bobsyerunkle Posted February 18, 2005 Share Posted February 18, 2005 Hi all, new to the forum but not new to gambling, though not rich from it either. I have been more successful with the footy, so I am going to try a system out..apologies if this has been tried and tested before, I'm certainly not trying to steal anyones thunder. OK, to qualify for selection, Home team not to have won last home game but either won last away game or drew with any top 4 team (top2 in scotland) Away team not to have won last away game Home team to be higher in table and higher on current form table ( stats:last 8 games, though if say 4-2-2 for both teams - no bet. So this throws up 4 matches, although Bolton is an FA Cup game, so i will not count this in Wolves, Notts Co and Stenhousemuir I will use online bookies for combined odds and probably betfair for singles 100 pts bank staking 20 % each bet rounded to nearest full point So Bet 1 20pts treble odds of 4.81 available with 2 online bookies :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted February 18, 2005 Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Bobs system sounds a good idea, can I ask a few things though a) are you betting on the home team? and b) why home team who have not won last home game? good luck with it mate:hope be warned of the wrath o mr onewmore, he might give you a hard time, dont worry its just an initiation ritual :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted February 18, 2005 Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Bobs system :rollin Now then! - I think I have my own thread now to put my particular brand of bollox into. No - I suppose we must say good luck here and Bob's yer uncle mate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winrew Posted February 18, 2005 Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Bobs system Good luck anyway Bob......:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 19, 2005 Author Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Bobs system Thanks for the words of encouragement , guys. In answer to the above, we are backing the home team and why?, Well, this type of bet hits the 'banker who let me down for the roll up', even the likes of Chelsea, Man U , Arsenal Celtic and Rangers don't win every single home match. So this system is trying to catch those teams, obviously playing well enough ( hence winning the last away game), but who slipped up at home previously against 'supposedly' inferior opposition. To be honest, I typed up the first post in a hurry last night, the Witch was due in from work and she will start throwing knives if she finds out I'm interested in betting again. I have to delete my bleedin internet history and everythin......sad isn't it? So back to staking, I did say I was starting with 100 points , betting 20% , this is in fact my online account opened with 100 quid, I will be betting 20% or a minimum of £20, but for the sake of the thread I will start with 10 pts in the kitty, backing 20% or 2pts minimum. Oh and one more filter which i forgot to mention, if a team is worse than 2/5 then it is discounted, purely on the theory i have that if I am betting on a double then I aim to double my money, 2 at 2/5 only returns 96% which is almost there, so shorter odds...no chance. This filter probably stops Chelsea being included for their next home game after David James' fantastic save at the Bridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 19, 2005 Author Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Bobs system ....as I said I was in a hurry yesterday, so to add to the post on selections, the three qualifiers are Wolves 4/6 Notts Co Evs Stenhousemuir 4/9 2 pts treble These are combined best odds of 4.81 with totalbet and ukbetting, I don't have an account with either , I will be getting slightly worse odds but for the thread I will use oddschecker or if there is a single selection I may use betfair if odds are more favourable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted February 19, 2005 Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Bobs system how about some cover on the singles? just sounds like you have a good selection policy but trebles are often let down by one sodding team i find Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted February 19, 2005 Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Bobs system Have to agree with you there bruise. rather than having a 10pt treble i would rather go for three 10 point singles and then maybe a small bet on the treble aswell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted February 19, 2005 Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Bobs