CPO's class 3+ racing thread

[Smarty72]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

2.40 Wincanton Tullamore Dew 1pt EW @ 9/1 Ladbrokes I originally thought Big Fella Thanks was the one to be on here but I have changed my mind and gone for Tullamore Dew. He was given a considerate ride last time out at Newbury behind Restless Harry but he jumped well on the whole and stayed on to finish 2^nd behind the impressive winner. I think that will have given the horse some confidence after unseating on his reappearance at Ascot after being badly hampered at the 4^th fence. His last 3 runs last year were very disappointing so it was important for him to get a good run in straight away at the start of this season. He is clearly very talented, as he has shown when finishing 3^rd to Divers at the festival back in 2011 and then finishing 2^nd by a head behind Massini’s Maguire in a listed handicap chase at Ascot last year. Both of those efforts came off a mark of 139 so he is 4lbs lower here and must have a good chance of making the frame. He goes on any ground, which is a plus. He doesn’t win very often as his record suggests but previous to his last 3 runs last year, he was very consistent. One negative for me is the jockey who I don’t really like. Andrew Thornton to me always looks a little ungainly when he is riding a horse. Other than that I am hopeful of a decent run from this horse.

Also had Big Fella Thanks on my shortlist of bets for the day but dropped it at the last minute and decided no bet in this race! 2nd time this week dropped a selection to see it win! As you say Never change your mind!

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 1.05 Naas Beeverstown 1pt EW @ 14/1 Hills This horse looks a biggish price considering he won quite comfortably last time out, getting the better of a Willie Mullins horse in Turban. He has jumped out to the left on both starts over fences so far but has jumped well on the whole. Going left handed may well bring about more improvement with this horse and if he can get out in front and get into a rhythm, he could put plenty of pressure on the jumping of those in behind. Both Jenari and Mount Benbulben have not looked naturals over fences and I fancy their jumping could fall to pieces here if they are forced to go quicker than they would like. Marito would ideally want further than this but he clearly has a good engine and a fair bit of talent so he should be able to cope with the drop back in trip.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread :puke

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Had some rotten luck of late but hopefully I can turn things around tomorrow at Meydan. Back later with some bets once some prices become available

