The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

[RIO2014]

SPURS are 200/1 with Victor, Bluesq, 888 and 188 and Betfair, 150/1 most other places to WIN, yes win the Premier League. I for one think this is great value, but outstanding value to trade on, In five games from now alone they will be in double figures, and could drop like a stone once the play Man utd, depending on other results. Next 5 games. A. sunderland H.Reading A.qpr H.man utd A.norwich EA will miss the last 3 of these, and possibly the next 1 or 2 if TOGO hit the semis n final, but that it, The full back BAE, wont be going anyhow.(and he may be back within a month or so) Spurs are hitting a rich vein of form, with their best player(and best player in the prem) having a mid season break of his own, were ever you look they now have cover on the park with players coming back from injury. The min from the above games will be 11 points, which will drop their price to under 100/1, you could take your 100% profit then, or carry on the ride. If they turn Man utd over after 2 wins before that, expect no bigger than 33/1. The above for me is outstanding value, and who knows if results go their way over the next few months, they may be lifting a prem league title. And we are all quids in.(free holidays on the enemy:cow) There is only one stumbling block IMO, that is their manager, If they are in a challenging position, I hope his nerve does not go, and starts to tinker, anyhow thats a long way off. For now get the value, and lets hit them square in the nuts. GL all

[Jase82]

This isn't my area of expertise as I don't trade but why wouldn't you just wait until their price hits the 33/1 or lower using your judgement, and just LAY the fcuk out of them?

[RIO2014]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

This isn't my area of expertise as I don't trade but why wouldn't you just wait until their price hits the 33/1 or lower using your judgement' date=' and just LAY the fcuk out of them?[/quote'] Say we had £20 at 200/1(3980 profit) for arguments sake...When they hit 100/1 on the exchange, and they will. You then trade/lay your initial lay out,,ie £20, you have lost/won nothing at this point, but you still have £2000 to play with as a free bet for spurs to win the league. Then we wait, if and when it does reach 33/1, you start trading for your profit, an instant profit of £60 or so, and the lower they get, if you wait the higher you receive. The voucher of whatever amount at 200/1, is guranteed money IMO. I have backed them at over 200/1 before yesterdays game, I just thought I would put it up for those who like this sort of bet, and see it as profitable, and who knows they might just do it in a season were no one seems to be dominating, It all could come down to a string of 7 or 8 wins on the bounce, and I know spurs are a side capable of doing that. GL all

[ElkHunter]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage. I have looked at bets like these in the past, like getting say Valencia at long odds to win the Champ League and laying them once they get through the group and price comes in. All depends on how much you think the price will move which depends on the market and I find that bit difficult to estimate. So for Spurs to come in to 34 there must be enough peolle to see value in that still to lock in profits based on price dropping further.....or people must think that Spurs can realistically win the league? I think Spurs will come in from 150 but how far is debatable - either way I think there is profit, although some of it appears to have beenswallowed up by the exchange already! On the same note is there some money available for Everton at 430? They have got Chelsea at home next so if they win that you could see a decent shift? I think they will lose but might be worth a small punt?

[Jase82]

Say we had £20 at 200/1(3980 profit) for arguments sake...When they hit 100/1 on the exchange' date=' [b']and they will. You then trade/lay your initial lay out,,ie £20, you have lost/won nothing at this point, but you still have £2000 to play with as a free bet for spurs to win the league. Then we wait, if and when it does reach 33/1, you start trading for your profit, an instant profit of £60 or so, and the lower they get, if you wait the higher you receive. The voucher of whatever amount at 200/1, is guranteed money IMO. I have backed them at over 200/1 before yesterdays game, I just thought I would put it up for those who like this sort of bet, and see it as profitable, and who knows they might just do it in a season were no one seems to be dominating, It all could come down to a string of 7 or 8 wins on the bounce, and I know spurs are a side capable of doing that. GL all

Yeah I understand the basis behind trading, and in betting you never say never. But I wouldn't take Spurs to win the league at 1000/1 as they have virtually 0.001% chance of winning. So for me the guaranteed return is provided by just laying them to win the title.. :unsure

[Big Andy]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

Yeah I understand the basis behind trading' date=' and in betting you never say never. But I wouldn't take Spurs to win the league at 1000/1 as they have virtually 0.001% chance of winning. So for me the guaranteed return is provided by just laying them to win the title.. :unsure[/quote'] That means you could have a hell of a lot of money tied up for almost 6 months. RIO's suggestion makes much more sense in my opinion as in the outlay and risk/reward is low.

[ElkHunter]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage. I guess it depends if you want that level of exposure and capital tied up in a bet that you might not be able to trade out of any time soon. Doing it the other way is a preferable way to trade - coming fro. My position of relative ignorance anyway! :)

[Jase82]

That means you could have a hell of a lot of money tied up for almost 6 months. RIO's suggestion makes much more sense in my opinion as in the outlay and risk/reward is low.

True :ok I've just never done it, and from a completely theoretical point of view it wouldn't really matter if I had a gazillion pounds tied up on Laying Spurs @ 33/1 because of the reality of them winning the league being close to zero. I suppose you have to think about liquidity too but it's the EPL.

[RIO2014]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

True :ok I've just never done it, and from a completely theoretical point of view it wouldn't really matter if I had a gazillion pounds tied up on Laying Spurs @ 33/1 because of the reality of them winning the league being close to zero. I suppose you have to think about liquidity too but it's the EPL.

