Australian Open 2013

[CzechPunter]

This should be interesting :ok.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Having had a close look at the draw for both tournaments, here's what I'm taking in the outright markets. Essentially, I've picked a player from each half of both draws plus a 'wildcard' pick for both the men and women, and I'll be laying off (or backing out) if any of them reach the final. This is because I would like to go each-way, but I only use Betfair, and although there is a 'to reach the final' market, there's very little money in it. Juan Martin Del Potro to win Australian Open @ 25.00 Betfair David Ferrer to win Australian Open @ 32.00 Betfair Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win Australian Open @ 70.00 Betfair The obvious dangers in Del Potro's half are Federer and Murray, but he has beaten both players in the past and is more than capable of doing so in this tournament in my opinion. I thought he finished last season strongly, with the exception of the debacle that was Paris just prior to the Tour Finals, winning titles in Vienna and Basel (where he beat Federer in the final) and running Djokovic close in London. He's currently playing in the Kooyong exhibition, and has reached the final, so he will have had a few matches to loosen up ahead of the start of this tournament. I think Del Potro could have a big year this year, and I'm hoping it starts in Melbourne. Ferrer is in Djokovic's half, but he has to be my pick as Djokovic is so short. He's another player who finished last season in great form, winning titles in Valencia and Paris (where he seemed to be the only top player taking the tournament seriously). He did well at the Tour Finals, winning two out of his three matches, and he's carried that good form into this season. He had a good run in Doha, and he won the title in Auckland. I like to back players that are used to winning, and Ferrer lead the tour in wins last season. I think he will have another solid season this year, and I'll back him to take advantage in this tournament if Djokovic is not at his best. Tsonga is in the bottom half of the draw, along with Federer, Murray and Del Potro. He's done well at this tournament in the past, and seems to enjoy himself here. He started this season at the Hopman Cup, winning three matches, before being forced to pull out due to a hamstring injury. He was forced to miss Sydney this week, and that is the 'wildcard' element of this pick - the status of his injury is unknown. I'm prepared to take a chance that the injury is not too severe, and that he will be able to recover in time for his first match of the tournament. If he's able to shake off his injury, he's capable of going far during the next fortnight. Lay Serena Williams to win Australian Open @ 2.00 Betfair Back Li Na to win Australian Open @ 23.00 Betfair Back Venus Williams to win Australian Open @ 130.00 Betfair Serena Williams is in the top half of the draw, where on paper the main competition consists of Azarenka, Errani and Kvitova. Azarenka is struggling with a toe inury, Errani doesn't look to have made the best of starts to the season and Kvitova has been out of form for a while. Despite this, I think Williams is too short. There's no doubt that she deserves to be the favourite, but she's been knocked out of slams recently by players that you would have thought had little chance of beating her. Last year she lost to Makarova in this tournament, and she also lost to Razzano at the French Open. As such, I'm hoping that another player is able to emerge from William's half of the draw, although I'm not going to speculate on who it might be. From the bottom half of the draw, the main contenders on paper are Sharapova, Radwanska, Kerber and Li Na. Sharapova pulled out of Brisbane because of a shoulder injury, and Kerber has never gone beyond the third round here. I considered Radwanska, but settled on Li Na. Both players have started the season strongly, with Radwanska heading into this tournament unbeaten after winning consecutive titles in Auckland and Sydney, and Li Na winning the title in Shenzhen. The reason I went for Li Na over Radwanska is because I think there is more value in the price, and also because although Radwanska beat Li Na in Sydney, I would favour her to progress if they met in this tournament. She leads the h2h on hard comprehensively, and that defeat earlier this week might have had at least something to do with Li Na wanting a rest. Overall, she is in good form, has performed well here in the past, and I think she is well placed to do so again. Venus Williams is also in the bottom half of the draw, and if she is healthy, I still think she has the potential to get to the latter stages of Grand Slams. She was playing well at the end of last season, winning the title in Luxembourg, and she looks to have made a good start to this season. She played three matches at the Hopman Cup and won them all, and even though some of the matches were not straightforward, I'm sure she will be feeling confident ahead of this tournament. A fully fit Venus Williams is a dangerous opponent for anybody in the women's game, and at this price I'm prepared to chance that she will continue her good form with a decent showing here.