system for example you could have 20% of bank on the treble, then 20% on each single. still leaving you 20% in the bank should all go pearshaped. just my thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 19, 2005 Author Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Bobs system I'll see how it pans out for now, if I'm on a loser after 4 or 5 bets I may restructure, though I don't think it will throw 3 up too often, there seems to be a higher than normal percentage of ' good homers' today. I wouldn't be too surprised if some weekends there are ' no selections' at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 20, 2005 Author Share Posted February 20, 2005 Re: Bobs system WOLVES 2 - 2 :( NOTTS CO 1 - 1 :( STENHOUSEMUIR 3 - 2:) What a pish poor start !!!:o 1 out of 3 ( just my luck to fancy Wolves so much they let me down for a treble on my own fancies for the day too - me thinks I'll leave alone any system choices for my own 'fancies' bet in future) P/L -2 pts Well, I have just done my stats for Tuesday and Wednesday, the system has thrown up 3 for tuesday and 1 for Wednesday. My Tuesday treble will be Bristol City ( v Oldham) Doncaster ( v Barnsley) Exeter City ( v York) I will research the odds tomorrow or tuesday morning, likewise for my wednesday selection, which is Sheffield Wednesday ( v Peterborough) Hopefully I can get a decent price on Betfair for the single, as it is possible tho probably unlikely it will be discarded for being shorter odds than 2/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 20, 2005 Author Share Posted February 20, 2005 Re: Bobs system Early signs not looking good for wednesday on wednesday, current best price on betfair is 1.31, which i think is worse than 1/3, hopefully it may improve closer to the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 21, 2005 Author Share Posted February 21, 2005 Re: Bobs system Best odds for Tuesdays game for the treble are Bristol City 4/7 Doncaster 11/10 Exeter 4/6 total odds 5.5 ( Hills) Looking at the odds for the Donny/Barnsley Yorkshire derby, I think I will revise my bet, still staking my (£20) 2pts, but now into a trixie, 3 x 0.5 pts double 0.5 pts treble the wednesday single on sheffield weds is a bet now as best odds of 8/15 can be found , currently improved on betfair to 1.5 ( 1/2) so I will wait to see if the layers get more generous before putting my 2 pts on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 23, 2005 Author Share Posted February 23, 2005 Re: Bobs system Tuesday's results Bristol City 5 -1 :D Doncaster 4 - 0 :D Exeter 0 - 1 :( 0.5 pts dbl returns 1.75 I got £17.50 back for my £20 , but still a loser !! Starting bank 10 pts Current bank 7.75 pts P/L - 2.25 pts Wednesday Only one qualifier, Sheff Wed (v Peterborough) Best online odds were 8/15, managed to get 1.56 on Betfair 2 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 23, 2005 Author Share Posted February 23, 2005 Re: Bobs system Mixed the odds up when i posted before tuesday's games, Bristol were 4/6 and not 4/7, Exeter were 4/7 not 4/6, hence I collected 17.50 for my fiver double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 24, 2005 Author Share Posted February 24, 2005 Re: Bobs system Wednesday result Sheff Wed 2 - 1 :D 2pts @ 1.56 profit 1.06 (after 5% commission ,Betfair, deducted) My £20 on betfair returned 2 pence less than the best fixed odds of 8/15, maybe I need to work out returns after commissions , but the 1.064 profit would have been 1.066, and then rounded up to 1.07 , so I lost out....but ain't complaining , a winner's a winner. Starting bank 10 pts Current bank 8.83 pts Profit/Loss - 1.17 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 25, 2005 Author Share Posted February 25, 2005 Re: Bobs system This weekend the system has cancelled out all games except 1, Chesterfield ( v Peterborough ) 2 pts @ 4/5 ( totesport ) Betfair currently slightly better odds but worse once 5% commission is taken . As fate would have it , the system is backing Peterborough to lose twice in 4 days, hopefully less narrowly than their 2 -1 defeat to Sheff Wed on wednesday :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 25, 2005 Author Share Posted February 25, 2005 Re: Bobs system I think I ballsed up my maths after wednesday, I think it should be Starting bank 10 pts Current bank 8.81 P/L - 1.19 pts If anyone works it out differently, plmk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted February 28, 2005 Author Share Posted February 28, 2005 Re: Bobs system Saturday result Chesterfield 1 - 3 :( Starting bank 10pts Current bank 6.81 pts P/L - 3.19 pts I can honestly say this is the first