It was just a suggestion, to IMO what is free money, given that I expect the price to crumble post Man utd game, They have beaten them this season, so nothing to fear. And every now and then the impossible happens, this could be one of them. As we seen yesterday, Man Utd have been leaking goals, there will be games were they dont claw it back, and 2 or 3 of them, were all back on the roundabout. That why the EPL is the best, and most unpredictable, EVERYONES TRYING. GL all

[Jase82]

Perfectly fine mate :ok Was just getting a bit of a debate going :) I disagree about the predictability factor though. Ante post betting in the EPL is as predictable as they come. Obviously you have one or two "surprises" where a side like Newcastle finish strongly, or a side has a much worse finish than predicted. But in respect of the top placings it pretty much writes itself, and I think Blackburn winning the league has been the only real shock in over twenty years of Premier League history. Never write anything off though, agreed :)

[pg_yid]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage. I like this thread. It's insane, but I like it! At least I think it's insane the idea of us winning the league, as a trade it may or may not be a good idea, I don't trade so wouldn't be able to judge that. I guess it's difficult to judge the value of 100/1 or 200/1 shots winning the league as like Jase said, it hasn't ever happened in the EPL as we know it, but that is (to some degree) factored into the price. I suppose there is perhaps some sort of potential there as on our day we are as good as any side in the league, but there's probably a few sides who could say the same thing; we are inconsistent and the manager is still learning...I would be very, very happy with a top four place (which I think we will just miss out on).

[Big Andy]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage. Just to update this thread following Spurs' win at Sunderland today..... Spurs are 120 to back, and there are small amounts to lay Spurs at 150, 160 and 170. With this potentially awkward game behind them at Sunderland should they do what is expected against QPR and Reading, RIO's strategy looks well on course.

[RIO2014]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

Just to update this thread following Spurs' win at Sunderland today..... Spurs are 120 to back, and there are small amounts to lay Spurs at 150, 160 and 170. With this potentially awkward game behind them at Sunderland should they do what is expected against QPR and Reading, RIO's strategy looks well on course.

Yeah m8, that was my thinking, They could just...maybe flip within 8 or 9 points of Manutd, after the next 3 games, That would certainly take them under 33/1...then we may have a very decent position, QPR n Reading, wont be easy, but they have the tools to take max points here.

[RIO2014]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage. Bale has new years day off.... Unlucky realy after today there was a amnesty

[RIO2014]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage. Still 150/1 with some firms..even after 100% record since the start of this thread... QPR next A Man utd H Norwich A West Brom A Newcastle H plus fa cup before EL starts again. If they break 50 points after 26 games...game on....even better if they turn utd over...Again.

[MPLouis]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

SPURS are 200/1 with Victor, Bluesq, 888 and 188 and Betfair, 150/1 most other places to WIN, yes win the Premier League. I for one think this is great value, but outstanding value to trade on, In five games from now alone they will be in double figures, and could drop like a stone once the play Man utd, depending on other results. Next 5 games. A. sunderland H.Reading A.qpr H.man utd A.norwich EA will miss the last 3 of these, and possibly the next 1 or 2 if TOGO hit the semis n final, but that it, The full back BAE, wont be going anyhow.(and he may be back within a month or so) Spurs are hitting a rich vein of form, with their best player(and best player in the prem) having a mid season break of his own, were ever you look they now have cover on the park with players coming back from injury. The min from the above games will be 11 points, which will drop their price to under 100/1, you could take your 100% profit then, or carry on the ride. If they turn Man utd over after 2 wins before that, expect no bigger than 33/1.

Just seen this and I think you could be on to a winner - although I'd be cautious. I record Shots on Target stats taken from the BBC website, and Spurs' Shots on Target stats for the last five games are outstanding - they have had 67 more shots on target than their opponents in those five games - by far the biggest stat I've recorded in the few months I've been doing this (20 is a good figure, meaning a side averages 4 more shots on target per game than its opponents - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea are all around 20 at the moment. It's fair to point out that Spurs' last five opponents have been Swansea/Stoke/Villa/Sunderland/Reading. But the reports and stats suggest they have been really dominating all these games. The test for Spurs will be if they can maintain their form, particularly when they come up against the better teams. I can't see them winning the league, but it'll be interesting to see where they finish - they certainly have a chance of 3rd place. If you do bet with the idea of laying it off, it's also important to look at the liquidity of the market. A lot of Betfair markets have low liquidity and a big spread between back and lay prices.

[pg_yid]

Re: The 200/1 Premier League Thread, and why PL members should take advantage.

Just seen this and I think you could be on to a winner - although I'd be cautious. I record Shots on Target stats taken from the BBC website, and Spurs' Shots on Target stats for the last five games are outstanding - they have had 67 more shots on target than their opponents in those five games - by far the biggest stat I've recorded in the few months I've been doing this (20 is a good figure, meaning a side averages 4 more shots on target per game than its opponents - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea are all around 20 at the moment. It's fair to point out that Spurs' last five opponents have been Swansea/Stoke/Villa/Sunderland/Reading. But the reports and stats suggest they have been really dominating all these games. The test for Spurs will be if they can maintain their form, particularly when they come up against the better teams. I can't see them winning the league, but it'll be interesting to see where they finish - they certainly have a chance of 3rd place. If you do bet with the idea of laying it off, it's also important to look at the liquidity of the market. A lot of Betfair markets have low liquidity and a big spread between back and lay prices.

I went to all those games and yes we most certainly dominated, we were excellent over Christmas and the players look much fitter than last year under Redknapp. Like you say, we will have to see what happens when we play the better teams, although we have got most of the hardest fixtures out of the way: we have played all of United, City, Everton, Arsenal away with the home games yet to come. The only one of the top 6 we still have to play away is Chelsea. How we go in the Europa League and FA Cup may well be a factor, bear in mind AVB has been playing strong teams in all cup competitions from the start this year, so how we deal with tiredness will be important, though as I have said the players look much fitter so far.