Aidymac Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 [TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 18 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Brighton & Hove Albion v Millwall (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.22[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.85 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Friday 21 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Blackpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Derby County v Hull City (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.92[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.39 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Saturday 22 December 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Birmingham City v Burnley (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Blackburn Rovers v Brighton & Hove Albion (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.17 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Ipswich Town v Bristol City (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.98[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Leeds United v Middlesbrough (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.68 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Leicester City v Cardiff City (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.22[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.99 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Millwall v Barnsley (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.68 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Peterborough United v Bolton Wanderers (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Sheffield Wednesday v Charlton Athletic (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.55[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.68 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Watford v Nottingham Forest (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.84 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn]Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town (17:20 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.39 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jah312 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec I had a terrible weekend this past weekend in Championship betting going 2-3 on sides and 0-3 on totals. However one thing I did notice was that the 3 games in which the projected goals were 2.40 or less all went under 2.5 goals. So looking ahead to this week there are 2 games I am interested in betting under Brighton-Millwall and Blackburn-Brighton and one game I am still on the fence on Watford-Nottingham Forest. Below are my projections: [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 98]Brighton[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64, align: right]0.97[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64, align: right]1.10[/TD] [TD=width: 64, align: right]1.064585[/TD] [TD=width: 64, align: right]1.409[/TD] [TD=width: 64, align: right]1.5[/TD] [TD=width: 64, align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Millwall[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]0.55[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.729624[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.846364[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, align: right]2.346364[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blackburn[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]0.71[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]0.90[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.639[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.409[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.900351[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brighton[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]1.10[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]1.10[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.21[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.4036[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, align: right]2.303951[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Watford[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]0.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.97[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.9409[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.409[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.325728[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nottingham F[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, align: right]1.33[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.86[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.1438[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.16[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.326808[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, align: right]2.652536[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I am taking Brighton-Millwall to go under 2.5 at 5/6 or 1.8333 the implied probability is 54.55% that the game will go under 2/5 goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrclumsy123 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Hi Jah im a novice punter and wondered if you have time could youu explain what each column in your table represents and how they are worked out? Thank you!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jah312 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Google the article "poisson distribution betting" at Pinnacle Sports dated September 19, 2012, the author makes several math errors but the methodology is sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postman Pat Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Don't understand the love for Brighton in the markets. Yeah they beat Millwall early in the season but have only had the three wins since and they have all been against strugglers in the division. Millwall flying at the minute and beat a hot Leicester side last weekend. They may not last the race but I feel Brighton are a 'lay' tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Brighton are often priced pretty short at home if memory serves me correctly, usually around the 1.8 mark? