CPO's class 3+ racing thread

[cpo]

Hey guys, Been here before with this racing thread malarkey but coming into the new year I am going to only back in class 2 and above races. I have found this year I have had much more success with the better racing whether it be on the flat or over jumps so I thought I may as well concentrate my efforts just on these races. I do like to look at past trends for races and I often find it much easier to whittle down big handicaps using trends. I don't expect to have a bet in every race that fits into this category as you will often find plenty of short priced favourites in small fields which isn't my cup of tea. That being said, there will be a few along the way that I will back at a short price. I hope this will also cut down the amount of bets I have and will also give me a few days off at the start of the week when there isn't much good racing on. It's the big meetings that really gets the blood pumping so hopefully I can make a little profit next year while enjoying the great racing. There is plenty of good racing coming up in the last few weeks of the year so I thought I may as well start now. I will start with a bank of 200pts and all bets will be between 1-5pts depending on how much I fancy something. Usually all bets will be placed the night before but certainly my selections will be up the night before... Chris :ok

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 1.45 Sandown Southfield Theatre 2pts win @ 5/2 Bet365 Jonjo is one stable that I can never get right but I do feel his horse here is worth taking on with the Paul Nicholls trained Southfield Theatre. I feel both horses are closely matched on a line through the exciting "The New One" as you can find bits of form that would suggest there wouldn't be much between my selection and Taquin du Seuil. ST is yet to run over hurdles but he is being pitched straight into grade 2 company after an impressive bumper win at Cheltenham back in October on his first start for Paul Nicholls. The stable must clearly believe he has plenty of ability pitching him straight in at the deep end. Similar comments can be made in regards to the Donald McCain runner in the field but I prefer the bumper form shown by the Nicholls horse. Nicholls has won this twice since 2004 and Nicholls operates at a 25% strike rate at the track which is mightily impressive. Ruby Walsh takes the ride and he himself is in great form at the moment operating at a 32% strike rate over the last 14 days and with a 30% strike rate at the track. The horse races in the same colours as the once very promising hurdler Sam Winner and they could have found themselves another decent animal. He clearly has a tough race on his hands where it is hard to rule out any of the horses completely. The favourite has a favourites chance after his very good run behind the Nicky Henderson trained My Tent Or Yours. A repeat of that performance would see him go very close but like I said above, I find Jonjo hard to catch right. Le Bec was impressive last time out but he did make a few mistakes and he meets very different ground here. Dunlough Bay showed marked improvement on his first start for Paul Webber but I fancy him to struggle here against some more promising types. Tough race to call as all of these are open to improvement but I just fancy Southfield Theatre to be too strong now stepping up in distance for his hurdles debut. Not an overly confident selection as you just don't know how he has schooled over hurdles but I was impressed with his win last time out and he could be a decent animal.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 2.10 Aintree Big Fella Thanks 2pts win @ 7/1 Bet365 My early thoughts on this race were to go with the Paul Nicholls trained Join Together but I now feel it is worthwhile sticking with something with form over these fences. The Becher tomorrow is going to be an absolutely gruelling test in the conditions and one I fancy might just relish the challenge is Big Fella Thanks. He is now trained by Tom George which is to me is a big positive and although he unseated on his first start for the trainer after a 567 day break, he must hold every chance of running well here given his record over these fences. He has had 3 runs in the National, resulting in a 6^th, a 4^th and a 7^th place, which is very impressive. I don’t think he gets the National trip but he clearly relishes jumping the National fences. This 3m2f on heavy ground should be right up his street as he has plenty of form at around 3m and has ran well on heavy ground in the past. Tom George is in decent enough form at the moment, as is Paddy Brennan. West End Rocker should go well off a 5lb higher mark than when winning this race last year but I would prefer to take him on this time around. It will take a monumental effort from Ballabriggs if he is to win off top weight and also from Hello Bud at the tender age of 14. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing anything trained by Peter Bowen in the race but I do feel the main threat will come from Join Together if he gets round and handles the ground. Another one that interests me is In Compliance who is Dessie Hughes’ representative in the race. He has a good record with his runners and has taken this race twice. He finished a good 5^th in the National last year and will handle the ground. He hasn’t won for a while however and was pulled up on his return to action but I wouldn’t let that put me off. This may well have been the target for this horse and I would expect a decent run from him. I hope Big Fella Thanks is none the worse for his fall last time out but money came for him last time out, which suggests he still retains his ability. He has been well backed again for this race and I reckon he will run a good race over fences he excels over. 2.30 Sandown Monte Cavallo 1pt EW @ 8/1 Boylesports Don’t fancy going win only on this horse here as the favourite looks a horse well ahead of the handicapper is the most likely winner of this race. His form was given a boost again today when the 2^nd from his latest win, won a decent race at Sandown today. Still I don’t really like backing favourites so I will take him on with the Rebecca Curtis trained Monte Cavallo. He is still relatively lightly raced over hurdles but has shown some decent form. His 6^th last time out behind Raya Star was a great effort and I think it says a lot that Barry Geraghty takes over tomorrow from a 10lb claimer. He probably does have to find a little more to take this but he has shown form on soft ground and heavy ground 2 runs ago on the flat. Only once has he finished out of the frame in 6 runs over hurdles, which came last time out in listed company. That was a stronger more competitive race than this one and his prominent running style should see him go well here in the conditions. 