scores. What about winning margin by 1? As the home team being the underdog struggles to win by more than 1 in most instances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Some reason missed out Sochaux vs PSG is 8.3 for home team to win. Therefore taking 4.33 with Pinnacle for the draw which makes 7 selections for this week A reminder of the other six 17th Feb Reims vs St Etienne 4.57 @ Pinnacle 17th Feb Zwolle vs Feyenoord 4.54 @ Pinnacle 17th Feb Waalwijk vs Ajax 6.5 @ Betvictor Back QPR vs Man United @ 7.5 Betvictor Back Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich @ 9.6 Betfair Back Granada vs Barcelona @ 10.5 Betvictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Granada is now 13.5 on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Lol, I just took a look at some of the games and the same odds (11) on b365 are being offered for Granada to win as the winning margin of 1, so that is a bust. ;-O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers A good effort from Granada but Messi once again did the business for Barca and Bayern comfortable defeated Wolfsburg. Interesting that Granada moved out to 13.5 on Betfair which would have qualified for backing the draw rather than the home win. So will not be placing the bets till as late as possible in future Four matches today to look forward to. I didn't realise the QPR vs United match was not till next weekend so no doubt there will be some additional selections to add to that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Some reason missed out Sochaux vs PSG is 8.3 for home team to win. Therefore taking 4.33 with Pinnacle for the draw which makes 7 selections for this week A reminder of the other six 17th Feb Reims vs St Etienne 4.57 @ Pinnacle 17th Feb Zwolle vs Feyenoord 4.54 @ Pinnacle 17th Feb Waalwijk vs Ajax 6.5 @ Betvictor Back QPR vs Man United @ 7.5 Betvictor Back Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich @ 9.6 Betfair Back Granada vs Barcelona @ 10.5 Betvictor :wall Sochaux get a great win over French league leaders Paris St Germain which would have been great at 8.3. Unfortunately, my system dictates to back the draw at over 6 in France so no win. No win also for Reims who managed a good draw against St Etienne. But better news as Zwolle beat Feyenoord 3-2. Finally Waalwijk suffered a comfortable defeat against Ajax. So the totals read 8 selections 25 % SR 44% yield Next weeks selections are as follows 22nd Feb Eredivisie Back Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen 23rd Feb Premier League Back QPR vs Man United @ 7.5 Betvictor 23rd Feb La Liga Back Deportivo vs Real Madrid 24th Feb Bundesliga Back B. Mgladbach vs B Dortmund Odds to be confirmed nearer kick off time (apart from QPR - already selected last week) thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Shrew Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Shame about Sochaux, but still looks promising with newly added leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers :wall Sochaux get a great win over French league leaders Paris St Germain which would have been great at 8.3. Unfortunately, my system dictates to back the draw at over 6 in France so no win. No win also for Reims who managed a good draw against St Etienne. But better news as Zwolle beat Feyenoord 3-2. Finally Waalwijk suffered a comfortable defeat against Ajax. So the totals read 8 selections 25 % SR 44% yield Next weeks selections are as follows 22nd Feb Eredivisie Back Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen 23rd Feb Premier League Back QPR vs Man United @ 7.5 Betvictor 23rd Feb La Liga Back Deportivo vs Real Madrid 24th Feb Bundesliga Back B. Mgladbach vs B Dortmund Odds to be confirmed nearer kick off time (apart from QPR - already selected last week) thanks Excellent work Kingspur :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Good start Kingspur :nana... I presume you will be updating your data every week to see if there is any change in the cut-off point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Good start Kingspur :nana... I presume you will be updating your data every week to see if there is any change in the cut-off point. I'll certainly be looking to take a look at the end of the season to see if the Live betting has followed the same sort of behaviour as the back testing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers If I just layed the favs of the 6 selections one unit per selection I would have won 1.75 units. Maybe worth thinking of this in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Sorry, lay the favs of the 7 selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
only1woz Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers At the moment, Willem are down to 3.5 so wouldn't qualify. Also, having looked at the Deportivo v Madrid match, of the last 13 matches played at this stadium between the two sides, Deportivo have won 9 and drawn 3, losing only once :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Also, having looked at the Deportivo v Madrid match, of the last 13 matches played at this stadium between the two sides, Deportivo have won 9 and drawn 3, losing only once :loon Really??? That is crazy. And yet they are still at 9.00 at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Well I am off to watch BorehamWood vs the mighty Dover Athletic later today so am taking the odds now as follows: 2nd Feb Eredivisie Back Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen @ 23rd Feb Premier League Back QPR vs Man United @ 7.5 Betvictor (Glad I took these last week as now down to 6.5) 23rd Feb La Liga Back Deportivo vs Real Madrid 24th Feb Bundesliga Back B. Mgladbach vs B Dortmund @ 5.5 William Hill And the following have just snuck in to the reckoning Today Nancy vs St Etienne @ 4.05 Pinnacle Tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Somehow managed to hit enter too soon Well I am off to watch BorehamWood vs the mighty Dover Athletic later today so am taking the odds now as follows: 23rd Feb Premier League Back QPR vs Man United @ 7.5 Betvictor (Glad I took these last week as now down to 6.5) 23rd Feb La Liga Back Deportivo vs Real Madrid @ 8.5 Stan James 24th Feb Bundesliga Back B. Mgladbach vs B Dortmund @ 5.5 William Hill And the following have just snuck in to the reckoning Today Nancy vs St Etienne @ 4.05 Pinnacle Tomorrow Gr Furth vs Leverkusen @ 4.90 188Bet Willem II played last night but did not make it to the 4.00 cut off So 5 selections. Lets hope we can keep up with our expected 20% SR and hit a winner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers QPR have lost comfortably, and with Nancy 0-2 down at half-time it seem we are left with Deportivo who are 1-0 up against Real Madrid at half-time. Come on boys!