neilovan Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November Was looking at Top 8 teams playing other top 8 teams Man City's away record 2011 Played 7 W3 (Tottenham, Man United, Newcastle) .... D1 (Liverpool) .... L3 (Chelsea , Everton, Arsenal) 2010 Played 7 W1 (Fulham) ..... D2 (Arsenal, Tottenham) .......L4 (Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Man United) 2009 Played 7 W1 (Chelsea) ......D3(Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal)........L3 (Man United, Tottenham, Everton) So they have only won 5 of 21 games against top 8 opposition away in three seasons. 8 teams playing 7 away games each against top8 opposition... means there are 8x7 games like this in a season or 56 games 2007 there were 13 away wins in 56 (23% away wins in this top8 v top8) 2008 there were 13 away wins in 56 2009 there were 15 away wins in 56 (26%) 2010 there were 9 away wins in 56 (16%) 2011 there were 14 away wins in 56 (25%) The two best away teams in terms of winning games against top 8 opposition are Arsenal and Liverpool ( each winning 7 of 21 in 09,10,11) So the trend, and the numbers indicate that it is pretty difficult to beat another top8 team away from home. 3 things. Benitez cannot afford to start his job at Chelsea with a mauling. He will make Chelsea a better defensive unit (both he and de Matteo like a 4-2-3-1, so it's a minor adjustment to tighten them up) He will find the way to get Torres playing facing the goal, and running onto the ball ( imagine Torres and a finesse player like Berbetov combining) The easiest adjustment is to play a 4 4 2 formation when the opposition have the ball. They have to cut down the wide space and force the opposing wing-backs inside, especially now that Terry is missing. They do that half the battle is won.... City are amazingly slow, cautious starters away from home. Last season they never lost a match in the 1st half away (won 7 with 12 draws). This season they have drawn 4 and lost 1 1st half.... to liverpool (1-0). I am taking 3 bets here 2nd 45 minute result is 15/8 on bet365 for Man City to win it (5 units) 2nd half with more goals than 1st is 20/21 bet365 (5 units) 1-1 Draw result whcih is 11/2 on bet365. (1 unit) Obviously I cant win all three, but I can win the 1st 2, and I'll put the 3rd one in a gamble accumulator) For those that are taking Man City to win you may wish to look at Winning margin 1 goal 15/4 bet365 ( I am not taking) Good luck, whatever your choices, Neil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November I was tempted to back City earlier in the week but the whole Benitez saga changes the dynamic of the match for me. I'd still say there's some value on City tipping 3.00 odds but again, I dont think the new manager effect can be underestimated here, especially a cautious and tactically astute one like Benitez. With European matches in the midweek I think this one could fizzle out in the second half and a draw wouldnt shock me. Chelsea have been struggling but may seem rejuvenated today, while City seem to be picking up domestically and hitting some form. I'll have a small punt on the draw here for some interest in the match. Chelsea vs Man City: DRAW @ 3.530 (Pinnacle:1pt) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinnyno10 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November Tricky game to get involved in.. Goals would be my first instinct but then again its Benitez v Mancini? Waiting for the line-ups before i get involved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruscopico Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November You'd hope that Chelsea will fly out the traps trying to impress the new boss and its notable that Man City haven't been ahead at HT in any of their away games. 57% of Chelsea's home goals have come in the first half while 71% of Man City's away goals have come in the 2nd. Small stakes on this one for obvious reasons but the 19/10 for Chelsea to be winning at halk time looks a decent bet, may also have a go on Chelsea HT, Draw FT at 14/1 (both with Hills) good luck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November You'd hope that Chelsea will fly out the traps trying to impress the new boss and its notable that Man City haven't been ahead at HT in any of their away games. 57% of Chelsea's home goals have come in the first half while 71% of Man City's away goals have come in the 2nd. Small stakes on this one for obvious reasons but the 19/10 for Chelsea to be winning at halk time looks a decent bet, may also have a go on Chelsea HT, Draw FT at 14/1 (both with Hills) good luck all City have been behind at the half just once in their last 24 away games, so you are going against the trend here. They are the only team in the whole of European major league football to not lose a 1st half in the 2011 season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricochet Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November Generally these games seem to be very high scoring. I don't it will be 8-8 as someone mentioned but I do think it will be a score draw here. In 6 Chelsea home games they have scored in all 6 and kept just 2 clean sheets. Citeh have played 5 away games so far, keeping only 1 clean sheet and failing to score on just 1 occasion. Both have had tough UCL games mid-week so may be fatigued as is often the case (Champions League hangover!) so neither will be at their best. I can see Rafa keeping things tight as he will not want a heavy loss to one of Chelsea's main rivals in his first game in charge and we all know that Mancini is not the most adventurous manager, especially away from home. I can see a tight game and with so much attacking flair on show and neither side proving to be formidable this season I think there will be goals. 10pts - Draw @ 3.5 SkyBet 5pts - Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.5 StanJames 5pts - Correct Score 2-2 @ 15.0 StanJames Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruscopico Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November City have been behind at the half just once in their last 24 away games, so you are going against the trend here. They are the only team in the whole of European major league football to not lose a 1st half in the 2011 season Ouch! Lesson learnt, don't rush bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reverand_bookmaker Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November With Kompany and clichy both out, if city go with this 3-5-2 formation Mancini has been dabbling with it could spell trouble for them, which he may well do as they didnt do all that badly against Real but not sure it will be as effective with Lescott in for Kompany. They are more of an attacking threat with Silva back in the side able to link the play between midfield and forwards and Maicon