1.25 Sandown Kasbadali 1pt EW @ 16/1 PaddyPower Oliver Sherwood looks to have a more obvious chance in this race with Arkose but I think this horse is interesting reverting back to hurdles after 2 disappointing chase runs. He was highly progressive when last seen over hurdles earlier this year and ended his campaign with a good win at Ascot over 3m. Thomas Garner was on that day and he is back on today for only his 2^nd run on the horse. He claims a valuable 7lbs, which is a positive, but he will need all the help he can get in the testing conditions. The heavy ground is a big worry for this horse as he has never encountered it. He is a horse that likes to go right handed so the track should suit. He has raced at the track before where he finished a creditable 3^rd but if handles the ground tomorrow then he could sneak into the places.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Not exactly the start I was looking for but the drift on Kasbadali was most welcome. He actually returned 33/1 and only went down by half a length to be beaten into 2nd. Monte Cavallo ran well enough to finish 5th in his race and Big Fella Thanks ran another good race over the National fences to finish 3rd. He travelled like the most likely winner of the race but just got outstayed but the brilliant Hello Bud. I was pleased with the race as 3 of the horses I mentioned finished in the first 5. Yesterday Southfield Theatre wasn't good enough on the day but he may do better on better ground but the winner was very impressive. Over the 2 days I have actually made a small profit thanks to Kasbadli placing today at 33/1 of 1.25 points.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 6.00 Sha Tin Dunaden 2pts win @ 5/2 William Hill I do fancy this horse to follow up here after winning the race last year. He ran respectably in the Melbourne Cup and he has been handed a good draw for this race. The race looks no harder than last year and he does look the pick of the foreign challenge. He should get the race run to suit with a couple of potential front runners in the field and I would expect him to be finishing off better than anything int he race. 7.50 Sha Tin Ambitious Dragon 2pts win @ 7/2 William Hill This horse is one of my favourite foreign horses and he has plenty of talent. He did get beat last time out by Glorious Days but I would expect him to be spot on for this tomorrow morning. He has been handed a tough draw in 11 but that shouldn't pose any problems given his hold up style. He doesn't always deliver the goods but he is a multiple grade 1 winner and should go very close in this. 8.30 Sha Tin Carlton House 1.5pts EW @ 10/1 Boylesports California Memory is the obvious starting point in this race having won this race last year but this is a race that has been dominated by the European challenge in recent years and I fancy the Queens horse to do the business tomorrow. He hasn't been at his best in recent starts but a return to 10f should bring the best out of him as both of his career wins at graded level have come at 10f. He also likes quick ground which is a positive and he is well drawn tomorrow in 3. Ryan Moore takes the ride and I fancy him to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts over a mile.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 1.45 Cork Foildubh 2pts win @ 6/1 Bet365 Taking a chance on this consistent horse who ran well last time out to finish just 8 lengths behind Flemenstar and just over a length behind Big Zeb who always runs well fresh. I think it was a good effort from Foildubh and a repeat of that performance could see him in the shake up here. He is a quick jumper and he travels well so he could put plenty of pressure on his opponents jumping. I would expect a much better performance from Realt Dubh in this race after one costly error cost him last time out. Willie Mullins has won this race 5 years in a row and he relies on Balzing Tempo but he is too short for me after a couple of good runs over hurdles. I think his ideal trip is over further so is worth taking on. The interesting one here is Days Hotel who has been off the track for over a year. He looked progressive when last seen taking a grade 2 chase but his fitness has to be taken on trust.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 2.25 Kelso Mortimers Cross 1pt EW @ 8/1 PaddyPower The favourite here is too short and I feel is worth taking on with this horse has proven stamina and has proven form on the ground. He has finished 2nd on his last 2 runs but his latest effort was a good one coming on the back of a 200 day break. He should come on plenty for that run and the jockey today takes off a very useful 7lbs. I don't really see why he is such a big price for this as he is very consistent and he jumps well. He has less to prove that others in the race and with 8 going to post, he looks a good each way bet.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Days Hotel was the one that got away today as I was so close to backing him instead of Foildubh. Just thought he might need the run today but he won very nicely and could be one to follow this season. Foildubh continues to run well but I think he is just short of being top class. Mortimers Cross did the business nicely though and drifted out to 12/1. He showed tremendous fight to grind it out and hold off Captain Americo. Made a small profit from my 3 bets this morning from the top class racing in Hong Kong. As the weeks go on you will realise that I do love a bet on the top class foreign racing. Dunaden could never get involved in his race and he probably suffered from an sedate early pace. Ambitious Dragon done the business nicely and turned the form around with the favourite. Carlton House never really looked like landing a blow but California Memory won very easily. I will include any each way bets as win bets as I will never back anything each way lower than 5/1 so there will mostly be some sort of small profit returned form the bet. Probably update the stats every Sunday. Bets - 9 Wins - 3 Staked - 19 Returned - 34.65 Profit - +15.65 SR - 33.3% ROI - 82%