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers So Deportivo couldn't hang on and the 2 German matches ended up both as draws. So after 13 bets, we are at 15% Strike Rate and -11% yield. However, that is the nature of this beast. Low strike rates and the occasional big win to bump the figures up. Looking forward to next weeks selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers so here are the potential selections for this week 2nd March Wigan vs Liverpool Currently at 4.5 with a number of bookmakers including BetVictor 2nd March Reims vs Paris SG Currently at 7.5 with Betvictor so would be backing draw at 4.33 with Bet 365 3rd March Stade Brest vs Lyon Currently at 4.5 with Bet365 3rd March Hoffenheim vs B Munich Currently at 11 with Betvictor & 13.3 at Betfair 4th March Aston Villa vs Man City Currently at 7.5 with Betvictor Odds will be taken nearer kick off dates. These odds are just the current values Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers So Deportivo couldn't hang on and the 2 German matches ended up both as draws. So after 13 bets, we are at 15% Strike Rate and -11% yield. However, that is the nature of this beast. Low strike rates and the occasional big win to bump the figures up. Looking forward to next weeks selections Seems fine so far, going to plan. I don't think it will differ from the successful backtesting but we will see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Right then. Time to place our bets for the weekend games. Starting with: Back Wigan vs Liverpool @ 4.5 with Bet365 Back Draw with Reims vs PSG @ 4.33 with Ladbrokes (Reims 7.5 to win with Boylesports so need to back the draw) Back Brest vs Lyon @ 4.5 with Bet365 Back Draw with Hoffenheim vs B Munich @ 6.5 with BWin (Hoffenheim 13.1 to win with Pinnacle so need to back the draw) Back Aston Villa vs Man City @ 7.5 with Bet365 I think my favourite bet from here is the Wigan vs Liverpool match. Liverpool are really ordinary this year and I think 4.5 represents great value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Right then. Time to place our bets for the weekend games. Starting with: Back Wigan vs Liverpool @ 4.5 with Bet365 Back Draw with Reims vs PSG @ 4.33 with Ladbrokes (Reims 7.5 to win with Boylesports so need to back the draw) Back Brest vs Lyon @ 4.5 with Bet365 Back Draw with Hoffenheim vs B Munich @ 6.5 with BWin (Hoffenheim 13.1 to win with Pinnacle so need to back the draw) Back Aston Villa vs Man City @ 7.5 with Bet365 I think my favourite bet from here is the Wigan vs Liverpool match. Liverpool are really ordinary this year and I think 4.5 represents great value. :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall I don't believe it. For a second time, I lose out because I picked the draw rather than the even bigger Home Win bet. This time is was Reims who shocked PSG. Maybe I just need to keep to the 12.5 system for all leagues and not over complicate matters. Elsewhere, Liverpool completely rub my nose in it by thrashing Wigan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Have you considered home win-draw double chance? If odds are around 12 you should be able to get around 4 on double chance...? Just a thought. If all the data in backtesting has draws better over many many games it would be a bit premature to change it based on 2 results. Even though I agree it's very frustrating! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers According to my data there were indeed 7 wins that season, but all at low odds hence no profit. The odds I use are the 'Maximum Odds' from Footballdata.co.uk which comes from the best odds offered at kick off by a bookie. Here are the seven winners according to my data [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD] Date [/TD] [TD] Match [/TD] [TD] Score [/TD] [TD] Odds [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 21/9/2011 [/TD] [TD] Caen vs Lyon [/TD] [TD] 1-0 [/TD] [TD] 4.5 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 18/12/2011 [/TD] [TD] Ajaccio vs Rennes [/TD] [TD] 1-0 [/TD] [TD] 5.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 26/2/2012 [/TD] [TD] Brest vs Marseilles [/TD] [TD] 1-0 [/TD] [TD] 4.22 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 9/3/2012 [/TD] [TD] Ajaccio vs Marseilles [/TD] [TD] 1-0 [/TD] [TD] 4.4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 31/3/2012 [/TD] [TD] Nancy vs Paris St Germain [/TD] [TD] 2-1 [/TD] [TD] 4.42 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 7/4/2012 [/TD] [TD] Brest vs Lille [/TD] [TD] 3-1 [/TD] [TD] 5.75 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] 15/4/2012 [/TD] [TD] Lorient vs Montpellier [/TD] [TD] 2-1 [/TD] [TD] 4.00 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Just a thought, I wonder what the odds are for Correct Score 1-0 for teams at 4.00 and over? I don't have any access to historical data for correct score so no way of knowing. But if anybody knows of if there are any historical data sources for correct score then I would be interested to analyse it Hi Kingspur if you are just looking for the above games try odds portal.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingspur Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Have you considered home win-draw double chance? If odds are around 12 you should be able to get around 4 on double chance...? Just a thought. If all the data in backtesting has draws better over many many games it would be a bit premature to change it based on 2 results. Even though I agree it's very frustrating! Yes, you are of course right. That is the reason I sometimes prefer testing systems and backtesting because you get the instant satisfaction of long term results rather than the frustations that go with the highs and lows of live betting on a system. Xtc- Yes I have recently come across Oddsportal and it is a fantastic resource. I am hoping to research all of the worlds leagues that are on there to see if there are any other leagues where the no hopers are providing value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Re: Backing No Chance Homers Plenty of backtesting for you then! maybe you could get something in Azerbaijan or namibia :lol or wherever thant site takes you. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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