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Don't normally back Middlesbrough but I quite like our chances on Saturday. We are unbeaten in our last 3 visits to Elland Road and we are in good form at the moment despite them 2 losses to Cardiff and Birmingham. We outplayed both teams and were unlucky to come away from both games with 0 points. Leeds are pretty strong at home but I now believe we are the best side in the Championship. Hopefully Chelsea will give Leeds are tough game tomorrow night but we will be fresh come Saturday and I fancy an away win. Will wait a few days before getting involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swindonfan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Leicester are now as short as 2.02 to lay on Betfair. That seems very very short. Cardiff have improved recently away from home and dont have any injuries to worry about. Leicester are a decent side but inconsistent. I am very happy to lay Leicester at 2.02. i would price them more around 2.25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymboy34 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec derby v hull pick hull +0.25 1.78 derby have gotta great home record but they are untested v top 6 teams except cardiff who drew with them and are probaly the weakest top 6 team away. Plus there are several first choice team players nursing injuries and some will probaly miss this game. Hull are on great run and even without star striker aluko and are a great away side beating lately forest and watford similar or better standard home teams to derby. Overall I think this is a 50/50 game with probaly coz of derbys injuried and nursing injuried players will give hull the edge so the +0.25 liner and 1.78 odds gives good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec 4pts Blackpool to beat Wolves 21/20 Ladbrokes I like Blackpool and the way they play the game and I think Michael Appleton will be good for them. They had all the attacking forces in place but sometimes they left themselves a bit too exposed which Appleton’s defensive abilities will be able to coach into them. Wolves are hard to read this season but generally on the road it has been slim pickings for them this season and that’s how I see it being in this one too. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/blackpool-vs-wolves-betting-blackpool-can-close-in-on-the-playoff-places-with-win-over-wolves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Sheff Wednesday v Charlton +0 (AH) @2.15 Bet365 (4Points) Wednesday got a vital win last week at Barnsley but I still didn't think they looked overly convincing. Before that they had that terrible run of 7 losses on the bounce and I can't really see that a massive lot has changed in them. Charlton are a good side on the road. They have w2, d2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away matches and on that basis with the poor form the Owls are in, I just can't see them winning this match. I don't think you can make Wednesday favourites in this match even with the home advvantage and the 3 points last week. I can see a low scoring game with Charlton being fairly tight at the back now and Wednesdy severely lacking in goals. But if either of these teams are going to win, I can see Charlton adding another 3 points to their collection on the road. At the odds available that's definitely where I think the value lies anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTips Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec My tips for Saturday: Peterborough vs Bolton | Bolton to score + 1.5 goals | 1.80 Leeds vs Middlesbrough | Leeds HA+0 | 1.95 Ipswich vs Bristol | Ipswich HA-0.5 | 1.85 Milwall vs Barnsley | Milwall to win | 1.70 Watford vs Nottingham | Under 2.5 goals | 1.925 Sheffield vs Charlton | Charlton HA+0 | 2.15 Leicester vs Cardiff | Cardiff HA+0.5 | 1.90 Blackburn vs Brighton | No bet Birmingham vs Burnley | Birmingham HA+0 | 1.675 Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield | Palace HA-0.5 | 1.70 Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield | Palace HA-1 | 2.25 Everything 10/10 @ Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fidders Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Sorry C Tips without trying to offend your efforts , just thought id let you know that no one will take a 2nd look at your selections without reasoning. The whole idea is that you express your logic as to why you feel the games will finish as you have predicted. In short its pretty much a waste of time posting material like this. Sorry bro.... For example I fancy the Over 2.5 goals in the Crystal Palace v Huddersfield game. My reasoning is because C Palace have gone over in all but 1 game at home this season. Palace in my opinion will go to win this from the off and this could well leave them open to a Terriers team that have quality to break in Scannell and Beckford both returning from injury and should start. The Terriers like to play attractive footie and Palaces style will be easier to play against as opposed to Hull last week that tend to stop everything happening in the middle with their 5 man crowding style. Holloway is not likely to employ that tactic and this should allow the away side more room to supply their front line. Its a televised 5.20 KO so you can be sure all involved will be keen to put on a good show and this can only enhance the overs probability. Over 2.5 Goals - 1.75 - VC / Bet 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RebelPunt Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Depending on how other results pan out, third placed Palace could potentially go top with a win here. Their home record has been solid all season with seven wins, three draws and just one defeat (which came back in August). They've won four of their last five home games, keeping a clean sheet in all four. Huddersfield are back in eighteenth place and are winless in six games, picking up just two points from