[mowgli77]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Good luck with this. I try to stick to class 3 and above if I can. There are sometimes a few decent sorts hanging around in the low level (class 4 and class 5) handicaps and I usually try make a note of decent sorts I've seen in maiden races. I just get the feeling that in the better races most of the horses are trying rather than the old dogs that are just running down their handicap marks until they are ready to strike. The thread I ran years ago was listed class and above and made me a few quid. Nice returns so far, all the best for the rest of the thread. :ok

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

Good luck with this. I try to stick to class 3 and above if I can. There are sometimes a few decent sorts hanging around in the low level (class 4 and class 5) handicaps and I usually try make a note of decent sorts I've seen in maiden races. I just get the feeling that in the better races most of the horses are trying rather than the old dogs that are just running down their handicap marks until they are ready to strike. The thread I ran years ago was listed class and above and made me a few quid. Nice returns so far' date=' all the best for the rest of the thread. :ok[/quote'] Cheers mate, yeh I think there is too much going on with lower grade stuff that has started to put me off. You just know with the better racing that there will be much less of it going on, if any at all. Plus I prefer the better races anyway and prefer watching the best horses race. It also narrows down the amount of races for me to look at which can only be a good thing! Sprinter Sacre yesterday was simply unreal! I can see him scaring plenty of horses off this year and running in very small fields all year which is a shame...rather like Frankel.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 2.30 Cheltenham (Saturday) - Astracad 2pts EW @ 14/1 BetVictor Looking at the field, I am quite happy to take on the 2 favourites straight away. No 4 year old has EVER won the race with only one 5 year old winning the race back in 1966 which rules out Unioniste who isn't even in the race yet. Walkon has a history of going well fresh and that might just be the best time to catch him. That 2nd to Al Ferof was very impressive and a reproduction of that effort would see him go very close but there has to be a massive doubt over whether he can reproduce that run. I would prefer to take him on here in a race where the favourites don't have the best of recent records. When looking at the previous winners of this race, recent history would suggest that younger horses are favoured. Being a believer of trends for big races like this I am quite happy to get rid of anything aged 9+ straight away. Your also looking for a horse with a recent run so anything that hasn't run for over 30 days can be overlooked. Just one 8 year old has won this race since 2000 so the race has very much favoured inexperienced chasers aged 6 or 7. Once applying the trends to this race I am left with 3 horses but I suppose the trends are open to interpretation and depending on which you choose to use to rule out winners may leave you with different horses. The 3 I am left with are Nadiya De La Vega, Astracad and Quantitativeeasing. Only once since the race's inception in 1963 has a horse managed to win this race twice and that was actually very recently when Poquelin won this race back to back. It should prove very tough for Quantitativeeasing to follow up and I am happy to take him on after his recent disappointing run. Looking back at the previous winners of this race, I think its important to come into the race on the back of a good run. That leaves me with 2 horses trained by trainers in good form. Nicky Henderson has won this race 3 times out of the last 9 and although NTD hasn't won this race, he actually does have a good recent record in the race with several placed efforts, with his best efforts recently coming from Knowhere and Razor Royale who both finished 2nd in the race. Course form at Cheltenham is a big positive and both horses have won at the track. Astracad just edges it for me as I do think he will come on plenty for his recent return to action and I actually think he will be a better horse on soft ground. He is French bred which is a big positive when looking at recent winners of this race and there is every chance he will handle testing conditions should it come up soft or heavy on the day. His sire's progeny show a 20% strike rate for both soft and heavy ground which is quite high. He looks the type to improve this year and the step up in trip will suit. He has plenty of form around the track and I fancy him to at least make the places with the yard going very well at the moment.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 5.30 Kempton Storm King 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 Reasoning to follow...