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.05 Meydan Ariete Arrollador 1pt EW @ 8/1 PaddyPower With 2lbs separating the 14 runners going to post, this is certainly not a race for the faint hearted. The current betting sees 3 joint favourites in Belgian Bill, Lily’s Angel and Yaa Wayl. Yaa Wayl is the only representative for Godolphin in this race and he has to be respected but he has only managed 2 placed efforts in 5 runs at Meydan and he might just be staying on too late in this. Lily’s Angel was initially one I was very interested in. She is 3 from 3 for her new trainer and although she was very impressive last time out, she was entitled to win that listed race as well as she did. She was rated 18lbs higher than the 2^nd and they were racing off level weights. The 4^th horse that wasn’t beaten that far is rated 69, which doesn’t say much for the form. She is progressing but she might just find this a little tough. The one that interests me most in this race is the Spanish raider Ariete Arrollador who had 3 runs at the track last year. I think it’s fair to say he enjoys racing on an artificial surface, as his record would suggest. He has visited Deauville 3 times and has won on each occasion. Last year he was rather unlucky to first bump into Barbecue Eddie and then to bump into Krypton Factor. Barbecue Eddie loves it at Meydan and has a great chance of winning the group 2 later on the card and Krypton Factor went on to win The Golden Shaheen last year and finished just 2.5 lengths behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. The form stacks up well and this extra furlong should suit my selection. He is well drawn here in 2 and should be able to stay out of any trouble. Interestingly Christophe Soumillion takes the ride on him for the first time. Mike de Kock does have a runner in the race so maybe it’s a tip in itself that the Frenchman rides this horse. He comes here on the back of a 90-day break, which should have freshened him up and he does have a good record when returning from a break from racing. I think he is a solid option in what looks an open race.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 4.15 Meydan Kassiano 1pt EW @ 10/1 PaddyPower One of 4 runners for Godolphin here and from jockey bookings, he would appear to be the 3^rd string for them but to me he is the most interesting. He is lightly raced with just 5 runs under his belt with his only defeat coming on his 2^nd start where he finished 3^rd. Since that run he has won twice at Deauville and won at Hannover last time out in what looked a decent enough race. He did it well that day and won quite cosily in the end but it’s impossible to know if he is well handicapped off 97. I would expect the horse to improve under Saeed Bin Suroor and he might just be good enough to take this. We know what most of these horses are capable of and it wouldn’t be the first time that the 2^nd or 3^rd string from Godolphin won. He is drawn right in the middle of the pack but judging from his previous runs, Ted Durcan will hold this one up. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see more than one Godolphin horse in the places but there are a couple in here that are unexposed and are interesting. Rocks Off is drawn well in 5, has Fallon on board and is 3 from 3. Hard to weigh up his form as it is with Kassiano but his trainer is more than capable and he could get involved. Farrier is the other lightly raced horse in the line-up and comes here on the back of a good win in Abu Dhabi. This will only be his 4^th run but stable and jockey are in brilliant form at the moment and he is open to improvement.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 4.50 Meydan Rerouted 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 PaddyPower This horse owes me a win! I backed him on every start at Meydan last year and every time he let me down. He ran a couple of good races and a couple of indifferent races. His placed efforts behind Delegator and City Style were good runs, especially the 2^nd to City Style. That horse went on to place twice in group 1 company after beating Rerouted. I think 9f here is probably his maximum distance but he is capable of finishing well at this trip. I have read that Mike de Kock believes this horse to be sounder and stronger than last year so even with a little improvement that would make him pretty dangerous in this. So often he was made to set the pace for Frankel, and never really got the chance to show his true ability. He is a group 3 winner and he did grab a 4^th in a group 1 contest in Italy before carrying out his pace making duties. I have no doubts that he will have improved under Mike de Kock, especially with another year under his belt. Christophe Soumillion takes the ride and I would be disappointed if he couldn’t at the very least make the places in this.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.40 Meydan Balmont Mast 3pts win @ 11/2 PaddyPower This race has a very European feel to it and it looks almost impossible to work out. I haven’t considered the form of other horses in this race but have simply sided with this horse, as I believe he is progressing at a rate of knots. The big doubt for me is the surface as his last 2 runs, which have been his best, have come on the all weather at Dundalk. His turf record is nowhere near as good but there is every chance he is just improving and can translate that form to turf. It was hard not to be impressed by his win last time out where he comfortably beat Nocturnal Affair who is rated 110. Balmont Mast had to sit and suffer for much of the race stuck on the inside, whereas Nocturnal Affair had a clear run on the outside. Balmont Mast accelerated almost instantly when getting the gap, in the style of a very smart horse. This is clearly much tougher and he is rated 7lbs higher now but this race should be run to suit. There looks to be plenty of pace throughout this race, which should set it up for something coming from behind. Balmost Mast travels well and can quicken instantly but much will depend on luck in running. I remember last year backing Monseiur Joe in one of these sprints, and he met all kinds of trouble and finished well behind. There will no doubt be plenty of hard luck stories in the race, so fingers crossed Gary Carroll can keep him out of trouble and steer him home in front.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Still can't find a winner! :eyes

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 2.40 Kempton Black Thunder 2pts win @ 7/1 SkyBet