looking dangerous on the wing. Chelsea have their own defensive problems, when Ivanovic played centre with Cahill recently they looked more solid than at anytime with Luiz/Cahill so can see benitez playing Ivanovic with one of the other 2, probably Luiz, with azpilcueta and cole on the wings. Chelsea have good central midfield options but can see Benitez playing two sitting midfielders Ramires and Mikel with Oscar, Mata, Hazard and Torres in the forward areas. You can see Benitez setting his team up not to lose as usual. I will want to see what way Mancini has set his team up before putting a bet on, if he plays 4 at the back I think Chelsea will get the better of the midfield battle and the teams cancelling each other out. If he plays 3 at the back I can see city and Chelsea both scoring. Either way I think a draw is good bet with BTTS cover depending on team set-ups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hutcho_CFC Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November Kompany starts. Tevez doesn't which is great news as far as we chelsea fans are concerned. Chelsea has the standard RDM lineup, torres starts, and after 2 years of hoping i can't see him turning up but you never know, David luiz starts which is worrying... So basically Mazacar, its down to you... Hopefully marin can get some mins of the bench for the first time this season, has he looked pretty good in pre season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lola86 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November back to basics on this one, new manager syndrome? like him or not, right man for the job or not, either way i rate this chelsea team and i think rafa has a good record. just going on the notion that this will make or brake chelsea season, as in if the players arnt going to go out and play some football to the bes of their abilty today they should not be gettin paid. i expect a good performance from chelsea. man city i never feel comfertable away anyway. torres on fire hopefully! chelsea to beat man city @ 2.5 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November City have been behind at the half just once in their last 24 away games, so you are going against the trend here. They are the only team in the whole of European major league football to not lose a 1st half in the 2011 season Still think you may be ok, because Chelsea have been starting great in games, while City are dead slow in the 1st half. May be a day were stats are useless :) and get broken. I am hoping that the 2nd half is where the goals and action is .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November 2nd 45 minute result is 15/8 on bet365 for Man City to win it (5 units) 2nd half with more goals than 1st is 20/21 bet365 (5 units) 1-1 Draw result whcih is 11/2 on bet365. (1 unit) Neil. Fantastic stuff, caught the treble ...... :wall Nice to pick 3 games where 5 of 6 teams can't score a goal (Liverpool, Swansea, Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle ... maybe I expect too much for 300 Million pounds of 'talent') :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November I was tempted to back City earlier in the week but the whole Benitez saga changes the dynamic of the match for me. I'd still say there's some value on City tipping 3.00 odds but again, I dont think the new manager effect can be underestimated here, especially a cautious and tactically astute one like Benitez. With European matches in the midweek I think this one could fizzle out in the second half and a draw wouldnt shock me. Chelsea have been struggling but may seem rejuvenated today, while City seem to be picking up domestically and hitting some form. I'll have a small punt on the draw here for some interest in the match. Chelsea vs Man City: DRAW @ 3.530 (Pinnacle:1pt) WIN Looked a draw from start to finish, happy with that as I never really back draws/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reverand_bookmaker Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November With Kompany and clichy both out, if city go with this 3-5-2 formation Mancini has been dabbling with it could spell trouble for them, which he may well do as they didnt do all that badly against Real but not sure it will be as effective with Lescott in for Kompany. They are more of an attacking threat with Silva back in the side able to link the play between midfield and forwards and Maicon looking dangerous on the wing. Chelsea have their own defensive problems, when Ivanovic played centre with Cahill recently they looked more solid than at anytime with Luiz/Cahill so can see benitez playing Ivanovic with one of the other 2, probably Luiz, with azpilcueta and cole on the wings. Chelsea have good central midfield options but can see Benitez playing two sitting midfielders Ramires and Mikel with Oscar, Mata, Hazard and Torres in the forward areas. You can see Benitez setting his team up not to lose as usual. I will want to see what way Mancini has set his team up before putting a bet on, if he plays 4 at the back I think Chelsea will get the better of the midfield battle and the teams cancelling each other out. If he plays 3 at the back I can see city and Chelsea both scoring. Either way I think a draw is good bet with BTTS cover depending on team set-ups. WIN again, nice weekend this. pity a correct score double on this and the liverpool match was as predictable a bet at long odds as your likely to see all season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November Over 3.5 @ 2.71 :(. 30-57 (-17.48) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricochet Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Re: Chelsea v Manchester City > Sunday 25th November Generally these games seem to be very high scoring. I don't it will be 8-8 as someone mentioned but I do think it will be a score draw here. In 6 Chelsea home games they have scored in all 6 and kept just 2 clean sheets. Citeh have played 5 away games so far, keeping only 1 clean sheet and failing to score on just 1 occasion. Both have had tough UCL games mid-week so may be fatigued as is often the case (Champions League hangover!) so neither will be at their best. I can see Rafa keeping things tight as he will not want a heavy loss to one of Chelsea's main rivals in his first game in charge and we all know that Mancini is not the most adventurous manager, especially away from home. I can see a tight game and with so much attacking flair on show and neither side proving to be formidable this season I think there will be goals. 10pts - Draw @ 3.5 SkyBet +25pts 5pts - Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.5 StanJames -5pts 5pts - Correct Score 2-2 @ 15.0 StanJames -5pts Total = +15pts :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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