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 5.30 Kempton Storm King 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 This looks a rather competitive handicap but the one that stands out for me is the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Storm King. I think he is still unexposed on the all weather and there should be more to come from him now returned to this track. His record at the track is very good having won here twice over CD and finishing a very good 4^th in a conditions race. He won a handicap here off 65 very easily and followed that up off 78 with another comfortable win. He was unflavoured by conditions in his latest race over CD but still managed a very creditable 4^th out of 11 where he was rated at least 10lbs inferior to anything in the race. His is now rated 16lbs higher than his highest winning mark but he proved last time out at Lingfield that his new mark is not beyond him. That race was a similar class 2 event and he went down by only half a length into 2^nd, finishing behind the in form Solar Deity. The winner that day got first run but Storm King finished with a real rattle. He took time to pick up that day but was flying at the finish so I think the longer straight at Kempton is much more to his liking. Jane Chapple-Hyam does well at the track and her horses are running well at the moment. Richard Hughes has been booked for the ride, and it looks like a good opportunity to get a winner on the board. There looks to be plenty of prominent racers in this, so I would be hopeful of them going a good clip up front. The quicker they go the better for my selection as he will be one of many to be flying at the finish.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Disappointing favourite in the end. The winner won well but I don't think Storm King was suited to being so close to the pace. He got caught out when the others quickened but he seemed to be staying on again at the finish. Can win them all but plenty of good racing tomorrow to get stuck into.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 1.55 Cheltenham Quartz De Thaix 2pts win @ 9/2 PaddyPower Interesting grade 3 in store here and there are 3 that look worth concentrating on but the one I fancy is the Venetia Williams trained Quartz De Thaix who has been progressing nicely this season. He has shown a liking to testing ground and the ground may well change by racing tomorrow as there is plenty of rain forecast. He has won both starts this season nicely and looks as there could be more to come from him with the trainer remaining in good form. He is a winner at the track over hurdles but looks to have improved for the switch to chasing and for a step up in distance. He jumps well, which could give him the edge in what could turn out to be a tight race. The main dangers look to be Midnight Chase and Bradley. I don't think Midnight Chase would appreciate much more rain but he is a course specialist and cannot be ignored. He was apparently spot on for his seasonal reappearance so its tough to know what sort of condition he will be in this considering his stable aren't in the best of form. Bradley the current favourite looks the main threat and he does have a good record at the track as well. He probably prefers it further so any softening of the ground would aid his chances. My selection does have to prove himself at this level but I think there is every chance of doing so in what looks a very open race.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.05 Cheltenham 2pts win Saint Roque @ 5/1 Bet365 + 0.5pt EW Kayf Aramis @ 25/1 Boylesports I backed Saint Roque last time out where he was very unlucky to be brought down when he appeared to be making his challenge. That was a weaker race than this one but he is in very good hands and had a breathing operation over the summer. Looking at his breeding he should be suited by the step up in trip and will not mind any deterioration in the ground. Harry Derham takes the ride and takes off 5lbs but he is already the bottom weight and I fancy he could be well ahead of his current mark of 118. Definitely one of the more interesting horses in this race for me. The other one I quite like in the race is Kayf Aramis. He finished 2nd in this race last year off the same mark behind a very well handicapped horse in Oscargo. This year he returns for another crack at this race having run poorly on his reappearance. He has improved over hurdles since being fitted with blinkers but they chose not to apply them last time out. They are back on tomorrow and the yard are going very well at the moment so I would expect a much better performance from him. He should come on plenty for the run and he looks a big price.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Not entirely sure if this race is going to go ahead but if it does... 2.30 Cheltenham Outlaw Pete 1pt EW @ 6/1 Ladbrokes There is another inspection at 10am but conditions are supposed to improve during the day with plenty of rain forecast so I would be hopeful of this race going ahead. Going each way with this one as I feel there are 3 in here with a very good chance of winning this. Uncle Junior may well have the best chance of winning this having won over CD by 11 lengths beating Balthazar King into 2nd and my selection into 3rd. Arabella Boy cannot be discounted coming from the Edna Bolger yard who has taken this race 5 times from the last 7 renewals. The one I like is Outlaw Pete who is proven over the distance and arrives here in good form. He would have taken the Cork Grand National had he not run out at the last fence and he finished a very good 3rd over CD last time out on very unfavourable terms. Today he gets a 16lb swing in the weights with Uncle Junior for that race and that could make a huge difference. The horse gets on very well with his young jockey Josh Hailey and has already recorded 3 wins with the young claimer on his back. Outlaw Pete has already beat Arabella Boy back in April this year in testing conditions so I expect there won't be much between them at the finish here.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 12.15 Cheltenham Rebel Rebellion 1pt win @ 7/1 Bet365 This horse ran well enough last time out to finish 4th behind Captain Conan. The horses that finished ahead of him that day are out and out 2 milers so it was no surprise to see him outpaced from around 2 out. The step up in trip here should suit him and he is still relatively lightly raced to suggest there could be more to come from him. That defeat behind Captain Conan was only his 2nd race over fences having won his first start over fences quite comfortably at Exeter. Combination of the ground and track should bring stamina into play today and he is definitely bred for stamina. Ruby is back on today and is 1 from 1 on the horse but connections can't be ignored in any races at this track. There are 2 in the betting much shorter here and were better over hurdles but there could be more to come from Rebel Rebellion now stepped up in trip. I will take my chances that he can upset the 2 fancied horses and cause a minor shock.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Ended the day with a small profit so can't grumble. Saint Roque was a non runner which is a shame as I did fancy him to run well. Outlaw Pete did the business for me but was maybe fortunate with his main rivals coming down. Quartz de Thaix ran a cracker to finish 2nd but was just outstayed by the pipe horse. Roll on tomorrow and my big bet on Astracad. Back later with a few more but it's back to Christmas shopping for me!