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

2.40 Kempton Black Thunder 2pts win @ 7/1 SkyBet

Black Thunder looks to have an excellent chance here after an encouraging run last time out. He has had 2 runs so far this season with his first coming over CD where he was to keen early on and faded near the last to finish 3rd. His run at Haydock last time out was much better and he would have won had that race been over todays trip. The extra furlong here will suit and the ground is no problem. Harry Derham takes weight off his back which puts him just 1lb higher than his run last time out.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.35 Warwick Bradley 1.5pts EW @ 13/2 PaddyPower I am willing to forgive Bradley for latest run at Cheltenham where he was a disappointing favourite behind Master Overseer. The ground that day was very testing and he never looked happy on it. He didn't jump well and was hampered quite badly when Crash fell. If you look at his run before that, then he would have a massive chance in this if he can reproduce that effort to finish less than a length into 2nd behind Monbeg Dude. He is lightly raced for a 9 year old but he is clearly a talented stayer and the less testing ground should suit him tomorrow. It looks an open race which is why I have gone each way. Pete the Feat may have not stopped improving yet and he is the rightful favourite for the race. Restless Harry is a horse I backed last time out but he will find this a very different test to the race he won at Newbury. Plenty of talented stayers in this but Bradley looks a solid option to at least make the frame.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.15 Kempton Kingsmere 2pts win @ 9/1 SkyBet While this horse's jumping is a worry, I don't think we have seen the best him of yet. He was highly progressive last year in novice chases and was still travelling well in front when coming to grief at the 2nd last at Cheltenham on his return to action. He found the Paddy Power Gold Cup too hot last time out but there were plenty of horses in that race that didn't finish. I think he is worth another chance on better ground and on a track that should suit. It's a competitive race and he has plenty of weight to carry but I feel there could be more to come from him this season. The trainer had an impressive winner the other day so his horses might be coming into form. Jake Greenall is 2 from 3 on the horse with the other race coming on his return to action this year where he fell. I see the jockey as a negative as he didn't appear to help the horse at all when he fell 2 runs ago but he clearly gets on well with him so he will have to do!

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.00 Warwick Minella Definitely 1pt win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes The favourites have a good record in this race and both The New One and Dursey Sound have obvious claims but I feel one of the outsiders is worth a small interest. Minella Definitely got the better of Snake Eyes on his debut to pull of a real shock at Kempton but there is every chance there was no fluke about that win. The pair of them pulled well clear of the 3rd in that race and Minella Definitely managed to fight back after being headed to get back up near the line. There is every chance he will be an even better horse now stepped up in trip as he won a point to point over 3miles in April last year. He takes his chance here in much better company but the stable are going very well at the moment.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Been away for a few weeks due to a Uni work pile up! I haven't given up with this just yet... Will update the stats tomorrow night but I do fancy a couple tomorrow. Back later with some bets!

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.30 Musselburgh Ingleby Spirit 2pts win @ 6/1 William Hill Below is what I wrote about this horse last time out. Even though he is up 4lbs for finishing 2nd, that was a very good effort behind a progressive horse in Swing Bowler. Tomorrow he bumps into another potentially progressive horse in Brick Red but I fancy taking that one on. Brick Red is up 12lbs for a race he was entitled to win last time out and he should find this much tougher. Ingleby Spirit clearly likes the track and ran well in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark. The better ground tomorrow will suit and he should make his presence felt with the yard in good form.

2.45 Musselburgh Ingleby Spirit 1pt EW @ 11/1 Bet365 This horse may well prefer better ground but he has form on the flat on soft ground and the conditions at Musselburgh are getting better by the hour. He is still relatively lightly raced over hurdles and he is already twice a CD winner from last year. He also finished 4th in the Scottish County Hurdle off a 6lb higher mark last year which was a good effort considering the strength in depth of that race and that it was only his 5th start over hurdles. He has had a couple of recent runs over hurdles which haven't been too inspiring at Haydock at Doncaster but I think a return to a right handed sharp track might just do the trick. Richard Fahey has his string in much better form at the moment with nearly all horses running as their price would suggest. This is competitive but Ingleby Spirit is one of the least exposed horses in the line up. He can race just in behind the leaders today and hopefully pick them off near the finish. Should be a fast run race considering the amount of front runners in the line up.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 1.50 Punchestown Coole Avenue 1pt EW @ 16/1 PaddyPower Coole Avenue looks a big price here is you can forgive his most recent effort at Leopardstown where he finished 24th of 30. Prior to running a stinker last time out he had been very consistent in handicap hurdle races. The only time in his 6 previous runs where he finished out of the first 4, is when he fell at Bellewstown. He is clearly well suited to large fields as his 3 wins over hurdles have all come in races with 15 or more runners in. Trip and ground are not a problem and Bryan Cooper is back on tomorrow which is a positive. All of his best recent runs have come under Bryan Cooper and I am confident of a much better showing than what he put up last time out.