a possible eighteen. They've lost four of their last six on the road and a home win looks a decent bet here to me. Odds of 1.77 are available with Pinnacle and WBX for a Palace win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymboy34 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Sheff Wednesday v Charlton +0 (AH) @2.15 Bet365 (4Points) Wednesday got a vital win last week at Barnsley but I still didn't think they looked overly convincing. Before that they had that terrible run of 7 losses on the bounce and I can't really see that a massive lot has changed in them. Charlton are a good side on the road. They have w2, d2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away matches and on that basis with the poor form the Owls are in, I just can't see them winning this match. I don't think you can make Wednesday favourites in this match even with the home advvantage and the 3 points last week. I can see a low scoring game with Charlton being fairly tight at the back now and Wednesdy severely lacking in goals. But if either of these teams are going to win, I can see Charlton adding another 3 points to their collection on the road. At the odds available that's definitely where I think the value lies anyway. I'm gonna second this but the +0.25 and 1.81 odds at pinny for charlton swfc did win last time but did get the luck v fellow struggling team, but they still look weak at the back and look average at best going forward lacking confidence. Now they play a charlton side who were on a good unbeaten run until losing to bolton away last week but they did have good chances earlier before getting punsished later in the game. They are a better away side then at home and have a v good defence which should be good enuf for swfc attack and they should be able to create good chances v swfc defence and score. The bookies have swfc as clear favs but I see this being about 50/50 with charlton probaly slight favs so the +0.25 line and 1.81 odds for charlton offer clear good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Injuries and suspensions Birmingham City v Burnley FC Birmingham City: Caddis (7/0 d), Spector (19/0 d) (probably out), Ambrose (5/0 m), Murphy (13/0 d), Carr (0/0 d), Asante (0/0 f) Burnley FC: Mee (14/1 d) Ipswich Town v Bristol City Ipswich Town: P. Taylor (3/0 f) Bristol City: R. Taylor (20/1 f), Wilson (1/0 d) (doubtful), Skuse (13/0 m), Cunningham (7/0 d) Peterborough v Bolton Wanderers Peterborough: - Bolton Wanderers: Davies (20/5 m), Mills (17/1 d), Holden (0/0 m), Wheater (0/0 d), Vela (0/0 m) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec 4pts Crystal Palace to beat Huddersfield 3/4 BetVictor Crystal Palace are stuttering a bit at the minute but Huddersfield look to have been found out in this division now and I would expect a home win here even though the price is nothing to write home about. They have plenty of quality in attacking areas with the likes of Glen Murray and Wilfried Zaha tearing this division up and they can lead Palace back into the top two in this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/crystal-palace-vs-huddersfield-betting-crystal-palace-can-return-to-the-top-two-with-home-win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SociopathKid Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec crystal palace dnb + bristol to score @1.75 is this a solid bet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castilio Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Hello everybody, what about Millwall - Barnsley ? I think Millwall will beat Barnsley who haven't won in their last 11 (7 loses and 4 draws).I think Millwall (-0.5, -1) on AHC @1.9 is a value bet. Sorry for my bad english. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardD Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Leeds- middlesbrough, This is a tricky encounter, could the carling cup game on wednesday, play a part in this match with fatigue hitting leeds players? middlesbrough have a good record at elland road picking up a 10 points from a possible 12 from there last four visits. Leeds have recently been on a good run, winning four out of there last five, including wins over high flying crystal palace and leicester. Middlesbrough have won 5 times away from home this season and have one of the largest squads in the championship with an array of attacking options in mc donald, emnes, miller, jutkiewicz, and ledesma all capable of scoring goals. I feel the best bet is over 2.5 goals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isajesus123 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec hello brothers i am from Turkiye.We are concerned about the wheather and air conditions ? Can you inform us about this occasion about todays matches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isajesus123 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec hello brothers i am from Turkiye.We are concerned about the wheather and air conditions ? Can you inform us about this occasion about todays matches? thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saimon76 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec I think Burnley is playing very poor at the moment, but also Brums are not better a lot.. However I will give home team the advantage, their home stadium is never an easy place to go. I choose the sign 1 with 3/10 stake at 2,35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daviewrdl Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Re: Championship > 18th Dec - 22nd Dec Going to have my first go at explaining a bet. Millwall vs Barnsley Millwall's record at home in the last 5 games in the championship is 4-0-1 and Barnsley's record away in the last 5 games in the league is 0-2-3 Barnsley are 22nd in the league whereas Millwall lie 6th. Millwall will be too strong at home against a weak barnsley side who havent won in their last 11 games. Bets for me: Millwall to win @ 4/6 with paddypower 6pts HT/FT millwall/millwall @6/4 with paddypower 4pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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