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 3.20 Doncaster Nataani 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 Think this horse is worth a chance here given his very consistent profile over fences. Since making his debut over fences he has only failed to finish out of the first 2 from 7 races and that came last time out in a very good handicap chase at Ascot. He lead for a very long way in that race but was passed by some high class horses such as Roberto Goldback, Duke of Lucca, Alfie Spinner and Poquelin after the 2^nd last. I would expect him to stay in front even longer here as the opposition is nowhere near as strong and the forecast good ground will be much more to his liking. To me this horse looks a cracking each way bet in this race given his consistent profile. Daryl Jacob takes the ride for the Jo Davis and he should be able to get competitive having been dropped 3lbs for that solid run at Ascot. 1.20 Cheltenham Pepite Rose 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Bet365 After looking through the field, there are not many horses in the race that have proven themselves on the ground so the one that could take advantage is the Venetia Williams trained Pepite Rose. She does have to put a very disappointing effort behind her in similar conditions at Ascot but I am willing to give her another chance. She has a very consistent profile and she does have 2 wins to her name on heavy ground so I don’t put the ground down as an excuse for her defeat last time out. It was her 2^nd run back after a break when finishing well-beaten last time out so maybe she just found it coming too soon. Venetia actually had a winner at the track today so her yard continues in good form. I would like to see a good run from Shooters Wood in this race, as it would boost the form of Astracad running later on. All that being said I am hoping for a much better run from Pepite Rose tomorrow as she has proven form on heavy ground and travels very powerfully through her races.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 1.45 Lingfield Court in Motion 4pts win @ 6/4 Bet365 I fancy Court in Motion to turn the tables with the Venetia Williams trained horse here. He probably paid for making a couple of jumping errors in that race and narrowly got beat into 3rd by just over 4 lengths. He followed that up with a very promising effort to finish 2nd behind Dynaste last time out over a trip too short for him. Stepping back up in trip here should suit and I expect him to be tough to beat. Ground will pose no problems for my selection as he has shown decent form on it last year when bolting up by over 20 lengths in a grade 2 event.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 12.55 Navan Simenon 2pts win @ 15/8 BetVictor This horse has to put a very disappointing effort behind after running poorly returning to jumps last time out but he could prove to be the classiest of these and I am willing to give him another chance here. He won 2 good handicaps in the summer on the flat and also ran respectably upped to grade 2 and grade 1 level. He handles heavy ground and Willie Mullins has won this race twice in the last 4 years. He may have just needed that run last time out to adjust to hurdles so I will give him another chance here to confirm himself as a player at graded level over hurdles. 1.25 Navan Pont Alexandre 2pts win @ 11/4 Bet365 I think its interesting this horse is as short as short as he is considering he is up against Don Cossack who has been mightily impressive so far and is currently top of the betting for the Supreme Novices. This will be his first run since coming over from France and connections are wasting no time pitching him straight in at the deep end. Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride him, which is a tip in itself, and he could throw down a big challenge to the favourite. Don Cossack is the most likely winner of the race but I don’t like backing odds on and favourites have a poor record in this race. 3.25 Navan Union Dues 2pts win @ 2/1 BetVictor Looking at the previous winners of this race I was surprised to not see Willie Mullins listed in the last 10 years. Then I looked at the races and he actually hasn’t had many runners over the years in this race. You have to go back 2007 for the last time he had a runner in this race so I think it’s interesting he has chosen to put Union Dues in the race. He won on debut very comfortably but on different ground. He along with a couple of others could be anything but Willie Mullins is traditionally very good with bumper horses and he has plenty to choose from but has chosen this one to represent him here.