[stugga]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

Been away for a few weeks due to a Uni work pile up! I haven't given up with this just yet... Will update the stats tomorrow night but I do fancy a couple tomorrow. Back later with some bets!

do you use the fmttm msg board? off topic i know

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread I go on it mate but I don't post on there

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Vesper Bell to win today and win the National Hunt Cup at Cheltenham 1pt win @ 30/1 William Hill This horse is certainly short enough for his race today but he is by some way the best horse in the race and although he has plenty of weight to carry, he will hopefully prove tough to beat. Willie Mullins continues in cracking form and this horse looks all about stamina. He won very easily last time out over 3m on heavy ground and he looks set to improve for the step up in trip here. There are a few in here that get plenty of weight from him but I think Vesper Bell has a touch of class about him and he can take the trial. I did pick him out last night for the National Hunt Chase and at 10/1, I think it's a fair price. If he does win today then I would expect that price to shorten. I think there are a few in the National Hunt Chase betting that are still yet to decide on their festival target and it is more than likely that they will go for other races.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread I have to back this horse again today having not got a run last time out. 0.5pt EW @ 10/1 Hills

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

1.05 Naas Beeverstown 1pt EW @ 14/1 Hills This horse looks a biggish price considering he won quite comfortably last time out, getting the better of a Willie Mullins horse in Turban. He has jumped out to the left on both starts over fences so far but has jumped well on the whole. Going left handed may well bring about more improvement with this horse and if he can get out in front and get into a rhythm, he could put plenty of pressure on the jumping of those in behind. Both Jenari and Mount Benbulben have not looked naturals over fences and I fancy their jumping could fall to pieces here if they are forced to go quicker than they would like. Marito would ideally want further than this but he clearly has a good engine and a fair bit of talent so he should be able to cope with the drop back in trip.

This horse is the one I have backed

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Not exactly back with a bang haha but glad to be back nonetheless! Today was quite disappointing. In two of the races I had a bet in, the obvious horses won in Colbert Station and Brick Red. Both were very short and didn't really make much appeal. I thought Coole Avenue was at least going to get placed at one point as he made stealthy headway from the back of the field into about 4th place before tiring before the last hurdle. Ingleby Spirit never looked likely to even get placed. Beeverstown ran well for a long way but fell in a hole and finished well beaten. I will include the Vesper Bell bet in next weeks update if he gets beat. If he wins, I will have a nice little bet going into Cheltenham providing he goes for the National Hunt Chase. All Cheltenham bets will be taken into account once they have run or been completely ruled out of racing in that specific race. There is a cracking little contest at Doncaster tomorrow, which I am going to have a look at later. Here are the stats and they make pretty grim reading considering the start I had with this thread. I suppose I can't complain however as I am still in profit...just! Bets - 64 Wins - 19 Staked – 141.5 Returned – 160.65 Profit - +19.15 SR – 29.69% ROI – 13.53%

