Win if nothing happens system

[jd_fortune]

My soccer system is to always make bets in which I will win if nothing happens, like laying Any Unquoted in correct score markets when it's 0-0. I would never make a bet where I would lose unless somebody makes at least 1 goal. Then I just research the H2H stats of the various games scheduled and look for games where both teams have fewer goals than league average and also hadn't made 4 goals in recent history. The actual chance of either of those teams scoring 4 goals is more like 0% than whatever is being offered on BF. Then I just watch them fail yet again. If I were to back Any Unq, because I thought one of the teams could actually make 4 goals, then I would be in a losing position at that time until something happens,ie; a team makes 4 goals. That would be a bad position to be in. I want to be in a winning position currently and stay that way until something else happens. Just seems to work out better. It's also not hard to identify teams with no real chance of scoring 4 goals in a game. QPR; 0% chance.

[jd_fortune]

Re: Win if nothing happens system Here's another thing I do. Instead of backing the likely winner I lay the likely loser. That way, I start out in a winning position because a draw is a win for me and it's currently a 0-0 draw. If I were to back the likely winner I would be in a losing position until my team scores. Since about 1 in 8 games end in a 0-0 score, I would be assured of losing at least that often. I only make match bets if I am very confident of a certain team winning, like today with Arsenal v Reading. There was virtually no chance of Reading winning that match so I layed them. Arsenal made an early goal and Reading's odds went up but I then knew that Reading would lose for absolutely certain so I put another equal amount on the same lay bet even with the higher odds. Arsenal then scored again. Had to leave home and go to work at that point but needless to say Arsenal went on to win. A good thing about laying the likely loser is that if the fav scores a goal first then even if the underdog scores a goal he only ties it up so I am still in a winning position. I can only lose if the dog then scores TWO goals and the fav scores none more before the dog scores the two. Since I only do this in games with a strong fav it's very unlikely that the dog could score first or that he could score twice after the fav scores first before the fav can score again. Of course in the unlikely event of the dog scoring first, I have a problem and have to lay some high scores to make up for the likely loss on the match bet. That actually happened recently. the dog scored 3 goals in the game and the fav scored none. I had to make a $60 lay bet on Over 3.5 after the dog's second goal to cover my $50 loss and make $10. I cut it pretty close on that one but the price was too high on Over 4.5 or more so I had to risk the 3.5 lay. That's why I'm reluctant to make match bets, they can go bad too quickly. I prefer laying high scores with teams that I'm pretty sure aren't capable of scoring that many goals in the remaining time. One strategy I use sometimes is to watch the first half of a streamed game so I can see what the play is like before betting on the 2nd half. If I see some effective gameplay I don't even put a lay bet on the high scores. I want to see two completely inept teams bouncing the ball off each other and making wild shots on goal that miss the net by a wide margin. If I see even one dangerously good player in the game I'll just pass. There's always a game somewhere with two useless teams, I call them "clown shows". Just gotta look around a little and check some stats. As for my results with my betting practices, I just started this a couple weeks ago. First I deposited $400 and happened to hit some very bad luck and lost that so I put another $400 in and got back to about $800. Then a couple little bad hits set me back a few hundred but I would keep winning it back plus more, always going up more than I went back, and at present I'm at about $1100. Could just be more good luck than bad luck recently but it does seem to be working out rather well overall. When I was making all backing bets in horseracing I lost massively. Now I only ever make lay bets and only on soccer and it works a whole lot better. I just have to be careful now so I don't lose it all back on one or two bad bets. I will make a back bet sometimes if I think a game is going the wrong way and I want to bail out on the lay bet but otherwise I let it run. That's because the backing odds on offer are always low, as the lay odds on offer are always high from the overround, so I would take a hit on the lay part and then also on the back part (I find that my own odds orders are rarely filled so I just take the odds on offer). So I pay less overround by not making a greening up bet but just letting the lay bet go through to the end. I guess a refinement would be to try to put odds orders in early enough for them to get taken, and thereby avoid the overround, but for now I'm just taking the odds on offer for convenience sake.

[Bris Vegas]

Re: Win if nothing happens system I use to bet the under 5.5 goals as I had the same philosphy.. Instead of sitting there chasing a win I could be happy in the knowledge that I could walk away, not have to worry and later check to see if the teams managed what would be an unlikely result.. I had the opinion that there's more chance of a 0-0 than 6 goals being scored.. It worked out pretty well.. I used 3 games a day which equalled roughly an 1.5/10 bet and within a week I'd have doubled my money.. I went through this for a good few month without losing and came out with a nice profit but at the end of the day it was time consuming and alot of attention to detail and stat checking was necessary that for me it became too addictive and I felt I was only ever 1 loss away from being back to square one.. But I understand wanting to be in a winning position you feel moire comfortable than chasing.. But then again for a smalltime gambler like me it takes away the thrills

[Bris Vegas]

Re: Win if nothing happens system I was meant to say a good few weeks to a month in that post above..

[jd_fortune]

Re: Win if nothing happens system New balance; $1501.19. I'm getting better at judging a good game to bet. Only had one loss of $45 on an ill conceived Over 3.5 lay after one team already had two goals in. They got two more. Had to lay Colin Osborne's nobody opponent in a darts game to win it back quickly. A fast check showed that Osborne was a legendary darts player and the other guy was average. Osborne won 2-0. Today when I was up to $1458 and wanted to get it over $1500 I layed AEK v Kavala Any Unquoted for $45. Neither team had scored 4 goals all season and also had lower point averages than league average. The game came out 0-0. It was a slam dunk. It was only odds of 12. It was like candy from a baby. They didn't have 1 in 12 chance of scoring 4 goals, they had exactly zero chance, well maybe 1 in 100 or something like that.

[deyu25]

Re: Win if nothing happens system do you have something for today? under 5.5 or something? tell us what you bet today

[mikesth]

Re: Win if nothing happens system jd_fortune, first good luck with this it's good to hear other people's strategies, helps freshen the thinking. I play various Footie markets and have a few methodologies I follow and wanted to ask if you have formulated any exit strategies for when the bets go against you? I ask as chasing losses by betting on other markets has been flagged on many forums etc. as something not to do (and I did it myself many times when first trading to my detriment!). Just my tuppence worth to try and help you make this work and help you preserve your bank (our number 1 priority right?). Cheers+Merry Christmas!