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Wel l the last 3 days have bee interesting to say the least. On Friday Saint Roque was the horse I was most interested in seeing but was a non-runner. Quartz de Thaix was heavily backed on the day and looked the likely winner between the last 2 fences but was just out battled up the hill by the Pipe trained Master Overseer. I actually looked at that one the night before as the Pipe yard have an excellent record in the race but was put off because of his poor reappearance effort. Kayf Aramis ran well for a long way but was just not good enough to keep up with the younger progressive legs of those that passed him. Outlaw Pete however ensured a small profit on the day thanks to his brilliant performance in the Cross Country. His main market rivals fell but he won very nicely and would be of interest lining up in the race at the festival come March. His young jockey clearly gets the best out of him and it was a good win. Yesterday wasn't as good but still came out level. Astracad was my main hope but the ground maybe went against him. I thought he would handle it looking at his pedigree but he looked as though he didn't take to it. The favourite was a trends buster and has made me think twice about following trends in the future. He could just turn out to be a very good horse! Pepite Rose was a non runner and Nataani ran well enough for a long way but never looked like getting involved. Court in Motion won nicely for Emma Lavelle to cap a good day for her and he got me out of trouble by landing a nice bet. Today was much better with 2 from 2 over in Ireland and taking on 2 well fancied odds on shots and getting them beat. Simenon was a non runner but Pont Alexandre looked very classy. He led all the way and never looked like getting beat today. Don Cossack was not making any impression on him when falling and he could go on to bigger and better things this year. Union Dues also won very nicely in the bumper and he can be a real force in bumpers this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he was one of the better bumper horses from this yard. Both horses drifted out as well, which was an added bonus. Bets - 19 Wins - 7 Staked - 42 Returned - 69.85 Profit - +27.85 SR - 36.8% ROI - 66.3%