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.00 Doncaster Countrywide Flame 1pt win @ 6/1 Bet365 This is by no mean a strong bet as I probably expect Darlan to win again but I can't be backing him at the current price so Countrywide Flame will do. The impression he made at Newcastle was a good one and although he didn't back it up at Kempton, the race that day would have suited him the least IMO. He looks all about stamina as his 2nd in the Cesarewtich would suggest so the 4 furlong sprint at Kempton would have definitely not been to his liking. This today will be more of a test for Darlan as he meets last years Champion Hurdle winner added to the fact the jockeys know they will be left for dead if it turns into a sprint. There are no definite front runners in the line up today but I think its highly likely that either Denis O'Regan or Noel Fehily will set out to make it more of a stamina test. Doncaster is a more galloping track than Kempton anyway, so that alone should help my selection possibly get closer to Darlan. The danger here is that the trainers are simply using the race to get a run into their horses and are not bothered about getting beaten but I think both Harry Fry and John Quinn would love to really put it up to Darlan and try and get him beat. They say Darlan will be even better on the better ground today but so will Countrywide Flame. His Triumph win came on good ground and he won that day going away. His has proven he can go from the front when wining at Chester on the flat a few runs ago. Denis O'Regan does like to sit and stalk which is a worry but if he goes off in front and try's to make it a proper test, then I can see him getting closer to Darlan and possibly reversing the form. If they go slow early on then for me there is only one outcome which is a Darlan win. Much will depend on the tactics, but even then Darlan may prove too strong.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 4.05 Carlisle Knoackara Beau 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes This is a cracking little race for a Wednesday afternoon and there are two horses in here that interest me. Firstly Knockara Beau who has done me a couple of favours in the past and is probably the sentimental selection and secondly Quartz de Thaix who I think can show his run last time out to be completely wrong. Knoackara Beau did in fact win this race last year and he returns this year off a 3lb lower mark. He ran an encouraging race at Cheltenham last time out in a grade 2 event where he finished 4^th behind Reve De Sivola on similar ground. He is a 10 year old now but he clearly still retains plenty of ability. Carlisle and Kelso seem to be his best tracks as he is 2 from 2 here and has several wins at Kelso. He has 11-10 to carry for this but he lumped around 11-12 last year where he made all in a gutsy win. Paddy Brennan takes the ride for the 2^nd time after getting the leg up on him at Cheltenham and I certainly think he can make a bold big from the front. One thing I would say however is this year’s running of the race looks stronger than last years. Quartz de Thaix ran an absolute stinker last time out at Cheltenham but a couple of early errors knocked his confidence and he just didn’t jump well throughout the race. Before that he was in great form winning twice against useful opposition before getting outstayed by the dour stayer Master Overseer at Cheltenham. He looked the likely winner that day but just couldn’t hold on. His last few runs over hurdles in 2011 were not very good but the yard may have been going through a barren spell, which would explain the poor runs. He does have a win over hurdles off 142 and tomorrow he races off 147 with the jockey taking off another 5lbs. He should get competitive if the race at Cheltenham hasn’t dented his confidence. The stable remains in very good form so I would expect him to run well tomorrow. There are a few of young guns in here that are open to plenty of improvement. The likes of Shutthefrontdoor, Green Flag and Seymour Eric are all coming into this race on the back of 2 victories. The Jonjo trained Shutthefrontdoor has been doing all his winning over much shorter distances and makes a considerable step up in trip. He showed some very smart form in his unbeaten bumper career and has looked impressive in his hudrles wins to date. He is bred to appreciate this sort of trip so it will be interesting to see how he fare against a couple of more experienced rivals. The other youngster that is interesting is Green Flag who Lucinda Russell thinks the world of. He is improving with every race and loves heavy ground. They expect him to really come into his own when he goes over fences but until then he can make his presence felt over hurdles. Seymour Eric although improving, I don’t think is good enough to win this. I think the best he can hope for is a place. I don’t really see any of the others winning. I think at the current prices I am going to side with Knockara Beau. He was handed a ridiculously long lead last time out but the pack soon caught up with him and I don’t think it was that much of an advantage. He is 2 from 2 here and that run at Cheltenham was a very good one if you consider the horses that finished ahead of him are rated 139, 167 and 166. He has also never won at Cheltenham from 12 attempts so maybe the track doesn’t suit him as others do such as Carlisle and Kelso. Paddy Brennan keeps the ride and I am hopeful of a good run. He won this last year, conditions are very much in his favour and he could get an easy lead.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Make or break day tomorrow at Meydan... :eyes