bet of the system where I didn't put my money where my mouth is, just didn't fancy it. Which brings me to the point and reasoning to add one more filter. Whilst Chesterfield have been picking up points away from home, at home their form is bleedin awful, not winning at home for 3 months, therefore this selection should really have been a nonstarter. I think it is sensible to add a filter which shall ignore a team which hasn't won two out of its last 6 home games ( 5 in reality as the main selection criteria is home teams that failed to win the last home game) I was thinking of ignoring any teams to lose two consecutive games in a row for the system, as the system collected on Peterbro losing in midweek, but I shall let that one ride for now, though if it occurs again............. Back later or tomorrow after i see if we have any midweek qualifiers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 4, 2005 Author Share Posted March 4, 2005 Re: Bobs system Midweek - Only one match qualified for selection but was counted out due to the odds , Celtic beating Dundee 3 - 0 at odds of 1/7, Back later after doing the maths for the weekend games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 4, 2005 Author Share Posted March 4, 2005 Re: Bobs system Two teams qualify for selection this saturday, the two points bet will be spread between 2 x 0.7 pts singles and a 0.6 pt double Queens Park ( v Stenhousemuir) 13/10 William Hills Accrington Stanley ( v Forest Green) 4/7 Stan James the double is best priced with William Hills paying 3.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 7, 2005 Author Share Posted March 7, 2005 Re: Bobs system Saturday's results Queens Park 0 - 0 Accrington 2 - 2 :wall Loss - 2pts Starting Bank 10 pts Current Bank 4.81 pts Another crap day, this system looks to be going tits up after only a few weeks, though I 'll stick it out until the end of the season at least. One possible angle to look at this system , with ten selections so far, only two have lost. Maybe there is scope to lay the opponents rather than back the selection, obviously smaller profits but this would have given an 80 % strike rate on single bets, any suggestions from the forum ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 7, 2005 Author Share Posted March 7, 2005 Re: Bobs system RIGHT !! I've had a couple of minutes to think, brainwave coming through, I will run alongside this system a P/L statement starting with £100 in the bank, LAYING the opponents of my selections on Betfair. Anyone with knowledge of a system like this could help me here, for staking purposes is it more sensible to have a level staking plan, i.e a liability of £10 ( 10 % of the bank) per selection? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 8, 2005 Author Share Posted March 8, 2005 Re: Bobs system Midweek games - No qualifying teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 11, 2005 Author Share Posted March 11, 2005 Re: Bobs system Saturday 12th March two teams qualify QPR (v Watford) 6/5 totesport Wycombe (v Chester) 4/5 corals 2 x 0.7 pts singles 1 x 0.6 pts double ( 3.63 - totalbet/ukbetting ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 13, 2005 Author Share Posted March 13, 2005 Re: Bobs system Results QPR won 3 - 1 :D Wycombe won 4 -2 :D Total stake 2 pts Total returns 4.97 pts Profit 2.97 pts Starting bank 10 pts Current bank 7.78 pts P / L - 2 .22 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 28, 2005 Author Share Posted March 28, 2005 Re: Bobs system Back from hols, to update from 19th march, I posted Norwich to be layed on my lay ststem which runs in sync with this system, thus making Bolton a selection for that game. Likewise for the lay system, I am unsure if there are any selections missed since. Bolton ( v Norwich ) 2pts @1.63 ( these odds were taken from the footie tipping comp forum) Bolton 1 - 0 :D Winnings 3.26 Profit 1.16 Starting bank 10 pts Current bank 8.94 P/L - 1.06 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 28, 2005 Author Share Posted March 28, 2005 Re: Bobs system Today's games throw up 3 qualifiers Bournemouth ( v MK Dons) 1.74 Barnsley ( v Walsall ) 1.79 Hereford ( v Northwich Vics) 1.54 3 x 0.5 pts singles, 1 x 0.5 pts treble ( 4.41 - the gaming club) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted March 30, 2005 Author Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: Bobs system results Bournemouth lost 0 -1 Barnsley won 3 - 2 0.89 pts Hereford won 4 - 0 0.77 pts stake 2pts returns 1.66 pts loss 0.34 pts current bank 8.60 pts loss 1.4 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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