Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase

[Sir Puntalot]

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[bowles10]

Re: Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase Henderson likes to win this race run in the memory of his father. I have noticed TETLAMI is available at 20/1 with Hills but cannot take that as they are yet to go NRNB which is a disgrace to be honest. The horse only has 10st 4lb and is about 32 on the list so needs a few to come out to get in. I feel the horse lightly campaigned and kept out of the big races may have a chance here. WAs 9th in the supreme at last years festival when i quietly fancied it but it wasn't to be. I'm taking the 14/1 with Bet365 NRNB now.

[beaker1]

Re: Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Oiseau De Nuit became the highest-rated winner since 1997 when successful off a handicap mark of 145 two years ago and in doing so he also put an end to the 0-46 record of horses set to carry over 11st before jockeys’ allowances since Edredon Bleu won in 1998. The last winner to be officially rated over 145 was My Young Man 21 years ago though Tanks For That finished second off 149 last year. That’s strong enough to make me overlook the top eight in the handicap; Petit Robin, French Opera, His Excellency, Tanks For That, Kumbeshwar, Oiseau De Nuit, Benefficient and Ulck Du Lin. Nine of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 129-134 (and they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008) but fewer horses are getting in off that kind of rating these days as the race grows in quality. Qualifiers, however, this season are Parsnip Pete and Gus Macrae. Novices has a better than one-in-three strike rate over the last three decades or so which is particularly catching (won 12 of the last 31 runnings) but more and more are running these days so the edge is slipping away as choosing from two or three is a darn sight easier than from six or seven. This season’s novices are the Arkle third, His Excellency, Benefficient (if he turns out again 24 hours after his Jewson win), Drumshambo, Marshal Zhukov, Tetlami, Alderwood, Viva Colonia and Parsnip Pete. Given that novices have such a strong Grand Annual record, it should not come as a shock to note that lightly-raced chasers very much hold the call to the extent that 13 of the last 14 winners had contested no more than 12 steeplechases. Therefore, if you are going to oppose a first-season chaser, I strongly advise that you keep the faith with a young, progressive horse especially in light of the fact that 49 of the last 56 win-and-placed horses were filled by horses under the age of ten. Horses aged in double figures to oppose are Petit Robin, French Opera, Tanks For That, Oiseau De Nuit, Oh Crick and King Edmund. Seven of the last eight British-trained winners had won at Cheltenham before with last year’s winner, Bellvano, being the exception. That is a positive for French Opera, His Excellency, Thanks For That, Oiseau De Nuit, Tetlami, Alderwood, Shooters Wood, Oh Crick and Tatenen. Nicky Henderson has held a strong record since this handicap was named in his father’s honour in 2004 which included a 1-2-4 last season in addition to Greenhope winning in 2006. In fact since 2004, the Seven Barrows team have saddled two winners, three runners-up (two of which were novices) and two other placed horses from 24 runners and they have attacked the race in style this year by declaring Petit Robin, French Opera, Tanks For That, Kid Cassidy, Tetlami and Anquetta. Punters have latched onto Paul Nicholls in a big way by sending off one of his representatives favourite in five of the last nine seasons collecting twice courtesy of St Pirran and Andreas and he runs Ulck Du Lin and Shooters Wood. Having posted four winners and three seconds in the Grand Annual during the last 13 renewals, outside of the cross-country race, this is the handicap chase at the Festival that the Irish have sussed out how to crack. It is not just the Grand National for which Irish trainers like to keep their chase mark protected before the weights are issued as their last three Grand Annual winners all had their final spin over hurdles (as did Nicky Henderson’s Greenhope). Their runners this season are Benefficient (if he runs) and Alderwood. Since Katabatic won following a 60-day absence back in 1990, of the subsequent 21 Grand Annual winners, only Fota Island has won this Festival handicap following a break of over of 45 days. Maybe it is a coincidence or maybe it isn’t but the last two horses to defy over a 45-day absence had the class to win or finish second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase 12 months later. Horses off the course for longer than 45 days are Kumbeshwar, Ulck Du Lin, Kid Cassidy, Rody, Short List ALDERWOOD TETLAMI PARSNIP PETE GUS MACRAE ANQUETTA Conclusion Once we take out those too high in the ratings, too old or have been off the course too long, it’s a case of which of the remaining 12 horses hit the most positive trends and TETLAMI and ALDERWOOD come out on top being novices, course winners and either trained by Henderson or in Ireland. Alderwood is the narrow preference being a previous Festival winner who is off a lower mark than his hurdles rating and owned by J P McManus who has had a winner of this race and a number of others run very well. The bottom two in the handicap fit into the ratings category so I will also include the novice PARSNIP PETE plus GUS MACRAE and I would like one more Henderson horse given his fine record so the lightly-weight ANQUETTA gets that vote having finished fourth in this race last year

[BillyHills]

Re: Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase

Tough handicap to finish the Festival with and its obvious that Nicky Henderson is trying his best to win this race for third time by shooting six bullets at it, a race dear to his heart and the two to concentrate on are French Opera and Tetlami. My idea of the winner is Viva Colonia for Danny Cook and Brian Ellison, he is improving over fences and will like this better ground and could be very well handicapped. Selections: 2pts EW Viva Colonia 14/1

Stan James 1pt EW French Opera 16/1 >Boylesports

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[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Friday 5:15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 5.15 Cheltenham - 2pts win Rody @ 10/1 (VC) This is another race where unexposed types tend to thrive and also it's difficult to carry a lot of weight historically. Tom George's runner fits both trends and is improving at a good race of knots. I think he's got a huge chance at a solid price here as his form has a lot of substance to it. He's progressed really well since winning at Leicester last February. He was beaten 2l on his reappearance by Drumshambo (probably just needing the run) with that one rated 120 (runs off 142 today). My selection got 5lbs there and receives 2lbs today but I think he can still reverse the form today given the progression shown and given Venetia Williams' charge had the fitness advantage that day. Since that 2nd Rody has won well twice from two starts. He won by 4l at Wincanton - beating a horse running off 104 who is now off 132 so it's strong form - and won even further last time off a mark of 127. He was 8l clear at the line and going further away at Warwick with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all winning since (5th over hurdles). Again that's very strong form and the track probably wasn't ideal either. He was under pressure before the runner-up and only a length and a half up over the last but finished 8l ahead at the line so the stiffer track here should suit well and proved himself capable of going left-handed there as well. Has gone up another 13lbs here but beware of an in-form horse and the substance of his form along with the suitability of this race make him an attractive betting proposition.