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Going to post up my selections for tomorrow now but will post up my bets in the morning when more prices are available. 6.10 Meydan Ariete Arrollador EW This horse was one of my first bets of the carnival when he finished an unlucky 2^nd. He disappointed last time out but he got no run whatsoever and could have finished much closer with a clear run. He could be a nice price on the back of that run plus the extra furlong here should suit him. He is well drawn in 4 if he can hold his position but I think there is definitely a big handicap in him. 5.35 Meydan Hunters Light This is the best race on the card by some way and a very tough one to fathom out. De Kock has stated that he feels Await the Dawn will need this run so that puts me off him a little. That being said it wouldn’t be the first time that a trainer has said something like that and the horse has won. For me this race revolves around picking the right Godolphin horse. They have 5 entered in the race but I think the two at the head of the betting are the ones to concentrate on. Saint Baudolino is the interesting horse in the race having looked very unlucky last year. He is the current favourite but I get the feeling he might just need the race. I do like Hunter’s Light who was very progressive towards the end of last year. He won a group 3 at Haydock on fast ground and followed that up with a demolition job in a group 2 over in Turkey on an all weather surface. The horse he beat by 5 lengths into 2^nd that day was a group 1 winner and there were several smart horses in behind. He then finished 9 lengths behind Cirrus Des Aigles on ground softer than ideal, before going on to win a group 1 in Italy very comfortably. I think 10f is his perfect trip and he clearly likes an artificial surface as he has 2 wins and a 2^nd from 3 runs. There is every chance there could be even more to come from him, as he is only 5. He is drawn well in 6 and he has the services of SDS, which would make him the Saeed Bin Suroor first choice. 5.00 Meydan Certerach Art Scholar is a horse I like but I think this trip will just stretch him so I would be against him here. Ahzeemah beat several of these last time out and will probably confirm the form with most of them if not all of them but I am going to take him on with the Irish trained Certerach. This horse was beaten by Ahzeemah last time out but finished off his race very well to suggest the step up in trip would suit. He has raced once over this trip where he was a very unlucky 6^th behind I have a Dream at Leopardstown. He was travelling much the best in that race but just couldn’t get a clear run and would have gone very close to winning had he got one. I don’t think the trip is an issue with this horse as it could be with some of the others. Michael Halford does very well with his runners in Dubai and I am hopeful of a big run from Certerach tomorrow. He could be a very nice price as well considering there are horses in here with much bigger reputations. 4.25 Meydan Music Chart I backed Shuruq last time out and I thought she was going to win as she was travelling the best coming into the final couple of furlongs but she was outstayed by stablemate Music Chart. With the extra furlong here I don’t see how she can reverse the form so I am going to side with Music Chart. The biggest danger may well come from the Mike de Kock trained Emotif who he thinks is very smart. She has only raced once but beat some experienced rivals on her debut by 4 lengths and could really be anything. She did however suffer a setback when she first came over to Dubai, which ruled her out of the trial. That puts me off slightly so I think it’s safer to side with Music Chart who already has that win under her belt and should improve for the step up to a mile. 3.50 Meydan El Estruendoso As much as I like Hototo, I think he could be vulnerable in the closing stages even with Fallon doing the steering. I am going to take a chance on the Mike de Kock trained El Estruendoso. He was well beaten in the Guineas trial but he should come on plenty for that run. The switch to turf should also suit considering he well on his debut on turf. I actually don’t think this race will take much winning. There are maybe a handful that have a genuine chance of winning this race IMO and he is certainly one of them. Much will depend on Hototo from stall 1. If he is allowed to dictate the pace then he could prove tough to pass. My selection is poorly drawn in 11 but Soumillion has plenty of experience around this track so that is not a problem. De Kock believes this horse will get further in time so I would expect him to be finishing off his race well. Whether he gets up in time is another matter but I am confident of a good run.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.50 El Estruendoso 2pts win @ 6/1 Bet365

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Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 4.25 Music Chart 3pts win @ 11/4 Ladbrokes

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Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 5.00 Certerach 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (BBOTD)