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Ante-post RSA chase - Dynaste 5pts win @ 5/1 PaddyPower 1/4 odds 1,2,3 Dynaste has looked an absolute machine since turning his attention to fences. The form of both of his starts over fences have been franked this weekend with both Unioniste and Court in Motion winning. It's hard to not get carried away with his performances so far as he has looked imperious both times. He put Fingal Bay in his place with ease and looking through the current RSA betting, I don't see anything in the field that could pose a threat. Boston Bob at the moment is the current 2nd favourite but I am happy to take him on. Come race day I feel Dynaste will be much shorter than his current 5/1 so fingers crossed he gets there in 1 piece. To me opposition is thin on the ground so I am happy to get on at this early stage. It's a race that Martin Pipe won twice in the 90's and David looks to have a major contender to notch his first RSA.

[robertob]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Well done Chris, fantastic stuff today. Pont Alexandre looks a really interesting prospect now, totally agree. Nice profit for your thread already anyway. :ok

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

Well done Chris' date=' fantastic stuff today. Pont Alexandre looks a really interesting prospect now, totally agree. Nice profit for your thread already anyway. :ok[/quote'] Cheers mate, its always nice to start something like this with a few winners so your not playing catch up. I thought he was very impressive today... certainly one to watch for the season. Can't go wrong backing Mr.Mullins over in Ireland :)

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread Early start for the thread this week with a class 2 event at Newbury tomorrow. I like the look of Restless Harry but just waiting for prices to become available

[cpo]

Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread 2.25 Newbury Restless Harry 3pts win @ 11/4 Bet365 Restless Harry is interesting on his 3^rd start this season having run terribly behind Tidal Bay over hurdles and then running well enough at Ascot behind Minella Class. He was a high-class hurdler with plenty of very good form to his name and did have 2 runs over fences last year. The form of them 2 races is very strong having finished placed behind both Join Together and Teaforthree who are favourites for this years Grand National and Welsh National respectively. He is another one that won’t mind the conditions having won on heavy ground a couple of times during his career. He was however quite disappointing last time out finishing 4^th of 5 but would have been last had Shuil Royale not fallen. He also jumped out to his left at some fences, which is another worry but a return to a left-handed track may help. He does have form at Newbury over hurdles and he should come on for that run so I expect him to be involved. To me he is the most likely winner of this race and he does get 7lbs from his main market rivals, which is another, positive. Rose of the Moon is the horse in form and he comes here on the back of a couple of good wins over fences. He had a breathing operation over the summer and it looks to have improved him. He has also moved to David O’Meara, which could be another reason for his improvement. He was very impressive on his chase debut winning by 21 lengths but he was entitled to win last time out, as he was the best horse in the race by some distance. That race was just 8 days ago but that shouldn’t be a problem, as he didn’t have a hard race. He will however find this race much tougher as there are a few very good horses contesting it. I think he is the most likely danger to my selection but I just prefer the claims of Restless Harry who has shown most of his best form on similarly soft ground and was the best of these over hurdles. Tullamore Dew is hare to weigh up here, as he got no further than the 4^th fence on his return to action at Ascot. He has a history of going well fresh so it would have been interesting to see how he would have fared in that competitive grade 3 event as his 3 previous runs to that were very disappointing. Before that however, he was in very good form finishing 2^nd to Medermit and Mamlook in separate races and also finishing an excellent 3^rd at the festival behind Divers. I have no doubts that he has the class to win this but I have to question his current well being and I would rather go against him here. The stable is not in the best of form and they are actually 0 from 32 at the track. He is also a 10 year old and could be vulnerable to the younger legs of his opponents. Trifollet gets his first run outside of hunter chases here but I don’t think he will be good enough. His best form has come on better ground and he is returning from a lengthy absence. He was pulled up on his last 2 starts and I would rather take this one on going for rookie trainer Andrew J Martin. Stoney’s Treasure returns from 397 days off the track and I think he may just need this race judging from his previous efforts when returning from an absence. He will have no problems with the ground having won on heavy ground at Warwick but he has disappointed plenty of times in his career when sent off favourite. He returns to action with Alan King in good form but I just can’t see him winning this against race fit rivals.

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Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread World Hurdle - Tidal Bay 1pt EW 14/1 >Bet365 - 3 places 1/4 odds Risky bet as he may not even go for this but if he does then he will be much shorter come race day. Big Bucks and Quevega not running leaves the door wide open and Tidal Bay looks a pretty good option to me. I fancy Paul Nicholls will want to win this race having won this race the previous 4 years with Big Bucks. Tidal Bay looks the most likely entrant for Nicholls as Zarkandar will surely go for the Champion Hurdle after his win last time out. Tidal Bay at 14’s is a risk worth taking as there isn’t much in current betting that I would fear. He proved last time out there that is still plenty of ability in the old boy, finishing a brilliant 3^rd behind Bob’s Worth under top weight. He is loves it around Cheltenham and I would fancy him to go close if he does indeed go for the race.

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Re: CPO's class 2+ racing thread

2.25 Newbury Restless Harry 3pts win @ 11/4 Bet365 Restless Harry is interesting on his 3^rd start this season having run terribly behind Tidal Bay over hurdles and then running well enough at Ascot behind Minella Class. He was a high-class hurdler with plenty of very good form to his name and did have 2 runs over fences last year. The form of them 2 races is very strong having finished placed behind both Join Together and Teaforthree who are favourites for this years Grand National and Welsh National respectively. He is another one that won’t mind the conditions having won on heavy ground a couple of times during his career. He was however quite disappointing last time out finishing 4^th of 5 but would have been last had Shuil Royale not fallen. He also jumped out to his left at some fences, which is another worry but a return to a left-handed track may help. He does have form at Newbury over hurdles and he should come on for that run so I expect him to be involved. To me he is the most likely winner of this race and he does get 7lbs from his main market rivals, which is another, positive. Rose of the Moon is the horse in form and he comes here on the back of a couple of good wins over fences. He had a breathing operation over the summer and it looks to have improved him. He has also moved to David O’Meara, which could be another reason for his improvement. He was very impressive on his chase debut winning by 21 lengths but he was entitled to win last time out, as he was the best horse in the race by some distance. That race was just 8 days ago but that shouldn’t be a problem, as he didn’t have a hard race. He will however find this race much tougher as there are a few very good horses contesting it. I think he is the most likely danger to my selection but I just prefer the claims of Restless Harry who has shown most of his best form on similarly soft ground and was the best of these over hurdles. Tullamore Dew is hare to weigh up here, as he got no further than the 4^th fence on his return to action at Ascot. He has a history of going well fresh so it would have been interesting to see how he would have fared in that competitive grade 3 event as his 3 previous runs to that were very disappointing. Before that however, he was in very good form finishing 2^nd to Medermit and Mamlook in separate races and also finishing an excellent 3^rd at the festival behind Divers. I have no doubts that he has the class to win this but I have to question his current well being and I would rather go against him here. The stable is not in the best of form and they are actually 0 from 32 at the track. He is also a 10 year old and could be vulnerable to the younger legs of his opponents. Trifollet gets his first run outside of hunter chases here but I don’t think he will be good enough. His best form has come on better ground and he is returning from a lengthy absence. He was pulled up on his last 2 starts and I would rather take this one on going for rookie trainer Andrew J Martin. Stoney’s Treasure returns from 397 days off the track and I think he may just need this race judging from his previous efforts when returning from an absence. He will have no problems with the ground having won on heavy ground at Warwick but he has disappointed plenty of times in his career when sent off favourite. He returns to action with Alan King in good form but I just can’t see him winning this against race fit rivals.

He won very nicely in the end but required a few cracks with the whip at his jumps to keep his mind on the job. Very pleased with the price I got with him seeing as he went off 5/4 favourite. Last 3 bets on the thread have won now which is pleasing!